Minnesota River Basin Turbidity TMDL Hydrological Simulation Program/FORTRAN Modeling Results: Scenario 4 Chuck Regan Barr Engineering
Scenario 4: Key Elements Perennial Vegetation Increase in the Chippewa Watershed Redistribution to lower reaches (except in Yellow Medicine and Hawk Creek) Controlled Drainage: <1% slope Water Storage On-field storage of runoff About half of the first 2 inches
Scenario 4: Runoff Relationships Non-Infiltrating Runoff Routed to Surface Storage Routed to Receiving Water 1 inch ½ inch ½ inch 1.5 inches ¾ inch ¾ inch 2 inches 1 inch 1 inch 3 inches 1 inch 2 inches
Scenario 4: Modeling Results Measurements of Reduction Loads (tons of sediment) Concentrations milligrams of sediment/liter of water Tons of sediment/millions of gallons of water Flows Gallons Cubic feet Acre-feet
Relationships Total Maximum Daily Load Concentration based standard Concentration = Load/Flow or Concentration x flow = Load TSS (mg/l) is used as a surrogate for turbidity (NTUs)
Pomme de Terre R Otter Tail Douglas Grant Traverse Morris Glenwood Minnesota River Big Stone Ortonv ille Lac Qui Parle Madison Lac Qui Parle R Pipestone Ivanhoe Stevens Yellow Medicine R Lyon Lincoln Marshall Murray Benson Montevideo Granite Falls Chippewa R Pope Swift Chippewa Hawk Cr Yellow Medicine Redwood R Cottonwood R Kandiyohi Renville Olivia Redwood Falls Willmar Minnesota R Redwood Cottonwood Brown Watonwan R St. James High Island Cr Sibley Nicollet New Ulm Watonwan Martin Fa irmon t McLeod Gaylord St. Peter Carver Cr Bevens Cr Blue Earth R Mankato Blue Earth Blue Earth Carver Le Center St. Paul Chaska Hennepin Scott Le Sueur R Shakopee LeSueur Waseca Freeborn Faribault Rice Waseca Steele Dakota
Comparison of Simulated Annual Loads: Yellow Medicine River Outlet Baseline Scenario 4 Thousands of Tons of Clay+Silt+Sand 3 25 2 15 1 5 53% 59% 22% 39% 6% 25% 36% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Year Reduction for 1993-25: 5% Base=.67mt; S4=.33mt 3% 29% 4% 33% Baseline Load 2-25= 118, tons 48% 37%
Comparison of Simulated Annual Loads: Redwood River Outlet Baseline Scenario 4 Thousands of Tons of Clay+Silt+Sand 3 25 2 15 1 5 53% 38% 24% 4% 7% 11% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 21% Year Reduction for 1993-25: 43% Base=.62mt; S4=.35 mt 43% 11% 23% 17% 7% Baseline Load 2-25= 27, tons 37%
Comparison of Simulated Annual Sediment Loads: Le Sueur River Outlet Millions of Tons of Clay+Silt+Sand 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 43% 43% 27% 3% Baseline Scenario 4 12% 27% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Year Reduction for 1993-25: 47% Base= 4.22mt; S4= 2.22mt 33% 67% 5% 46% 22% 53% 57%
Comparison of Simulated Annual Sediment Loads: Minnesota River at Jordan Millions of Tons of Clay + Silt + Sand 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 59% 45% 35% 44% 43% Baseline Scenario 4 36% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Year Reduction for 1993-25: 49% Base= 15.7mt; S4= 8.mt 39% 54% 43% 42% 38% 65% 56%
Load Analysis Summary Scenario 4 results in a ~5% reduction in sediment loads for most watersheds Reductions vary year to year Generally higher in wetter years Le Sueur River delivers ~25% of the load observed at Jordan Yellow Medicine and Redwood Rivers deliver ~5% of the load
Concentration Based Standard Must account for variability in flow Total Suspended Solids is used as a surrogate for 25 NTUs Western watersheds: 5 mg/l Redwood and Cottonwood: 7 mg/l Southern Watersheds: 9 mg/l Mainstem Minnesota River: 1 mg/l
Major Reaches of the Minnesota River Flows by Source (21) 9, 8, Middle Reaches Western Reaches Eastern Reaches 7, 6, CFS 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jun-Jul 5 Aug-Sep 5 Oct-Nov 5 Dec-Mar 5 Apr-May 5 3 2 1 Yellow Medicine at Granite Falls Calibration Scenario 4 Turbidity Surrogate Jun-Jul 1 Aug-Sep 1 Oct-Nov 1 Dec-Mar 2 Apr-May 2 Jun-Jul 2 Aug-Sep 2 Oct-Nov 2 Dec-Mar 3 Apr-May 3 Jun-Jul 3 Aug-Sep 3 Oct-Nov 3 Dec-Mar 4 Apr-May 4 Jun-Jul 4 Aug-Sep 4 Oct-Nov 4 Seasonal Period Dec-Mar 1 Apr-May 1 Average Seaonal Simuated TSS Flow Weighted Mean Concentration (mg/l)
Jun-Jul 5 Aug-Sep 5 Oct-Nov 5 Oct-Nov 4 Dec-Mar 5 Apr-May 5 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Redwood at Redwood Falls Calibration Scenario 4 Turbidity Surrogate Jun-Jul 1 Aug-Sep 1 Oct-Nov 1 Dec-Mar 2 Apr-May 2 Jun-Jul 2 Aug-Sep 2 Oct-Nov 2 Dec-Mar 3 Apr-May 3 Jun-Jul 3 Aug-Sep 3 Oct-Nov 3 Dec-Mar 4 Apr-May 4 Jun-Jul 4 Aug-Sep 4 Seasonal Period Dec-Mar 1 Apr-May 1 Seasonal Simulated TSS Flow Weigthted Mean Concentration (mg/l)
Jun-Jul 5 Aug-Sep 5 Oct-Nov 5 Dec-Mar 5 Apr-May 5 Jun-Jul 4 Aug-Sep 4 Oct-Nov 4 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Le Sueur at Rapidan Calibration Scenario 4 Turbidity Surrogate Aug-Sep 1 Oct-Nov 1 Dec-Mar 2 Apr-May 2 Jun-Jul 2 Aug-Sep 2 Oct-Nov 2 Dec-Mar 3 Apr-May 3 Jun-Jul 3 Aug-Sep 3 Oct-Nov 3 Dec-Mar 4 Apr-May 4 Seasonal Periods Dec-Mar 1 Apr-May 1 Jun-Jul 1 Average Seasonal Simulated TSS Flow Weighted Mean Concentration (mg/l)
Aug-Sep 4 Oct-Nov 4 Dec-Mar 5 Apr-May 5 Jun-Jul 5 Aug-Sep 5 Oct-Nov 5 Jun-Jul 4 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Mn River at Jordan Aug-Sep 2 Oct-Nov 2 Dec-Mar 3 Apr-May 3 Jun-Jul 3 Aug-Sep 3 Oct-Nov 3 Dec-Mar 4 Apr-May 4 Seasonal Period Calibration Scenario 4 Turbidity Surrogate Dec-Mar 2 Apr-May 2 Jun-Jul 2 Dec-Mar 1 Apr-May 1 Jun-Jul 1 Aug-Sep 1 Oct-Nov 1 Average Seaonal Simuated TSS Flow Weighted Mean Concentration (mg/l)
Sediment Concentration (mg/l) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Le Sueur River Outlet Sediment Concentration Comparision: 21 Baseline Sediment Concentration Scenario 4 Sediment Concentration Baseline Flow Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Date 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2
Minnesota River at Jordan Sediment Concentration Comparision: 21 Baseline Sediment Concentration Scenario 4 Sediment Concentration Baseline Flow Sediment Concentration (mg/l) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Date 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Flow (CFS)
Le Sueur River Outlet Sediment Concentration Comparision: 23 Baseline Sediment Concentration Scenario 4 Sediment Concentration Baseline Flow Sediment Concentration (mg/l) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan-3 Feb-3 Mar-3 Apr-3 May-3 Jun-3 Jul-3 Aug-3 Sep-3 Oct-3 Nov-3 Dec-3 Date 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Flow (CFS)
Minnesota River at Jordan Sediment Concentration Comparision: 23 Baseline Sediment Concentration Scenario 4 Sediment Concentration Baseline Flow Sediment Concentration (mg/l) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Jan-3 Feb-3 Mar-3 Apr-3 May-3 Jun-3 Jul-3 Date Aug-3 Sep-3 Oct-3 Nov-3 Dec-3
Minnesota River at Jordan Flow Comparision: 21 Flow (CFS) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Baseline Flow Scenario 4 Flow Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Date
Summary Scenario 4 results in a ~5% reduction in sediment loads for most watersheds Reductions vary year to year Generally higher in wetter years Sediment loading is dominated by episodic events, usually in the spring (summer, fall) BMPs usually provide bigger reductions during events The watershed outlets and mainstem Minnesota would meet the turbidity standard most of the time, under Scenario 4 conditions.