Application of WEAP model to planning and managing of river basins integrating local and regional applications David R. Purkey, Ph.D. U.S. Water Group Leader Managing Environmental Systems Research Theme Co-Leader Stockholm Environment Institute
Sectoral demand analyses Water conservation Water rights and allocation priorities Groundwater and streamflow simulations Reservoir operations Hydropower generation Pollution tracking Ecosystem requirements Climate change impact and adaptation analysis
WEAP The Sacramento Basin
Photo by Allen Harthorn, Friends of Butte Creek
BUTTE CREEK AND FEATHER BUTTE CREEK SUBWATERSHEDS RIVER Butte Creek Feather River Round Valley Reservoir Philbrook Reservoir Butte Creek Diversion Hendricks Diversion Lower Centerville DiversionDeSabla PH Centerville PH Creek near Chico USGS gage Little Butte Creek Area: Butte Creek: 382 km2 WB Feather River: 130 km2 Average Precipitation: 900-1700 mm/year
!. A1!( A2!( Quartz Bowl A4!(!( A5 Whiskey Flat!( B2!.!(!( B1! ( B3!( B4!(!( Subreach Limits B5 B6!( CentervilleDiversion!( B7!( B8 C1!(!.!( C2 C3!( Helltown!( C4!( C5 Centerville Powerhouse! ( C6!. C7!(!( C9!(!( C10 Quail run Bridge!( C12!( D1!.!(!( D2 D3!(!( D4!( D5 D6!(!( D7 D8!(!( E1!( E4!(!. E5!( E3!( E2!( E6!( E7!( Legend!. Reach Limits Covered Bridge!. Temperature Model Domain!( A5!( A4!( A3!( A2!(!. A1 Quartz Bowl Pool Riffle Run
Analytical Framework Calibration Projections Climate Interpolated Observations 1986-2005 Daily: P, Tair, RH, Wind Stream Observations 2001-2008 Weekly mean: Q obs, Twater obs Climate Downscaled Projections 2009-2099 Daily: P, Tair, RH, Wind Reservoir Temperature Stratification WEAP-1D Watershed Hydrology, Hydropower and Management WEAP Weekly: Rnet, P, Tair, Wind Calibrated to Q obs and Twater obs Reservoir Temperature Stratification WEAP-1D Watershed Hydrology, Hydropower and Management WEAP Weekly: Rnet, P, Tair, Wind Q mod, Twater mod Population Dynamics SALMOD mesohabitat unit, fish distribution, weekly fish mortality Final calibration to Q obs, Twater obs Q mod, Twater mod Population Dynamics SALMOD mesohabitat unit, fish distribution Fish abundance Fish abundance
Streamflow and Temperature Calibrations
Water Temperature ( o C) Streamflow (m 3 /s) Temperature and Streamflow dependence Weekly averages 1986-2005 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Migration Holding Spawning Spawning Incubation and Emergence Yearlings Outmigration Model Max Model Mean Model Min Obs Max Obs Mean Obs Min - O N D J F M A M J J A S 25 Migration 20 15 10 Spawning Incubation and Emergence Holding Spawning Max - model A1 Pool - model Min - model Max - obs QuarBwl - obs Min - obs 5 Yearlings Outmigration 0 O N D J F M A M J J A S
Population dynamics model structure (simplified) Deterministic, weekly time step, spatially explicit Developed / modified by USGS Returning Adults Ocean Holding / Spawning Adults Eggs and Alevin Fry SALMOD Temperature Flow Habitat Outmigrating Juveniles 0+ Parr 1+ Parr Fecundity (eggs/female) Growth Mortality Movement
SALMOD Calibration Observed Predicted R 2 = 0.93
Summer Survival of Adult Salmon Added 15,000 adults each spring Calculated proportion that survived to spawn Year Extinction criterion = 4 years with no survival
Spawners Spawners Management Adaptations Round Valley Reservoir Philbrook Reservoir Butte Creek Diversion Hendricks Diversion Lower Centerville DiversionDeSabla PH Centerville PH Butte Creek near Chico USGS gage 20000 Climate 20000 No Diversion 15000 10000 5000 0 15000 10000 5000 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Year Year Cold Water A2 Savings climate scenario + ncarccsm3 Combination model of Both
Gigawatt-Hour Hydropower generation in Centerville PH Compared to historic Note persistent reduction under climate scenarios 35 historic A2cnrmcm3 B1cnrmcm3 A2gfdlcm21 B1gfdlcm21 A2miroc32med B1miroc32med A2mpiecham5 B1mpiecham5 A2ncarccsm3 B1ncarccsm3 A2ncarpcm1 B1ncarpcm1 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Gigawatt-Hour Hydropower effects? Reduction in the order of 15-20% annual hydropower No hydropower in the summer Small hydropower: Supplies summer peak demands Contribute to renewable energy mix historic sresa2cnrmcm3 sresb1cnrmcm3 sresa2gfdlcm21 sresb1gfdlcm21 sresa2miroc32med sresb1miroc32med 35 sresa2mpiecham5 sresb1mpiecham5 sresa2ncarccsm3 sresb1ncarccsm3 sresa2ncarpcm1 sresb1ncarpcm1 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
The California Water Plan Legislatively mandated in 1963. Updated every 5 years. Prepared by the Dept. of Water Resources. Serves as a programmatic guide to which individual project proposals must make reference. Historically based on traditional gap analysis. With 2003 update, began transition to a scenario-based planning.
Yolo Bypass Sacram ento R. Tehama- Colusa Canal Glen- Colusa Canal Sutte r Bypas s WEAP and the California Water Plan Upper Trinity River Sacramento River Delta San Joaquin River Tulare Lake Interactive Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture Rivers and Tributaries Inter-Basin Transfer Canals and Diversions Reservoir M&I/Environ. Demand Instream Flow Requirement Trinity Sacramento McCl Trinit R. Clear oud y Whiske R. Shast Upper Ck R. ytown a Pit R. P 1 i Cow t Cottonwood Ck Battle Ck. Alma Elder/Thom Big Ck. Chico R nor East es Ck. Ck. Butte North and Middle Orovil Fk. Park/Stony Ck. le South Feather R. Fk. Gorge/Blac Stony Feather New Bullards North R. Fk. Bar k Ck. Butte Middle and South Fk. Camp Far Yuba R. Bear Yuba R. R. West Clear Cache Lake Cross Ck. North and Berryess Canal Middle South Fk. Putah Folso a American Ck. R. m Cosumn Caman es Pard R. DELT che Mokelu ee mne R. A New Calave Hogan TulloNew ras R. Stanisl ch Melones aus R. New Tuolumne R. Don McCl San Pedro Merced ure Luis Eastman/He Chowchilla/Fr R. nsley esno R. Net Delta Outflow Tulare Lake Friant- Kern Canal M San ill Joaqui er n R. top Kings n i R. K Kawea n a h R. e ws Tule R. e Fu a lc h I Kern R. ac s te a s bs e l l a
Central Valley WEAP Application
Robust Decision Making Iterative, analytic process designed to identify strategies that are robust to a wide range of planning uncertainties. Response Package Uncertainties: Climate and Land Use/Demography Outcome Metrics
XLRM Framework Defines Scope of Analysis Uncertain Factors (X) and Scenarios Management Strategies (L) and Response Packages Population Land use / Household factors demographic Employment factors scenarios (3) Climatic conditions Strategy cost factors Model (R) Temperature / precipitation scenarios (12) WEAP PA model for Central Valley Agricultural water use efficiency Urban water use efficiency Conjunctive management & groundwater storage Recycled municipal water Performance Metrics (M) Supply Reliability (Urban & Agriculture) Exports to Southern California Environmental flow requirements Costs
Downscaled GCM Data Represent Plausible Range of Future Climatic Conditions 13 climate sequences six climate models x two global emissions scenarios Historic climate run forward
Demographic and Land Use Scenarios Drive Changes in Demand Demographic and Land Use Factors
Performance of Current Approach Under a Single Scenario % Monthly IFRs Not Met Urban water supply reliability (%) Urban Reliability ~ 80% (through 2050) Single scenario Agricultural Reliability ~ 47% (through 2050) IFRs not met ~ 6% of months (through 2050) Current Approach Agricultural water supply reliability (%) 24
Performance of Current Approach Under 36 Scenarios % Monthly IFRs Not Met 36 Scenario Results Urban water supply reliability (%) Lower Performance Note: Under Robust Decision Making, no attempt is made to assign probabilities to any particular Current scenario. Approach Agricultural water supply reliability (%) 25
Analysis Identified and Characterized Poor Outcomes % Monthly IFRs Not Met Urban water supply reliability (%) X = Poor outcomes (bad for 2 of 3 metrics) Current Approach Agricultural water supply reliability (%) 26
Considered Water Management Strategies to Reduce This Vulnerability Urban water use efficiency Agricultural water use efficiency Groundwater recharge Recycled water use 27
Grouped Strategies into Response Packages for Analysis Response Packages Strategies Baseline (#1) #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 Urban Water Use Efficiency o (current) + + ++ ++ ++ +++ Agricultural Water Use Efficiency o o o + + + +++ Groundwater Recharge o o + o + +++ +++ Recycled Water Use o + ++ + ++ +++ +++ 28
Implementing Additional Strategies Reduces Vulnerability to Climate Uncertainty Better performance (decreasing number of scenarios in which performance is unsatisfactory) Baseline (#1) #2 #3 Reduced number of vulnerabilities #6 #4 #5 Increasing cost / effort 29
Implementing Additional Strategies Reduces Vulnerability to Climate Uncertainty Better performance (decreasing number of scenarios in which performance is unsatisfactory) Baseline (#1) #2 #3 Reduced number of vulnerabilities #6 #4 #5 Increasing cost / effort 30
Vulnerabilities Are Reduced With Response Packages Scope Analysis Evaluate Strategies Over Many Scenarios Augment Strategies Moderate Increases Characterize Vulnerabilities Summarize Tradeoffs Among Strategies Base Case Robust, Adaptive Strategies And Key Tradeoffs
Integration of Economics Models
Price ($) Fix Priority Shadow Value SWAP/SWEAP WEAP Considers water as an input for the production function to then calculate the willingness to pay or shadow value of water. Climate Driven hydrological model that systematically simulates the basin and the interdependence between regions and years Quantity Water 500 400 Quantity Water 300 200 100 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Thousands ALL REGIONS for Irrigated Agriculture are set at same priority (3)
Price Tranches 250 Glenn Colusa Irrigation District Water Demand Curve 200 150 100 50 0 350000 400000 450000 500000 550000 600000 650000 700000
okt-67 juuni-68 veebr-69 okt-69 okt-67 mai-68 dets-68 juuli-69 veebr-70 sept-70 apr-71 nov-71 juuni-72 jaan-73 aug-73 märts-74 okt-74 mai-75 dets-75 juuli-76 veebr-77 sept-77 apr-78 nov-78 juuni-79 jaan-80 aug-80 märts-81 okt-81 mai-82 dets-82 juuli-83 veebr-84 sept-84 apr-85 nov-85 juuni-86 jaan-87 aug-87 märts-88 okt-88 juuni-70 veebr-71 okt-71 juuni-72 veebr-73 okt-73 juuni-74 veebr-75 okt-75 juuni-76 veebr-77 okt-77 juuni-78 veebr-79 okt-79 juuni-80 veebr-81 okt-81 juuni-82 veebr-83 okt-83 juuni-84 veebr-85 okt-85 juuni-86 veebr-87 okt-87 juuni-88 okt-67 nov-68 dets-69 jaan-71 veebr-72 märts-73 apr-74 mai-75 juuni-76 juuli-77 aug-78 sept-79 okt-80 nov-81 dets-82 jaan-84 veebr-85 märts-86 apr-87 mai-88 juuni-89 juuli-90 aug-91 sept-92 okt-93 nov-94 dets-95 jaan-97 veebr-98 märts-99 apr-00 mai-01 juuni-02 juuli-03 aug-04 sept-05 Cubic Meter (Millions) Economic Results Hydrological Results Tranche 12 Cropping Patterns 6 000,00 Shasta Reservoir Storage Volume Rice Almond & Pist Other Dec WEAP 1990 T12 Crops reduced by 52% with $218.10 millions in Revenues 5 000,00 4 000,00 3 000,00 2 000,00 1 000,00 0,00 ECNW WEAP Tranche 9 Cropping Patterns Rice PrTom Almond & Pist Other Dec 507 West ECONWEAP 1990 Tranche 9 (plus 89% of Tranche 10) Level Production with $416.18 millions in Revenues ALFAL ALPIS CORN COTTN CUCUR DRYBN FALLOW GRAIN ONGAR OTHDEC OTHFLD OTHTRK PASTR PRTOM RICE SAFLR SBEET SUBTRP VINE 14% Increase in Revenue at Tranche 9 91% Increase in Revenues (T9 + 89% T10) Cubic Meters Millions Cubic Meters Millions 9 000,00 8 000,00 7 000,00 6 000,00 5 000,00 4 000,00 3 000,00 2 000,00 1 000,00 0,00 450,00 400,00 350,00 300,00 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00 0,00 Streamflows to 507 West from Sacramento River ECNW WEAP Water Supply to 507 West ECN WEAP
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