CHAPTER 4 The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has experienced rapid development in economic and social sectors since 1973. Mainly the development of the country was the result of the oil embargo of 1973 during Arab Israel war that resulted in a thirteen-fold increase in Crude oil revenues. The total oil revenue rose up to SAR 94.19 billion in 1974, corresponding to SAR 7.12 billion in 1973 1 (Ouda, 2014) (Elhadj, 2004). It was a hefty increase in government revenues, which led to the development activities in all economic sectors. Aspirations of self-sufficiency and reliance, achieving better livelihood, prosperity goals of rural society, counter with political instability in West Asia were major challenges that motivated Saudi government to initiate major infrastructural development in the country. Consequently, country s development plan and various schemes had launched by the Saudi government to boost up self-sufficiency and reliance on various resources including water and agriculture. Substantial improvement has also been noticed into the standard of living, especially in urban areas. Moreover, the demand for water increases many folds in all sectors, viz., domestic, agriculture and industrial. The present chapter addresses the past, current and future projections of water consumption along with water balance in terms of demand and supply in various sectors by sources. Nevertheless, the survey on water resources has great uncertainties, specifically discussed in the previous chapter, because of the precise 1 Elhadj, E. (2004). Camels Don t Fly, Deserts Don t Bloom: an Assessment of Saudi Arabia s Experiment in Desert Agriculture. Occasional Paper No. 48, Water Issues Study Group, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)/King s College London, 1-38. Retrieved from https://www.soas.ac.uk/water/publications/papers/file38391.pdf Ouda, O. K. (2014). Water demand versus supply in Saudi Arabia: Current and future challanges. International Journal of Water Resource Development, 30(2), 335-344.
and nonconventional methodology of the estimates 2. The past survey on water resources in Saudi Arabia had been conducted more than 30 years ago in the lack of appropriate institutional and technological provisions 3. Though a new and comprehensive survey has been projected to execution under the objectives of Eight Development Plan (2005-2009), still published reports are not in the public domain. The Ninth Development Plan (2010-2014) also has some lacks of precise estimates of water resources. The Saudi Statistical Year Book (SSYB) has also published the annual database on water resources along with economic and social development, trade and commerce and others 4. Likewise, the Ministry of Water and Electricity (MOWE), is the sole authority to execute and implement water resource projects, exercises the collection of statistics on water resources 5. There is a serious lack of insight into the collection of statistical estimates on water resources due to engagement of several such agencies. The present discussions on water demand and supply may suffer from the variations of estimates. However, a proper and conscious effort has been adopted to reduce these uncertainties in the present study. 4.1 Water Demand in Saudi Arabia The consumption of water resources involves sectoral demand from domestic, industry and agriculture in Saudi Arabia. It is coupled with the high standard of living and rapid development in all sectors. The biggest demand for water amounted by the agriculture sector that is followed by domestic and industrial sector respectively. Due to the unfavourable climatic condition to farming, the practices of cultivation entirely depend on irrigation in Saudi Arabia. The total area under cultivation in 1971 was 419 thousand hectares that increased up to 609 thousand 2 MOP. (2005). Eight Development Plan 2005-2009. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 3 MOP. (2000). Seventh Development Plan 2000-2004. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 4 SSYB. (2014). Saudi Statistical Year Book. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Central Department of Statistics and Information 5 MOWE. (2009). Annual Report 2009. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of Water and Electricity. 158 P a g e
hectares in 1980 and reach at maximum to 1,597 thousand hectares in 1994 6. After that, the kingdom realized the value of water and took the first step towards water conservation in the agriculture sector, which was followed by reducing in subsidy to wheat cultivation 7. The cultivated area under wheat witnessed ups and downs from 924 thousand hectares in 1992 to 419 thousand hectares in 2000 and 196 thousand hectares in 2009 8. Moreover, the total cultivated area also decreased from 1,597 thousand hectares in 1994 to 1,120 and 835 thousand hectares in 2000 and 2009 respectively 9. The share of the area under wheat cultivation to the total cultivated area has increased from 10 percent in 1971 to 82 percent in 1992 but decreased down to the level of 60 percent in 2009 10. The demand for water in agriculture rose from 6,108 MCM in 1970 to 19,271 MCM in 2010 (Figure 4.1). It rapidly increased by tripled fold from 1970 to 1990. After the change in government policy of subsidy, the demand became almost constant for the period of 1990-2010. The share of water demand for agriculture was 95 percent of total demand for water in 1980, which decreased approximately by a decadal rate of 3 percent and reach to 87 percent in 2010 (Figure 4.1). The decline in water demand for agriculture is the combined effect of policy change along with the increase of the share of water demand from other sectors, i.e. domestic and industry. Domestic sector is the second highest water required sector. The population of Saudi Arabia was 5.8 million in 1970 11, which rose at the annual growth rate of 3.8 percent and reached to 15.2 million in 1990 12. After that, the annual growth of population 6 SAMA. (2014). Saudi Arabian Monatry Agency (49 th annual Report). Riyadh: Department of Statistics. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 7 MOP. (1995). Sixth Development Plan 1995-99. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 8 SAMA. (2014). Saudi Arabian Monatry Agency (49 th annual Report). Riyadh: Department of Statistics. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 9 SAMA. (2011). Saudi Arabian Monatry Agency (46 th annual Report). Riyadh: Department of Statistics. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 10 SAMA. (2010). Saudi Arabian Monatry Agency (45 th annual Report). Riyadh: Department of Statistics. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 11 SSYB. (1996). Saudi Statistical Year Book. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Central Department of Statistics and Information. 12 SSYB. (2014). Saudi Statistical Year Book. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Central Department of Statistics and Information. 159 P a g e
Million Cubic Meter Chapter 4 decreases to 2.5 percent for the period of 1990-2010 13. In 2010, the population of Saudi Arabia was 27 million, of which 19.8 percent were the Nationals while 7.4 percent were the expatriate 14. The demand of water in domestic sector was 200 MCM in 1970 and reached to 2,063 MCM in 2010 (Figure 4.1). The water demand increased sharply after 1980 from 446 MCM to 1,508 MCM in 1990. Therefore, triple fold increase in a period of 10 years (1980-1990) was marked by the demand of water in the domestic sector. In 2000, the demand reached to 1,800 MCM with an additional increase of 300 MCM from the preceding period ( 1990), further an increase of 263 MCM ( total 2,063 MCM demand ) was also registered in 2010 (Figure 4.1). Figure 4.1: Water Demand by Sector in Saudi Arabia (MCM) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Agriculture 6108 9470 18776 19721 19271 Domestic 200 446 1508 1800 2063 Industrial 20 56 190 450 800 Source: Abderrahman, 2006; MOWE, 2012 13 SSYB. (2014). Saudi Statistical Year Book. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Central Department of Statistics and Information. 14 SSYB. (2014). Saudi Statistical Year Book. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Central Department of Statistics and Information. 160 P a g e
Figure 4.2: Share of Water Demand by Sector in Saudi Arabia (MCM) 1980 1990 95% 92% 4% 7% 1% 1% 2000 2010 90% 87% 8% 9% 2% 4% Source 15 : Abderrahman, 2006; MOWE, 2012 During 1970-80, the decadal change of population was 60.60 percent while the demand for water in the same period increases by 123 percent, which coupled with 15 Abderrahman, Walid A. (2006). Groundwater Resources management in Saudi Arabia, Special presentation at Water Conservation Workshop, Khober, Saudi Arabia. Ministry of Water and Electricity. (2012). Supporting documents for King Hassan II great water prize. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Retrieved from http://www.worldwatercouncil.org /fileadmin/world_water_council/documents_old/prizes/hassan_ii/candidates_2011/16.mi nistry_sa.pdf 161 P a g e
the high standard of living. The trend of water demand reached at highest level along with the population growth in the next decade (1980-1990). In the observed period, the decadal change of population growth was 63 percent whereas the increase in water demand was 238 percent. It was ever highest change in domestic water demand due to the maximum rate of immigration in Saudi Arabia 16. The decadal change (1990-2000) of population witnessed a decrease and registered a growth of only 35 percent. Therefore, demand for domestic water was also the envisaged decline of 19 percent as compared to 238 percent in a previous decade. In the decade of 2000-10, the change of domestic water demand and the population was recorded 14.6 and 32.5 per cent respectively. Moreover, the share of domestic water to the total water demand was 3, 4, 7, 8 and 9 per cent in the year of 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively (Figure 4.2). The rapid development of industrial sector realized after the Oil Boom of 1973, before that the national economy depends on revenue from non-oil sectors. The development of modern industrial sector accelerated after the establishment of the Saudi Industrial Development Fund (SIDF) by the government of Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the number of operating industrial unit has increased from 198 in 1974 to 6,471 in 2013 17. Moreover, the capital investment also increases from SR 12 billion in 1974 to SR 883 billion in 2013 18 (Saudi Industrial Development Fund (SIDF), 2015). The demand of water in the industrial sector had increased from 20 MCM in 1970 to 800 MCM in 2010. It was 56, 190 and 450 in 1980, 1990 and 2000 respectively (Figure 4.1). The contribution of industrial demand to total water demand was 1 percent in year1970 and reached up to 4 per cent in 2010 (Figure 4.2). 16 Saudi Gazette. (2013, November 05). Over 2.8m Indians now in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Gazette (Eng. Daily). Retrieved April 12, 2014, from http://www.saudigazette.com. sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20131106185891 17 Saudi Industrial Development Fund (SIDF). (2015, Jan 26). Industrial Development in Saudi Arabia. Retrieved from Saudi Industrial Development Fund: www.sidf.gov.sa /En/INDUSTRYINSAUDIARABIA/Pages/IndustrialDevelopemtinSaudiArabia.aspx 18 SSYB. (2014). Saudi Statistical Year Book. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Central Department of Statistics and Information. 162 P a g e
4.2 Water Supply in Saudi Arabia There are four primary sources of water supply in Saudi Arabia, i.e. groundwater from deep aquifers, surface water with renewable water, desalinated water and treated wastewater. The contribution of Groundwater is highest in the total water supply. Groundwater comes from deep aquifers that spread over the whole of the territory of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Eight principle aquifers have almost 86 per cent of non-renewable water, and remaining water stored in secondary aquifers 19. Most of them spread in the Northeast and central part of Arabia. According to Abdurrahman 2006 and MOWE 2012 20, the supply of water from nonrenewable groundwater (GW-NR) was 3662 MCM in 1980 that increased by tripled fold to 10421 MCM in 2010. The supply of water increase rapidly after 1980 and quadrupled in 1990 (13824 MCM), and after that the supply is almost constant till 1990 (Figure 4.3). Due to the reduction of water use in the agriculture sector, the supply start to decline after 2000 and reached from 14071 MCM in 2000 to 10421 MCM in 2010. The average share of total water supply from GW-NR was 37, 67, 66 and 58 percent in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively (Figure 4.4). There is the absolute absence of river and natural lake systems in Saudi Arabia. The precipitation is the primary source of surface water. Some part of precipitation directly collected into dams and reservoirs while remaining flows as runoff. The practice of water storage through dams and reservoir concentrated along the both side of Asir and Hijaz mountains in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Moreover, most of the recharge dams built into central and eastern part of the country. According to MOWE, 2009, 2011; Aquastat, 2011; and Chowdhury et al., 2013 21, 19 Mohorjy, A. M., & Grigg, N. S. (1995). Water-Resources Management System for Saudi Arabia. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 121(2), 205-215. 20 Abderrahman, Walid A. (2006). Groundwater Resources management in Saudi Arabia, Special presentation at Water Conservation Workshop, Khober, Saudi Arabia. Ministry of Water and Electricity. (2012). Supporting documents for King Hassan II great water prize. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Retrieved from http://www.worldwatercouncil.org /fileadmin/world_water_council/documents_old/prizes/hassan_ii/candidates_2011/16.mi nistry_sa.pdf 21 MOWE. (2009). Annual Report 2009. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of Water and Electricity. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 163 P a g e
Million Cubic Meter Chapter 4 there were 302 dams in 2009 for various purpose, that includes 210 storage dams, 65 for flood control, 25 dams for drinking and two dams for irrigation purposes. Surface and renewable water collectively contribute almost 6000 MCM water for supply use. It includes recharge and runoff of widyan flows. Figure 4.3: Supply of Water by Source in Saudi Arabia (MCM) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 GW (NR) 3662 13824 14071 10421 SW+R 6000 6000 6000 6000 Desal. 200 540 1050 1082 TW Water 110 110 240 400 Source: Abderrahman, 2006; MOWE, 2012; Note: GW (NR) = Groundwater Non- Renewable, SW+R = Surface Water and recharge, Desal. = Desalinated water, TW Water= Treated Wastewater. The share of surface and renewable water from the total supply was 60, 29, 28 and 34 percent in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively (Figure 4.4). It is important to MOWE. (2011). Annual Report 2009. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of Water and Electricity. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Chowdhury, S., & Al-Zahrani, M. (2013). Characterizing water resources and trends of sector wise water consumption in Saudi Arabia. Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences, In Press. 164 P a g e
note that the quantity of water supply remain constant from 1980 to 2010 while the average share decreases due to increasing in other water supply sources. Other important sources of water supply are desalinated water and treated wastewater. Desalinisation plays a significant role in domestic water supply in Saudi Arabia. Figure 4.4: Share of Water Supply by Source in Saudi Arabia (MCM) 1980 1990 37% 2% 3% 29% 60% 67% 1% 1% 2000 2010 66% 5% 28% 58% 6% 34% 1% 2% Source: Abderrahman, 2006; MOWE, 2012 There were total 30 plants, twenty-four along the western coast with the collective production capacity of 520 MCM and six in the east with cumulative production capacity 534 MCM in 2010, commissioned for water desalinization in Saudi 165 P a g e
Arabia 22. The supply of desalinated water was 200 MCM in 1980 that reach to 1082 MCM in 2010 (Figure 4.3). The average share of desalinated water was 2, 3, 5 and 6 percent of the total supply in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively (Figure 4.4). However, the process of desalinization is economically costly but the contribution to the supply, as a prime source of domestic consumption, makes the great importance of this source. Moreover, the practice of water treatment starts late as compare to other countries. Chowdhury et al., 2013 23 reported that there were 35 major water treatment plants situated in various locations in Saudi Arabia. The capacity of water treatment from these plants was 1.55 MCM/ day and the actually treated amount reported as 1.45 MCM/ day 24. The kingdom has to realize the importance of treated water very late due to religious constraint and customs. Therefore, the average share of treated water remained 1 percent of total water supply from 1980 to 2000. It becomes almost double in 2010 (Figure 4.3). 4.3 Gap between Total Water Demand and Supply The estimate shows that the demand for water increasing sharply and the sources of water supply are limited. Therefore, the gap between water demand and supply has widened significantly. It is evident from figure 4.1 and 4.3 that the demand was entirely fulfilled in the period of 1980 to 1990. However, the gap between water demand and supply has created in 2000 with the deficit amount of 610 MCM (Figure 4.5). It shows that the available water resources were not sufficient to satisfy water demand in 2000 and onwards. Therefore, it is evident that the sources of water supply are limited in Saudi Arabia. 22 SWCC. (2011). Annual Report 2010: General Organization of Water Desalinization. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Saline Water Conversion Corporation. SAMA. (2015). Saudi Arabian Monatry Agency (50 th annual Report). Riyadh: Department of Statistics. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 23 Chowdhury, S., & Al-Zahrani, M. (2013). Characterizing water resources and trends of sector wise water consumption in Saudi Arabia. Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences, In Press. 24 SAMA. (2015). Saudi Arabian Monatry Agency (50 th annual Report). Riyadh: Department of Statistics. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 166 P a g e
Thousands Million Cubic Meter 0 5 10 15 20 25 Chapter 4 Figure 4.5: The gap between supply and Demand (Supply-Demand Curve) 1980 1990 2000 2010 Total Water Supply Total water Demand Source: Based on Figure 4.1 and 4.3 Consequently, the government adopted a policy of demand management rather than supply management strategy to achieve self-reliance and sustenance of the region. Further, the gap between demand and supply reach at maximum in 2010 that mark the deficiency of almost 4,231 MCM (Figure 4.5). This amount is equal to the total domestic supply of 2000 and 2010. The total demand of water under various uses was 6,328, 9,972, 20,474, 21,971 and 22,134 MCM in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively (Figure 4.1). Simultaneously, the supply including all sources was 9,972, 20,474, 21,361 and 17,903 MCM in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 respectively (Figure 4.3). Therefore, the gap between supply and demand was not in such situation that could not be managed significantly. The government is reducing subsidies in the agriculture sector to manage the gap between water demand and supply, as it is the major water-consuming sector. The total decline in the agriculture sector was 450 MCM from the preceding period (2000-2010) while an increase of 163 MCM has recorded in total water demand during the same period (Figure 4.3). 167 P a g e
4.4 Water Consumption Assessment Based on Five-Year Development Plan Initiation of five years based development plan in Saudi Arabia was the first step towards the comprehensive development of all economic sectors. The first agency for the planning was established on the recommendation of International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1958 25. The responsibility of the planning was assign to the Central Planning Organisation (CSO) in 1965, later remained as Ministry of Planning in 1975 26. It drafted first complete five-year (1970-75) in the late 1960s that become effected on September 2, 1970 27. This plan also proposed measures for water supply and demand including consumption policy. Planning was made up for all required sectors, i.e. municipal, industrial and agriculture. According to 6 th five-year plan (1994-1999), the estimated consumption for municipal, industrial and agriculture sector was 1750, 450 and 18540 MCM per annum respectively (Table 4.1). While, the supply was satisfied by the nonrenewable (56.75 %), renewable (38.29 %) desalinated water (3.81 %) and the treated water (1.16 %) in the same plan (Table 4.1). In the 7 th development plan (1999-2004), the consumption in domestic and industrial water sector increased while it slightly decline in the agriculture sector. The total consumption was 20270 MCM, out of that 2100 MCM consume by municipal, 640 MCM by industrial and remaining 17530 MCM by the agriculture sector (Table 4.1). The supply was met 66.75, 26.95, 5.28 and 1.48 MCM by nonrenewable, renewable, desalinated and treated water respectively (Table 4.1). The consumption pattern almost similar to the previous plan in 8 th development plan (2004-2009). Moreover, the domestic consumption increases by two percentage point from the previous plan outlay and reduces in agriculture by almost three percentage point in 25 Ministry of Water and Electricity. (2012). Supporting documents for King Hassan II great water prize. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Retrieved from http://www.worldwater council.org/fileadmin/world_water_council/documents_old/prizes/hassan_ii/candidates_ 2011/16.Ministry_SA.pdf 26 MOP. (1985). Fourth Development Plan 1985. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 27 MOP. (1970). First Development Plan 1970. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 168 P a g e
the same plan. The non-renewable source of water was the highest contributor (62.4 %) of total water supply followed by renewable (29.94 %), desalinated (5.66 %) and treated water (1.98 %) (See: Table 4.1). Table 4.1: per the Development Plans) Water Balance of Consumption and Supply in Saudi Arabia (as 6th Plan 7th Plan 8th Plan 9th Plan Sector/Year % % % % 1999 Share 2004 Share 2009 Share 2014 Share Municipal 1750 8.44 2100 10.36 2330 12.59 2583 15.84 Industrial 450 2.17 640 3.16 713 3.85 930 5.70 Agricultural 18540 89.39 17530 86.48 15464 83.56 12794 78.46 Total 20740 100.00 20270 100.00 18507 100.00 16307 100.00 Non- Renewable 11769 56.75 13490 66.55 11551 62.41 8976 55.04 Renewable 7941 38.29 5410 26.69 5541 29.94 4644 28.48 Desalinated 790 3.81 1070 5.28 1048 5.66 2070 12.69 Treated 240 1.16 300 1.48 367 1.98 617 3.78 Total 20740 100.00 20270 100.00 18507 100.00 16307 100.00 Source 28 : Five Year Development Plans (6 th, 7 th, 8 th, and 9 th ). Ministry of Planning, KSA. Due to accumulated effect of the efforts and measures taken in last plan, water consumption in the 9 th development plan (2009-2014) has declined significantly. The total water demand is a decline at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent, from 18.5 BCM in 2009 to 16.3 BCM in 2014 (Table 4.1). It is due to the demand 28 MOP. (1985). Fourth Development Plan 1985. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of MOP. (1990). Fifth Development Plan 1990-94. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of MOP. (1995). Sixth Development Plan 1995-99. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of MOP. (2000). Seventh Development Plan 2000-2004. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of MOP. (2005). Eight Development Plan 2005-2009. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of MOP. (2010). Ninth Development Plan 2010-2014. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 169 P a g e
Hundreds MCM Hundreds MCM Chapter 4 rationalization in agricultural purposes at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent, reduced from 15.5 BCM to 12.8 BCM. Figure 4.6: Water Consumption in Saudi Arabia as per Five Year Development Plans 200 150 128 6th Plan 7th Plan 8th Plan 9th Plan 100 50 0 Agricultural Municipal Industrial 26 9 Source: Based on Table 4.1 Figure 4.7: Plans. 150 Water Supply in Saudi Arabia as per Five Year Development 6th Plan 7th Plan 8th Plan 9th Plan 100 90 50 0 46 21 6 Non-renewable Renewable Desalinated Treated Source: Based on Table 4.1 170 P a g e
In contrast, water demand for industrial usage increases at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent, from 713 MCM to 930 MCM (Table 4.1), due to a rise in the number of factories, and operations of the new industrial cities, in addition to economic cities. However, municipal use rises at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, from 2.3 BCM to 2.6 BCM. It is interesting to note that the rate of consumption in municipal purpose closely matched with expected population growth in the next decade. Moreover, the supply from non-renewable decline significantly. On the other hand, the share of water supply from the desalinated and treated water sources increase almost two-fold from last plan. 4.5 Projections of Future Water Demand by Sectors To setting goals and future planning, the projections of various aspects could be one of the most strategic steps for water resource management. It ensures water security, stability and sustainability of the nations. The figures of projection provide a wide range of actions and needed policy recommendations in the integrated management of the resources. The balance between water supply and consumption ascertain to cope up with the future expectations and challenges in more than one way. Table 4.2: Projections of Water Consumption in Saudi Arabia Sector Municipal Industrial 10 th Plan 11 th Plan 12 th Plan Scenarios (2015-19) (2019-24) (2024-29) SC-I 2866 3180 3528 SC-II 2796 3027 3277 SC-III 2937 3339 3796 SC-I 1215 1589 2076 SC-II 1159 1444 1800 SC-III 1274 1746 2392 SC-I 10596 8775 7268 Agriculture SC-II 10324 8330 6722 SC-III 10874 9242 7855 SC-I 14368 12660 11154 Total SC-II 14003 12025 10326 SC-III 14740 13324 12044 Source: Researcher Estimates 171 P a g e
Hundreds MCM Hundreds MCM Chapter 4 Therefore, a systematic statistics based assumption with predicted two scenarios has been adopted in the present study. There were three scenarios, i.e. SC-I, SC-II, and SC-III. Figure 4.8: Predict Scenario for Municipal Water Consumption 39 37 35 SC-I SC-II SC-III 33 31 29 27 25 10th Plan (2015-19) 11th Plan (2019-24) 12th Plan (2024-29) Source: Based on Table 4.2 Figure 4.9: Predict Scenario for Industrial Water Consumption 26 24 22 20 SC-I SC-II SC-III 18 16 14 12 10 10th Plan (2015-19) 11th Plan (2019-24) 12th Plan (2024-29) Source: Based on Table 4.2 172 P a g e
Hundreds MCM Hundreds MCM Chapter 4 Figure 4.10: Predict Scenario for Agriculture Water Consumption 120 110 100 SC-I SC-II SC-III 90 80 70 60 10th Plan (2015-19) 11th Plan (2019-24) 12th Plan (2024-29) Source: Based on Table 4.2 Figure 4.11: Predict Scenario for Total Water Consumption 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 SC-I SC-II SC-III 10th Plan (2015-19) 11th Plan (2019-24) 12th Plan (2024-29) Source: Based on Table 4.2 173 P a g e
Both the SC-II and SC-II my scenarios was developed based on the current pattern of change (SC-I) given in 9 th development plan of the Saudi government. In this regard, the weight has been assigned to all three sectors according to their previous growth pattern. The highest weight (± 1 %) has given to industrial sector that is growing at a faster rate. The agriculture and domestic sectors have assigned an equal weight of ± 0.5 percent because of the decline in cultivated area and stabilization of population growth rate respectively (Table 4.3). Table 4.3: Coefficient Values for Scenario Projections Sectors/ Scenarios Rate of change as per scenario analysis Actual (SC-I) SC-II SC-III Deviation Municipal 2.1 1.6 2.6 0.5 Industrial 5.5 4.5 6.5 1 Agricultural -3.7-4.2-3.2 0.5 Total -2.5-3 -2 0.5 Source: Researcher Estimates Based on these projections (Table 4.2, Figures 4.8, 4.9, 4.10 and 4.11), the general conclusions could be understood as following: 1. It is expected that highest growth of water consumption has to be in the industrial sector in next 15 year. 2. Hence, the industrial sector needs particular attention in terms of water management to meet the expected high demand for water consumption. 3. Whereas municipal sector will follow slow growth as compare to industrial demand for water. 4. The agriculture sector is showing an entirely different trend that will decline sharply and help to maintain a balance between total water supply and demand as holding the largest share of all sector. 5. It is anticipated that the total water demand, including all, will go down and open opportunities to ensure sustainability of the kingdom. 6. The demand-supply curve is positive for the kingdom s water resources. 174 P a g e
Province Municipal Agriculture Industrial Total Municipal Agriculture Industrial Total Municipal Agriculture Industrial Total Chapter 4 4.6 Regional Growth of Water Consumption The overall growth of total water consumption is declining at a rate of 2.5 per cent per annum in Saudi Arabia. The highest decline has been observed in Jauf and Tabouk provinces at an annual rate of 4.3 and 4.1 percent respectively (Table 4.4). Another significant region including Qassim (-3.6), Hail (-3.6), Jazan (-3.0) and Medina (-2.8) have above growth rate from the national level of decline (Table 4.4). Najran, Riyadh, Eastern Region, and Baha are the below of the national growth rate of decline whereas Makkah and Asir have no change in total water consumption. Only Northern border province has experienced growth in total water consumption. Table 4.4: Water Consumption by Region as per 8 th and 9 th Development Plan (2009-2014) 2009 2014 Average Annual Growth Rate Riyadh 673 4089 236 4998 752 3467 280 4499 2.2-3.2 3.5-2.1 Makkah 608 861 144 1613 667 737 193 1597 1.9-3.1 6.0-0.2 Madinah 158 968 52 1178 178 775 69 1022 2.4-4.3 5.8-2.8 Qassim 86 2274 21 2381 96 1866 24 1986 2.2-3.9 2.7-3.6 East Reg 353 911 198 1462 387 734 249 1370 1.9-4.2 4.7-1.3 Asir 124 350 16 490 137 330 24 491 2.0-1.2 8.4 0.0 Tabouk 67 733 8 808 75 565 15 655 2.3-5.1 13.4-4.1 Hail 45 1352 7 1404 50 1099 18 1167 2.1-4.1 20.8-3.6 North Bord 24 4 3 31 27 6 3 36 2.4 8.4 0.0 3.0 Jazan 86 2040 8 2134 97 1712 20 1829 2.4-3.4 20.1-3.0 Najran 37 252 5 294 42 207 12 261 2.6-3.9 19.1-2.4 Baha 30 120 5 155 32 100 11 143 1.3-3.6 17.1-1.6 Jawf 39 1510 10 1559 43 1196 12 1251 2.0-4.6 3.7-4.3 Total 2330 15464 713 18507 2583 12794 930 16307 2.1-3.7 5.5-2.5 Source 29 : 9 th Development Plan, KSA (2014) 29 MOP. (2005). Eight Development Plan 2005-2009. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of MOP. (2010). Ninth Development Plan 2010-2014. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 175 P a g e
Figure 4.12: Water Consumption in Agriculture Sector during VIII and IX Development Plan (2009-2014) Source: Prepared by Researcher based on Table 4.4 MOP. (2015). Tenth Development Plan 2015-2019. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Ministry of 176 P a g e
Figure 4.13: Water Consumption in Domestic Sector during VIII and IX Development Plan (2009-2014) Source: Prepared by Researcher based on Table 4.4 177 P a g e
Figure 4.14: Water Consumption in Industrial Sector during VIII and IX Development Plan (2009-2014) Source: Prepared by Researcher based on Table 4.4 178 P a g e
Figure 4.15: Total Water Consumption during VIII and IX Development Plan (2009-2014) Source: Prepared by Researcher based on Table 4.4 179 P a g e
The scenario of decline has changed when considering sector-wise growth rate. It is increasing fast in the industrial sector, at an annual rate of 5.5 percent, and municipal sector, at an annual rate of 2.1 percent (Table 4.4). In contrast, agriculture water consumption declining at a rate of 3.7 per cent per annum (Table 4.4). The highest growth rate has recorded in Hail (20.8 %) and Jazan (20.1 %) province in terms of industrial water consumption. Total six regions namely Najran, Baha, Tabouk, Asir, Madinah, and Makkah, are above the average annual growth rate of the country in terms of industrial water consumption. While four provinces, namely Eastern Province, Jawf, Riyadh and Qassim are below the average annual growth rate of Saudi Arabia whereas Northern Province has no change (Table 4.4). Moreover, only Najran experiencing high annual growth rate (2.6 %) in municipal water consumption that followed by Northern Border, Jazan and Riyadh (2.4 percent each). The total seven provinces are above the national average growth rate in the municipal sector while remaining six provinces are below this average. The lowest annual growth rate of municipal water consumption has observed in Baha province (1.3 %) (Table 4.4) On the other hand, the annual growth rate of agriculture water consumption is negative for each province except the Northern Border. It has a positive growth rate of an annual increase of 8 percent in water consumption. The highest decline in agriculture water use found in Tabouk (-5.1 %) province followed by Jaws (-4.6) and Madinah (-4.3 %) provinces (Table 4.4). There are a total seven provinces including Tabouk, Jawf, Madinah is above the national average of decline (3.7 %) while only five provinces are below this average. 180 P a g e