Will there be enough water to grow enough food? Yes if Results of The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture Co-Sponsors:
Setting the Scene
It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average
Investing in Irrigation 2.5 320 2.0 World Bank lending for irrigation Irrigated Area 280 240 1.5 200 160 1.0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species Food price index 120 80 0.5 40 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0
The 850 million undernourished. Dependent on Water for Agriculture? Vulnerable to loss of water Employment Nutrition, food security, income Lower Food Prices There are few options outside of agriculture for most rural poor at present Source: FAO data, graphic from SEI
Limits reached or breached Closed basins no water left for more development Yellow River, Colorado, Amu/Syr Darya, Murray-Darling, Egypt s Nile, Lerma-Chapala, Jordan, Gediz, Zayanda Rud, Indus, Cauvery, Krishna, Chao Phraya,. Groundwater overdraft Fisheries ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent Livestock limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production
Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
The CA framing question How can water for food be developed and managed to Help end poverty and hunger? Ensure environmentally sustainable water-agriculture practices? Find the balance between food and environmental security?
An Assessment Process Deals with a complex societal issue Critical evaluation of information Engages stakeholders throughout process Large and diverse team of experts over 700 people from around the world Includes external reviews Cosponsors:
Chapter writing process CHAPTER NETWORK Coordinating Lead Author (CLA)1-2 CHAPTER TEAM WRITING TEAM Lead Authors (LAs) 2-7 Contributing Authors 5-15 Network of Interested People 20-100 Reviewers 7-20 2 reviews Review Editors Diversity: specialty, region, gender
Book Outline Summary for Decision Makers Section 1- intro Introduction Conceptual Framework Section 2 Impacts & Challenges Scenarios Section 3 Cross-cutting Water Productivity Ecosystems Policies & Institutions Poverty Section 4 - Sectoral Rainfed Irrigated Groundwater Low Quality Water Fisheries Livestock Rice Land Basins Summary available now: www.iwmi.org/assessment
What of the future
Consumption of Animal Products Meat consumption kg/cap/yr 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Per capita demand (kg/cap/yr) of animal products data projections USA World China India 1961 2003 2050
Water Needs (ET) will double without water productivty gains How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 because of diet and population
Crop water consumption to 2050 Today Without productivity improvement Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI). Green solution with blue impacts Water for biofuels* Water for food and feed today Future water for food, CA scenario No water scarcity Approaching water scarcity Water scarce 0% 60% 75% 100% % of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes *Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030
CA Policy Agenda 8 points
Agenda 1 Change the way we think about water and food. A Range of Ag Water Management Options
Agenda 2 water and poverty #2. Get water to poor people, use it better Around 70% of the world s undernourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. 1. Broad investments for economic growth works through multipliers 2. Targeted investments directly impacts poor
Agenda 2 water and poverty Promising Pathways Recognizing gender differentiated roles and impacts Ensure secure access (including water rights) Targeted investments in pro-poor technologies Local management and informal irrigation Multiple-use systems Maintaining fisheries Complementary public investment and actions are needed in the improvement of markets access and infrastructure
Policy Agenda #3: Increase Water Productivity Physical Water Productivity more crop per drop To reduce future water needs For food production increases Economic Water Productivity more value per drop For more income, growth
Agenda 3 increase water productivity Growth in yields United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Policy Agenda 4: Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture Rainfed areas, especially in the semi-arid tropics, have the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.
Agenda 4 upgrade rainfed agriculture Dependence on green and blue water 2000
Agenda 4 upgrade rainfed agriculture The link between poverty, hunger and water scarcity
Agenda 4 upgrade rainfed agriculture Key Actions to Upgrade Rainfed Systems Technology water harvesting, supplemental irrigation, Field water conservation to reduce evaporation. Build human capacity - Expand Policies to include upgrading rainfed
#5: Adapt yesterday s irrigation to tomorrow s needs. The days of rapid expansion of irrigation are over. But there are plenty of reasons to invest:
#6: More ecosystem services from agriculture Provisioning services - food and timber Regulating services - flood control and storage, ground water recharge, water sharing Cultural services spiritual and cultural benefits; O&M as the glue of communities Supporting services biodiversity, nutrient cycling, that maintain the conditions for life on Earth
Lowland rice landscape: very rich biodiversity
Agenda 6 more ecosystem services Manage for Diversity Improve practices to enhance a range of ecosystem services beyond food and fiber Ensure the poor receive considerable benefits payment for environmental services Manage for diversity, engineer for diversity (environmental flows) Informed negotiations
Policy Agenda #7: Reform the policy reform process Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and environmental degradation continue - not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings
Agenda 7 reform the reform process Institutional reform Sectoral reforms needed craft solutions suited to local needs no blueprints Policies outside of water sector have huge influence on water resources diets, trade, agricultural subsidies, energy
Do the right things Today Practices like today CA Scenario CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA
Agenda 8. Make difficult choices now, not later: Choices: Water storage for agriculture water for environment Upstream downstream Productivity - Equity This generation the next one (GW decline) Our consumption patterns and their impact
Thank You