The role of externalities in the Cost Benefit Analysis of Rome Milan HS line Stivali Franco, Head of Investment Planning and Evaluation, Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane
Mobility and HSR in Italy Areas density Link Hub Spoke Columbia University NY 2
the new face of italian mobility By two years of operation, the high-speed has changed the travel habits of train users The lower travel times, the lower costs compared with other modes of transport and the better comfort are the main reasons for the increased use of the train There is also evidence of the economic, environmental, and social benefits generated by this infrastructural investment This study is a combine of: ex-post analysis (2010 2011) in order to study the impact of the construction site and effects already produced by the new infrastructure ex-ante analysis that allows us with appropriate corrections to project these effects into the future 3
the study- framework of analysis pattern Two-step evaluation process: CBA The cost-benefit analysis that evaluates the positive and negative effects directly attributable to the construction of this infrastructure SEA The socio-economic analysis that assesses the impact on geographic areas (e.g., real estate values, labour market, etc.). 4
the result of analysis The CBA, highlights a positive result of 2.1 billion, a value greatly increased if we consider the SEA The core of the analysis is the passenger trend, over a period of 50 years, in two distinct scenarios: Base Scenario, related to the case of the non-construction of the HSR Infrastructural Scenario, related to the case of new infrastructure 5
the cost-benefit analysis Every cost and benefit item (except industrial costs) depends largely on the dynamics of the passengers and on their decisions about transport. Between 2009 and 2010 there was an increase in the number of train passengers on all sections of the HSR between Rome and Milan, from 28% to 31%, estimated up to 42% in 2059. The HSR opportunity leads more people to choose travelling by train 6
the cost-benefit analysis 7
the cost-benefit analysis Cost of Transport saving calculated by estimating the different costs per traveller for the three transport modes considered (rail, road, air) 3.1 billion 8
the cost-benefit analysis Travel Time Savings passengers using the HSR instead of the old trains other transport modes (highways and aircraft) 11.8 billion 9
the cost-benefit analysis Motor vehicle accident risk saving benefit related to the reduction in accidents, deaths, and injuries on the motorway due to the shift of passengers from car to train 400 million 10
the cost-benefit analysis Environmental effect CO 2 emissions: comparison between the additional emissions generated by HSR transport and those saved by passengers shift by car and plane Any passenger who moves to the HSR produces on average 70% less CO 2 compared with drivers and 80% less than those travelling by airplane. 11
the cost-benefit analysis Environmental effect Air pollution concerns the emissions of NO X, SO 2, and VOC (volatile organic compounds) average external cost from the emissions generated by different types of transport, expressed in /pass-km different for the different modality the benefit derived from the difference between the generated and avoided emissions (CO 2 and air pollution) by the HSR has a value of about 690 million 12
the social-economic analysis The Social Economic Analysis (SEA) measures the indirect effects generated by increased passenger traffic in geographic areas affected by train services on HSR. The increased number of passenger is due to: a reduced Generalized Cost of Transport (GCT) increased Accessibility total benefits are about 8.7 billion 13
the social-economic analysis The effect of the reduction in GCT and the increase in accessibility due to the realisation of the Milan Rome HSR is an increase in traffic in the areas reached by the HS railway. Increase in tourism; Increase of business flow; Increase of flows related to services (students); Increase of real estate values near HSR stations; Agglomeration; Expansion of the labour market. 14
Conclusion The Milan-Rome HSR is day by day changing the travel habits of people: in just two years over 40 million travellers have chosen to use the high speed rail services High Speed Milan-Rome means: Best performance in terms of safety and speed Modal re-equilibrium with environmental and social benefits Development opportunities for the country's economic system 15