Sentinel- 2 Agriculture Demonstration in Ukraine: state- of- the- art and recent results Prof. Nataliia Kussul Space Research Institute, Ukraine

Sentinel- 2 Agriculture Demonstration in Ukraine: state- of- the- art and recent results Prof. Nataliia Kussul Space Research Institute, Ukraine

Sen2Agri: Sentinel-2 Country level Demonstration, the context Consistent information at field scale on Ukrainian agriculture: Crop mask; Crop types; Crop state; Early crop area indicators, detection of crop anomalies Processing of Big data volumes in automated way Region Images amount L1C size, Gb L2A size, Tb Kiev 157 330 1.8 Mykolaiv 106 198 1.4 ~10% of the total area of Ukraine

Sen2Agri: Sentinel-2 Country level Demonstration, in-situ data Training set 5536 parcels Validation set 2153 parcels

Sen2Agri: Sentinel-2 Country level Demonstration, in-situ data The whole territory coverage (~603.6 km 2 ); Two field campaigns: Winter Crops (during spring); Spring Crops (during summer) Training dataset 5526 samples; Validation dataset 2154 samples; Cropland classes (main): Fodder crops, Maize, Other cereals, Rapeseed, Rye, Soya beans, Spring barley, Spring wheat, Sugar beet, Sunflower, Winter barley, Winter wheat Non- cropland classes (main): Bare soil, Broadleaved woodland, Coniferous woodland, Mixed woodland, Build up surface, Fruit gardens, Grassland and meadows, Shrub land, Water bodies, Wetland

From field surveys

Sen2Agri: Sentinel-2 Country level Demonstration, in-situ data Indirect method for biopar estimation (DHP imagery, CAN- EYE); Total amount 121 samples April July 2016; 9 expeditions; JECAM test site (Pshenichne); 3 main crops: Winter wheat (42 ESU); Maize (37 ESU); Soy beans (42 ESU)

Crop classification, country level Maize Winter wheat Kiev (SRI) Kiev (Sen2- A gri) Stat % 314.9 204.5 312.6 262.4 268 197.2 15.9 33.2 Mykolaiv (SRI) Mykolayiv (Sen2- A gri) 99.7 480.6 pixel 166.4 481.0 pixel Stat % 132.8 331.8 25.3 45.0

Crop classification vs Statistics Crop type Classification Statistics Winter wheat 204.5 197.2 Winter rapeseed 26.4 19.4 Maize 314.9 268 Sugar beet 15.5 18.1 Sunflower 213.9 161.2 Soybeans 233.0 173.3 Peas 73.0 Spring crops (wheat, barley) 45.9 Winter barley 56.5 Total cropland 1183.6 1154.9

Cropland mask, country level, statistics cross comparison 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 No official statistics for Crimea Площа порахована як по Crop masc (тис. га) Посівна площа під урожай 2016 року (офіційна статистика)

Sowing area change to 1990, % Cropland mask, country level Product details: 10 meters; Donetsk region Sen- 2 data; All Conflict area April - September Sowing area change to 1990, % Luhansk region Crop area dall ecreasing in conflict area Conflict area 2016

Yield forecasting background Operational service from 2011 ESA GLOBCOVER cropland, 300 m, 2008; Data: Time series of NDVI, biopar; Statistical data from State Statistics Service of Ukraine; Up to 2 months before harvest Technology: Regression based approach Yi = Ti + dyi Ti = a0 + a1 * i Yield for year i trend dyi = Yi Ti = f (FAPARi ) = b0 + b1 * NDVI i dyi FAPAR Deviation from trend Operational forecasting

Maize production, Kiev region use case Maize area estimates based on classification map vs statistics Year Statistics, 10 3 ha Classification, 10 3 ha % 2016 268 314.9 +17.5 Winter wheat yield estimates based on time series of VI and official statistics Estimated Yield, Official Yield, 2016 to 2015, Region 2016, t/ha 2015, t/ha %. Kiev 6.9 6.2 +11.3 Region Estimated Yield, 2016, t/ha Estimated Area, 2016, 10 3 ha Estimated Production, 2016, 10 3 t Official Production, 2015, 10 3 t Kiev 6.9 314.9 2172.8 1466.8

Wheat production, Kiev region use case Winter wheat area estimates based on classification map vs statistics Year Statistics, 10 3 ha Classification, 10 3 ha % 2016 197.2 204.5 +3,7 2015 195.2 219.8 +12.6 Winter wheat yield estimates based on time series of VI and official statistics Estimated Yield, Official Yield, Region 2016 to 2015, %. 2016, t/ha 2015, t/ha Kiev 4.8 4.8 t/ha 0 Winter wheat production Region Estimated Yield, 2016, t/ha Estimated Area, 2016, 10 3 ha Estimated Production, 2016, 10 3 t Official Production, 2015, 10 3 t Kiev 4.8 204,5 981.6 982.5

Potential national users for Sen2-Agri products Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine: Food security, crop rotation monitoring The State Service of Ukraine for Geodesy, Cartography & Cadastre: Land use monitoring Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center: Operational crop state estimation& Crop yield forecasting Local agricultural authorities and Farmers: Crop state monitoring, yield forecasting and production estimation; Traders: Early estimation of production

Discussions and prospects Delivery of the national products to the government and all interested users; Engage for feedback how to improve and analyze the information; Training for using the information; Sen2Agri system available as open source for national monitoring purposes (once qualified spring 2017)