Western U.S. Air Quality Issues Tom Moore Western Regional Air Partnership May 9, 2011
Monitoring Emissions Fire Oil & Gas Example Air Quality Assessments & Modeling Gridded Emissions (maybe)
Monitoring
3-year Average 4 th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value by County 2007-2009 AQS Federal Reference Method data from the monitoring site in each County with the highest Ozone values (map revised October 8, 2010)
3-year Average 4 th Highest 8-Hour Ozone value for Rural/Class I Sites 2007-2009 AQS Federal Reference Method data from rural or Class I area monitoring sites (map revised October 8, 2010)
3-year Average 4 th Highest 8-Hour Ozone Design Value for selected Urban Counties currently in Attainment 2007-2009 AQS Federal Reference Method data from the monitoring site in each County with the highest Ozone values (map revised October 8, 2010)
Average Annual Count of Days with 8-Hour Ozone Averages > 60 ppb for Rural/Class I Monitoring Sites - 1987 through 2009 AQS Federal Reference Method data from rural or Class I area monitoring sites (map revised October 8, 2010)
IMPROVE Monitored Baseline Extinction for 20% Worst Days 8
Regional precipitation N trends NO 3 - NH 4 + Lehman et al., 2005
Emissions
WRAP - before BART
Western State Power Plant Emissions Trends 600,000 550,000 Future 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 SO2 (tpy) 200,000 NOx (tpy) 150,000 mmbtu/10,000 100,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 After BART Ozone Standard
105 Projected Change in Anthropogenic NOx Emissions from 2002 to 2018 85 65 % Change in NOx emissions 45 25 5-15 -35-55 -75 AZ CA CO ID MT ND NM NV OR SD UT WA WY Point Area + O&G On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Anthro Fire 13
NO x Emissions from Western US Power Plants Isolated plants have discrete signatures in satellite retrievals Power plant emissions are measured continuously at each stack Post-combustion NO x controls on large coal-burning plants are now proposed North Valmy Colstrip Intermountain Hunter / Huntington Reid Gardener Dave Johnston/ Laramie River Jim Bridger/ Naughton Craig/Hayden Mohave Bonanza Navajo Four Corners/ San Juan Cholla/Coronado/ Springerville SCIAMACHY satellite instrument, Summer 2005 14 Kim, Frost et al.
NO x Emissions from Western US Urban Areas + Likely Ozone Urban and/or High Ambient Concentration Areas Build on satellite-model comparisons for power plants Evaluate urban area emission inventories and monitor changes Warm Season Ozone NAAQS Likely Urban Nonattainment Areas Boise Denver/Northern Front Range, also Colorado Springs? Salt Lake City Reno Sacramento San Francisco Fresno Bakersfield Los Angeles Albuquerque / Santa Fe Las Vegas Phoenix Tucson Kim, Frost et al., modified by Moore El Paso 15 SCIAMACHY satellite instrument, Summer 2005
Change in SO2 Emissions (tpy) 2002 to 2018 across North America All SO 2 Sources 2002 to 2018 Canada CENRAP Eastern US Mexico Pacific Off-Shore WRAP Tons/year -159,003-445,526-3,856,861 +99,105 +273,413-341,348 % -7% -16% -36% +14% +88% -32% 16
Change in NOx Emissions (tpy) 2002 to 2018 across North America All NO x Sources 2002 to 2018 Canada CENRAP Eastern US Mexico Pacific Off- Shore WRAP Tons/year -17,043-1,947,438-4,765,494 +280,697 +391,972-1,518,746 % -1% -33% -40% +39% +76% -33% 17
Projected Change in WRAP Region Anthropogenic NOx Emissions* from 2002 to 2018 (California removed**) * Does not reflect NOx BART after Spring 2009, O&G growth/controls after Spring 2007, & state/local rules after Spring 2009 ** California too large to show 18
Change in WRAP region Gaseous Volatile Organic Compound Emissions (tpy) 2002 to 2018 - Mobile down 785,779 tons (-50%), Point up 40,176 tons (+15%), Area up 499,144 tons (+38%), WRAP O&G Area up 310,648 tons (+71%) Questions & more work needed on methane, speciation, spatial/temporal/source type allocation 19
Smoke/Fire & the Ozone and PM NAAQS, Regional Haze Rule Fire The Big Picture Technical Products for air quality planning & management as required by the Clean Air Act Future emissions, efforts to avert emissions & health/visibility impacts, & adapt to a changing/varying climate U.S. Wildfire & Prescribed Fires Acres Burned (1990 through 2009) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Wildfire Acres Prescribed Fire Acres
Small (Prescribed) Fires 59% of July events 2% of July fire PM2.5 91% of November events 38% of November fire PM2.5 Emissions from Large Wildfires were analyzed separately with from Small Prescribed Fires with 12km CMAQ model No fires less than 100 acres in timber, 300 acres in grass/brush were in database Large wildfires removed were generally 10,000+ acres Resulting Modeled Visibility Impairment by Fires in 2002 Large Wildfires Small (Prescribed) Fires 21
Fires and Ozone (urban contributor to urban impacts, direct formation from fire event(s), precursor transport?) Wildfire Agricultural Fire Prescribed Fire Residential Wood Burning
RPO Wildfire emissions estimate
Change in Primary Organic PM2.5 Emissions (tpy) 2002 to 2018 across North America 24
WRAP Region Fire PM2.5 Emissions Scenarios (tpy) 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2002 Actual 2000-04 Baseline Average 2018 Planning - Baseline Average with ERTs 2018 Projection A - FLM-proposed activities 2018 Projection B - Climate conditions/ resource limited 2018 Projection C - Max. application of Prescribed Fire Prescribed Fire 71,421 72,218 64,170 195,020 97,347 376,206 Wildland Fire Use 81,505 41,171 41,171 659,594 1,319,189 659,594 Wildfire 1,489,886 971,453 971,453 504,654 504,654 504,654 Agricultural Fire 34,571 34,590 34,590 34,590 34,590 34,590 N-F Rangeland Fire 15,454 15,454 15,454 18,643 18,643 18,643
Dust PM emissions used in WRAP regional haze analysis
Oil and Gas Production in the Rocky Mountains Boom in oil and gas production in this region over the last ten years driven by record prices for crude oil and natural gas Colorado gas production in 1996: 572 billion cubic feet Colorado gas production in 2006: 1.2 trillion cubic feet Activity supported by large fleet of equipment at thousands of individual well sites Partial inventory of this equipment through state permitting databases Wide state-to-state variation in permitting thresholds and source categories permitted
EASTERN UTAH 2006 Oil and Gas Production BLM proposed leasing for oil shale development BLM proposed leasing for tar sands development Indian Country Regulatory authority controlled by the Tribes and EPA Oil Shale Leasing Tar Sands Leasing Indian Country
NOx Emissions from Oil & Gas
Example Air Quality Assessments & Modeling
California Ozone Transport - Source Apportionment Study Results Ozone Source Apportionment Monthly Mean Results (WRAP region states highlighted) Tong, D. Q. and Mauzerall, D. L. Summertime State-Level Source- Receptor Relationships between Nitrogen Oxides Emissions and Surface Ozone Concentrations over the Continental United States. Environmental Science & Technology, Volume 42, Number 21, 2008.
Source: Four Corners Modeling Report 33
Evolutional change in National Air Pollution Management Initial CAA Biogenics Regional science 8-hr ozone PM 2.5 (annual driver) Regional Rules New PM Standards Daily/annual drivers 2050 1970 1990 2000 2010 Climate-AQ Hemispherical Transport Local/urban Regional Hemispheric 34 R. Scheffe, November 2009
National Nitrogen Observation Networks Also SEARCH, NPS SLAMS NADP CASTNET PM speciation NCORE 35
Existing and proposed sentinel sites LRTAP 2007 assessment Å Alert Å ZeppelinMt. Å Existingsites Åú Recommended Å Pt.Barrow Å MaunaLoa Å Mt.Batchelor Å TrinidadHead Åú Å WhitefaceMt. Åú Å Pico-NARE Å Izana Å Sodakayla Å Pallas Å MaceHead Å Jungfraujoch Åú Mt. Waliguan Å Åú Å Mt. Tai Å Mt.Huangi Minamitorishima Åú Åú Å 36
What s missing 1 st what is adequate (relative terms) Great NO network wet and dry nitrate But, Rural coverage in general especially Western States Virtually no true NO 2 observations Skeleton NOy network Missing routine and sustained vertical profile and aloft data Sentinel transport sites Reliance on occasional intensive studies (2010 CALNEX) 37
Rethinking Nitrogen/ozone monitoring in rural/regional scales Opportunities NAAQS New NO2 standard Lead to molecule specific observations N/S secondary standards review Possible growth of NOy observations Increased attention to NH3 catalyze blending models and obs (spatial scarcity and wet-dry anomalies) Tighter primary ozone standards & secondary ozone standard Spread to regional/western locations Greater influence of hemispherical transport Collaborations across agencies, remote sensing Blending models and observations 38
Satellites provide best source of ambient NO 2 : Accountability and Trends Figure 20. Left - superimposed Eastern U.S. emission and combined GOME and SCIAMACHY NO2 1997-2002 trends (Kim et al., 2006); right - GOME NO2 trends from 1995 2002 (after Richter, 2005). Clear evidence of reductions in midwest U.S. and European NOx emissions, and increased NOx generated in Eastern Asia. Figure 21. 2004 OMI NO2 column images aggregated for all Fridays (left) and Sundays (right) indicating weekend/weekday patterns associated with reduced Sunday emissions (source, Husar). 39
Global Distribution of Nitrogen Dioxide: Precursors to Ozone Formation (Fishman) Tropospheric NO 2 columns retrieved from the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument for 2004 2005 (after Martin et al., 2002) 40
Gridded Emissions
VOC Emissions from Wildfire
VOC Emissions from Oil & Gas
VOC Emissions from Biogenics
VOC Emissions from Off-Road Mobile Sources
VOC Emissions from On-Road Mobile Sources
VOC Emissions from Non-Point (Area) Sources
NOx Emissions from Biogenics
NOx Emissions from Off-Road Sources
NOx Emissions from On-Road Sources
NOx Emissions from Oil & Gas
NOx Emissions from Point Sources
NOx Emissions from Non-Point (Area) Sources
NOx Emissions from Wildfire
Thanks Tom Moore 970.491.8837 mooret@cira.colostate.edu