Prepare(d) for impact photovoltaics on its way to terawatt-scale use Wim Sinke www.ecn.nl
Contents The photovoltaic technology portfolio - wafer-based silicon in perspective Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts - can wafer-based silicon deliver? Outlook - the benefits of diversity
Contents The photovoltaic technology portfolio - wafer-based silicon in perspective Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts - can wafer-based silicon deliver? Outlook - the benefits of diversity
The many faces of wafer-based silicon PV Early vision (Bell) Bolivia Spain (Aesol) City of the Sun, NL Floriade, NL Mali SunPower ECN Imec Sanyo
Cell & module technologies (flat plate) Toyota Commercial: wafer-based crystalline silicon - monocrystalline - multicrystalline - ribbons Module efficiencies 13 ~ 19% Würth Solar Helianthos First Solar Commercial: thin films - silicon - copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS) - cadmium telluride (CdTe) Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13% ECN/Holst Centre Amolf Pilot production and laboratory: emerging and novel technologies - super-low-cost concepts - super-high-efficiency concepts
Cell & module technologies (concentrator) (FhG-ISE) Abengoa/Concentrix Commercial: multi-junction III-V semiconductors Module efficiencies 25 ~ 30%
PV technology shares 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7 25-10- megawatts installed gigawatts installed terawatts installed 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050 Wafers and thin films; flat-plate & concentrator Concentrator PV; emerging technologies Thin-film CIGS Thin-film CdTe Thin-film Si Wafer-based Si Sources: - Photon International 03 2011 - Solar Generation 6 - Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.) - own estimates
Contents The photovoltaic technology portfolio - wafer-based silicon in perspective Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts - can wafer-based silicon deliver? Outlook - the benefits of diversity
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats 9
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths high efficiency extensive track record reliability & lifetime synergy with micro- & nanoelectronics industry Opportunities Weaknesses Threats 10
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths high efficiency extensive track record reliability & lifetime synergy with micro- & nanoelectronics industry Opportunities Weaknesses (current) poorly integrated processing significant materials cost component suboptimal aesthetics of some products Threats 11
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths high efficiency extensive track record reliability & lifetime synergy with micro- & nanoelectronics industry Opportunities Weaknesses (current) poorly integrated processing significant materials cost component suboptimal aesthetics of some products Threats 12
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths high efficiency extensive track record reliability & lifetime synergy with micro- & nanoelectronics industry Opportunities further increase total-area efficiency reduce materials consumption & use low-cost materials implement advanced device designs & processes Weaknesses (current) poorly integrated processing significant materials cost component suboptimal aesthetics of some products Threats 13
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths high efficiency extensive track record reliability & lifetime synergy with micro- & nanoelectronics industry Opportunities further increase total-area efficiency reduce materials consumption & use low-cost materials implement advanced device designs & processes Weaknesses (current) poorly integrated processing significant materials cost component suboptimal aesthetics of some products Threats 14
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths high efficiency Selected options for extensive improvement: track record heterojunctions reliability & lifetime rear-contact synergy with /rear micro- junction cell & nanoelectronics designs industry n-type silicon Opportunities Al 2 O 3 surface passivation kerfless further increase wafer cutting total-area advanced efficiency light trapping seeded ingot casting reduce materials consumption high quality solar grade silicon & use low-cost materials Cu replacing Ag new implement encapsulants advanced device tandems designs & processes more Weaknesses (current) poorly integrated processing significant materials cost component suboptimal aesthetics of some products Threats 15
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT Strengths high efficiency extensive track record reliability & lifetime synergy with micro- & nanoelectronics industry Opportunities further increase total-area efficiency reduce materials consumption & use low-cost materials implement advanced device designs & processes Weaknesses (current) poorly integrated processing significant materials cost component suboptimal aesthetics of some products Threats innovations remain in the lab cost reduction curve saturates at too high level (what is needed for very large scale use?) image of technology of the past 16
Contents The photovoltaic technology portfolio - wafer-based silicon in perspective Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts - can wafer-based silicon deliver? Outlook - the benefits of diversity
The benefits of diversity
Evolution of technology portfolio and module efficiencies (IEA PV Roadmap, 2010)
Crystalline silicon: first generation PV?
Crystalline silicon: first generation PV?
Summary 22
Thank you: my colleagues at ECN and at Utrecht University the members of the European Photovoltaic Technology Platform the people at EPIA, WIP, Eurec and JRC the CrystalClear team the Becquerel committee the European Commission and the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs my family: Ineke, Koen, Pelle and Corijn you, the audience all other PV advocates around the world
Greenpeace 9 March 201024 24