Release date: 16 December 2015 Placed to Win Emerging Nations Set to Shake Up Natural Order Castrol releases its latest Natural Products Trade Barometer, part of the Castrol Global Trade Barometer Index highlights China s influence on the global natural products market Emerging nations are challenging the world s top exporters of natural products Established economies remain the biggest trading nations for natural products, but emerging economies will be among the major players by 2019 according to the latest Castrol Natural Products Trade Barometer. China, the US and Germany still sit at the head of the top ten natural products trading nations and exporters league tables. But emerging nations are by far the fastest-growing traders, and could soon catch some of the established exporters. Mandhir Singh, COO at Castrol, says, The nations that appear in the Castrol Natural Products Trade Barometer have a huge amount of influence over global food supply and a comparative advantage over many established countries. The next few years are likely to produce a shift in the balance of power in global natural products trade. The big players may start to feel the pressure, as a vanguard of emerging nations continues to grow export volumes. As a global lubricant supplier, Castrol enables goods to be mined, made and moved around the world. The Castrol Global Trade Barometer (CGTB) is a series of reports tracking the performance and outlook of global trade based on a rolling, five-year forecast of future trade patterns (incorporating a Trade Barometer and Trade Outlook Index). It gives the big picture view of world exports and imports helping senior business decision-makers to understand the drivers of global trade and growth opportunities across five sectors. The Natural Products Trade Barometer tracks the value of natural products production in the world s top 50 trading nations. Top traders China is the world s largest trader in natural products (Table 1), with forecast annualised growth of 6.79% to 2019. It is also the world s biggest exporter (Table 2) and the third largest importer (Table 3) of natural products. With a reduction of croplands and a rising population, China is now importing around half the world s exported soy. Benefiting from this demand from China is Brazil, now one of the world s top soybean exporters. It has also entered the top ten leading trading nations in natural products for the first time, replacing Belgium in tenth place (Table 1). Despite Belgium s exit, European nations still take up six of the top ten spots (Table 1). Germany lies in third place, behind leaders China and the US, followed by France, the Netherlands and Italy. Spain and the United Kingdom sit after seventh-placed Japan.
Mandhir Singh, COO at Castrol, says, Because the three leaders, China, the US and Germany, have substantially higher values than any of the other top ten exporters, their position as the leading global exporters looks assured for some time. However, the rapid growth of emerging economies suggests that new suppliers may be hot on their heels. The new wave Emerging nations dominate the top ten fastest-growing natural products traders (Table 4). Vietnam has jumped to the top of the table, and is ideally placed to consolidate its lead. An advantageous geographic position, access to cheap labour and the country s efforts to improve trade conditions are all helping to strengthen Vietnam s competitive edge. Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand have the fastest rates of growth within the top ten natural products exporters (Table 2). If their forecast growth is realised, it is likely that they will become major players by 2019. Brazil, for example, would overtake the Netherlands, and begin to challenge Germany to become the world s third largest exporter of natural products. And with six of the top ten fastest-growing trading nations (Table 4), the Asia-Pacific region is showing signs that it will dominate the global natural products market in the future. Mandhir Singh, COO at Castrol, says, The fastest rates of growth in the Natural Products Trade Barometer are predominantly emerging economies, albeit from a low base. This reflects their growing capacity to produce and export not just natural products, but also food, clothing, and raw construction materials; as well as increasing global demand for these products. ENDS Editor s notes Further information Press releases on the following are also available: 1. The overall Castrol Global Trade Barometer 2. The Aerospace Trade Barometer 3. The Automotive Manufacturing Trade Barometer 4. The Industrial Trade Barometer 5. The Marine Trade Barometer incorporating The Castrol Global Port Report Download the full report, an infographic or videographic of the data, or explore further related content on the report s microsite: www.castrol.com/minedmademoved For more information please contact: Rosie Murphy or Bekki Parish Man Bites Dog Tel: +44 (0)1273 716 820 Email: teamcastrol@manbitesdog.com
About the Castrol Global Trade Barometer The Natural Products Trade Barometer is a crucial measure of trade in global commodities. It comprises all agricultural trade, such as plants, vegetables, animal products, textiles, rubber and ceramics. The 2015 Castrol Global Trade Barometer sits under the Mined, Made, Moved brand umbrella. It helps our customers assess potential growth opportunities across key sectors and markets by highlighting underlying growth trends and the key drivers of trade. The CGTB is based on detailed economic modelling of investment grade trade data covering 200 countries and 10,000 sectors worldwide, interpolated from UN Comtrade, IMF, ITC and country statistical office data. The CGTB includes a five year forecast which will help to inform business strategy as our customers look to 2016 and beyond. Data for 20 parameters used in the forecast is taken from sources including Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, UNCTAD, WTO, IMF, ILO and the World Bank. The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is based on methodology and data provided by our specialist trade economist partner. This report should therefore be considered independent from, and not necessarily consistent with, the BP Energy Outlook. More information on the barometer s methodology and construction can be at www.castrol.com/minedmademoved About Castrol Castrol is one of the world s leading manufacturers and marketers of premium lubricating oils, greases, metal working fluids, control fluids and related services to automotive, manufacturing, mining, marine, and oil exploration and production customers across the world. Castrol couples high quality lubricant engineering with an expert technical support network and supply capability to deliver quality solutions wherever customers need them. Castrol employs over 7,500 people, it operates directly in more than 80 countries, and is represented by over 2,000 third party distributors. Part of the BP group, the company is headquartered in the UK. At the forefront of pioneering technology with its 13 R&D centres globally, Castrol invests every year in research and development of lubricants. Castrol s global teams of specialists have a deep understanding of what customers need and advise on solutions designed to optimize performance and help improve quality, productivity and the environmental, health and safety profiles of their customers. The brand represents over 100 years experience in liquid engineering : producing advanced lubricants for a wide range of applications, from manufacturing processes and metalworking to mining, shipping and marine activities and energy production. Castrol s products and services play a critical role in lubricating the global economy through what is mined, made and moved around the world. Data tables Table 1: Top ten natural products trading nations 1. China 528.73 2. US 394.97 3. Germany 288.39 4. France 184.59 5. Netherlands 170.63 6. Italy 160.64 7. Japan 132.93 8. Spain 122.40 9. United Kingdom 121.35 10. Brazil 105.31
Table 2: Top ten natural products exporters 1. China 401.15 2. US 160.89 3. Germany 116.52 4. Netherlands 84.85 5. Brazil 83.05 6. France 78.60 7. Italy 74.04 8. Indonesia 68.90 9. Spain 57.65 10. Thailand 57.57 Table 3: Top ten natural products importers 1. US 234.08 2. Germany 171.87 3. China 127.57 4. France 105.99 5. Japan 104.12 6. United Kingdom 92.07 7. Italy 86.61 8. Netherlands 85.78 9. Russia 67.49 10. Spain 64.75 Table 4: Fastest-growing natural products trading nations CAGR 2014-19* (%) 1. Vietnam 9.48 2. Nigeria 9.06 3. Iraq 9.05 4. Indonesia 8.85 5. Malaysia 8.45 6. Algeria 8.25 7. South Korea 8.18 8. Thailand 8.16 9. Australia 8.12 10. India 8.10 * annualised growth over five years 2014-2019