THE ASSESSMENT OF RAPID LANDUSE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON SUSTAINABLE FISHERIES

THE ASSESSMENT OF RAPID LANDUSE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON SUSTAINABLE FISHERIES By: Dewayany Sutrisno National Coordination Agency For Survey And Mapping - Indonesia e-mail: dewayani@bakosurtanal.go.id Abstract Human driver in using the environment space and resources, has become a pressured to the cumulative process of changing within the environment. This may result in changes to the earth system. in which in turn will impact on the future human use of environmental space and resources. This problem seems more existed in the developing country such as Indonesia. Delta Mahakam in East Kalimantan province, is a good example for this case. This, because the area has been rapidly degraded related to the global shrimp industry, and so does the climate. The global market demand of the shrimps industry and the need of local government to increase regional revenue have to be responsible for the rapid land clearing processes of mangrove ecosystem within the delta. Meanwhile, the climate support traditional shifting cultivation and illegal timber industry, may cause the forest fire in the upstream area. Both cases, are responsible for the depletion of the coastal environment productivity, such as natural fisheries. Therefore, an assessment of the environment change has to be employed. Remote sensing technology has been used for the study. The pressure-state-impact-respond (PSIR) framework which relates the ecological and socio-economic study in a cause effect relationship approach, is also employed. Environmental valuation and direct method analysis are also carried out for socio-economic study. The assessment and its recommendation may give support to the regional government policy to achieve the sustainable delta. Introduction Human activities in using the environment space and resources, has become the major key to the cumulative process of environmental changes. These pressures being particularly intense in coastal area due to its access to the all human activities, in the land or in the sea. Indeed, these pressures may result in changes to the earth system, which in turn will impact on the future of human welfare. The environmental problems seem more exist in the developing country such as Indonesia. Population pressure, the lack of public awareness, poverty, weak law enforcement and growth-oriented policy may cause these problems. Take Delta Mahakam in East Kalimantan province -Indonesia, as an example. This prosperous bird foot delta has been rapidly degraded related to the global shrimp market demand. Rapid land clearing processes of mangrove ecosystem has been occurred since 1997 (when the country face economic crisis) for the shake of shrimp ponds demand. Indeed, the local government need for increasing the regional revenue may give space to this booming case. The degradation of water quality related to the erosion and sedimentation process, and so does the extinction of some mangrove species (especially Nypa) and other endemic species of the ecosystem are the result of this problem. Besides that, forest fire sometimes occurred within the upstream forest area, especially in the dry season. This problem also supports the degradation of the water quality due to the sedimentation process as a result of the upland erosion. Although it s remained unclear, shifting cultivation, illegal lodging industry, lithology of the area (that may easily facilitated fire point), supported by severely dry season (especially cause by El Nino) may cause this environmental destruction. Prepared For presentation at The Open Meeting of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada, 16 18 October 2003. 1

It seems the environmental degradation cause by both human and climate, will cumulatively depleted the value of the system, especially the water quality, that directly will affect the fisheries condition. Therefore, this study aim to assess the impact of human driver to the ecological change of the delta, and analyze the possible policy options in order to achieve the sustainable resources. Method and Tools. The assessment was develop based on the pressure state impact response (PSIR) framework (see Figure 1). Remote sensing technique was used for analyzing the multi-temporal and multi image remote sensing data in order to detect the trend of environmental changing. In this case, supervised classification, brovey transformation, NDVI and band ratioing methods are employed for analyzing the land cover change, data fusion, and sedimentation. Landsat MSS data acquired on 15 April 1983, Landsat TM data acquired on June 1997, Landsat7 ETM+ data acquired on 6 February 2001 and Radarsat acquired on June 1997 are being used for these purposes. Meanwhile, the assessment of ground truth data, social economic and the resources valuation based on Total Economic Valuation method (TEV) and direct valuation are also employed for valuing the environment. The Total economic calculation (TEV) method was calculated based on formula; TEV = DUV+IUV+QO+OV+BV+EV Where, TEV: Total economic values DUV: Direct economic values IUV: Indirect economic values QO: Quasie options values OP: Option values BV: Bequest values EV: Existence values The externalities value was directly calculated based on some parameters such as; -disturbance regulation -waste treatment -food production -raw materials -habitat refugee Finally, options of policy are also being analyzed for the achievement of sustainable environment. 2

Socio_economic activities P R Land use change -mangrove conversion Policy & management options Mitigation, gain and losses R P Material fluxes (S) water quality degradation P Impact Economic value R I Coastal ecosystem (S) -ecosystem degradation -fisheries stock Fisheries P P = pressure, S = state, I = Impact, R = response Figure 1. Framework of the assessment ( adopted from Turner, Kerry, Adger and Lorenzoni, 1999) Result and Discussion. 1. Land use change assessment. Remote sensing analysis shows the rapid conversion of mangrove ecosystem to shrimp ponds culture (see Figure 2 and Figure 3). This condition is obviously cause by human, indicated by the trend of increasing numbers of shrimp ponds farmers (see Figure 4). Even though, the number was slightly decreasing in 2001, the land clearings processes remain continue cause of the larger ownership of some rich farmers.. Dutrieux (2001) illustrated the changing as follow; 1986 : human presence is mainly due to fishermen villages and coconut cultures 1992: The first ponds develop replaced some coconut cultures or were built within the Avicennia stands. 1996: Most Avicennia location were destroyed (the more productive down stream places) 1998: Large Avicennia stands were destroyed. Less productive Nypa area are targeted. 1999: 70 % of Nypa and the dense stands of Avicennia were destroyed 3

Deforested mangrove area Date: 15 April 1983 Date: June 1997 Date: 6 February 2001 Figure 2. Deforested mangrove (Re- analyze from Prihartini, 2003) Decreasing Of Mangrove Ecosystem 120,000 100,000 80,000 ha 60,000 40,000 20,000-1980 1986 1992 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Figure 3. Mangrove degradation (calculate from RS data) 4

5000 Figure 4. Number Of Fishermen ( data source: Marine and Fisheries District Service Kutei Kartanegara regency). number of household 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 fishermen temporary fishermen shrimp pond farmer non-shrimp pond farmer Linear (shrimp pond farmer) 1997 1999 2001 years In the 80 s, local people used to live as fishermen, catching shrimp, crab and other fish within the vicinity of the delta. However, their traditional fishing gears and boats are not able to support them with the good income. In the other side, the difficulties of life of another ethnic group force them to come to the uncultivated delta and bought the right of cultivation from the local people. The promising benefit from global shrimp market, increase the numbers of migration and become farmers that contribute land clearing processes, resulting in the destruction of the mangrove ecosystem. This area used to be the habitat for Nypa (58.000 ha), Avicennia and Rhizophora (mouth of the river), Heriteria and other large variety of mangrove (Dutrieux, 2001). Meanwhile, the history of forest fire in the upstream area that usually occurred in the dry season has to be taken into account since the impact may occur within the coastal area (the delta). Shifting cultivation and the illegal timber industry supported by the lithology (compose of immature coal or peat) and climate (may related to the global warm, such as El Nino), may cause some cases of the forest fire. In this case, human also become the major key to the environmental destruction and pay no respect to the properties of nature. Wind Direction and Fires Movement Figure 5. Illustration of upstream forest fire and the fire movement 5

The forest fire that usually occur almost every dry season contribute material flux (sediment) to the coastal water through the upstream erosion, and make the upland area become more vulnerable to any incoming natural hazard, such as flood or landslide. 2. Ecological change assessment The land clearing processes has many ecological consequences to the coastal area. Those include physical disturbance, such as erosion that directly will affect the coastal water quality. The problem can be seen in Figure 6, which show the increase of suspended matter due to the disappearance of the vegetation cover, upstream and downstream. It clearly shows that, the delta is submitted to very large erosion processes conducting to the river fringe destruction, increasing material flux, and mortality of the remaining trees. Figure 6. Illustration of water Quality degradation suspended sediment (mg/l) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 turbidity(ntu) TSS-2003 TSS-2002 turbidity-2002 turbidity-2003 sta1 sta2 sta3 sta4 sta5 station Sediment concentration has direct impact to the availability of primary productivity (first cycle in the food web system) such as chlorophyll. Beside that, since the primary productivity within the mangrove ecosystem is dedritus (source of food from the mangrove biomass), the decreasing number of mangrove obviously will decrease the source of nutrient for many species of fauna within the delta. It can be seen from Figure 7, that there are the decreasing number of river water fisheries and shrimps ponds culture product. Meanwhile, the fisheries products from the sea (including natural shrimps) are increased. Although It s still need further study, the degradation of water quality and nutrients seem responsible for forcing the diverting fisheries production to the sea. It is obvious that the land clearing processes become a pressure for the natural fisheries stock within the vicinity of the delta, even though it is not the only ones. The extensive use of organic matter for shrimp ponds culture in accordance with the land clearing processes is another factor that should be taken into account. Increasing organic matter will generate eutrophication, whether in the ponds or in the delta water, and may end in the shrimp pond production failure or pollution within the delta water. Unfortunately, the organic matter data were not available for this study. So, the contribution of organic matter to the water quality degradation cannot be analyzed. 6

Figure 7. Illustration of the fisheries product of Mahakam Delta data (source: Marine and Fisheries District Service Kutei Kartanegara regency) 100% Products 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1996 1997 1999 2001 year shrimp pond products non-shrimp (sea) fisheries products shrimp catcher products fresh water (river) fisheries products 3. Ecological valuation All of above cases generate impact to the value of the fisheries and ecosystem. Figure 8. Regional Income from fisheries and its externalities value. Yield ($ US) 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 1996 1997 1999 2001 year shrimp pond shrimp catcher non shrimp (sea) fisheries environmental value fresh water (river) fisheries 7

It can be seen form Figure 8 that there were increasing production value of shrimps fisheries (culture and nature) and sea fisheries with slightly decrease in 1999. However the fisheries from the river area tend to be decline. This may become an indication of the ecological disturbance that has been occurred within the delta water. Even though, the benefits from fisheries seem promising, but the calculation of externalities show the depletion environmental value indicated by its higher cost. This value also becomes an indication of water quality degradation. The mangrove economic valuation supports this condition, showing the depletion of this natural resources (see Figure 9). The depletion of Mangrove ecosystem USD (000) 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 Rp (000000) 6,000,000 15,000,000 4,000,000 10,000,000 2,000,000 5,000,000 - - 1992 1996 1997 1999 2001year Value in USD Value in Rupiah Figure 9. The depletion of Mangrove ecosystem Therefore, if the mismanagement of the delta still occur, the destruction of the ecosystem and its fisheries stock will remain continue, resulting in the loss of opportunity for the local fishermen to make advantage of the resources. This condition may affect the fishermen welfare due to the efforts to find another source of living, such as fishing to the sea. 4. Policy options The problem exist in Mahakam Delta, is a good example of human overexploitation to the nature. Without any policy to stop the destruction, this prosperous delta will be disappearing and so does the upland forest area. It means, not only the country but also the world will loss the precious tropical biodiversity including its endanger species. Therefore, policy options have to be employed to stop the destruction. These options should be focused on human, with respect to the local tradition. In this case, the development of Local Council for Sustainable Development (LCSD) has to be taken into account (Kusumastanto, 2001). The council is a representative of different interests and social group (community, business and government), which coordinate and bring together the idea of the local people about their wishes for sustainable development (Kusumastanto, 2001). The idea should include; - strengthening law enforcement capacity in respect to the traditional law, property rights, territorial user right and entitlement. - increase public awareness and knowledge of the local people - detail spatial planning program - mangrove rehabilitation program, concerning silvofisheries method integrated with upstream reforestation 8

- pollution control around the villages and coastal based industries - coordination and cooperation among stakeholders from planning to implementation stage Beside that, since the authority of the delta is still in the central government (The Department of Forestry), the decentralization of management authority and responsibility, has to be taken into account. Finally, the implementation of selected policy should also be a science-based planning management by considering any input from scientists and professionals in respect to the LCSD options. Conclusion and Recommendation The problems occur in Delta Mahakam are good examples of human pressure to the environment. They show the impact of land clearing (generate by human) to the sustainability of the environment and the fisheries stock. They also show that social economic factors are behind all of the problems. Therefore, management options based on participatory approach have to be employed to stop the destruction. The idea of developing LCSD is one of the solutions. However, to visualize the impact of land clearing to the future human welfare cannot be fulfilled by only showing the statistical numbers to the delta stakeholder. A simulation has to be develop for this purpose. Unfortunately, this paper only assesses the impact of land clearing to the fisheries factors. The impact to the human welfare and its related model cannot be employed due to the lack of data. It means, further study have to be carried out to solve the problems within the vicinity of Mahakam Delta. Whereas, the study is not only include the social economic and ecological factors, but also the relation of global climate change to the upstream forest fire. References: Dutrieux, E. 2001. The Mahakam Delta environment From the 80 s up to now: A Synthesis of a 15 year investigation. Proceeding of The International Workshop: Optimizing development and environmental Issues at Coastal Area, Problem and solution for sustainable at Mahakam Delta. April 2000. pp 63-68 Fisheries and Marine District Service Kutei Kartanegara regency. 1999 2001. The Statistic of Fisheries. Kutei Kartanegara, East Kalimantan Kusumastanto, T. 2001. Management Model in The Implementation of Sustainable Coastal Development. Proceeding of The International Workshop: Optimizing development and environmental Issues at Coastal Area, Problem and solution for sustainable at Mahakam Delta. April 2000. pp 31-36 Prihartini, T. R. 2003.: Spatial Optimation, Dynamic and Simulation Model For Coastal Resources management in Mahakam Delta. Dissertation. Bogor Agricultural University. Turner, R.K., W. Neil Adger and Irene Lorenzoni. 1998. Toward Integrated Modelling And Analysis in Coastal Zone:Principles and Practises. LOICZ Report and Studies No. 11, 1998. Netherlands. 9