Market Alert China NPK Statistical Update February Exports China Customs reported that high-analysis phosphate exports (DAP/ MAP/TSP) fell to 65,200 tonnes in February, a drop of 54% from uary and 58% less than the seven-year Olympic average for the month. Exports of all three products fell last month, and China exported no MAP in February. Exports during the first two months of totaled 206,400 tonnes, 11% less than last year and 53% below the average for this period. More than 36% of high-analysis phosphate exports have been sold to Indian buyers so far this year. India accounted for over half of exports during, but the vast majority of those purchases were made in the second half of the year. Our team in Beijing estimates that DAP/MAP/TSP exports will increase 16% from 5.4 million tonnes last year to 6.3 million in due to additional capacity and slightly more favorable export policies. Based on our estimate of channel stocks, it appears China has substantial product available for export during the low tax window that runs from May 16 to October 15. Highlights DAP/MAP/TSP exports totaled 65,200 tonnes in February, a drop of 54% from uary. exports are off to a slow start and now total 206,400 tonnes, 53% below average. Urea shipments totaled 306,400 tonnes in February, up 19% from the average for the month. exports are now 5% above the average for the first two months of the year. MOP imports of 359,600 tonnes were down 23% from the average for the month. imports are down 27% from the average but are expected to pick up beginning in March. Sulphur imports topped 1.1 million tonnes, and imports are now 30% higher than the average for this period. China Plant Nutrient Exports Phosphate rock exports have declined as China developed its large domestic phosphate industry. Between 2001 and 2005, exports averaged around 280,000 tonnes per month. Since the beginning of, rock exports have averaged only around 47,000 tonnes per month. Phosphate exports jumped in February to 65,300 tonnes, significantly higher than uary but still not enough to bring year-todate exports up to par with the average for this period. Japan and New Zealand accounted for 46% and 37% of tonnage from China, respectively, so far this year. South Korea purchased almost 70% of Chinese phosphate rock exports (488,500 tonnes) last year. Urea exports totaled 306,400 tonnes in February, a slight drop from last month but a major increase from nearly zero last year and 19% greater than the average for the month. India purchased more than one-third of the tonnage in February, but the United States accounted for 72,000 tonnes. Urea exports during the first two months of the year totaled 614,700 tonnes, up more than 400% from the low level last year but only 5% higher than the average for this period. India accounted for almost one-half of all urea shipments from China in. The U.S. was a distant second, accounting for 7% or 474,000 tonnes. Imports Muriate of potash (MOP) imports in February totaled 359,600 tonnes, 22% less than uary and down 23% from the average for the month. MOP imports so far this year are 35% less than and 27% below the average for this period. Around 58% of MOP has been sourced from Russia this year (all via rail). Russia accounted for 45% of Chinese imports in, while Canada accounted for 16%. Import arrivals are projected to pick-up sharply, and our China team projects that MOP imports will reach 7.0 million tonnes in, up 10% from 6.3 million last year. Current Month 1000 MT Feb 13 DAP 51 68-25% 46 10% 67-25% MAP 0 30-100% 11-100% 27-100% TSP 15 43-66% 51-71% 54-73% DAP/MAP/TSP 65 141-54% 108-40% 155-58% P Rock 65 8 745% 33 95% 51 28% MOP 11 12-4% 17-35% 11 3% Urea 306 308-1% 1 49972% 258 19% NPK 0 1-94% 0 N/A 11-99% Year-To-Date 1000 MT DAP 118 132-14 -10% 194-75 -39% MAP 30 24 7 28% 92-61 -67% TSP 58 77-19 -25% 115-57 -50% DAP/MAP/TSP 206 233-26 -11% 438-232 -53% P Rock 73 97-24 -24% 121-48 -40% MOP 23 37-14 -38% 30-7 -23% Urea 615 116 498 429% 583 32 5% NPK 1 0 1 N/A 23-21 -94% Month China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports by Destination -Feb Month Feb 12 12% Vietnam 12% Iran 13% Indonesia 13% India 36% Thailand 14% 4/4/ 1
Sulphur imports in February reached 1.1 million tonnes, up 9% from uary and 54% greater than the seven-year Olympic average for the month. Year-to-date imports totaled 2.1 million tonnes, a bump of 11% from and up 30% from the average for this period. China imports sulphur from more origins than it does for MOP or NPKs. For example, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia account for the largest percentage of shipments so far this year (23% and 16%, respectively). The two nations combined accounted for around 30% of imports last year. NPK imports have slowed since the start of 2007 to around 94,000 tonnes per month on average. February NPK imports totaled 96,700 tonnes, a drop of 22% from last month and 16% below the average for the month. Year-to-date imports totaled 220,300 tonnes, slightly greater than the average for this period. China imported two-thirds of its NPKs from Russia so far this year. One-half of its imports were shipped from Russia in. Plant Nutrient Prices The quantity and price of Chinese phosphate exports will be important factors to watch in the coming months. The price of DAP fob China ports has dropped from the $560-$570 range in mid- to a low of $500-$510 per tonne at the end of February. Prices have remained flat in March at around $505 per tonne. Negotiations in December locked in the price of standard MOP China c&f at $400 per tonne for the first half of, which was a drop from $470 per tonne that had been in place for the prior 18 months. The price of NPK China c&f (16-16-16) picked up slightly in February and March and reversed declines that had persisted since mid- when prices floated in the $510-$520 range. February prices fell in the $450-$470 per tonne range, while the average so far in March has narrowed to $460-$470 per tonne. The price of sulphur China c&f has trended downward from highs near $245 in June but has remained relatively steady since December in the $160-$175 per tonne range. Current Month 1000 MT Feb 13 MOP 360 459-22% 564-36% 466-23% Sulphur 1,120 1,025 9% 981 14% 727 54% NPK 97 124-22% 117-17% 116-16% Year-To-Date 1000 MT MOP 819 1,256-437 -35% 1,122-303 -27% Sulphur 2,145 1,932 213 11% 1,652 493 30% NPK 220 202 19 9% 213 7 3% US$ MT 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 China Plant Nutrient Imports Month Monthly Average Prices Source: Average from several publications 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 MOPST China c&f NPK China c&f Month Feb 12 DAP China fob Sulphur China c&f China MOP Imports by Origin -Feb RMB / US$ 8.5 Chinese Yuan (RMB) Canada 21% Israel 11% 8.0 7.5 Source: FOREX Russia 58% Belarus 8% 7.0 Germany 2% 6.5 6.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 4/4/ 2
Export Charts China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports Olympic Average 1.8 Olympic Average China Urea Exports Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports 1.8 China Urea Exports China Net DAP/MAP/TSP Exports 8.0, Fertecon, Mosaic 6.0 China Urea Exports by Destination -Feb 4.0 2.0 23% India 32% -2.0-4.0-6.0 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Actual Forecast Korea, South 7% Mexico 10% United States 17% Bangladesh 11% 4/4/ 3
Import Charts 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 Olympic Average China MOP Imports Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 Tonnes China NPK Imports 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Olympic Average Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec China MOP Imports 1000 Tonnes China NPK Imports 0.9 200 180 160 0.7 140 120 0.5 100 80 0.3 60 40 0.1 20 0 China MOP Imports 1, Mosaic 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Actual Forecast China NPK Imports by Origin -Feb Russia 67% Norway 18% Belarus 6% 3% Romania 4% Finland 2% 4/4/ 4
Olympic Average China Sulphur Imports Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec China Sulphur Imports China Sulphur Imports by Origin -Feb 34% Qatar 8% Japan 8% Kazakhstan 23% Saudi Arabia 16% Russia 11% 4/4/ 5
Safe-Harbor Statement This publication contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency s numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or possible efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin or the Gulf of Mexico; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic s operations are affecting nearby property uses; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of the Company s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the Mississippi River basin or the Gulf Coast of the United States, and including potential hurricanes, excess rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, or Canadian resources taxes and royalties; accidents and other disruptions involving Mosaic s operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine and other potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. 4/4/ 6