BAAQMD s Greenhouse Gas Measurement Program Abhinav Guha Bay Area Air Quality Management District, San Francisco, California, USA hosted by National Academy of Sciences Committee on Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the US - Davis, California, May 16, 2017
Bay Area Air Quality Management District Mission Attain air quality standards Protect public health Protect the climate Jurisdiction 9 counties / 101 cities 7 million people 2.6 million households 5 million vehicles Authority Stationary sources of air pollution Permit over 10,000 facilities and equipment Criteria pollutants, toxics and greenhouse gases
State of California Assembly Bill, AB 32 1990 levels by year 2020 Executive Order S-3-05 80% below 1990 levels by year 2050 Executive Order B-30-15 State Bill, SB 32 Regional Government 2017 Clean Air Plan Plan Bay Area (housing and transportation planning) City/County Governments 65 local climate action plans Climate Action Planning } 40% below 1990 levels by year 2030
2017 Clean Air Plan Multi-pollutant emissions control strategy Reduce Bay Area s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 Reduce air pollution and related health impacts. 85 Control Measures and over 250 Implementation Actions http://www.baaqmd.gov/plans-and-climate/air-quality-plans/current-plans
GHG Projection to 2050 with key state programs
RCPS Tools & Objectives Local government partnerships Reduce Demand Rules Permitting Research Tools Grants Decarbonize electricity Objectives Collaboration Outreach Promote Electrification Climate Research, Measurements and Observations inform our Rule Development and Policy Formulation Reduce Short- Lived Climate Pollutants
GHG Emissions Inventory CH 4 emissions 2015 GHG Emissions by Pollutant Total = 88 MMT CO 2 -equivalent 20-year time scale * - CH 4 (GWP = 86) ~ 11% of total
GHG Monitoring and Measurement Program Research Track GHG trends over time Evaluate and improve the regional GHG emissions inventory Determine facility-level and process-level GHG emissions estimates Educate and inform the public Provide data and resources to promote climate change research Create a reproducible model for other regional agencies Collaboration
GHG Monitoring Network Fixed-site GHG monitoring network - Upwind / downwind sites looking at long-term CO 2 and CH 4 trends - Determine trends of GHG concentrations over time - GHG data website provides data access to general public Mobile Measurement Platform (Research Van) - CH 4 and N 2 O hotspot detection - Tracer based GHG source identification - Region-wide source-specific surveys to inform Emissions Inventory, Compliance/Enforcement and Rule Development work Harvard - Munich EM27s & NASA - CMS project NASA CMS 2017 Proposal NASA-JPL AVIRIS / HYTES CALGEM UC Davis / Scientific Aviation
GHG Fixed-site Network Background site at Bodega Bay Remote and non-urban Prevailing northwesterly winds Three downwind sites at regional plume exit locations - Bethel Island Livermore San Martin
Intersite-comparison Plots Seasonal trends and intersite comparisons on a decadal time scale, along with modeling and estimation of regional emissions will help to evaluate the efficacy of Air District mitigation programs, rules, policies, incentives, grants etc. Summer 2016 Winter 2016-17 Fall 2016
GHG Mobile Monitoring Platform Perform CH 4 and N 2 O hotspot detection. Perform methane source attribution with chemical tracers - Ethane : fugitive O&G - Isotopic ratio of 13 C / 12 C : biological vs fossil-based - N 2 O : anaerobic Derive GHG emission ratios Investigate under-inventoried / unknown sources
GHG Van Surveys Chemical source tracer measurements are critical for effective van-based urban GHG source apportionment Organics Composting Refinery Storage Tanks
Collaborations - Airborne Survey UC Davis CH 4 Mass Estimation Flights (Oct Dec, 2016) - Methane airborne measurements - Elliptical vertical-profile curtain flights around facility - Facility-scale CH 4 mass emission rates Facilities flown around includes landfills, refineries, dairies, underground gas storage and more.
Collaborations - Column CH 4 Study HARVARD differential column measurements (Oct - Nov, 2016) - Total column CH 4 and CO 2 using solar tracking spectrometers - Combine data with weather research forecast model and atmospheric transport model - Top-down CO 2 and CH 4 regional emission estimates
Collaborations Aerial CH 4 Remote Sensing NASA JPL (Sep - Oct 2016) - High-res airborne infrared imaging CH 4 hotspot detection - CARB/CEC funded - Plume images useful to identify missing sources; future ground studies
Collaborations - Other Measurement Networks CALGEM BEACON High density network of low cost CO 2 sensors Generate highly spatial resolution maps of real-time pollutant concentrations including NOx, ozone and CO. Spatial CH 4 Inventory and Inverse Analysis 1-km resolution spatially resolved CH 4 inventory. Back-trajectory analysis of CH 4 and ethane from six sites to estimate sector-specific CH 4 contributions in the region (Fall 2015)
GHG Science and Research Attract the GHG research community to partner with the Air District Collaborate and participate to evaluate Bay Area s GHG emissions using top-down techniques including developing better understanding of source strengths and sector wise distribution Identify under-inventoried sources and resolve inventory discrepancies and uncertainties through measurements Create science that is applied to decision making
Thank you! Abhinav Guha - aguha@baaqmd.gov Phil Martien pmartien@baaqmd.gov Abby Young ayoung@baaqmd.gov Bay Area Air Quality Management District 375 Beale Street, San Francisco 94105 http://www.baaqmd.gov/ghgdata
Why measure GHGs in the Bay Area? Evaluate the effectiveness of Air District rules, policies, incentives and grants in achieving massive GHG emission reductions Tools Grants Rules Permitting Local government partnerships Decarbonize electricity Reduce Demand Objectives Outreach Promote Electrification Reduce Short- Lived Climate Pollutants
Why measure GHGs in the Bay Area? Verify and validate that estimates in the GHG emissions inventory are accurate Tools Grants Permitting Rules Decarbonize electricity Reduce Demand 2015 GHG Emissions by Pollutant Total = 88 MMT CO 2 -equivalent Outreach
Why measure GHGs in the Bay Area? In California specific studies - bottom-up methods under-estimate actual emissions of CH 4 (Wunch et al., 2009; Hsu et al., 2010; Wennberg et al., 2012; Peischl et al., 2013; Jeong et al., 2014) Fairley and Fischer, 2015; Jeong et al. 2017 - top-down CH 4 emissions are 1.3 2.3 times greater than the bottom-up estimates
GHG Fixed-site Network Instrumentation CO 2 and CH 4, along with combustion tracer CO, (G2401; Picarro Inc.) Calibrated against NOAA primary GHG standards Data quality that meets WMO standards CH 4 within 2 ppb, and CO 2 within 0.1 ppm
Mobile Platform GHG Survey Anaerobic Digestion facility Excess Air Concentrations on Jan 7, 2016 - adjacent to biofilters (vertical axis - CH 4 minus 1.9 ppm, CO 2 minus 405 ppm, N 2 O minus 324 ppb), bottom axis local time of day in HH:MM (courtesy: Tom Kirchstetter, LBNL)