IEA CCS update Tristan Stanley International Energy Agency CSLF Policy Group, Abu Dhabi 4 May 2017
20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage 1. Two decades of CCS progress 2. Towards well below 2 C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/
Two decades of significant progress 16 (now 17) large-scale projects operating Portfolio is becoming more diverse, including coal-fired power generation, oil sand upgrading and steel manufacture New projects advancing 6 more projects in construction, most due to commence in next 12-18 months Technology is now proven in many applications; widespread deployment can deliver further cost reductions Scotford Upgrader (Source: Shell) Al Reyadah (Source: The National) Parish Petra Nova (Source: NRG) Gorgon (Source: Chevron)
Policy support has fluctuated Source: IEA (2016), 20 years of CCS: Accelerating Future Deployment. Adapted from SBC Energy Institute (2016), Low Carbon Energy Technologies Fact Book Update: Carbon Capture and Storage at a Crossroads.
Investment in CCS projects USD million 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Before 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Private investment in large-scale projects Public investment in large-scale projects Around USD 30 billion in public funding announcements were made between 2007-2010 corresponding to a peak in CCS investment decisions 80% of capital investment has been from private sources
Global energy emissions peaked? Global energy-related CO 2 emissions 35 35 30 30 25 25 Significant and sustained decline in emissions needed for a 2 C target (2DS) 20 20 Gt Gt 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2010 1980 2011 1981 2012 1982 2013 1983 2014 1984 2015 1985 2016 1986 2017 1987 2018 2019 1988 2020 1989 2021 1990 2022 1991 2023 1992 2024 1993 2025 1994 2026 1995 2027 1996 2028 1997 2029 1998 2030 1999 2031 2000 2032 2033 2001 2034 2002 2035 2003 2036 2004 2037 2005 2038 2006 2039 2007 2040 2008 2041 2009 2042 2010 2043 2011 2044 2012 2045 2013 2046 2047 2014 2048 2015 2049 2016 2050 Three consecutive years of stable emissions alongside global GDP growth
A portfolio of technologies is needed to meet a 2 C target Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO 2 reductions 45 40 4DS Renewables 32% GtCO 2 35 30 25 20 Energy efficiency 32% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% 15 10 5 2DS CCS 15% 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 CCS delivers 15% of the emissions reductions in the shift from a 4 C pathway to 2 C Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2DS
Shifting to well below : Targeting remaining emissions in the 2DS Remaining CO 2 emissions in the 2DS in 2050 40 30 Other transformation Agriculture GtCO 2 20 Power Buildings 10 Transport 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 Industry Industry the largest source of emissions in 2050 (45%); accounts for 33% of aggregate emissions to 2050 Power sector virtually decarbonised by 2050; but is the second-largest source of cumulative emissions in the period to 2050 (29%)
CCS is not on track for a 2 C future CCS has moved forward but is far from meeting its potential according to the 2DS If all projects known today were to proceed, the maximum capture rate would be less than 70 MtCO 2 Capture potential of the project pipeline, by sector. Data source: GCCSI
Delivering faster CCS progress 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES CCS does not advance without targeted support Capital and operational incentives Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO 2 purchase contracts etc. etc.
Delivering faster CCS progress 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT 2. INFRASTRUCTURE INCENTIVES APPROACH CCS does not advance Prioritised without development targeted of support prospective storage Capital and operational areas and incentives sites Grants, tax incentives, Publicly-led feed-in storage-driven tariffs, CO 2 business model purchase contracts Decoupling etc. etc. of CCS chain through hubs
Delivering faster CCS progress 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT 3. SUPPORT INCENTIVES INNOVATION CHAIN CCS does not advance Moving without beyond targeted first support generation Capital and operational Co-ordinated incentives Technology RD&D Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO 2 purchase contracts etc. etc. Mission Innovation, TCPs, PPPs 2. INFRASTRUCTURE APPROACH Prioritised development of prospective storage areas and sites Publicly-led storage-driven business model Decoupling of CCS chain through hubs
20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/
Coming up in June: Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 New edition of ETP: looking at energy transformation and a below 2 degree world 2060 modelling horizon Three key scenarios Reference Technology Scenario (RTS) 2-degree scenario (2DS) NEW: Beyond 2 degrees scenario (B2DS) Role of CCS remains critical in both industry and power, including for negative emissions CCS: focus on infrastructure
Other / forthcoming (non-exhaustive) 15 May: publication of Tracking Clean Energy Progress report (Bonn) 16-17 May: workshop on CO 2 transport and storage (Paris) 6 June: launch of ETP-2017 (Beijing) BECCS: experts workshop in Oct/Nov 2017 (Paris) Regulatory issues: revisiting the IEA Model Regulatory Framework
Further publications in 2017 WEI 2017: launch 10 July Global energy investment trends A short section on CCS investment in the past years (2013-2017) Sources of capital and revenue WEO 2017: launch 14 November Focus country: China Focus fuel: natural gas Deep-dive topic : energy & development
THANK YOU! Tristan.stanley@iea.org