IPCC Bioenergy Report 2011 Floor van der Hilst on behalf of André Faaij Workshop: Agro-environmental impact of biofuels and bioenergy EUROCLIMA PROJECT Campinas, 30 November 1 December 2011 1
Biomass & bioenergy flows according to IEA + other refs (2008) IEA, 2008 2
Biomass & bioenergy flows according to IEA + other refs (2008) Type Approximate Primary Energy Traditional Biomass Accounted for in IEA statistics 30.7 Approximate Average Efficiency (%) Approximate Secondary Energy (EJ/yr) Estimated for informal sectors 10-20 (e.g. charcoal) 6-12 0.6 2.4 3-6 3 Total Traditional Biomass 37-43 3.6-8.4 Modern Bioenergy Electricity and CHP from Biomass, MSW, and Biogas 4.0 32 1.3 Heat in residential, public/ commercial buildings from 4.2 80 3.4 solid biomass Road transport fuels (ethanol and biodiesel) 3.1 60 1.9 Total Modern Bioenergy 11.3 58 6.6 IPCC, 2011
Issue/effect Key factors biomass potentials Importance Supply potential of biomass Improvement agricultural management *** Choice of crops *** Food demands and human diet *** Use of degraded land *** Competition for water *** Use of agricultural/forestry by-products ** Protected area expansion ** Water use efficiency ** Climate change ** Alternative protein chains ** Demand for biomaterials * 4 Demand potential of biomass Bio-energy demand versus supply ** Cost of biomass supply ** Learning in energy conversion ** Market mechanism food-feed-fuel ** Dornburg et al., 2010 Energy & Environmental Science
Bioenergy potential and deployment levels in 2050 2050 projections Figure 2.25 in IPCC-SRREN (2011) 5
Bioenergy from degraded land (example salt-affected land) 6 [Wicke et al, 2011, Energy & Environmental Science
Bioenergy technologies Also need to add biomaterial/chemical routes! 7 Figure 2.2 in IPCC-SRREN (2011)
Cost ranges various current bioenergy systems [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] 8
Range of commercially available RE technologies compared to recent non-re costs [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] 9
Cost projections for lignocellulosic ethanol and BTL diesel 10 Figure 2.22 in IPCC-SRREN (2011)
Projected production costs estimated for selected developing technologies 1 IGCC=Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] 11
GHG/MJ of major modern bioenergy chains vs. conventional fossil fuel options 12 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] Excluding (i)luc effects; these can have strong impacts!
Status iluc (an opinion) Diverging outcomes; more sophisticated approaches; from 0.8 to later analyses: 0.3 -> 0.2. More detailed regional studies: depends highly (Fully ) on rate of improvement in agricultural and livestock management. CGE: extrapolates past developments, very sensitive to input data, poor in tackling technological change iluc is a reactive concept while we actually want to be proactive in avoiding it altogether Why 2 dozen studies on defining iluc factors and (almost) none on mitigation of iluc? [Faaij, 2011] 13
Treats and opportunities of expansion of bioenergy production 14 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Key conclusions (I) Technical potential of 500 EJ/year by 2050, with large uncertainty around market and policy conditions that affect this potential. 100-300 EJ/year possible deployment levels by 2050. Major challenge but would contribute up to 1/3 to the world s primary energy demand in 2050. Bioenergy has significant potential to mitigate greenhouse gases if resources are sustainably developed and efficient technologies are applied. For the increased and sustainable use of bioenergy, proper design, implementation and monitoring of sustainability frameworks can minimize negative impacts and maximize benefits with regard to social, economic and environmental issues. 15 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Key conclusions (II) The impacts and performance of biomass production and use are region- and site-specific. Key options: E.g. sugarcane ethanol production, waste to-energy systems, efficient cookstoves, biomass-based CHP are competitive Lignocellulosic-based fuels, advanced bioelectricity options, and biorefinery concepts can offer competitive deployment of bioenergy in 2020-2030. Bio-CCS can offer negative carbon emissions. Advanced biomaterials promising but less understood. Potential role aquatic biomass (algae) highly uncertain. Rapidly changing policy contexts, recent market activity, increasing support for advanced biorefineries & lignocellulosic biofuel options, and in particular the development of sustainability criteria and frameworks, push bioenergy systems and their deployment in sustainable directions. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] 16
Thank you for your attention! More information http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report http://nws.chem.uu.nl/ a.p.c.faaij@uu.nl f.vanderhilst@uu.nl 17