Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, 2000-2013. Outlook for 2014 Sergey Feofilov UkrAgroConsult Black Sea Grain Conference, April 17-18 2013
Black Sea Grain in the Global Markets
Black Sea Wheat in the Global Wheat Export 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Others USA Black Sea region EU-27 Canada Australia Argentina 0 2009/10 2010/2011 2011/12 2012/13
Black Sea Wheat Export by Country
Black Sea Barley Export by Country
Ukraine: Maize Export, KMT 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
Ukrainian Grain in the World Export EU-27 20% Australia 35% barley Ukraine 17% Russia 6% Canada 10% Argentina 9% Kazakhstan 2% Russia 3% Others 4% Kazakhstan 5% Ukraine 4% Argentina 6% Australia 16% wheat Others 12% Canada 14% USA 24% Argentina 20% EU-27 13% USA 35% corn Brazil 15% Ukraine 13% Others 9% South Africa 3% India 3% Russia 2%
Export Logistics in the Black Sea region. New Markets
Forecast of the Black Sea regions grain export 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine 30 20 10 0 2005/06 2013/14* 2015/16* 2018/19* 2020/21*
Ukraine: Maize Export by Country
2011/12 Black Sea Grain: New Markets Others, 15% Azerbaijan, 14% China, 3% Turkey, 12% Egypt, 3% Kazakhstan Wheat export by country 2007/08 Yemen, 3% Emirates, 4% Sudan, 4% Uzbekistan, 9% Uzbekistan,1 Pakistan, 2% % Others, 6% Russia, 3% Tajikistan, 4% Tunisia, 17% Kyrgyzstan, 5% Georgia, 6% Tajikistan, 8% EU 27, 17% Turkey, 15% Iran, 7% EU, 7% Kyrgyzstan, 5% Turkmenistan, 5% Azerbaijan, 12% Egypt, 13%
Total transshipment Capacity of Black Sea Export Terminals, Ml mt, 2013 Ukraine 39,3 Russia 28,2 Kazakhstan 0,6
Ukraine: Grain Export vs. Grain Terminal Capacities grain handling capacities actual grain handling 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14*
Ukraine: All Grains + Oil crops Production vs. Storage Capacity 70 60 crop storage facilities 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
More than third of crops stored at farms
Ukraine: modernization of storage facilities 35% 65% Old bins Modern silos
Ukraine: Delivery Costs to the Black Sea Export Terminals (average) Costs, USD per mt By Dnieper River 6-8 Railway 12-15 By trucks 25-26 * Within 250 km range of delivery
Grain Deliveries by River Transport railway vehicles by river 5 1 2,5 36 55 67 84 10 61 35 18 15 Brazilia Argentina USA Ukraine
Ukraine: River Grain Terminals
Ukraine: Investors in the River Grain Юнигрейн/Unigra in 2% Кернел /Kernel 2% НЗК/NGC 6% УкрАгроКом/ Ukragrocom 10% ДПЗКУ/SFGCU 13% Топфер/Toepfer 1% Terminals Інші/ Others 10% Нібулон/Nibulon 56%
Ukraine: Growing capacities of River Grain Terminals 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Start up of the 2013/14 season
Ukraine: Planted Winter Crops area wheat barley rye rapeseed 1438 301 1640 1418 1082 288 320 1260 1370 1031 304 1103 6750 6640 6700 6700 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Ukraine: Winter Kill and Winter Crops Conditions 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 good satisfactory poor 0,2 12,6 6,6 8,2 0,1 37,6 34,2 31,2 0 47 39,8 55,8 60,6 40,4 26 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ukraine: grain production forecast, MMT sowing area, Ml ha yields, MT/ha gross output, MMT 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Wwheat 6,6 6,7 6,7 3,10 2,52 3,09 19,9 13,6 19,8 Swheat 0,3 0,2 0,2 2,59 2,52 2,46 0,7 0,6 0,4 Wbarley 1,2 1,4 1,1 2,63 1,91 2,65 3,1 1,5 2,9 Sbarley 2,6 2,8 2,3 2,05 1,88 2,18 5,2 5,1 4,9 Corn 3,5 4,5 4,4 5,59 4,53 5,01 19,0 18,8 21,8 Rye 0,3 0,3 0,3 2,07 2,23 2,25 0,6 0,7 0,7 W. Total 8,2 8,4 8,1 2,99 2,02 3,00 23,6 15,7 23,3 S. Total 7,6 8,9 7,9 3,65 3,36 3,42 26,9 26,5 29,1 Total 15,7 17,3 16,1 3,31 2,85 3,35 50,5 42,2 52,4
Ukraine: Wheat Quality 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 6th gr 5th gr 4th gr 1-3rd gr 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Black Sea: Grain Export forecast, 2013/14, Ml mt (2012/13) Wheat 28-32 (23-24) Barley 5-5.5 (4.6) Maize 17-18 (14-14.5) Wheat 31 Barley 5, Maize 17 Estimated grain export potential of the 2013/14 season 50-55 Ml mt (42)
Ukraine: Grain and Rapeseed Export Th mt
Ukraine: Sunoil and Soy Exports, Th mt
Ukraine: Grain Export forecast, 2013/14, Ml mt (2012/13) Wheat 8.7 (6.5) Barley 2.5 (2.2) Maize 15.5 (12.0) Rapeseed 2.0 (1.25) Soy 1.7 (1.5) Sunoil 3.1 (3.25) Estimated grain export potential of the 2013/14 season 25-27 Ml mt (22.0 Ml mt) and 3.5-3,7 of oil crops (1.75)
Black Sea prices: Wheat, Barley, Maize, Sunoil
Grain Prices, 2013 Summer
07.12.2012 14.12.2012 21.12.2012 28.12.2012 04.01.2013 11.01.2013 18.01.2013 25.01.2013 01.02.2013 08.02.2013 15.02.2013 22.02.2013 01.03.2013 08.03.2013 15.03.2013 22.03.2013 29.03.2013 05.04.2013 forecast 07.12.2012 14.12.2012 21.12.2012 28.12.2012 04.01.2013 11.01.2013 18.01.2013 25.01.2013 01.02.2013 08.02.2013 15.02.2013 22.02.2013 01.03.2013 08.03.2013 15.03.2013 22.03.2013 29.03.2013 05.04.2013 forecast Ukraine: Grain Export Prices, Forecast, summer 2013 340 350 320 300 330 280 310 260 240 220 200 Maize 230 290 270 250 Barley 265 230 USA Ukraine Argentina 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Wheat Ukraine France Germany 270 Russia, FOB Novo SRW, USA France Ukraine
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Black Sea Grain: New Markets Ukrainian Maize export by country 2011/12 2007/08 Uzbekistan,1 Pakistan, 2% % Others, 6% Russia, 3% Tajikistan, 4% Tunisia, 17% EU 27, 17% Turkey, 15% Kyrgyzstan, 5% Turkmenistan, 5% Azerbaijan, 12% Egypt, 13%
Среднегодовые мощности по переработке и урожай масличных культур (подсолнечник и соя) тыс. т 16000 14000 12000 Мощность по переработке Урожай 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
Black Sea Grain: New Markets Russian Wheat export by country 2011/12 2007/08
Глобальные слияния и поглощения Global M&A 8,1% 2,2% 3,4% 2,9% 2,5% 1.3% 12,7% 9,1% GLOBAL M&A SECTOR BREAKDOWN YTD Value Industrials & Chemicals Financial Services 11,9% TMT Consumer 29,2% 8,0% 8,8% Business Services Energy, Mining & Utitlities Pharma, Miedical & Biotech SOURCE: MERRILL CORPORATION
Новые рынки
Sown area wheat barley corn other grains sunseed rapeseed soya 1471 108 105 2950 209 265 4100 2198 274 435 748 160 235 556 3900 4290 4550 665 1145 4170 560 645 1750 1486 4320 4420 1070 1129 1525 1159 4800 5250 1058 5700 1651 2389 1461 2266 2454 2158 1869 2564 1762 1890 1699 1771 1795 2202 2530 2200 1435 2740 1530 3450 4500 4577 5795 4695 4511 5379 5055 4230 5050 4670 3840 4185 7441 7226 6077 6794 5633 6511 7115 6715 7065 6900 6950 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Grain and oilseeds production wheat barley corn other grains sunseed rapeseed soya 125 61 3500 3562 3127 9828 19756 232 51 4586 2875 5745 7450 361 613 832 149 284 3395 654 5050 5750 3863 700 3518 3133 1100 6950 6570 4730 6155 2052 10615 8825 6400 11300 6150 16529 17910 13809 13700 810 2870 6900 3200 10000 11800 24200 1043 1873 7350 2805 10200 11600 20800 1680 1470 7800 2042 11000 8800 17200 2277 1420 9292 2402 19000 8300 20600 2566 1203 8572 2675 18800 6520 14180 4250 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11* 2011/12 2012/13
Wheat export destination, 2011/12 season Libya 3% Jordan 3% Syria 4% Bangladesh 2% Tunisia 5% Others 16% Spain 20% Israel 13% Italy 6% Saudi 5% Egypt 23%
Barley export destinations Morocco 3% Israel Jordan 3% 4% Others 7% Iran 5% Syria 9% Saudy 69%
Black Sea Wheat in the Global Wheat Export wheat export 2012/13 Kazakhstan 5% Ukraine 5% Russia 8% Others 12% USA 21% Australia 12% Argentina 4% wheat export 2001/02 India 5% EU 14% Canada 14% Kazakhstan 4% Ukraine 5% Russia 3% Others 10% USA 25% India 3% EU 9% Argentina 10% Canada 15% Australia 16%
Ukraine: Wheat, Barley and Maize Export, KMT 14000 7000 12000 6000 10000 5000 8000 6000 4000 4000 3000 2000 2000 0 1000 0 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
Barley Export Ukraine: