IMPACT ASSESSMENT DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE IN A COLOMBIAN ANDEAN BASIN Ocampo O.L. 1-2, Vélez J.J. 1 and Londoño A 1 1 Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales. Instituto Estudios Ambientales IDEA. 2 Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Centro de Estudios Ambientales CEA.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE IN COLOMBIAN ANDEAN BASINS INTRODUCTION METHODS RESULTS CONCLUSIONS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)
National Natural Park Los Nevados Caldas, Colombia INTRODUCTION (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)
The severity of impact due to global change depends not only on the climate extremes but also on exposure and vulnerability; which are influenced by different factors, including: Climate Change, Natural Climate Variability, Socioeconomic Development Ecosystem Sensitivity. (IPCC, 2007; 2012) Manizales, Caldas, Colombia (La Patria, 2011)
Both climatic variability and long-term climate change impacts are particularly severe in developing countries, as Colombia. Colombian Andean Basins are particularly vulnerable and therefore, local studies are required to estimate their vulnerability. Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia
National Natural Park Los Nevados Caldas, Colombia METHODS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)
The case study includes a River Basin located at Caldas department, in the Colombian Andes; where high temporal and spatial variability in precipitation, temperature, topography, vegetation cover, land use, land cover, soil type, geology and geomorphology are observed.
Case study The Chinchina River Basin (1050 km 2 ) is located on the western slopes at the central range in the Andes at the South central region of Caldas, Colombia, South America.
Page 10
The water resources vulnerability has been evaluated considering the Basin susceptibility to preserve and maintain the current hydrological regimen to possible global changes. Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia
Climatic data sources IDEAM: Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies of Colombia, CENICAFE: National Coffee Research Center CHEC: Caldas Hydroelectric
LONG-TERM MEAN RIVER FLOWS The general procedure for estimating global change hydrological impacts was conducted in the following stages: 1- Model calibration TETIS model (Francés F, Vélez J.I and Vélez J.J., 2007) Evapotranspiration Soil tank Precipitation 2- Model validation 3- Simulation for 1981-2010. 4- Simulation for 2010-2039 [2020], according to climate change scenarios. Groundwater tank Flow separation Run off Base flow 5- Estimating hydrological indexes Abcd model (Thomas,1981) channel
Calibration and Validation procedures Split sample (Singh et al, 2004): Percent bias (PBIAS) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) PBIAS NSE RSR Performance Rating PBIAS < ±10 0,75 < NSE < 1,0 0.00 < RSR < 0.50 Very Good ±10 < PBIAS < ±15 0,65 < NSE < 0,75 0.50 < RSR < 0.60 Good ±15 < PBIAS < ±25 0,50 < NSE < 0,65 0.60 < RSR < 0.70 Satisfactory PBIAS > ±25 NSE < 0,50 RSR > 0.70 Unsatisfactory (Moriasi et al, 2007)
Climate Change Scenarios IPCC-III Period: 2010-2039 [2020] Scenarios A2 and B2 GCM: - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) - CSIRO-Mk2 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) - CCCMA (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) Statistical downscaling by the delta method (Villegas & Jarvis, 2010)
The potential impact assessment It was performed using the following hydrological indexes: Retention and water regulation capacity Aridity index Water use Quality index Per capita water availability Vulnerability index Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia Page 16
Retention and water regulation index (IRH) IRH Qualitative assessment >0,85 Very High 0,75-0,85 High 0,65-0,75 Moderate 0,50-0,65 Low <0,5 Very Low Aridity Index (I aridez ) I aridez Qualitative assessment < 0,15 High excedences 0,15-0,19 Excedences 0,20 0,29 Moderate and Excedences 0,30 0,39 Moderate 0,40 0,49 Low 0,50-0,59 Deficit >0,60 High deficit (IDEAM, 2010)
Relative water stress index (RWSI) RWSI Qualitative assessment > 0,4 high water stress 0,2 0,4 moderate water stress 0,10-0,2 low water stress <0,1 no water stress Water use index or water scarcity index I ua Qualitative assessment >50% Very High 20 50% High 10-20% Moderate 1-10% Low < 1% Very Low (IDEAM, 2010; UNESCO, 2009)
Per capita water availability Per capita water Category Observations availabity m 3 /per-year >1700 Water availability The threshold above which water shortage occurs only irregularly or locally 1700-1001 Water stress Water stress appears regularly 1000 501 Water scarcity Water scarcity is a limitation to economic development and human health and well-being < 500 High water scarcity Water availability is a main constraint to life (Falkenmark, 1999, IDEAM, 2010; UNESCO, 2009)
Water pollution Index Category Qualitative Assessment PollutantLoad (Ton/year)/Mm 3 BOD COD-BOD TSS TN TP 1 Low < 0,13 < 0,13 < 0,3 < 0,02 < 0,004 2 Moderate 0,14 0,39 0,14 0,35 0,40 0,70 0,03 0,05 0,005 0,013 3 Medium 0,40 1,20 0,36 1,16 0,80 1,80 0,06-0,13 0,014-0,035 4 High 1,21-4,85 1,17-6,77 1,90-7,60 0,14-0,55 0,036-0,0134 5 Very High >4,86 >6,78 >7,70 >0,56 >0,135 (IDEAM, 2010)
Vulnerability Index Retention and water regulation index (IRH) Water use index (IUA) Categories Vulnerability Index IV IRH- High IRH- Moderate IRH- Low IRH- Very Low IUA Very High Medium High High Very High IUA - High Medium High High Very High IUA- Moderate Medium Medium High High IUA- Low Low Low Medium Medium IUA Very Low Very Low Low Medium Medium (IDEAM, 2010)
Chinchina River Basin, Caldas, Colombia RESULTS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)
OBSERVED STREAM FLOW Time series of river flows showed positive and negative trends El Retiro-m 3 /s Sancancio-m 3 /s Montevideo-m 3 /s Chupaderos-m 3 /s
Stream Flow m 3 /s 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Montevideo Station OBSERVED STREAM FLOW 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 50 El Retiro Station Stream Flow m 3 /s 40 30 20 10 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1971-2000 1981-2009
HYDROLOGICAL MODELING PBIAS, % NSE 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Percent bias-pbias Tetis model abcd model 4.9% 5.7% -0.16% -2.0% -6.8% -9% Calibration 2001-2007 Validation 1987-1993 Simulation 1981-2010 Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency-nse 0.89 0.81 0.69 0.68 0.66 0.62 Calibration 2001-2007 Validation 1987-1993 Simulation 1981-2010 RSR 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.56 0.44 0.34 Calibration Here comes 2001-2007 your footer Validation 1987-1993 Simulation 1981-2010
HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION 1981-2010 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 PPT Simulated Tetis Observed flow Simulated abcd 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Jan-81 Feb-82 Mar-83 Apr-84 May-85 Jun-86 Jul-87 Aug-88 Sep-89 Oct-90 Nov-91 Dec-92 Jan-94 Feb-95 Mar-96 Apr-97 May-98 Jun-99 Jul-00 Aug-01 Sep-02 Oct-03 Nov-04 Dec-05 Jan-07 Feb-08 Mar-09 River Flow m 3 /s 160 Simulated Tetis Observed flow Simulated abcd 140 120 100 80 60 40 River Flow (m 3 /s) 20 0 0 Here 20 comes your footer 40 60 80 100
Hydrological indicators Chinchina River Basin Aridity Index Retention and water regulation index Total water supply Mm 3 /year Environmental Flow Mm 3 /year Available water supply Mm 3 /year HYDROLOGICAL INDEXES Observed Flow 1981-2010 Medium Flow Dry Years Wet Years Value Category Value Value Category Category 0.36 Very Low 838±15 408±58 2302±506 373 465 34 1929 WaterDemand Mm3/year 90 90.2 90.2 Per capita water availability m 3 / 1554 Water 757 Scarcity 3570 Excess year stress Relative water stress index (RWSI) 0.19 Moderate 1 High water 0.05 No water stress stress WaterUse Index 19 Moderate 100 Very High 5 Low Potential alteration water Very High Very High Very High quality Water vulnerability index High Very High Medium
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IPCCIII- PRECIPITATION 2010-2039 20% Precipitation Anomalies % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2-20% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Altitude
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IPCCIII- TEMPERATURE 2010-2039 Temperature Anomalies C Cambio Climático 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Altitude m HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2
HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION 2010-2039- TETIS MODEL Flow m 3 /s 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1981-2009 HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 Flow m 3 /s 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1981-2009 HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2
HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION 2010-2039- TETIS MODEL 0% -5% -10% -1% -4% -7% -15% -13% -12% -20% -13% Flow Anomalies % HADCHM3_A2 CSIRO_A2 CCMA_A2 HADCHM3_B2 CSIRO_B2 CCMA_B2
HYDROLOGICAL INDEXES Simulated Flow Tetis Model Hydrological indicators 2010-2039 1981-2010 Chinchina River Basin HADCHM3_A2 Value Category Value Category Total water supply 805±11 599±38 Mm 3 /year Environmental Flow 373 Mm 3 /year Available water supply 465 320,6 Mm 3 /year Water Demand 90 245 Mm 3 /year Per capita water availability 1554 Water 988 Scarcity m 3 / year stress Relative water stress index (RWSI) 0.19 Moderate 0.76 high water stress Water Use Index 19 Moderate 76 Very High Potential alteration water Very Very High quality High Water vulnerability index High Very High
Manizales, Caldas, Colombia CONCLUSIONS (Ocampo O.L., Vélez J.J. and Londoño A., 2013)
Conclusions The Andean mountain river basins are vulnerable to global change; however, the potential water availability reduction and the increasing demand would accentuate the water resources vulnerability. Therefore, effective adaptation measures are required to reduce effects and impacts of global change. It is necessary to consider the possible effects of global change and climate variability on current decisions, which could have a lasting impact on vulnerability and the ease of the adaptation process to climate changes as they occur.
Acknowledgements The authors want to thank IDEA, IDEAM, CORPOCALDAS and CHEC for providing hydro-climatic data. The support of the Faculty of Engineering, the Program Capacity building of processing and analysis of environmental information and the Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas - VACEA Project were also significant.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE IN COLOMBIAN ANDEAN BASINS Ocampo O.L. 1-2, Vélez J.J. 1 and Londoño A 1 1 Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales. Instituto Estudios Ambientales IDEA. 2 Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Centro de Estudios Ambientales CEA.