Vito Colloquium on Vision on water resources monitoring in the 21 st century, Antwerpen, November 26, 2009 Water in the 21 st New vision for new century: challenges
Global Crises
Global water resources problems: LOOMING WATER CRISES?
Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) The cycle is changing? Increased risks? Growing vulnerability? More disasters? Less water for people? Crisis is looming? What crisis? Global or local? 4
First message: Humans are changing the global water system in a globally-significant way without.. adequate knowledge of the system and thus its response to change
U.S. Bureau of the Census Global change drivers Population growth, movement and age structures Geo-political changes and realignments Trade and subsidies Technological changes Climate change
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Richards (1991), WRI (1990) Global change impacts Global change is more than global climate variability/change It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions A constellation of changes, many global in domain For example, we see large changes in: Mackenzie et al (2002) Reid & Miller (1989) NOAA Vitousek (1994)
From: Steffen et al. 2004
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 1950 Analysis by Munich Re Data: U.N. Population Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 2015 Analysis by Munich Re Data: U.N. Population Division
GLOBAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES Relation between water availability and population
Some progress for drinking water: If the current trend continues, sub-saharan Africa will not reach MDG water target
Many countries not on track to reach MDG sanitation target
Water Cycling Deeply Embedded in Earth System Interconnections are Strong Change to One Part Reverberates Throughout The Global Water System
Climate change: What do we know? Global Mean Temperature have increased Greenhouse Gases play a role Reducing Emissions alone will not avoid impacts
Drought is increasing in most places The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002 The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI
The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical and Human Components
R15 T42 Model Resolutions T85 T170
IPCC Projections 2100 AD Global Temperature ( C) High Risk for Instabilities 6 5 4 3 N.H. Temperature ( C) 1 0.5 0-0.5 Lower Risk for Instabilities 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2 1 0
time (1000 years) GRIP (Greenland Ice Core Project - 1993) drilling a 3029 m long ice core in the central Greenland Temperature change (deviation) T ( 0 C) 1993 Megavolcano TOBA (Sumatra) erupted 2800 km 3 of materials (60 millions human beings)
Glacier melt in the Himalayas 10km 1989 1978 2000 1996
South Cascade Glacier (Washington State, USA) 1928
23-Aug 28-Aug 12 1998 1978 VERNAGTFERNER Discharge (m 3 s -1 ) 8 4 0 19-Jul 24-Jul 29-Jul 3-Aug 8-Aug 13-Aug 18-Aug (Source: Bayerische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Glaziologische Kommission)
Does the cycle accelerate?
WEST POINT ACADEMY THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND: CENTRAL PARK-NEW YORK
Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002 Flood Drought USA Mexico Haiti/ Jamaica Peru Uruguay Ecuador There is pressing need to develop advanced risk management on water hazard in order to secure human life and ensure sustainable socio-economic development and poverty alleviation. Bolivia Germany China Germany China Korea Austria Czech Russia France Afghanistan China Turkey Korea Senegal Nepal Bangladesh Ethiopia India Philippines Vietnam Sri Lanka Kenya Indonesia Kenya USA Micronesia
In summer 2002, extended flooding in Eastern Europe
15.0 Real GDP growth (%) 10.0 5.0 0.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0 Variability in Rainfall (Meter) Rainfall affects growth.. the case of Zimbabwe -5.0 Real GDP grow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) -10.0 Years Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
700% increase in water held by river systems Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans. History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction 1800 1900 1950 2000 2000 Stored Runoff < 2% annual flow 2 10 25 50 100 >100 Several years of residence time change in many basins Tripling of river runoff travel times globally (from 20 up to 60 days)
4,729 6,150 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,486 3,255 2,000 1,000 0 43 Ethiopia 746 South Africa 1,287 1,406 Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America Infrastructure gap: Water storage Water storage per person (m3)
Vörösmarty et al. 2000 Water Stress Changes to 2025 80% of future stress from population & development, not climate change! Correct Priorities? (E.g. 85% US global change research funding to climate and carbon) UNH
Water hazard as a major challenge Intensifying and increasing occurrence of water related hazard in many part of the world Serious concern on climate change such as extreme hydrologic events and sea level rising
FLOOD LOSSES IN FUNCTION OF GDP
Urban expansion taking place downward Underground flood risk Recent developments Long term risks are not experienced (Source: Herat, UNU) Fukuoka simulation At Hakata station Volume of water entered into underground space: 2,017 m3 (simulated volume) 1,320 m3 (total pumped water station)
Are the sediment loads of the world s rivers currently changing in response to the components of global change?
Human Fingerprint on Land-to-Ocean Linkages --Intercepted sediments that nourish our coastlines Coastal zone now gets 30% less sediment 700% increase in water held in rivers Tripling of river runoff travel times UNH Vörösmarty et al. 2003
Yellow River The evidence
750 000 km 2 (Source:Wang et al.(2006)) CAUSES OF REDUCED SEDIMENT LOAD) Soil Conservation 40% Climate Change 30% Reservoir Trapping 30%
Lack of data both quality and quantity for many rivers and aquifers is a major constrain in assessing changes Changes we face are due to various drivers e.g. population growth, land use change, migration, urbanisation and climate change It is important to address current problems with current variability Use regional approach not global. Develop adaptation strategies at the local level Little understanding of the storage and renewable groundwater resources, which will play a key role in future food production Climate Change and Water: Conclusions
ADAPTATION OPTIONS: MORE STORAGE MORE HYDROPOWER MORE GROUNDWATER USE MORE INLAND NAVIGATION
There is no sustainable development without adequate information about the state of the Earth and its Statement at WSSD environment
FRIEND : a global project The primary objective is to improve understanding of hydrological variability and similarity across time and space in order to develop hydrological science and practical design methods.
Precipitation
Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate Change (GRAPHIC) UNESCO IGRAC GWSP
High Technology Earth Systems Tools Satellite data Simulation models Geospatial analysis tools They show promise but
The data issue: a major source of risk and vulnerability in river basins The case of Africa Interconnectedness through data Local data networks: The ethical choice vs. The global needs to mimimize bias GEOSS: space and in situ observations Will data secrecy be gone? Will it be replaced by sharing? What is the way out of trouble?
From Potential Conflict to Co-operation Potential Water for Peace a contribution to World Water Assessment Programme
Aquifer Transboundary Issues
SO, WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WATER FOR THE 21 ST CENTURY?
LOOMING WATER YES, BUT CRISES
Part of the answer is WATER EDUCATION CAPACITY BUILDING AND
How to put water in the minds of people? The challenge we all have