The Future of Embedded Systems Frans Beenker Embedded Systems Innovation by TNO TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 1
Content 1. Embedded systems 2. High-tech industry market characteristics 3. Product and product development characteristics 4. From box to solution 5. Information-centric system of systems 6. High-tech industry needs 7. Dutch and European agendas 8. Conclusions TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 2
What are embedded systems? Embedded Systems The combination of hardware & software components that are embedded into a high-tech system to make it interact intelligently with its (physical) environment. Professional systems Safety & Security Healthcare X-ray & MR Philips Healthcare Lithography ASML Printers Océ Electron Microscopes FEI Company Situational awareness Thales Naval Infrastructure systems High-volume electronics Warehousing Vanderlande Industries Traffic management Rijkswaterstaat Lighting management Philips Lighting Automotive NXP Entertainment Philips / NXP TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 3
Embedded systems are everywhere Embedded systems are used for informing, controlling, safeguarding, connecting, entertaining, Deeply penetrating all parts of society, forming the nervous system of almost all processes & products Typical characteristics Physical systems Interacts with user Interacts with environment Directs Diagnoses We have implicit trust TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 Reliable Robust Safe Productive Quality User friendly 4
High-tech industry characteristics Globalization has introduced a change in customer mix and entries into emerging economies. Global Diversification has become yet another challenge Competitionis on cost (low price, low margin), disruptive technology, new applications The success of high-tech companies today increasingly depends on providing services, content, and interoperability around their products (open systems, solution selling) A significant part of the Dutch (but also European) high-tech industry has (re)positioned itself in the higher value segment Competitive advantages gained from innovations are increasingly short-lived Total life-cycle business, i.e. the sales of new products combined with services to installed products, is an ever more important revenue model Companies are increasingly dependent on partnering within the industry ecosystemto develop and introduce new products and solutions When commercialization of research results requires significant capital investments, an manageable IPR portfolio is critical for business success TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 5
Product development characteristics Costs and risks associated with developing new products continue to increase Embedded systems are getting more and more complex Reliance on global technology providers and outsourcing of the manufacturing of critical components (sub-systems) to new/emerging economies Effective collaboration among globally dispersed employees, and with external organizations has become a necessity Lack of knowledge and professional skills to address overall system design and integration(including the technologycoordination of a highly globalized supply chain) Architecting, consistency & dependency checking, validating Customer requirements System design System integration System release Life-cycle services & maintenace TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 6
Positioning of industry in the value chain Idea Development Life cycle management Order acquisition Order realization Installed base management Open innovation and world-wide collaboration Make-or-buy decisions Integration & test More and more activities are transferred to low cost countries and emerging economies Trend: shift of focus towards initial product development, integration and service/services Value chain Installation Operations & service disposal Companies are in a chain of upstream suppliers and downstream buyers Position ranges from technology/box supplier to solution provider/integrator Position of industry in the total chain determines the competitive advantage Trend: move towards solution provider (role of integrator or to-be-integrated) TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 7
Up in the value chain: example healthcare e.g., patient/treatment specific configuration Business verticals integration e.g., X-ray scanner integrated in specific hospital work-flow e.g. patient/treatment specific configuration Adaptable/ configurable Integrated towards solutions e.g., standard X-Ray scanner Standard component High-volume Product-lines Individualized One-of-a-kind Market forces, technology, societal needs They all drive towards integration of existing systems to create new solutions (selling boxes versus selling solutions) These needs drive key changes to the business models of our high-tech industry TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 8
Up in the value chain -example lighting Lighting systems integrated with safety, energy and possibly other solutions Light management systems for buildings System for monitoring, controlling, metering and diagnosing outdoor lighting Led-luminairs Adaptable/ configurable standard Integrated towards solutions Business verticals integration High-volume Product-lines Individualized One-of-a-kind TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 9
Aggregation of embedded systems System as a box System-in-context Interactive, aware of situation and context, adaptive System-of-Systems collection of systems that pool their resources and capabilities together to create a more able system of systems Information-centric SoS (cyber-physical systems) Combination and coordination of physical + computational elements with strong networking Example Car Automatic parking c2c communication Automated driving TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 10
Business models up in the value chain Revenue on efficient platform + revenue on added value Box selling with focus on TCO + revenue on cold integration Customerspecific configuration + revenue on warm integration + revenue on customer-specific projects Selling solutions (informationcentric system of systems) Selling boxes Range from product to project Box sales driven by customer intimacy TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 11
Industry trends and technology challenges Shifting market paradigm Competition in Total Cost of Ownership Selling boxes Selling boxes with focus on TCO Customer-specific configurations Competition in Data owners, New applications Selling solutions (information-centric system-of-systems) Guaranteed functionality and performance System-level challenges Dependability and key system qualities Configurable and future-proof Context awareness Data privacy & integrity Key enablers Embedded systems technology Communication infrastructures Data and data merging & interpretation TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 12
Towards information centric systems-of-systems. High-tech industry, telecom industry and data providers create the necessary technology and product ingredients for information-centric systemof-systems: new industrial product & services offerings societal solutions Safety and security Energy/CO2 consumption Mobility Elderly care assisted living Information-centric System-of-Systems High-tech systems Vital ICT infrastructures Information services TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 13
High-tech industry needs (1) Usable usability attractiveness responsiveness image quality wear ability storability transportability Dependable safety security reliability robustness integrity availability Context-oriented connectivity interoperability (big) data management 3 rd party extendible Semantic alignment Liable liability testability traceability standards compliance Efficient resource utilization cost of ownership Serviceable serviceability configurability install ability Future-proof evolvability portability upgradeability extendibility maintainability Logistics friendly manufacturability logistics flexibility lead time Ecological ecological footprint contamination noise Disposability Power consumption Consumption rate (water air, chemicals) Other attributes cost price size, weight accuracy Effective throughput or productivity accuracy Consistent reproducibility predictability ASML: Our goal is to strengthen our technological leadership in lithography systems, to anticipate market needs for machines that continuously improve value of ownership, especially concerning performance(resolution, speed, precision) and productivity. Océ: Ourreputation is founded on productivity and reliability, ease of use and a favourable total cost of ownership. We aim, in a very competitive market, to continuously improve our product portfolio and at the same time decrease time to value by improving the effectiveness and efficiency of our development processes. TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 14
High Tech industry needs (2) EMBEDDED SYSTEMS ENGINEERING An overarching discipline that integrates embedded systems technology with system engineering to achieve the best overall high-tech product, application or service The skills for design and integration of heterogeneous (sub)systems, and services into well-performing systems requires a multidisciplinary approach Embedded system design not as a craft but based on sound scientific concepts, and rooted in system engineering Systems Engineering Embedded Systems Engineering Embedded technology areas/disciplines Where well-performing means, among others: Satisfactory system performance and reliability System to perform now and in-future context Aberdeen Group report: - Overcome the lack of cross-functional knowledge - Identify system level problems early in the design process - Ensure that the final system meets all requirements - Accelerate the design process using model-based techniques TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 15
High Tech industry needs (3) Model-based design To validate (early) system-level designs: Models allow analysis, verification and synthesis Detection of conflicts in specifications, undesired behavior, performance bottlenecks, etc. Guidance of integration and testing To ensure that the system satisfies all requirements: Obtain early feedback from potential users Cross check requirements consistency Models replace documentation and become the specification Communication and accessibility of information: System concepts are described in a condensed and unambiguous form Models form a common language and understanding Models allow to share design choices and impact across development groups and disciplines TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 16
High-tech industry needs (4) Professionally skilled people are a key competitive discriminator Life-long attention must be paid to the growth of R&D staff regarding their industrial competences and professional skills There is a growing need for highly qualified embedded-systems engineers, especially those who can deal with the multi-disciplinary aspects of product development Long-term investment in education is needed. With the quickly changing technology base, only life-long learning programs will be able to address this. In high-tech industry, the battle for profit has become the battle for talent, especially in the area of architecting & design TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 17
Dutch and European agendas NWO-EW ICT HTSM Embedded Systems Roadmap STW Embedded systems Academic Research Agenda s Academic groups Institutes Strategic Research Agenda Horizon 2020 Strategic Research Agenda Artemis Strategic Research Agenda Itea Roadmap for software intensive systems and services Other HTSM roadmaps TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 18
Conclusions Embedded systems represent a tremendous growth market With a major multi-disciplinary technological complexity And a strong growth in software content Requiring scarce technology specialists Industry is in a constant need to cater with technology changes For highly complex products and systems For a wide range of business opportunities Embedded systems represent a true technical, product and business challenge in a rapidly globalized world TNO-ESI, October 2013 FHI D&E Event 2013 19