Emission Projections National RPO Meeting St. Louis, MO November 6, 2003 Presented by: Gregory Stella VISTAS Technical Advisor Emission Inventories
VISTAS - Regional Haze Timeline Regional Haze Rule 1999 2000 2001 VISTAS Planning Air Quality Monitoring Emissions Inventory Atmospheric Modeling 2002 2003 PM 2.5 Designation Feb/Dec 2004 PM 2.5 & Haze SIPs Dec 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 BART Sources Strategy Design Reasonable Progress Goals Policy Interpretation Baseline and natural conditions Base year and future year strategies Base year and future year air quality States Develop Haze SIPs
VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Deliverables Draft 08/18/03 Jan-Mar 2004 Define BART sources June 2004 Identify BART controls Aug 2003: Emissions Inventory Base 2002 Dec 2003: Revised Em Inv Base 2002 Mar 2004: Draft Em Inv 2018 July 2004: Revised State Em Inv Base 2002 Sept 2004: Revised Em Inv 2018 Oct-Dec 2004: Control Strategy Inventories Nov 2003: Met, Em, AQ model testing 3 episodes Dec 2003: Modeling Protocol Sept 2004: Annual Base Year Model Runs Dec 2004: Annual Run 2018 Jan 2005: Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes Jan-Jun 2005: Control Strategy Runs 2018 Mar 2004: CART:select sensitivity episodes Apr 2004: DDM in CMAQ Oct 2004: Sensitivity Runs 2018 3 episodes July-Dec 2005: Observations Conclusions Recommendations Optional Before Jun 2005 Other Inventory: e.g. Power Plant Turnover Optional After Jun 2005 Model Runs: e.g. Power Plant Turnover State Regulatory Activities
VISTAS Plan: Emission Inventories Objective: Provide inventories for modeling speciated PM-2.5 and regional haze State and local agencies review, revise 2002 base year inventory Draft delivered August 2003 Revised delivered December 2003 Based on data States will submit to CERR 2018 inventory (RFP closed October 31) Draft due Mar 2004 Revised due September 2004
Other RPO Inventory Plans Base Year Inventory (2002) Most looking at fall 2004 (after CERR submittal) Future Year Base Case Inventory Unplanned to date
EPA s New Modeling Platform EI, Models, and Analyses Base Year Emissions (2001) Future Year Emissions 2015 and 2020 now, but no 2018 scheduled To be available by PMTR final analysis Eventual coordination with Section 812 Study Under review by SAB Latest state-of-knowledge for growth & control http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/blueprint.html
Emission Projection Coordination Needs Common Inventories 2002 NEI Submittal RPO Data Exchange Format Canada & Mexico Common Future Year(s) 2010 (2009?) & 2018 Common Base Case Controls Clear Skies, Nonroad Diesel, BART, etc. Common Growth Methods EGAS, IPM, NONROAD, VMT, etc.
Key Issues to Resolve Methods for projection Model or ad hoc calculation Available growth & control information Federal, Regional, or Local Regulation Growth Rates EGAS 4.0 (+), New VMT methods Model specific input data IPM, MOBILE6, NONROAD, CMU-NH3 Source specific data Enforcement action & consent decrees Retirements & planned units
Proposed Plan (Preliminary Base Case ) Use as much existing information as possible Start with latest available projection documentation and control assumptions EPA s Nonroad Diesel / HDD / Clear Skies or Preview of PM Transport Rule (PMTR) Use growth & control programs as starting point Make VISTAS-specific where local input available EGU, Non-EGU Point, Highway, Nonroad, NH3 Coordinate with other RPOs
Proposed Plan (Preliminary Base Case 2) Use stakeholder review for preliminary Base Case laugh test issues Are we *WAY* off on any factors? Example: Furniture Manufacturing in NC Enables cursory review of assumptions and tees up data for more extensive final Base Case development
Proposed Plan (Preliminary Base Case 3) What about BART? Identify sources by January 2004 Opportunity to include rough estimate of sources and controls in preliminary Base Case Define BART controls by June 2004 Fine tune for final Base Case Stakeholder participation in further identification of sources and controls
Proposed Plan (Final Base Case ) Build on preliminary Base Case Utilize interest groups by source sector Groups to review, assess, and modify Methods, models, and factors for projection No impact on preliminary Base Case generation or planned sensitivity runs
VISTAS Next Steps Award Projections RFP Initiate work in November Define Issues for Special Interest Teams EGU Non-EGU Point Agriculture Fires Mobile (On and Off-Road) Stationary Area
EGU Sources Special Interest Issues method for projection (IPM, Haiku, Facility provided, other?) growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs / emission rates base and future year BART identification shared generation demands planned units / capacity / retirements utilization rates typical operation for base & projection year usage of CEM stack parameters making sure correct variable stack parameters (hourly differences) changes in stack parameters due to scrubber application
Special Interest Issues (2) Non-EGU Point Sources growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs base and future year BART identification stack parameters making sure correct planned units / retirements
Agriculture Special Interest Issues (3) improved NH3 estimates from animal / crop operations growth rates / moratoriums temporal schedule for VISTAS states CAFOs
Fires Special Interest Issues (4) temporal and spatial distribution in base year typical fire inventory for use in base and projection year changes in fuel loadings / forest types
Special Interest Issues (5) Mobile Sources (On and Offroad) VMT or engine growth control programs I/M, LEV, RFP, fuel characteristics Vehicle/fleet mix Hybrid introduction Speed data Temperature application (same in base as is future) 3-D aircraft emissions nonroad distribution issues (e.g., CMV in WV) shipping lane information
Special Interest Issues (6) Stationary Area growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs base and future year PM transport factor application paved / unpaved road estimate improvements urban sprawl
Canadian Emission Projections Based on 1995 CAC version 2 Collaboration of EC and provinces & territories Still maintains point source confidentiality 2010 / 2020 Projections: Transport Modeling Province / source sector growth rates Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) report Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update, December 1999. National CAC forecast is the sum of the provincial and territorial forecasts Equivalent to a Control Case or Clear Skies Case (i.e., not yet on the books)
Canadian Emission Projections (2) Base Case was backed out Incorporates all the emissions reduction measures that are already in place Tier 1 and NLEV vehicles Tier 2 and heavy duty vehicle NMHC, NOx, PM standards Low sulfur on-road diesel and gasoline Inputs from provincial and territorial governments and private industry have been incorporated into the forecast
Canadian Emission Projections (3) Control Case includes: Canadian Standards for PM and Ozone Reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx Canadian Acid Rain strategy In both Base and Control, NH3 held constant in all years
Mexican Emission Projections No known inventories of projected Mexican data Most likely will hold constant in future years
Proposed Plan (To Work) Stakeholder participation a must! Nothing is better than local specific data VISTAS working with our sources to best define activity and emissions in our area Utilize other data (RPO/EPA/FLM) as available to aide in coordinated decisions Where can we coordinate IMMEDIATELY or preface our plans to allow coordinated effort?