Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment Implications of Paris on Low Carbon Transition State Secretary Lars Andreas Lunde Trondheim, 7 March
The Paris Agreement Turning point: Universal participation and enhanced efforts Goals: Global warming well below 2 degrees - pursuing efforts to 1,5 degrees Emissions peak as soon as possible Balancing emissons by sources and removals by sinks in the second half of this century Enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability Photo: Wikipedia Commons 2
Nationally Determined Contributions A starting point for steadily increased ambitions Collective stocktake every five years input for domestic review of NDCs 5 year ambition cycle gives a pathway to a low carbon future The emissions gap is still a big challenge The countries has the responsibility to ensure fulfilment of the Paris objectives Photos: Wikipedia Commons 3
Expected investments in renewables 2016-2040 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016 APAC APAC APAC $5,552 $5,552 $5,552 AMER AMER AMER $1,759 $1,759 $1,759 MEA MEA MEA $1,476 $1,476 $1,476 RoW RoW RoW $1,354 $1,354 $1,354 Europe Europe Europe $1,229 $1,229 $1,229 0 0 1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 4,000 4,000 5,000 5,000 6,000 6,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Coal Coal Gas Gas Nuclear Nuclear Hydro Hydro Wind Wind Solar Solar Other Other Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other 4
Renewables - installed capacity (GW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2016, IEA WEO 2016 Bloomberg, 2016 3,211GW 5,892GW IEA, Current Policies Scenario, 2016 1,883GW 1,211GW 2,534GW 1,472GW 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 IEA New Policies Scenario, 2016 IEA, 450 Scenario, 2016 5,235GW 3,320GW 3,236GW 2,334GW 1,319GW 1,401GW 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 5
Need for clear signals to ensure low carbon investments Necessary to mobilise private capital to cover global energy demand The private sector was a driving force for Paris. Wanted strong signals. Paris offers a long term vision and credible signals to both goverments and the markets Companies need reassurance that countries deliver on the NDCs G20 may also give important signals. 6
What can governments do to stimulate the green transition? Policies and measures should ensure that renewables are competitive in the energy market Fossil fuels subsidies equivalent to four times the level of support to renewables. Does not stimulate green energy transition. European Commission's winter package Clean energy for all. Aiming to stimulate energy transition. Looks also to consumers. Photos: Scatec Solar, Norsun Photos: Scatec Solar, Norsun 7
Norway's NDC and intention of joint fulfilment with the EU 40 % by 2030, compared to 1990. Intention of joint fulfilment. Implies that the EU Climate framework will be relevant also for Norway Covering both EU ETS and Effort Sharing for Non ETS sectors. Gives more systematic and predictable framework for Norwegian climate policy. EU ETS: Price signal will increase towards 2050. Transistion necessary for the ETS sectors industry and energy - to be competitive 8
Norway will be a low carbon society by 2050 Emission reductions of 80-95 % by 2050 Requires major transition of the Norwegian economy as a whole How to create green competitiveness? Goverment established expert comittee in 2015 to propose a strategy High involvement from the private sector: Leading companies from 11 sectors presented low carbon roadmaps. Shows that low carbon development is given priority! Reason for optimism also on a global level Photos: Wikipedia Commons, Fjellstrand, Jo Randen 9
Thank you for the attention. 10