Emissions of greenhouse gases

Emissions of greenhouse gases Emissions of CO 2 from transport (excluding international aviation and maritime transport) increased by 15% between 1990 and 1998, and now constitute 24 % of total CO 2 emissions. Road transport is the largest contributor (84 % of transport CO 2 emissions). The increase resulted mainly from the growth in road and air transport, since energy efficiency has hardly improved. Recent projections show an increase of 25 % by 2010 provided the agreement with the car industry to reduce CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars is fully implemented. Otherwise, emissions would increase by 35 % by 2010. The road transport sector is a small (7 %) but rapidly increasing source of nitrous oxide emissions, a side effect of the use of three-way catalysts fitted to petrol-engined motor vehicles, which caused an almost doubling of emissions between 1990 and 1998. If the trends in greenhouse gas emissions from transport persist, they could jeopardise the EU meeting its targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Reduction efforts have focused mainly on the private car: the voluntary agreement with the car industry led to a reduction in average CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars of almost 6 % between 1995 and 1999, but industry needs to enhance its efforts to reach the agreed target. In addition, it is likely that an additional potential benefit can be expected by addressing the road freight and aviation sectors. International aviation and maritime transport (not covered by the Kyoto Protocol) represented an additional 5 % of the total EU greenhouse emissions in 1998 (an increase of 33 % since 1990). Figure 1 - Transport emissions in the EU 280 260 Ind ex (19 90 = 10 0) 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 passenger-km tonne-km CO 2 - current trends CO 2 projections (with ACEA) CO 2 projections (without ACEA) N 20 Source: EEA (data reported by countries to UNFCCC and the EU Monitoring Mechanism) (EEA, 2000a; 2000b). Data on passenger-km and tonne-km from Eurostat, 2001; projections for 2010 from European Commission, 2000g Note : transport excludes emissions from international transport (UNFCCC) for 1990-1998, but for 2010 includes international aviation emissions (European Commission, 2000g). Version 20-08-2001 1

Objective Meet the EU target under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Definition Annual emissions (past and projected) of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxides (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), by sector with a focus on transport. Policy and targets According to the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted in 1997, the EU and its Member States are committed to reducing total emissions of a basket of six greenhouse gases by 8 % below the 1990 level over the period 2008-2012 and the central and eastern European (CEE) countries to reductions of 0 to 8 %. In June 1998, EU Member States agreed a system of burden sharing or target sharing. The Protocol does not address commitments for countries to reduce greenhouse emissions from international aviation and shipping. By September 2000, 84 Parties to the UNFCCC including the EU and the US had signed the Kyoto Protocol. However, only 30 Parties have ratified it and, as yet, no major developed country has ratified. The Protocol will enter into force when it has been ratified by at least 55 Parties to the Convention, including developed countries accounting for at least 55 % of carbon dioxide emissions from this group in 1990. Although on some issues progress was made at the sixth Conference of parties (COP6) of UNFCCC, no full agreement was achieved on rules for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Success at the next round of negotiations in UNFCCC in July 2001 is seen by many countries as essential for the Kyoto Protocol to be ratified by industrialised countries. The EU aims at ratification in 2002. Apart from the EU burden sharing agreement for total emissions, no sectoral targets have been agreed in the EU, although several Member States have done so within national action programmes. The Community's strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from passenger cars and improve fuel economy was endorsed by the Council in 1996. It aims at achieving an average CO 2 emission figure for new passenger cars of 120 g CO 2 /km by 2005, and 2010 at the latest. The strategy is based on three pillars: 1. Commitments of the automobile industry on fuel economy improvements; the Commission has established voluntary agreements about CO 2 emission reduction from new passenger cars with the European (ACEA), the Japanese (JAMA) and Korean (KAMA) Automobile Manufacturers Associations. All three agreements contain the same quantified CO 2 emission objective for the average new passenger car sold in the European Union, i.e. 140 g CO 2 /km (to be achieved by 2009 by JAMA and KAMA and by 2008 by ACEA). (European Commission, 1999b; 2000a; 2000b; 2000f) 2. Fuel-economy labelling of cars; the purpose of the Directive 1999/94/EC of 13 December 1999 is to ensure that the information relating to the fuel economy and CO 2 emissions of new passenger cars offered for sale or lease in the Community is made available to consumers (European Commission, 1999a). 3. The promotion of car fuel efficiency by fiscal measures The Communication on transport and CO 2 (European Commission, 1998) identifies a series of measures to reduce CO 2 emissions, such as: improved logistics and more efficient freight operations, technical improvements, promotion of rail, short sea shipping, walking, cycling and public transport, and air traffic management. In 2000 the Commission published a Communication on a new European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) (European Commission, 2000e), which is being developed with the Version 20-08-2001 2

involvement of stakeholders (Member States, various Commission DGs (transport, energy), business NGOs and environmental NGOs). The transport working group of the European Climate Change Programme identified the following measures as having the best potential to reduce greenhouse gases from transport: fiscal measures for passenger cars, a voluntary agreement with the car industry on light commercial vehicles and further technological improvements for passenger cars (e.g. enhanced environmentally friendly cars) and fuels, improvement in transport infrastructure and charging, freight intermodal/multimodel transport and logistics efficiency improvements, awareness raising and behavioural change (ECCP, 2001). Transport is also a priority target sector of the Commission s action plan to improve energy efficiency in the EU (European Commission, 2000c). Findings Figure 2 Total EU greenhouse gas emissions Emissions of the Six Greenhouse Gases (CO2, N2O, CH4, HFC, PFC and SF6) 1990-1998 4500 4000 3500 GWP (Mt CO2 equivalent) 3000 2500 2000 1500 EU15 total Greenhouse gases 2008-2012 target Total transport 1000 500 0 Source: EEA (data reported by countries to UNFCCC and the EU Monitoring Mechanism) (EEA, 2000a; 2000b).. Notes: Target for 2008-2012 is the Kyoto Protocol target of a reduction of 8% from 1990 levels for the basket of six gases excluding land use change and forestry. Global warming potentials used (to give total GWP emissions in Mt carbon dioxide equivalent): carbon dioxide=1, methane=21 and nitrous oxide=310 and different country specific values for each of the F-gases. Transport includes road transport and other transport, which means railways, navigation (water-borne vessels), civil aviation and most remaining transport activities (including pipelines and off-road activities). It excludes emissions from international transport (see box greenhouse gas emissions from international transport ). Total emissions of greenhouse gases The contribution of CO 2 to the total EU15 emissions in carbon dioxide equivalents is approximately 81 %; the contributions of other greenhouse gases are CH 4 9 %, N 2 O 9 % and fluorinated gases 1 %. Overall EU greenhouse gas emissions have shown a small decrease between 1990 and 1998, of 2 %, due mainly to a stabilisation of carbon dioxide emissions and substantial reductions in CH 4 and N 2 O emissions (EEA, 2000b). This improvement is to be attributed mainly to improvements in the industry, agriculture, waste management, coal mining and electricity sector. Emissions from transport continue to rise dramatically. Projections suggest that existing policies and measures (including the Version 20-08-2001 3

agreement with the car industry to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from new passenger cars) would at best reduce total EU greenhouse emissions by 1 % by 2010, from 1990 levels (European Commission, 2000d). To achieve the Kyoto target of 8 % reduction the EU will need substantial further emission reductions of all six greenhouse gases and of carbon dioxide in particular. The actual emission reductions will depend on the extent to which the various Member States use the Kyoto flexible mechanisms and on the progress of domestic policies and measures in achieving greenhouse gas emission reductions. Transport share The share contributed by transport (i.e. road transport and railways, navigation (water-borne vessels), civil aviation and most remaining transport activities (including pipelines and off-road activities) has risen from 17 % in 1990 to 20 % in 1998. This represents an increase in emissions from transport of 17% (from 709 Mt CO 2 equiv in 1990 to 826 Mt CO 2 equiv in 1998). International aviation and maritime transport International aviation and maritime transport, which are not included in the countries emission inventories (see Box 2), represented 5 % of the total EU emissions in 1998 (4 % in 1990). Figure 2: CO 2 emissions by sector, EU 4000 3500 3000 million tonnes 2500 2000 1500 Other Waste Agriculture Air transport Inland navigation Rail transport Road Transport Industry Fugitive Emissions Energy Industries 1000 500 0 Source: EEA, ETC/AE data collected from country submissions to UNFCCC. Notes: Excludes Land use change and forestry and emissions from international transport (shipping and aviation). Target for 2000 is the 5EAP target of stabilisation of carbon dioxide emissions by 2000 at 1990 levels. No specific targets beyond the six gas basket target of the Kyoto Protocol have been set for carbon dioxide beyond 2000. Split between different transport modes taken from Eurostat. Version 20-08-2001 4

Figure 3 EU CO 2 transport emissions by mode 900 800 700 600 million tonnes 500 400 Air Inland navigation Rail Road transport 300 200 100 0 Source: EEA (data reported by countries to UNFCCC and the EU Monitoring Mechanism) (EEA, 2000a; 2000b).. Notes: Split between different transport modes taken from Eurostat. CO 2 emissions Road transport CO 2 emissions from the transport sector increased by 15 % between 1990 and 1998 (from 700 to 800 million tonnes). This increase arises from increases in road and air transport. The largest contributor to transport CO 2 emissions is road transport (84 % of the emissions in 1998). In 1990, the share of road transport in total CO 2 emissions was 18 %, which increased to 20 % in 1998. The upward trend in CO 2 emissions from transport is due mainly to growing traffic volumes, as there has been very little change in average energy use per vehicle-km. In future, policies such as the voluntary agreements with ACEA and JAMA and KAMA are expected to result in decreases in average energy use. The first annual report on the effectiveness of implementing the Community Strategy to Reduce CO 2 Emissions from Cars (European Commission, 2000f) shows a reduction of almost 6 % in CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars between 1995 and 1999. However in order to meet the final target all three co-operating carmanufacturing associations (the European ACEA, the Japanese JAMA and the Korean KAMA) will need to increase their efforts. Air transport Air transport emissions rose from 2 to 3 % of total CO 2 emissions in the same period. The rate of increase in emissions from air transport is higher than for road transport, with a 37 % rise in air transport and a 14 % rise in road (between 1990 and 1998). The proportion of the emissions provided by air transport also increased from 11 % to 13 % in the same period. Outlook Socio-economic trends suggest that the demand for energy is likely to increase, challenging the achievements of implemented policies and measures, increased energy efficiency, further fuel switching and further use of non-fossil sources of energy. CO 2 emissions from transport are projected to increase still further by 2010, by 25 % (assuming implementation of the ACEA agreement, see below) according to the recent DG Environment study Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission Reduction Objectives for Climate Change (European Commission, 2000g). Version 20-08-2001 5

Member States Without this agreement the increase would 35 %. Combined with projected reductions in other sectors, this increase results in a projected increase of 4 % in total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (with existing policies and measures) (European Commission, 2000d). There is therefore a need for further policies and measures to achieve the Kyoto Protocol target for all sectors including transport. Total annual vehicle-km are expected to rise for each type of vehicle category, with the largest absolute increase for passenger cars, but the greatest percentage increase for trucks. Road passenger CO 2 emissions were expected to increase by 29 % between 1990 and 2010 without the ACEA agreement. With full implementation of the ACEA agreement these CO 2 emissions would still increase, but still by 11 %. For all passenger CO 2 emissions, these increase are 37 % and 22 %, respectively. Road freight CO 2 emissions are also expected to increase substantially between 1990 and 2010, with the projections showing a 33 % rise. The ACEA agreement does not include trucks and so has no effect on road freight emissions. The largest increases in CO 2 emissions from transport are expected in Ireland, Portugal, Greece and the Netherlands, all of which show increases of over 70 % (without the ACEA agreement) or over 60 % (without the ACEA agreement) between 1990 and 2010. The smallest increases are projected for Denmark and Finland CO 2 emission projections 1990 emissions 2010 baseline 2010 baseline with ACEA agreement Change 1990-2010 baseline Change 1990-2010 with ACEA CO 2 (Mt) CO 2 (Mt) CO 2 (Mt) % % Total (passenger) 500 683 608 37% 22% Total (freight) 233 310 310 33% 33% Total (all) 734 993 918 35% 25% Notes: Figures include domestic and international aviation (both passenger and freight). International maritime transport is excluded. Source: (European Commission, 2000g) Version 20-08-2001 6

Figure 4 EU CO 2 emissions and projections from road transport (by mode) 900 800 700 600 Mt of CO2 500 400 Trucks Buses Motorcycles Passenger cars 300 200 100 0 1990 2010 baseline 2010 baseline with ACEA agreement Source: European Commission, 2000g Figure 5: N 2 O emissions by sector, EU 1400 1200 1000 ktonnes of N2O 800 600 Other Waste Agriculture Transport Industry Fugitive Emissions Energy Industries EU15 400 200 0 Source : EEA (data reported by countries to UNFCCC and the EU Monitoring Mechanism) (EEA, 2000a; 2000b). Notes: No specific targets have been set for nitrous oxide. The Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 is a reduction of 8% from 1990 levels for the basket of six gases including nitrous oxide. Version 20-08-2001 7

Figure 6 - N 2 O Emissions from Transport: 1990 and 2010 outlooks 90 80 70 60 kt N20 50 40 30 Water Air Rail Road 20 10 0 1990 2010 Year Source: European Commission, 2000g N 2 O emissions Outlook Nitrous oxide is a direct greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 310 times that of carbon dioxide. The contribution to the total EU15 emissions in carbon dioxide equivalents is approximately 9 %. It is the third most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane. The transport sector is a small (7 %) but rapidly increasing source of nitrous oxide emissions, a side effect of the use of three-way catalysts fitted to petrolengined motor vehicles, which caused an almost doubling of emissions between 1990 and 1998. It is not possible to come to firm conclusions about the emission trend because of the large uncertainty in the emission estimates for nitrous oxide. Projections assuming existing policies and measures show a decrease in total N 2 O emissions by 2010 relative to 1990 (European Commission, 2000d). Controls on industrial emissions will help reduce emissions. In contrast, N 2 O emissions from transport are expected to rise substantially between 1990 and 2010 (European Commission, 2000g) due mainly to the increase in passenger cars equipped with catalytic converters, and their higher N 2 O emissions. Emissions from aviation are also expected to increase substantially as a result of the increase in air transport; emissions from rail are expected to decrease as a result of electrification. However, since transport is not a large source, this will not have a major impact on the overall trend of total EU greenhouse gas emissions. Box 1 Aviation and the global atmosphere (IPCC, 1999) Aircraft emit gases and particles directly into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where they have an impact on atmospheric composition. These gases and particles alter the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, ozone, and methane. They trigger formation of condensation trails (contrails) and may increase cirrus cloudiness. All these contribute to climate change. Version 20-08-2001 8

Global passenger air travel, as measured in passenger-km, is projected to grow by about 5 % per year between 1990 and 2015, whereas total aviation fuel use is projected to increase by 3 % per year, over the same period, the difference being due mainly to improved aircraft efficiency. All scenarios assume that technological improvements leading to reduced emissions per revenue passenger-km will continue and that optimal use of airspace availability is achieved by 2050. Emissions of carbon dioxide by aircraft were 0.14 Gt C/year in 1992. This is about 2 % of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 1992 or about 13 % of carbon dioxide emissions from all transportation sources. The range of scenarios considered by IPCC projects that aircraft emissions of carbon dioxide will continue to grow and by 2050 will be 0.23 to 1.45 Gt C/year. The climate impacts of emissions can be compared using the concept of radiative forcing. The radiative forcing in 1992 by aircraft was 0.05 Wm-2 or about 3.5 % of the total radiative forcing by all anthropogenic activities. For the reference scenario, the radiative forcing by aircraft in 2050 is 0.19 Wm-2 or 5 % of the total radiative forcing in the mid-range IPCC scenario. This equates to aircraft contributing about 0.05 C to global warming in 2050, compared to a total of 1.5 to 6 C projected by 2100 due to all sources of greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2001). There is a range of options to reduce the impact of aviation emissions, including changes in aircraft and engine technology, fuel, operational practices, and regulatory and economic measures. Substantial aircraft and engine technology advances and the air traffic management improvements are already incorporated in the aircraft emissions scenarios used for IPCC climate change calculations. Other operational measures, which have the potential to reduce emissions, and alternative fuels, were not assumed in the scenarios. Further technology advances have the potential to provide additional fuel and emissions reductions. In practice, some of the improvements are expected to take place for commercial reasons. The timing and scope of regulatory, economic, and other options may affect the introduction of improvements and may affect demand for air transport. Box 2 EU Greenhouse gas emissions from international transport Greenhouse gas emissions from EU Member States reported as emissions from international transport (so-called International bunkers ) represented 4 % (168 million tonnes CO 2 equiv) of the total EU emissions in 1990 and 5% (224 million tonnes CO 2 equiv) in 1998. There was therefore a 33 % increase in EU emissions reported to originate from this source between 1990 and 1998. According to the UNFCCC reporting Guidelines, "inventories should include greenhouse gas emissions and removals taking place within national (including administered) territories and offshore areas over which the country has jurisdiction." One of the qualifications of the national territory principle in the Guidelines is "Emissions based upon fuel sold to ships or aircraft engaged in international transport should not be included in national totals but reported separately." International marine and aviation bunkers are reported separately. However, it is not known whether all EU Member States apply the Guidelines correctly. In addition, it is not clear from the Guidelines whether, for the EU as the sole instance of a regional economic integration organisation, maritime and air traffic between EU Member States, EU Member States and the overseas countries and territories, and the overseas countries and territories themselves, should be considered as "belonging" to the EU. It is assumed that at least each Member State applies its own definitions consistently. Emissions from international flights and shipping are excluded from the emission reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol, although emissions from domestic transport are not. The UNFCCC Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice is currently considering the Version 20-08-2001 9

issue of emissions from international flights. Parties to the UNFCCC are required to act to limit or reduce emissions from international flights working through the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The ICAO has asked its Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP), to study policy options to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions from civil aviation. For international shipping, the Kyoto Protocol requires developed countries to pursue action through the International Maritime Organization. References ECCP, 2001: European Climate Change Programme report 2001 EEA, 2000a: Annual European Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1998, EEA Technical Report 41, Copenhagen. EEA, 2000b: European Community and Member States greenhouse gas emission trends 1990-1998, EEA Topic report 6/2000, Copenhagen. EEA, 2000c: Comparison between National and Central Estimates for Air Emissions from Road Transport for TERM, Draft Technical Report by ETC/AE for EEA, Nov 2000. EEA, 2001: Environmental Signals 2001. European Environment Agency. Copenhagen European Commission, 1998: Communication on Transport and CO 2 - Developing a Community approach. COM (1998) 204, 1998. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Luxembourg European Commission, 1999a: Car labelling Directive. European Parliament and of the Council Directive 1999/94/EC of 13 December 1999 relating to the availability of consumer information on fuel economy and CO 2 emission in respect of the marketing of new passenger cars. Official Journal of the European Communities, L 012. Luxembourg, 18 January 2000. European Commission, 1999b: Commission Recommendation of 5 February 1999 on the reduction of CO2 emissions from passenger cars, COM (1999) 107, Official Journal of the European Communities, L 40/49, 13 February 1999 European Commission, 2000a: Commission Recommendation of 13 April 2000 on the reduction of CO2 emissions from passenger cars (JAMA), COM (2000) 803, Official Journal of the European Communities, L 100/57, 20 April 2000 European Commission, 2000b: Commission Recommendation of 13 April 2000 on the reduction of CO2 emissions from passenger cars (KAMA), COM (2000) 801, Official Journal of the European Communities, L 100/55, 20 April 2000 European Commission, 2000c: Action Plan to improve energy efficiency in the European Community, COM(2000) 247. Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Brussels. European Commission, 2000d: Report under Council Decision 1999/296/EC for a monitoring mechanism of Community greenhouse gas emissions, COM(2000) 749, Brussels European Commission, 2000e: EU policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: Towards a European Climate Change Programme (ECCP). COM (2000) 88, Brussels. European Commission, 2000f: Implementing the Community Strategy to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Cars. First annual report on the effectiveness of the strategy. COM(2000) 615. Brussels. European Commission, 2000g: Economic evaluation of sectoral emission reduction objectives for climate change, Economic evaluation of emissions reductions in the transport sector of the EU, Contribution by AEA and NTUA to a study for DG Environment, December 2000. Version 20-08-2001 10

Eurostat, 2001: Transport and Environment: Statistics for the Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism (TERM) for the European Union, data 1980-1999. European Commission (Eurostat), Luxembourg 2001. {Version 19/12/00} IPCC, 1999: Aviation and the global atmosphere, IPCC/WMO/UNEP. IPCC, 2001: Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Contribution by working group 1, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Summary for Policymakers. WMO/UNEP/IPCC UNFCCC, 2000a: Guidelines on reporting and review, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn UNFCCC, 2000b: Report on national greenhouse gas inventory data from Annex 1 Parties for 1990 to 1998. FCCC/SBI/2000/11, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn Data EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES UNIT: MILLION TONNES CO 2 EQUIV EU15 total Greenhouse gases 4180 4182 4078 3985 4004 4049 4133 4071 4091 2008-2012 target 3845 3845 3845 3845 3845 3845 3845 3845 3845 pollutant 1990 1998 CO2 3320 3327 CH4 436 364 N2O 393 354 HFC, PFC & SF6 31 46 Sector 1990 1998 Energy Industries 1166 1091 Fugitive Emissions 110 83 Industry 940 874 Transport 709 826 Agriculture 412 398 Waste 155 122 Other 688 697 Meta data Technical information 1. Data source. Official data reported national total and sectoral emissions to UNFCCC and EU Monitoring Mechanism, as compiled by EEA in the report (and related database) European Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1998, Technical Report 41 (May 2000). Additional data for HFC, PFC and SF6 for countries, that did not submit data to UNFCCC or the EU Monitoring Mechanism, come from the report Economic Evaluation of emission reductions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in Europe (Ecofys, 2000), prepared for the European Commission). Split to different road transport modes from Eurostat. Projected data from Economic evaluation of sectoral emission reduction objectives for climate change, Economic evaluation of emissions reductions in the transport sector of the EU, Contribution by AEA and NTUA to a study for DG Environment, December 2000. (European Commission, 2000g). 2. Description of data: Annual emissions of CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 in UNFCCC reporting format (in million tonnes) converted to their global warming potential where necessary (100 year time horizon) for addition and comparison with the Kyoto Protocol targets. 3. Geographical coverage. EU15 Version 20-08-2001 11

4. Temporal coverage. Historical data: 1990-1998. All countries have reported emissions of CO 2, N 2 O and CH 4 for 1990 1998. Projected data: 2010. 5. Methodology and frequency of data collection. Annual official data submission to UNFCCC and EU Monitoring mechanism. 6. Methodology of data manipulation. This data was multiplied by GWP weights (CO 2 1, CH 4 21, N 2 O 310 SF6 23900) to give total GWP emissions in million tonnes CO 2 equivalent. HFC and PFC have been reported by the Member States and estimated by Ecofys as million tonnes CO 2 equivalent. Split of total transport emissions into different modes used Eurostat data. Qualitative information 7. Strength and weakness (at data level). Strength : officially reported data following agreed procedures, e.g. regarding source sector split. The GWP weighting is the agreed UNFCCC and EU Monitoring Mechanism procedure. Weakness : Available datasets do not include full EU15 for early years 1980 1989. Data available are inconsistent with the UNFCCC datasets and less reliable. Eurostat data used to split into different modes was not consistent with CO 2 totals or sector distribution from ETC/AE database. Difference in total CO 2 emissions between the two sources is up to 10 %. HFC, PFC and SF6 are not reported by all Member States. The Ecofys data may not be directly comparable with the data reported to the UNFCCC due to differences in the methods to estimate EU totals from partial data reporting. 8. Reliability, accuracy, robustness, uncertainty (at data level). The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in GWP weighted emission estimates, in Europe, is likely to be better than ±20 %. While uncertainties in the estimates of some of the gases is much larger than this, the dominance of CO 2 in the GWP emissions results in a lower uncertainty. 9. Further work required (for data level and indicator level). Countries should improve the completeness of the time series of their estimates (filling gaps). Further validation and checking is the responsibility of the country and needs especially to lead to improved detailed sectoral time series of emissions. There is also a need for further validation and checking within the framework of UNFCCC and EU Monitoring Mechanism, as recommended by the IPCC Good Practice Guide. HFC, PFC and SF6 should be reported by all countries for each year together with their GWP values. EU15 CO 2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR UNIT: MILLION TONNES CO2 EQUIV Energy Industries 1148 1151 1116 1061 1064 1070 1077 1042 1076 Fugitive Emissions 25 24 20 20 22 23 24 23 23 Industrial Sources 787 756 729 704 737 752 739 757 747 Transport 692 706 730 735 742 749 767 778 798 Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Waste 5 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 Other 662 702 667 678 648 659 723 672 675 EU15 3320 3344 3267 3203 3217 3260 3336 3278 3327 2000 Target 3320 3320 3320 3320 3320 3320 3320 3320 3320 Energy Industries 1148 1151 1116 1061 1064 1070 1077 1042 1076 Fugitive Emissions 25 24 20 20 22 23 24 23 23 Industry 787 756 729 704 737 752 739 757 747 Road Transport 587 600 620 624 627 632 645 653 667 Rail transport 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Inland navigation 19 20 21 20 20 19 20 19 18 Air transport 77 78 81 83 87 90 95 99 106 Version 20-08-2001 12

Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Waste 5 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 Other 662 702 667 678 648 659 723 672 675 Total 3320 3344 3267 3203 3217 3260 3336 3278 3327 EU15 N 2 O Emissions by sector (kilo-tonnes) Energy Industries 55 55 55 55 53 57 59 55 43 Fugitive Emissions 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Industrial Sources 392 385 365 330 345 345 353 342 256 Transport 40 41 46 51 57 62 67 68 79 Agriculture 713 689 661 649 664 662 696 699 701 Waste 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 Other 52 57 50 50 52 50 51 49 44 EU15 1268 1245 1196 1153 1190 1194 1244 1230 1142 EU15 CO 2 PROJECTIONS FOR TRANSPORT Passenger 1990 emissions million tonnes CO 2 Baseline 2010 million tonnes CO 2 Baseline 2010 with ACEA agreement Change 1990-2010 Change 1990-2010 with ACEA agreement million % change % change tonnes CO 2 Cars 367 479 408 31% 11% Motorcycles 7 8 8 14% 12% Trains 7 1 1-89% -89% Buses 27 29 29 7% 5% Aviation 1 82 153 149 87% 83% Navigation 2 11 14 14 24% 22% Total (passenger) 500 683 608 37% 22% Freight Trucks 222 296 296 33% 33% Trains 2 1 1-62% -62% Navigation 9 13 13 40% 40% Total (freight) 233 310 310 33% 33% Total (all) 734 993 918 35% 25% SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2000G CO 2 PROJECTIONS FOR TRANSPORT BY MEMBER STATE 1990 emissions million tonnes CO 2 Baseline 2010 Baseline 2010 with ACEA agreeme nt million tonnes CO 2 million tonnes CO 2 Change 1990-2010 Change 1990-2010 with ACEA agreement % change % change Austria 15.2 19.4 17.8 27% 17% Version 20-08-2001 13

Belgium 22.6 33.3 30.9 47% 36% Denmark 13.3 14.8 13.9 11% 4% Finland 12.5 14.6 13.5 17% 8% France 122.1 156.6 144.6 28% 18% Germany 168.8 215.3 196.0 28% 16% Greece 17.2 29.5 28.1 72% 64% Ireland 5.8 10.4 9.6 79% 65% Italy 96.6 132.1 121.6 37% 26% Netherlands 30.0 51.9 48.7 73% 62% Portugal 11.0 19.7 18.3 78% 66% Spain 65.6 101.3 95.3 54% 45% Sweden 20.6 25.4 23.1 23% 12% UK 132.3 168.8 156.6 28% 18% EU15 733.8 993.1 918.0 35% 25% SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2000G Version 20-08-2001 14