Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP region Port Demand Analysis Center of Korea Maritime Institute
Korea Maritime Institute Shipping/Port Policies Establish national action plan for shipping and port sectors Develop policies for the development of industries related to shipping and port International logistics and cooperation in shipping and port sector Run International Logistics Investment Analysis Center and Port Demand Analysis Center Analyze trend and policies related to shipping, port and logistics Marine Policy/ Marine Environment Establish national action plan on marine policy Policy related to the development and use of marine resources Policy and management of marine territory including Dokdo island and Ieoh Island Policy related to preservation and management of marine space and marine ecosystem Integrated management of exclusive economic zone (EEZ) Fisheries Industry/ Fishing Community Establish national policy for fisheries and fishing community sectors Develop fisheries related policies and improve institution Use and develop coastal area efficiently Strategy to respond to fisheries negotiation under FTA and WTO/DDA Enter overseas fisheries market and handle international cooperation on fisheries
Port Demand Analysis Center(PDAC)
Forecast on Item-Specific Traffic Volume Forecast at Item Level Container Oil Compare with the previous forecast Coal Steel Iron Ore Car Other Ores Sand Cement Chemical Products Total traffic volume forecast at each port (30 trade ports + Other ports) Confirm port traffic volume forecast Reflect the forecast in port master plan General Goods Grains Wood Scrap Metal Compare with berth development plan * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Total Cargo in Korea CAGR: 3.4% 000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Oil 28% Steel/Iron Ore12% Coal 9% Car 5% Others 46%
Container Throughput in Korea Incheon: 2,377 Pyeongtaek Dangjin: 566 Ulsan: 385 Nationwide: 25,681 It is forecast that container traffic volume will be 31 million TEU in Korea and 23.5 million TEU in Busan port by 2020. Busan: 19,469 Gwangyang: 2,327 CAGR: 5.4% 000 teu * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Container Export/Import Full Container Export/Import Empty Container Economic Indicators (GDP, amount of seaborne) Difference between full container import and export, actual empty container Forecast on total export/import container traffic volume Analyze the share of each port Transshipment container for each port Coastal container for each port By area by sea route by port GDP of major trading partners Weighted moving average Port specific forecast on export/import container volume Port-specific forecast on transshipment container Port-specific forecast on costal container Port-specific forecast on total container traffic volume * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Coal For generation Import of bituminous coal/ Plant capacity Survey and reflect bituminous coal use plan of each plant Import For steel making Bituminous coal import volume/ Crude steel production capacity Anthracite consumption amount/ Crude steel production capacity Portspecific forecast on coal volume cement production Time series analysis Coastal Time series analysis Export Account for 0.04% Excluded from forecast It is forecast that coal traffic volume in Korea will reach 18.4 million tons by 2020. * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Coal Taean Thermal Power Dangjin Thermal Power Yeongheung Thermal Power Boryeong Thermal Power Seocheon Thermal Power Honam Yeosoo Thermal Power Yeongdong Thermal Power Hadong Thermal Power Donghae Thermal Power Samcheonpo Thermal Power Others, 24.4% Oil, 39.5% Car, 6.6% Coal, 12.9% CAGR:6.6% Steel, 8.8% Iron ore, 7.7% 000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Steel * Source: WSA(World Steel Association) Korea has the 5 th largest steel production capacity as a major steel producer in the world Pyeongtaek Dangjin Port Gwangyang Port Pohang Port Okpo Port steel export cargo is predicted by utilizing crude steel production capacity of steel making companies located near ports
Steel CAGR:0.7% 000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Steel cargo volume in Korea will be 94.6 million tons by 2020, growing 0.7% on annual average reflecting recent downturn in the steel industry
Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Automobiles Location of PDI businesses in surrounding areas Import Regression analysis Location of car production facilities in surrounding areas Major ports for automobile transshipment Export Export Import Regression analysis (New cars) Log trend analysis (Used cars) Analysis on the ratio of transshipment export/import traffic volume in export/import traffic volume Portspecific forecast on Automo biles volume Ports for new car ferries Coastal Others (Export/import, transhipment, coastal Recent statistics Unit load approach, weighted moving average, log trend, demand momentum
Automobile Production volume forecast * Source: IHS Automotive South Asia South America North America Middle East/Africa Japan/Korea Greater China Europe ( 000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Global automobile production volume forecast (IHS Automotive) and domestic automobile production volume and forecast are used for prediction
CAGR:1.4% 000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Automobiles cargo volume in Korea will be 73.4 million tons by 2020, growing 1.4% on annual average
Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Oil Petroleum Gas Refined Pertroleum Crude oil/pertrol -eum LNG production facility per port/ Import traffic volume Petro-chemical industry s value-added Distribution per port Refinement capacity per port/import traffic volume Forecast on oil import traffic volume per port Ratio of crude oil import in oil export Sophistication ratio of petroleum refinement facilities Forecast on oil export traffic volume per port Regression analysis (oil export traffic volume) Distribution per port (Sorted by Production/consumption places) Forecast on oil coastal traffic volume per port
Oil Korea has the 6 th largest refining capacity as a major petroleum products producer in the world Import: Item-specific forecast including crude oil, petroleum products, and petroleum gas Export: Forecast on all oil related products Coastal: Forecast on all oil related products Incheon Port Daesan Port Ulsan Port Gwangyang Port Oil Apply bottom-up method targeting ports located near oil refining facilities Petroleum Products Forecast based on added value of petrochemical industry using naphtha, a major ingredient of petroleum products, as a variable Petroleum Gas Forecast by dividing ports into ones which are located near LNG production facilities and ones which are located near power generation plant.
CAGR:5.4% 000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Oil cargo volume in Korea will be 532 million tons by 2020, growing 5.4% on annual average reflecting oil hub, which is underway
000 teu 00 (3.8%) 01 02 03 04 (5.9%) 05 06 (4.9%) 07 08 (0.07%) 09 10 (1.8%) 11 12 (2.3%) 13 14 15 (3.4%) * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS) Traffic volume increase rate is different from country to country. and except for China, Container throughput in Indonesia, India and Viet Nam is significantly higher. 000 teu (11.0%)
000 ton (7.1%) China 00 01 02 03 04 (3.4%) Hong Kong, China India 05 06 (2.1%) Indonesia 07 08 (-0.09%) Japan 09 10 (2.4%) Malaysia 11 12 13 14 15 000 ton (3.8%) (1.6%) (2.4%) Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS) The non-container traffic increase rate was high in the China, India and Viet Nam
12,000 30,000 10,000 25,000 8,000 20,000 6,000 15,000 4,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 0 USD million 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 China Hong Kong, China India * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS) 07 08 Indonesia 09 10 Japan 11 12 13 Malaysia 14 15 16e 17e 18e 19e 20e Republic of Korea Thailand We tried to utilize the same method used in Korea, but due to lack of relevant data, GDP and time series methods were used. USD million Viet Nam
60,000 14,000 12,000 50,000 10,000 40,000 8,000 30,000 6,000 20,000 4,000 10,000 2,000 0 000 teu (2.5%) China 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 (2.4%) Hong Kong, China India 07 08 (2.3%) Indonesia 09 10 (1.6%) Japan 11 12 13 (2.2%) Malaysia 14 15 0 16e 17e 18e 19e 20e 000 teu (1.9%) Republic of Korea (2.1%) Thailand * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS),Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) The annual growth rate is expected to be 2 to 3% on average. However, it is predicted that Viet nam maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020. (3.5%) Viet Nam
3,000,000 1,000,000 900,000 2,500,000 800,000 700,000 2,000,000 600,000 500,000 1,500,000 400,000 1,000,000 300,000 200,000 500,000 100,000 000 ton 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (2.3%) (1.7%) (1.7%) (3.0%) (2.4%) China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS), Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) 14 15 16e 17e 18e 19e 20e (1.8%) Republic of Korea (1.8%) Thailand The annual growth rate is expected to be 0.2 to 2.4% on average. Some countries such as the Philippines(4.3%) and China maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020. 0 000 ton (2.2%) Viet Nam
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