What s Next for Designations?

What s Next for Designations? EUEC Phoenix, AZ January 31 - February 2, 2011 Gale Lea Rubrecht

SO2, Ozone & PM2.5 NAAQS SO2 Primary 11/16/09 Proposal 06/02/10 Final Ozone Reconsideration 01/06/10 Proposal 07/29/11 Final PM2.5 02/2011 Proposal 10/2011 Final 2

Other NAAQS Reviews NO2 Primary 06/26/09 Proposal 01/22/10 Final CO 01/31/11 Proposal 08/12/11 Final NO2/SO2 Secondary 07/12/11 Proposal 03/20/12 - Final Lead 11/2013 Proposal 09/2014 Final 3

Ozone NAAQS 03/2008 EPA promulgates Ozone NAAQS and establishes 75 ppb level. 09/2009 EPA announces reconsideration. 01/2010 EPA proposes Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS EPA proposes primary standard of 60 to 70 ppb and secondary standard. EPA says it will finalize the Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS by August 2010. EPA stays 2008 Ozone NAAQS Designations. July 29, 2011 EPA expects to finalize Ozone NAAQS Reconsideration Rule after CASAC input and public comment period. Source: Mississippi v. EPA, No. 08-1200 (D.C. Cir.). 4

2008 Ozone NAAQS Designation Schedule 2008 Ozone NAAQS 03/12/10 Original date for designations March 2009 States submit recommendations for 2008 Ozone NAAQS designations. 2010 EPA extends the deadline for 2008 Ozone NAAQS designations to March 12, 2011. March 12, 2011 EPA said if it does not timely complete its reconsideration of the 2008 Ozone NAAQS, it will move forward to complete designations for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS using the States designations recommendations. 5

Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS Designation Schedule January 2010 EPA proposes designation schedules. Primary NAAQS: EPA proposes accelerated schedule. Final designations in less than 1 year vs. 2 years (i.e., August 2011). States submit recommendations in 129 days vs. 1 year (i.e., January 2011). Seasonal secondary NAAQS: EPA requests comment on two alternative schedules. Same accelerated schedule as for primary standard, or Traditional 2-year schedule allowed under CAA; States submit recommendations in 1 year. 6

Counties With Monitors Violating Proposed Primary 8-hour Ground-level Ozone Standards 0.060-0.070 parts per million (Based on 2007 2009 Air Quality Data) EPA will not designate areas as nonattainment on these data, but likely on 2008 2010 data which are expected to show improved air quality. 420 counties violate 0.070 ppm 161 additional counties violate 0.065 ppm for a total of 581 74 additional counties violate 0.060 ppm for a total of 655 > 0.060 ppm > 0.065 ppm > 0.070 ppm Notes: 1. No monitored counties outside the continental U.S. violate. 2. EPA is proposing to determine compliance with a revised primary ozone standard by rounding the 3-year average to three decimal places. 7

Counties With Monitors Violating Proposed Secondary Seasonal Ground-Level Ozone Standards 7 15 parts per million - hours (Based on 2007 2009 Air Quality Data) EPA will not designate areas as nonattainment on these data, but likely on 2008 2010 data which are expected to show improved air quality. 83 counties violate 15 ppm-hours 424 additional counties violate 7 ppm-hours for a total of 507 No monitored counties outside the continental U.S. violate. > 7 ppm-hours > 15 ppm-hours 8

Additional counties that would violate a W126 secondary standard compared to alternative primary standards (based on 2007-2009 data) 7 ppmhours 15 ppm-hours 21 ppm-hours 0.060 ppm 3 0 0 0.065 ppm 11 0 0 0.070 ppm 112 3 0 Source: Ozone NAAQS Implementation presentation by Scott Mathias, Associate Director, USEPA Air Quality Policy Division, OAQPS (Sept. 2010). 9

Possible Number of Areas (as defined below) Violating Alternative Primary Standards (based on 2007-2009 data) Number of Areas (County is largest area) Number of Areas (CBSA is largest area) Number of Areas (CSA is largest area) >0.060 ppm 655 413 349 >0.065 ppm 581 359 300 >0.070 ppm 420 241 196 Source: Ozone NAAQS Implementation presentation by Scott Mathias, Associate Director, USEPA Air Quality Policy Division, OAQPS (Sept. 2010). 10

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MOG Modeled Results (8-hr Ozone) Source: Alpine Geophysics/Environ Memo to MOG (Sep. 28, 2010). 13

Recent Events November 2008 President Obama elected. November 2010 Midterm elections; President Obama, in his words, takes a shellacking ; Republicans control the House. January 18, 2011 President Obama Executive Order on Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review. January 28, 2011 White House announces resignation of Carol M. Browner as director of the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy in the Obama Administration. November 2012 Next Presidential election. 14

Revised Designations Guidance Description of each factor and information that might be used to assess. 5-factors: air quality data, emissions-related data, meteorology, geography/topography, jurisdictional boundaries. Guidance on qualifying for rural transport area classification. Potential for partial counties in certain cases. Include ozone source apportionment modeling results which estimates the combined impact of multiple factors (emissions, meteorology, geography). 5-factor TSD template Source: Ozone NAAQS Implementation presentation by Scott Mathias, Associate Director, USEPA Air Quality Policy Division, OAQPS (Sept. 2010). 15

New Boundary Decision Criteria? Suggest Census-defined CSA/CBSA is starting point for technical analysis; analysis could support smaller or larger area. Possible decision guides?: Counties in CSA/CBSA that contribute at least ppb ozone to any violating monitor in the CSA/CBSA are presumed in? NAA boundary to include sufficient area (e.g., counties or parts of counties) to account for at least % of total ozone contribution from CSA/CBSA counties to violating monitor(s)? Nearby includes any area within CSA/CBSA? Beyond that considered to be long-range transport? Source: Ozone NAAQS Implementation presentation by Scott Mathias, Associate Director, USEPA Air Quality Policy Division, OAQPS (Sept. 2010). 16

For Classifications, EPA is considering Using the same approach EPA used for the 1997 NAAQS. Specifying the Extreme threshold as either the actual DV of the area with the highest DV at the time EPA designates, or a value approximately mid-way between the two highest DVs at the time EPA finalizes the implementation rule. Proposing that where states submitted voluntary reclassification requests under the 1997 NAAQS, EPA would treat those requests as applying to this standard unless the state says otherwise. Source: Ozone NAAQS Implementation presentation by Scott Mathias, Associate Director, USEPA Air Quality Policy Division, OAQPS (Sept. 2010). 17

Next Ozone NAAQS Review Proposal June 2013 Final March 2014 18

Designations Schedule for SO2 Primary NAAQS 06/02/10 Final rule signed setting SO2 Primary NAAQS at 75 ppb. 06/03/11 Governors submit to EPA state recommendations. 02/04/12 EPA sends 120-day letter to States and notifies public via Federal Register. 06/03/12 Final designations. 19

SO2 Designations Areas that have both monitoring data and appropriate refined modeling results showing no violations will be designated as Attainment. Areas with monitored violations will be designated as Nonattainment. All other areas will be designated as Unclassifiable and must complete a modeled attainment/maintenance demonstration by June 2013. Source: 75 Fed. Reg. 35,520 (June 22, 2010). 20

Counties With Monitors Currently Violating the Revised Primary 1-Hour Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Standard of 75 ppb Source: EPA web site. 21

MRPO Emission Trends (SO 2 ) Thousands 5,000 4,500 MRPO Major Source Category Summary Annual SO2 Emissions 4,000 Annual Emissions (Tons) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Miscellaneous Off-highway Vehicles Highway Vehicles Industrial Processes Other Fuel Combustion Industrial Fuel Combustion Electric Utility Fuel Combustion Source: Alpine Geophysics/Environ Air Quality Review, attachment to MOG s comments on proposed Ozone Reconsideration Rule. 22

VISTAS Emission Trends (SO 2 ) Th o u sa n d 7,000 6,000 VISTAS Major Source Category Summ ary Annu al SO2 Emissions 5,000 A n n u al E m issio n s (T 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 19 99 2 000 2 001 2002 2003 200 4 200 5 20 06 2 007 2 008 2009 Miscellaneous Off-highway Vehicles Highway Vehicles Industrial Processes Other Fuel Combustion Industrial Fuel Combustion Elec tric Utility Fuel Combustion Source: Alpine Geophysics/Environ Air Quality Review, attachment to MOG s comments on proposed Ozone Reconsideration Rule. 23

MANE-VU Emission Trends (SO 2 ) MANE-VU Major Source Category Summary Annual SO2 Emissions Thousands 3,000 2,500 Annual Emissions (Tons) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Miscellaneous Off-highway Vehicles Highway Vehicles Industrial Processes Other Fuel Combustion Industrial Fuel Combustion Electric Utility Fuel Combustion Source: Alpine Geophysics/Environ Air Quality Review, attachment to MOG s comments on proposed Ozone Reconsideration Rule. 24

PM2.5 NAAQS Designations PM2.5 NAAQS 02/2011 Proposal 10/2011 Final PM2.5 Designations Effective Date December 2013 25

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Lead Effective Date of Designations for Other NAAQS November 2010/2011 (extra time for new monitors) NO2 Primary CO February 2012 September 2013 NO2/SO2 Secondary April 2014 29

Contact Information Gale Lea Rubrecht Jackson Kelly PLLC 500 Lee Street East, Suite 1600 Charleston, WV 25301 Tel: 304-340-1200 E-mail: galelea@jacksonkelly.com Gale Lea Rubrecht