Catalyzing the development of low carbon transport in Asia and the Pacific: the role of ADB Bindu N. Lohani Vice President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development Asian Development Bank Keynote Address at the Final Symposium of Study of Long-Term Transport Action Plan for ASEAN 20 Feb, Tokyo Japan
Asia faces 6 MEGA Challenges Addressing Inequities and Disparities Inequities within countries (e.g. across geographical regions, rural vs. urban) major risks to social stability Disparities across countries increase risks: migration; tensions and even conflict Regional cooperation necessary to mitigate such risks Disparities across Countries and Subregions Gap between region s advanced and leastdeveloped economies larger than in any other region region must find ways to spread prosperity Disparities left unaddressed will create significant risks Avoiding the Middle Income Trap Inclusive growth and creation of large middle class Sound and efficient financial systems Technologically capable, skilled labor force Specialization to gain competitiveness Corruption under check Global Competition for Finite Resources Increasing affluence could lead to unsustainable pressure on finite natural resources Growth patterns and lifestyle must change dramatically Global Warming and Climate Change Climate change, and resulting severe water shortages mega challenge New growth model and much more eco-friendly and sustainable lifestyles Massive Urbanization Urban poverty Environmental stress and climate change Strain on urban mobility Need for livable cities
The region is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate Urban areas account for 84% of global GDP Urbanization is expected to grow by 3% annually in Asia About 1.1 billion people will move to cities in the next 20 years 600 cities account for 60% of GDP (50% of these cities are in Asia) 23 megacities account for 14% of Global GDP but will decline to 10% by 2025 577 second-tier cities to account for 50% of global GDP by 2025 The region is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate Source: McKinsey Global Institute. 2011. Urban world: Mapping of the economic power of cities. March 3
Mode share (p-km) Transport trends for Asia and the Pacific 70 60 50 40 Cars and motorcycles 30 20 10 0 2010 Public transport, walking, and cycling 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: ADB and IEA, 2011 4
Mode share (p-km) 70 Lag times 60 50 40 30 20 10 Public transport Cars and motorcycles The trend for the next 5 to 8 years is fixed 0 2010 2020 5
ADB s Sustainable Transport Initiative: Priority areas Urban Transport Transport and climate change Road safety and social sustainability Logistics and cross border transport 6
Strategy for sustainable transport Avoid unnecessary vehicle kilometers Smart growth Zoning regulations Information and communications technologies (ICT) Transit-oriented development Shift to the lowest-emitting modes Public transport Non-motorized transport Transportation demand management (TDM) Shift to rail freight Improve vehicle/fuel technology towards cleaner and more efficient options Alternative fuels Fuel efficiency standards Vehicle maintenance Vehicle testing
Supporting a wide range of investments Nonmotorized transport Inland waterways Urban public transport Railways 8
Linking cities through regional programs Central Asia Regional Cooperation (CAREC) Transport Corridors Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Program Railway linking Afghanistan and Uzbekistan
Progress ADB s transport so far transformation 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Urban Transport (mainly public and nonmotorized) 2% 17% 12% 16% 10% 21% 78% 74% 56% 2000-2009 2010-2013 7% 2014-2016 Projections 30% 25% 42% 2020 Target 2% 12% 16% 30% Railways 17% 10% 21% 25% Water Transport 2% 2% 2% Air Transport 1% 1% 1% Roads 78% 74% 56% 42% Other/Undefined 7% Amount (annual average) $1.9bn $3.5bn $3.6bn % of total ADB investment 29% 32% 32%
Transport Investments (2010-2013): Top 5 recipients by subsector 7000 7000 7000 7000 7000 6000 Uzbekistan 6000 Bangladesh 6000 6000 6000 5000 Viet Nam 5000 Kazakhstan 5000 5000 5000 India 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 Uzbekistan 3000 2000 1000 3000 2000 1000 Turkmenistan Bangladesh India PRC 3000 2000 1000 Mongolia Georgia Bangladesh PRC Viet Nam 3000 2000 1000 Bhutan Papua New Guinea 3000 2000 1000 Vanuatu Papua New Guinea PRC 0 Road 0 Rail 0 Urban 0 Air 0 Water Units: $ million 11
Changing the way we design projects Risk to Sustainability Economic 16.Design and evaluation risk 17.Implementation risk 18.Operational risk Environment and Climate Change 11.Greenhouse gas emissions 12.Transport-related emissions and pollution 13.Climate resilience 14.Natural and built environment 15.Resource efficiency 30% 10% 30% 30% 1. Efficiency: people 2. Efficiency: businesses 3. Quality & reliability 4. Fiscal burden 5. Wider economic benefits: regional, urban, rural Poverty & Social 6. Basic accessibility 7. Employment 8. Affordability 9. Safety 10.Inclusion and social cohesion Piloting Sustainable Transport Appraisal Rating (STAR) Available at: http://www.adb.org/publications/toward-sustainability-appraisal-framework-transport
Voluntary commitment at Rio+20 $175 billion for more sustainable transport in developing countries (from 2012 to 2021)
First progress report just launched: MDBs are on target! More than $20 billion in financing in 2012 Shift towards urban transport, railways, incorporation of safety/climate adaptation/asset management in road projects MDBs providing much more than financing: capacity building, knowledge, policy dialogue Available at: http://www.adb.org/documents/progress-report-2012-2013-mdb-working-group-sustainable-transport
Our continued commitment to sustainable transport 15
Thank you for your attention ご清聴ありがとうございました 16