Introduction to Energy Technology Roadmaps OECD/IEA 2012
Overview Global context for energy technology roadmaps About technology roadmaps How-to-guide and roadmap process Examples of IEA roadmaps
Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions 6 C Scenario emissions 58 Gt ------------> 2 C Scenario emissions 16 Gt ------------> Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 6 C Scenario business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies 2 C Scenario energy-related CO 2 -emissions halved by 2050 through CO 2 -price and strong policies 7/13/2012
ABOUT TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS
IEA roadmap definition A technology roadmap is a dynamic set of technical, policy, legal, financial, market & organizational requirements identified by all stakeholders involved in its development. The effort shall lead to improved and enhanced sharing and collaboration of all related technology-specific RDD&D information among participants. The goal is to accelerate the overall RDD&D process in order to deliver an earlier uptake of the specific energy technology into the marketplace.
The IEA roadmap approach Engage cross-section of stakeholders Identify a baseline where is technology today? Use ETP 2 degree scenario (2DS) results for deployment pathway to 2050 Identify barriers technical, regulatory, policy, financial, public acceptance Develop implementation action items for stakeholders
Technology roadmaps provide answers Where is technology today? GW installed capacity/kwh of savings Leading countries/regions Cost, efficiency What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals? Use IEA Energy Technology Perspectives BLUE Map scenarios What are the priority near-term actions? R&D gaps and how to fill them Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome Market requirements and policy needs Technology diffusion/transfer and international collaboration needs
Technology roadmaps status 2009 2010 2011 2012 / 2013 Bioenergy for heat and power Vehicle Fuel Economy Solar heating & cooling High efficiency, low emissions coal Chemical catalysis Hydropower Energy efficient building envelopes
HOW-TO GUIDE
guide Guide published in 2010 by IEA Understanding roadmaps Roadmap development process Tailoring the roadmap process http://www.iea.org/publications/free_new_desc.asp?pubs_id=2291
Roadmap logic Goal to achieve Milestones to be met Gaps to be filled Actions to overcome gaps and barriers What and when things need to be achieved
Roadmap process outline 7/13/2012
Roadmap process outline 7/13/2012
Planning and preparation Who will set roadmap goals? Who will be responsible for developing the roadmap? How much time is available to develop the roadmap? What is the timeframe of the roadmap? What skills and tools will be needed? Are appropriate data and analytic tools available? Are sufficient personnel available to manage and implement the roadmap development process?
Planning and preparation phase Ensure leadership commitment Appoint a steering committee Develop a statement of purpose and scope Conduct baseline research Technologies, markets, policies Select stakeholders and experts
Roadmap process outline 7/13/2012
Expert judgment and consensus: roadmap workshops Structured vision and technology roadmap workshops can: Build consensus on goals and targets Evaluate and verify assumptions Identify technical and institutional barriers Define alternative technology pathways Develop implementation strategies and priorities
Managing engagement
Roadmap process outline 7/13/2012
Roadmap process outline 7/13/2012
Baseline data Situation analysis of key factors: Technologies: Current status of costs and performance Technology readiness Market penetration and limitations Markets: Suppliers, distributors and customers Energy characteristics (production, delivery, storage and consumption) Environmental impacts (air, water and land impacts) Public policies: Current status and requirements of relevant, existing laws and regulations
4a Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e 4a.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 16340 1269 0 0 4b Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e 4b.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 17125 9308 0 0 5 Entwicklung der Kapazitäten und der Erzeugung aus regenerativen Energiequellen (Mindestmengen) in Deutsch Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e 5.1a Sonne GW 0,11 0,71 1,31 1,61 1,91 5.1b Sonne TWh p.a. 0,07 0,60 1,00 1,28 1,52 5.2a Wind GW 6,11 23,10 25,60 26,90 28,10 5.2b Wind TWh p.a. 9,50 43,54 57,96 64,02 70,08 5.3a Biomasse GW 0,59 0,80 1,00 1,10 1,20 5.3b Biomasse TWh p.a. 1,63 2,55 3,60 4,20 4,80 6 Energie- und Umweltpolitik in Deutschland bis 2030 6,1 Größe Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e CO2-Zertifikatehandel nein ja ja ja ja (Strom u. Industrie) 6,2 CO2-Zertifikatepreis 2000/tCO 2-3,00 9,00 12,00 14,00 Model-based scenario analysis Representation of relevant aspects in real-world system: Model scope depending on technology area Several models may be required Reality Model Model structure Scope Typically quantitative formulation with balance between accuracy and manageability: Complexity may vary: from simulation-based spreadsheet models to more elaborate cost optimization models P O Q = e P Mathematical description P BHKW _ S BHKW Coal _ BHKW BHKW _ CO2 = h = h Coal _ BHKW P + 2 BHKW _ H BHKW Coal _ BHKW _ Data Exploring possible future technology deployment pathways through scenarios 30 20 PJ 10 0 Household Transport Industry 1990 2000 2010 2020 Model results
Example: results of power sector model analysis Future power generation mix and capacities Fuel demand Environmental impacts Long-term electricity prices Investment needs Effect of policy instruments Uncertainty analysis PWh 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 BLUE High BLUE High Ren Nuclear 2050 2050 Other Solar Wind Biomass+CCS Biomass and waste Hydro Nuclear Natural gas+ccs Natural gas Oil Coal+CCS Coal
Benefits of scenario analysis Consistent assessment of costs and benefits linked to the technology deployment Taking into account energy system aspects: Interdependencies of a technology within the energy system Competition with alternative technology options Identifying critical factors for technology deployment Assessing effects of technology and policy choices on national energy situation Uncertain future factors (e.g. energy prices, demand, technology success) Facilitating the discussions among experts and stakeholders in the roadmap process
Tailoring the roadmap process Six considerations when designing a roadmap process: Stakeholder participation Resource constraints Critical inputs Roadmap design Buy-in and dissemination Monitoring and tracking
IEA ROADMAP EXAMPLES
Wind Roadmap: An ambitious growth pathway 6000 25% Wind electricity production (TWh/yr) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 20% 15% 10% 5% % of global electricity production 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China OECD Europe USA OECD Pacific Latin America India EiT Other North America Middle East Other Developing Asia Africa Wind share BLUE Map scenario Wind share BLUE hi REN scenario 0% 7/13/2012
PV Roadmap PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050 7/13/2012
CSP Roadmap Consumption Production 2050: A detailed regional assessment with some HVDC lines
EE in buildings roadmap example: Cost reduction goals 7/13/2012
EV/PHEV roadmap example: milestones 7/13/2012
NATIONAL ROADMAPS
China wind roadmap 1000 GW of wind, 17% of electricity production in 2050 Cumulative investment of USD 600 bn by 2030 and USD 1.9 tn by 2050 CO 2 savings of 1.5 Gt and reduction of 660 m tce Two possible pathways developed for transmission
Cement in India Roadmap India Cement Technology Roadmap partners In consultation with Principal supporter Industry supporters
Roadmap development process Technology papers (CII/NCBM) Phase I Cement demand data, data modeling and analysis (IEA) Phase II Data coverage (>70% of Indian industry) Partner and stakeholder review unit-level analysis at 6-9 CSI member company cement plants Stakeholder outreach Technology Financing Policy
A final thought Roadmaps can be powerful tools for Aligning interests and skills of diverse stakeholders Identifying steps and timing needed to achieve a chosen future Generating buy-in and support that leads to real action Monitoring progress against stated milestones and adjusting the plan as needed OECD/IEA 2012
For more information Download the guide: http://www.iea.org/papers/roadmaps/guide.pdf Contact: Cecilia Tam, IEA phone +33 1 40 57 67 55 cecilia.tam@iea.org