PORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: SOME ISSUES FROM A GLOBAL CHALLENGE Les enjeux mondiaux des infrastructures portuaires en Mediterranée Paolo Costa paolo.costa@unive.it paolo.costa@cplus3c.com
The Mediterranean: a sea at the crossroad of many global issues The port infrastructure issue: --one among many other global issues affecting security, prosperity, sustainability and identity of people inhabiting the Mediterranean shores --a strategic one --within the realm of prosperity and sustainability-- because is confronting us with a long term change in paradigm in port structure affecting all economic and social relations within the Mediterranean and between our mare nostrum and the rest of the world
The port infrastructure issue and this presentation : A conceptual framework and some empirical evidence
The roots of the current port infrastructure issue Ports are worldwide confronted with technical obsolescence and the risk of being cut out of fast-changing carrier networks (geographical obsolescence) because of: -- regionally diversified global growth -- mega container ships -- new global networks via selected consolidation of major routes A port revolution that is mirroring the long term oligopolistic struggle in the global maritime transport market
The roots of the current port infrastructure issue Ports have been trying (1990-2010) to face these challenges through a better use of their existing capacity: --organizational innovation; --from port services to hinterland services via multimodal cargo logistics networks; -- alliances with shippers, 3PLs and other landside supply chain operators) But now they need to make their capacity adequate, adding/changing pieces of infrastructure for attracting direct calls form ocean-going vessels --in every port? --consolidating port services for mega ships in few major ports? --creating innovative multiport gateway systems?
The roots of the current port infrastructure issue The port infrastructure issue is particularly acute in the Mediterranean due to: -- regionally diversified global (and Mediterranean) growth (European west-east economic shift; Turkey; Egipt; African rim) -- mega container ships (Europe-Far East relation) -- new global networks via selected consolidation of major routes (new Suez Canal vs Panama Canal) -- oligopolistic consolidation of ocean carriers (asymmetry in maritime vs port bargaining power) -- integration of supply chain segments driven by multimodal oligopolistic actors (multimodal, multilocation, intrafirm)
The risky business of the long term port infrastructure response Transport Infrastructure: any physical component of transport systems providing services essential to enable, sustain, or enhance people and/or commodities mobility; made of transport nodes (like ports), transport links, all combined in transport networks Sources of risks Supply of transport infrastructure: long gestation and longer use periods Demand for transport infrastructure: (a double derived demand) a function of demand for transport services that are, in turn a function of level and location of production and consumption
THE VIRTUOUS CIRCLE BETWEEN TRANSPORT AND TRAFFIC GLOBAL NETWORKS Ports are nodes in transport networks that affect, temporarily, the traffic flow geometry (a function of level and location of production and consumption) that in the long run will ask for a new network geometry Port infrastructure are an immovable chosen asset
--How global (and Mediterranean) growth and trade are affecting mediterranean maritime flows and ports? --Which is the contribution of locational change and environmental sustainability? --Which is the effect of the irresitible (container)ship size growth?
Challenges coming from world seaborn trade: time and space evolution
World and GDP Seaborn trade: time evolution
Global trade 1996-2000 12
Global Trade 2011 13
Global trade 2050 Global scenario 2050 forecast ITF Transport Outlook 2015 International trade is estimated to grow by a factor of 3.4 by 2050. Between 2010 and 2060 intra OECD countries trade will halve : Non OECD countries trade will more than double Asia linked international trade corridors will grow most! 14
GLOBAL MARITIME CONTAINER TRAFFIC FLOWS Transatlantica: 6,6 mln di TEU Intra Asia: 59,3 mln di TEU Transatlantica: 6,6 mln di TEU Europa-Asia: 22,4 mln di TEU Transpacifica: 22,2 mln di TEU
Mediterranean sea and Europe-Asia sea borne flows via Suez Canal 2004-2014 2004 2014 CONTAINER TRAFFIC FLOW (TEU X 1000) IN OUT CONTAINER TRAFFIC FLOW (TEU X 1000) IN OUT SUEZ 9440 8271 SUEZ 18703 16256 BLACK SEA 241 1429 BLACK SEA 168 3063 MEDITERRANEAN 3722 3408 MEDITERRANEAN 10533 7141 GIBRALTAR 913 + 79 556 + 194 GIBRALTAR 1815 + 516 1093 + 484 NORTH EUROPE 4431 2458 NORTH EUROPE 5649 4047 BALTIC SEA 55 227 Source: VPA elaboration on Suez Canal Authority data BALTIC SEA 22 428
Mediterranean sea and Europe-Asia sea borne flows via Suez Canal 2004-2014 12000000 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 IMPORT 8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 EXPORT 2004 2014 2004 2014 2014 +183,0% 2004 +27,5% 2014 2004 +64,7% +109,6% MED NORD EU MAR NERO AMERICA AFRICA BALTICO MED NORD EU MAR NERO AMERICA AFRICA BALTICO Source: VPA elaboration on Suez Canal Authority data
Challenges coming from intramediterranean growth and trade (east bound shifts)
GDP mediterranean countries 2004 NE 20% France 2.124.112 Italy 899.157 Italy 899.157 Slovenia 34.470 Croatia 41.574 Bosnia 10.022 NO 58% SO 12% SE 10% Albania 7.314 Spain 534.778 Spain 534.778 Greece 240.521 Turkey 392.166 Morocco 59.626 Tunisia 31.183 Lebanon 20.955 Algeria 85.325 Lybia 16.561 Lybia 16.561 Egypt 78.845 Israel 135.418 Jordan 11.407
GDP mediterranean countries 2015 NE 16% France 2.418.835 Slovenia 42.774 NO 52% SE 20% Italy 910.749 Italy 910.749 Croatia 48.732 Bosnia 16.191 SO 12% Albania 11.398 Spain 599.529 Spain 599.529 Greece 194.851 Turkey 717.879 Morocco 100.593 Tunisia 43.015 Lebanon 47.085 Algeria 166.839 Lybia 17.350 Lybia 17.350 Egypt 330.779 Israel 308.769 Jordan 37.517
Mediterranean countries keep growing 1.300 imprese italiane in Tunisia, più di 1.000 in Turchia, Oltre 200 in Marocco e Egitto, circa 100 in Algeria
Challenges coming from European economic locational change and environmental sustainability
Europe: the eastbound manufacturing shift Share of manufacturing employment on total employment: 1999 2013 (source: VPA elaboration on Eurostat data)
The Mediterranean greenest route Asia-Europe Source: SoNoRa, New UE Freight Corridors in the area of the Central Europe, Research Unit, Transport, Territory and Logistics (TTL) University IUAV of Venice, Dec 2009-97 KG CO2/TEU
Challenges coming from the irresistible (container) ship size growth
The long term march of container shipping gigantism
Containerization: a continuous process 2000-2016
Average ship size on most trade lanes (TEU)
ize distibution of Container Vessel Stock
Size distribution of container vessel order book
The «overcapacity» post-truth enigma Mol Triumph 20.150 TEU (400x58.8x16) larger than Msc Oscar 19.244 TEU Overcapacity: adding new apples to old potatos Too many new ships (+8% global tonnage), too few old one scrapped (-3%) New ships polarized distribution: over 10.000 TEU below 4.000 TEU ask for polarized distribution of ports? The trap of existing vs adequate (size and location) port facilities
Mediterranean port traffic: recent trends
MED Ports Traffic (TEU): the great recession 2008-2012 and the new (slow) recovery 2007-2013 2013-2015 Source: Port of Venice Authority 33
Container traffic in 38 porti del Mediterraneo (mil. TEU - variaz.%) Fonte: Elaborazioni dell autore su dati raccolti da siti internet, autorità portuali, autorità governative, Ministeri * Algeria, Croazia, Libano, Portogallo, Slovenia, Tunisia
Mediterranean port infrastructure models
Mediterranean port infrastructure models
Mediterranean port infrastructure models -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Transhipment vs Direct Call Transhipment: hub and spoke -- hub in the southern Mediterrnanean African rim (near Gibraltar and Suez) -- spoke in the northern Mediterranean European rim
Mediterranean port infrastructure models --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Transhipment vs Direct Call Direct call -- Few northern Mediterranean European port (east more than west) -- Multiport gateway system
Multiport gateway systems: two North Adriatic examples CHIOGGIA (ONSHORE TERMINAL) RAVENNA (ONSHORE TERMINAL) «ONE CALL» OFFSHORE-ONSHORE INNOVATIVE WEST TERMINAL MODEL VENICE (ONSHORE TERMINAL) OFFSHORE TERMINAL «MULTI CALL» TRADITIONAL EAST TERMINAL MODEL TRIESTE MEGA SHIPS 18.000/22.000 TEUs KOPER RIJEKA MEGA SHIPS 18.000/22.000 TEUs
Multiport gateway systems The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System (VOOPS)
The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System the direct call «one offshore-many onshore» model MAMA VESSEL 41
The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System Container Terminal Energy Terminal Offshore terminal
The Venice Offshore-Onshore Port System Mama Vessel and Cassettes Core innovation of the VOOPS system (flexible, environmental friendly, resilient)
The New maritime Silk Road (One Belt One Road Strategy) and the Chinese approach to the Mediterranean sea
Map showing some of the potential routes of the maritime and land Silk Road that was published online by Xinhua, China s state news agency, in March 2014 Source: http://www.xinhuanet.com/ (2014) USA? (East Coast) Source: Limes, 1/2017 (2017) 45
Thank you for your attention! Prof. Paolo COSTA paolo.costa@unive.it