Biomass Energy Benefits Jim Brainard National Renewable Energy Laboratory Sixth Forum California Biomass Collaborative Sacramento CA May 12, 2009 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
Mounting Evidence
Global Energy Solutions Are Enormously Challenging Energy Security Economic Secure supply Productivity Reliability Growth in demand Price volatility Vulnerability or Opportunity Environmental Impact Land and water use Carbon emissions
U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) 85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels Residential Domestic 67% Supply 105 Quads Fossil 85% Consume 100 Quads Commerical Industrial Imports 33% Nuclear 8% Renewable 7% Transportation 4
U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) >70% of primary energy for the transportation sector and >60% of primary energy for electricity generation/use is lost Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE. 5
U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) At midcentury, the U.S. used 1/3 of the primary energy used today and with greater overall efficiency.
Correlation between CO 2 Concentrations and Temperature The current concentration is the highest in 800,000 years, as determined by ice core data a The 800,000-year records of atmospheric carbon dioxide (red; parts per million, p.p.m.) and methane (green; parts per billion, p.p.b.) from the EPICA Dome C ice core together with a temperature reconstruction (relative to the average of the past millennium) based on the deuterium hydrogen ratio of the ice, reinforce the tight coupling between greenhouse-gas concentrations and climate observed in previous, shorter records. The 100,000-year sawtooth variability undergoes a change about 450,000 years ago, with the amplitude of variation, especially in the carbon dioxide and temperature records, greater since that point than it was before. Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the modern atmosphere are highly anomalous with respect to natural greenhouse-gas variations (present-day concentrations are around 380 p.p.m. for carbon dioxide and 1,800 p.p.b. for methane). b The carbon dioxide and methane trends from the past 2,000 years. Ed Brook, Nature 453, 291 (2008).
So, Energy/Environment Solutions Require: 4. Electric Energy Storage 5. Electricity Transmission and Distribution 6. Fuel Switching 1. Zero-net-emissions emissions Electricity Generation 8. Conservation 3. CCS 3. CCS 7. End-use Efficiency 2. Fuel Switching Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE. 8
Global New Investment in Clean Energy 1% of global fixed asset investment 10.5% of global energy industry infrastructure investment 2.5 times the size of commercial aircraft investment sector Adjusted for reinvestment. Geared re-investment assumes a 1 year lag between VC/PE/Public Markets funds raised and re-investment in projects. Source: New Energy Finance, IMF WEO Database, IEA WEO 2007, Boeing 2006 Annual Report
U.S. National Commitment to Biofuels Near-term Cost Goal Cost-competitive cellulosic ethanol Cost-competitive in the blend market by 2012 Longer-term Volumetric Goal EISA (Energy Independence & Security Act) 36 billion gallons renewable fuel by 2022 21 billion gallons cellulosic + advanced biofuels Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) goals for biofuels penetration are based on specific GHG reductions from the fossil fuel it replaces Biomass-based diesel 50% reduction Advanced biofuels 50% reduction Corn grain-based ethanol 20% reduction Cellulosic Biofuels 60% reduction
Sustainability meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." (1987 Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development ) Environmental Social Sustainable Economic
Defining the System Human Behaviors and Outcomes Natural Resources and Ecosystems Resources Impacts Systems and subsystems, temporal and spatial boundaries
Environmental Green House Gas Emissions land use changes Soil Resources conservation practices profit versus sustainability marginal land use Carbon Storage Sequestration
Environmental Water Quality, Demand and Supply restoration Runoff Nutrient Contamination Ecosystem Diversity
Economic Distributed Economic Development local transportation limiting Global Markets strong links price volatility and risk Indirect Impacts non-sustainable practices Incentives and Disincentives
Social and Human Stakeholder Needs and Involvement new industry and paradigm new ownership models Health Effects air emissions Food versus Fuel Learning time
Verification and Certification Transparent, intuitive and practical diversity of characteristics, e.g. cultures, climates, geography uniform methodologies and principles Level playing field (including non-bioenergy solutions) Dynamic technology, infrastructure, economics, resources, behaviors Uncertainty
Benefits or Harm? Potential for both Innovation Change Incentives for innovation and change
Acknowledgements Center for Strategic Analysis at NREL Doug Arent Biological and Environmental Research DOE Office of Science Workshop Report on Biofuels Sustainability Many of my colleagues in the Chemical and Biosciences Center at NREL