What Drives Dairy Purchases at Retail Today and Tomorrow? Elite Producer Business Conference November 9, 2010
Session Goals I. Provide an overview of the current shopper and retail environment II. Demonstrate how a dairy manufacturer responds to consumer needs and preferences with marketing strategies and product development III. Communicate how grocery retailers perceive and respond to emerging consumer trends
Panelists Paul Weitzel, Managing Partner Willard Bishop Rich Snyder, Vice President Consumer and Trade Marketing Dairy Farmers of America John Larsen, Vice President Dairy, Refrigerated Safeway
Part I: Current Retail Environment
The Grocery Industry and Dairy s Contribution I. Channel Overview & Headlines II. III. IV. Emerging Shopping Behaviors Dairy s Contribution to Total Store Dairy Department Reinvention
Title Channel Overview & Headlines
Grocery Headlines Price and Value is King Retailers see no quick turnaround and tough economic climate ahead Concerns about price deflation exist Some looking to convert hi-lo stores to price impact formats Operations and Cost Containment is Top of Mind (Labor & Inventory) SKU Rat is Growing Complete brands are being eliminated Across the board cuts (10%-20% SKUs) from top grocers Fight for Share of Wallet and Trips Intensifies as Shopping Behavior Changes Shopper Marketing Continues to Grow in Importance Getting Closer to Your Customers and Consumers is More Important Than Ever
Channel Fragmentation Number of Stores Dollar Share Annual Sales (Millions) Total Traditional Grocery 40,205 47.5% $467,729.9 Traditional Supermarkets 26,693 41.3% $405,919.7 Fresh Format 856 0.8% $8,138.0 Limited-Assortment 3,360 2.4% $23,683.3 Super Warehouse 592 1.9% $18,426.6 Other (Small Grocery) 8,704 1.2% $11,562.3 Total C-Stores 150,704 15.4% $151,874.5 Convenience (w/gas)* 122,354 13.2% $129,849.8 Convenience (w/o gas) 28,350 2.2% $22,024.7 Total Non-Traditional Grocery 52,332 37.0% $364,342.1 Wholesale Club 1,304 8.0% $79,132.6 Supercenter 3,366 16.7% $164,103.8 Dollar Store 22,224 2.0% $19,750.2 Drug 21,572 5.5% $53,930.4 Mass 3,683 4.3% $42,380.6 Military 183 0.5% $5,044.5 Total All Formats 243,241 100.0% $983,946.5 *Does not include gasoline sales. Note: Includes sales only for merchandise typically found in a supermarket Source: Willard Bishop
No Real Growth for Traditional Grocery Supercenter Anticipated Compound Annual Sales Growth Rate vs. Inflation: 2009-2014 7.3% Limited-Assortment 6.5% Dollar 4.5% Drug 3.1% Wholesale Club 2.8% Convenience (with Gas) 2.5% Convenience (without Gas) 2.0% Military 1.7% Fresh Format Super Warehouse 1.0% 1.7% Food Inflation Compound Annual Rate: 1.9% Other (Small) Grocery 0.8% Traditional Supermarkets 0.2% Mass -6.7% Source: Willard Bishop
Non-Traditionals Will Grow 3% Pts 5 Year Market Share Forecast (Grocery & Consumables) 2009 2014 Dollar Share Number of Stores Annual Sales ($ Millions) Dollar Share Total Traditional Grocery 47.5% 40,027 $488,077 44.1% Traditional Supermarkets 41.3% 26,157 $413,500 37.4% Fresh Format 0.8% 1,024 $8,962 0.8% Limited-Assortment 2.4% 4,261 $33,999 3.1% Super Warehouse 1.9% 611 $19,526 1.8% Other (Small Grocery) 1.2% 7,975 $12,090 1.1% Total C-Stores 15.4% 148,975 $174,528 15.8% Convenience (w/gas)* 13.2% 120,950 $149,926 13.5% Convenience (w/o gas) 2.2% 28,025 $24,603 2.2% Total Non-Traditional Grocery 37.0% 59,577 $444,479 40.1% Wholesale Club 8.0% 1,350 $90,868 8.2% Supercenter 16.7% 4,077 $233,723 21.1% Dollar 2.0% 25,956 $21,146 1.9% Drug 5.5% 24,660 $63,185 5.7% Mass 4.3% 3,345 $29,988 2.7% Military 0.5% 188 $5,570 0.5% Total All Formats 248,579 $1,107,084 100.0% Note: Includes sales only for merchandise typically found in a supermarket Source: Willard Bishop
Emerging Shopping Behaviors
Emerging Shopping Trends Customer counts are down More consumers shopping multiple formats Basket sizes are down Fewer impulse sales Trading down to PL Increasing number of trip types Different shopping behaviors New demands
New Expectations New demands will require retailers to differentiate the center store, like the perimeter. Less duplication More personalization More localization More health & wellness More meal solutions New categories
High Occasions Per Buyer and Household Penetration Occasions Per Buyer and Household Penetration 18 16 90.6% 84.4% 90.5% 100% 90% Occasion per Buyer 14 12 10 8 6 16.6 15.0 11.6 69.3% 71.2% 67.1% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% HH Penetration 4 7.2 8.5 6.4 20% 2 10% 0 Milk Bananas Cheese Tomatoes Yogurt Apples 0% Source: 52 w/e 3/29/09, Food channel only, IRI Quarterly Panel; 2007 Annual Produce Operations Review, Progressive Grocer, 10/1/07.
Dairy Also Strong Contributor in Quick Trips Prevalence of Dairy In Basket (Share of Total Quick Trips) Average Dollars per Basket (Quick Trips) $18.42 Includes Dairy Product, 40% $16.77 All Baskets Baskets with Dairy Source: Based on 6.6 billion trips, Trip Typology:Trip Mission, IRI, Total US, Grocery, 52 w/e 5/25/08.
Dairy s Contribution to Total Store
Dairy s Contribution #1 in Net Profit Per Foot # 1 in Amount of Productive Space # 2 in ROII
Dairy = Biggest True Profit Contributor $120 True Profit Dollars per Base Foot $100 $100 $80 $60 $40 $38 $20 $16 $6 $0 -$20 Dairy Produce Grocery GM HBC -$2 True Profit is defined as: ((Sales Less Cost of Goods) + Trade and Terms) Less Activity Based Costs Source: Willard Bishop SuperStudy
Department Benchmarking Results $35,000 Composite Marginal True Profit Contribution (Center Store Departments) $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 Grocery Positive Slope = Making Money Flat Line = Break-even Negative = Losing Money $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Dairy Frozen Liquor GM HBC $0 SKUs Source: Willard Bishop 2009 Total Store SuperStudy (Kroger, Safeway, Stop & Shop and Jewel/Osco; Average Store Size= 65,000 Sq Feet, Weekly Sales= $657,000)
Dairy Provides One of the Best Returns on Invested Capital Department Three Key Leading Measures (Department Performance) Percent of SKUs Selling Less Than One Unit/Store/Week Average Days-of-Supply on Shelf True Profit Return-on- Inventory-Investment* Dairy 2.9% 7 $15.71 Packaged Deli 3.1% 15 $6.67 Frozen 10.0% 21 $4.24 Grocery 23.6% 23 $2.90 Deli & Foodservice 29.8% 11 $5.54 Bakery 30.7% 10 ($3.97) Meat 32.7% 10 $4.04 Produce 34.0% 6 $19.17 Seafood 41.0% 22 ($2.80) Floral 43.6% 15 $1.37 Liquor 43.8% 30 $1.55 GM 74.1% 51 $0.69 HBC 80.6% 60 ($0.33) * Annual True Profit (gross profit plus trade spending less ABCs) per dollar of inventory tied up on the shelf. ROII after paying for equipment, inventory, labor, warehousing, etc. Source: Willard Bishop SuperStudy
What s Holding Us Back? Available space in stores Operating expenses Labor budgets Inventory concerns Corporate alignment and long-term plan Capital expenditure budgets
Retailers Can Improve Total Store Profit By Re-allocating Underperforming Center Store Space to Dairy Projected Profit Impact Net Profit* Increase by Adding 24 Feet AGP $ Lost by Eliminating 24 Feet Dairy Grocery GM HBC One Store Weekly $821 ($9) ($114) ($47) One Store Annualized $42,692 ($491) ($5,932) ($2,435) Annual Division Level (125 Stores) $5.3 million ($61,425) ($741,520) ($304,395) Within each department, Willard Bishop identified the worst performing 4 foot sections by category. For example, 24 feet of grocery consists of: 4 ft. of CSDs, 4 ft. of Laundry, 4 ft. of Cereal, 4 ft. of Diapers, 4 ft. of Candy, and 4 ft. of Coffee. AGP (Adjusted Gross Profit) is defined as: (Sales less Cost of Goods) + Trade and Terms * Net Profit is the incremental Adjusted Gross Profit increase less the added costs (includes cost, such as, equipment depreciation, utilities, and maintenance) associated with 24 base feet of Dairy space over the existing dry shelf space. Source: Willard Bishop SuperStudy
Even the Worst Performing Dairy SKUs Contribute Gross Profit $ Contribution* Bottom 100 Dairy SKUs Bottom 1,500 Grocery SKUs or Bottom 1,100 GM SKUs or Bottom 1,700 HBC SKUs = * Includes all trade dollars, cash discounts, slotting, etc. Source: Willard Bishop SuperStudy
Title Dairy Department Reinvention
Dairy Department Reinvention Coalition (DMI, Kraft, Dannon) developed in 2006 to build a shoppercentric set of proven principles that can grow overall dairy department sales. The coalition set on a course to reimagine the way dairy is merchandised at retail based on new shopper insights and significant research and in-store tests. Research shows shoppers who have a more enjoyable shopping experience: Spend more time Purchased more products Results suggest we have a Billion $ dairy opportunity.
Reinvention Principles The coalition developed four design principles that take advantage of opportunities to elevate the role of dairy. CONTEMPORIZE the dairy environment and change shopper perception from old-fashioned to modern, relevant, fresh and new. DIMENSIONALIZE dairy in order to slow down shoppers by creating three-dimensional space, complete with cross-merchandising. RATIONALIZE the dairy shopping experience and engage shoppers by bringing organization and clarity to the different segments. INVIGORATE the dairy shopping experience in order to inspire shoppers by communicating the value, benefits and usage occasions of dairy products.
Reinventing the Dairy Aisle Helps to Improve Shopper Perception Across Many Key Shopping Dimensions 6.9 Shopper Response to Dairy Aisle Reinvention (Mean Response Based on a 7-Point Scale) 6.7 6.5 +4.6% +2.8% 6.3 +4.9% +8.3% 6.1 +11.5% 5.9 5.7 5.5 Overall Experience in Dairy Department Appearance Shoppability Modern Feel Approachability Before Reinvention After Reinvention Source: In-store shopper research related to total dairy reinvention, DMI, 2007/2008.
Reinvention Produces Strong Sales Gains Average Department Sales Lift* from Aisle Reinvention (Percentage Point Increase) 2.2 1.6 Units Sold Dollar Sales Source: Composite figures based on weighted averages from total dairy aisle reinvention tests at two retail chains, DMI, 2008/2009. * Based on comparing changes in post- and pre-install performance between test and control store groups.