The Australian Institute of Building Queensland Construction Outlook Paul Hodgson (Chief Operating Officer) Construction Skills Queensland
Queensland Construction Outlook AIB Qld Chapter Tattersalls Club, Brisbane 26 February 2015 Paul Hodgson, Chief Operating Officer
Construction Activity Sentiment Building Approvals Forecasts Employment and Training Technological Trends Occupation/Skills Priorities 3
Construction Activity 4
Residential and Commercial Construction Activity Total activity is higher than last year but has remained stable over the most recent quarter Total value of building work done by sector, Queensland 2008-2014 $6.0b $5.0b $4.0b $3.0b $2.0b $1.0b $0.0b Sep-2008 Dec-2008 Mar-2009 Jun-2009 Sep-2009 Dec-2009 Mar-2010 Jun-2010 Sep-2010 Dec-2010 Mar-2011 Jun-2011 Sep-2011 Dec-2011 Mar-2012 Jun-2012 Sep-2012 Dec-2012 Mar-2013 Jun-2013 Sep-2013 Dec-2013 Mar-2014 Jun-2014 Sep-2014 Residential Commercial Total Source: ABS. 8752.0 Sept 2014, Seasonally Adjusted 5
Engineering Construction Activity Engineering construction activity has declined driven by a fall in the large heavy industry (mining) subsector $14b Total value of engineering construction work done by subsector, Queensland 2009-2014 $12b $10b $8b $6b $4b $2b $0b Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Roads Bridges, railways, harbours Electricity Water Telecommunications Recreation Heavy industry (incl. mining) Source: ABS. 8762.0 Sept 2014, Original 6
Sentiment 7
Construction Industry Sentiment Building Industry Outlook Gold Coast 66.7 Sentiment softened slightly in the December quarter but remained mostly positive Brisbane 63.8 Far North Queensland 62.5 Sunshine Coast 61.4 Darling Downs and South West Queensland 58.3 North Queensland 55.4 Mackay 53.7 Burnett Wide Bay 50 Central Queensland 47.6 Queensland 59.8 *QMBA indexes range between 0 and 100. An index level of 50 indicates satisfactory conditions. Higher results indicate relatively more positive conditions while index levels of less than 50 indicate less satisfactory conditions. Source: QMBA. Survey of Industry Conditions, Dec 2014. 8
Building approvals 9
Hotspot: Queensland 10
Residential Building Approvals by Region Residential values mostly increased except for resource exposed regions. Total value of residential building approvals ($millions), CSQ regions 2013-2014 2013 2014 Growth (%) Far North Qld 291.9 375.4 28.6 Gold Coast 977.7 1,228.6 25.7 Brisbane 4,450.6 5,549.1 24.7 Ipswich 515.6 641.4 24.4 Sunshine Coast 737.4 890.3 20.7 Wide Bay 324.1 387.2 19.5 South West 470.8 521.9 10.8 Northern Qld 496.1 483.3-2.6 Central Qld 685.4 377.3-45.0 Mackay 651.5 314.3-51.8 Queensland 9,601.0 10,768.7 12.2 Source: ABS. 8731.0 Jul 2013, Original; ABS 8731.0 Dec 2014, Original. AIB Construction Outlook Feb 2015 11
Commercial Building Approvals by Region By contrast, commercial sector values declined markedly across most regions. Total value of commercial building approvals ($millions), CSQ regions 2013-2014 2013 2014 Growth (%) South West Qld 302.7 423.6 39.9 Gold Coast 803.2 1,066.4 32.8 Ipswich 443.5 544.1 22.7 Far North Qld 185.2 173.3-6.4 Northern Qld 316.9 249.1-21.4 Wide Bay 293.7 225.4-23.3 Brisbane 3,667.6 2,509.1-31.6 Central Qld 318.5 178.4-44.0 Mackay 419.8 196.3-53.3 Sunshine Coast 1,238.8 307.3-75.2 Queensland 7,989.8 5,873.1-26.5 Source: ABS. 8731.0 Jul 2013, Original; ABS 8731.0 Dec 2014, Original. AIB Construction Outlook Feb 2015 12
Queensland: Building activity by type More consistent growth is apparent for residential subsectors, particularly higher density residential buildings (flats, units and apartments). $6b Value of building approvals by type, QLD 2013-2014 $5b $4b $3b $2b $1b $0b Mar qtr 2013 Jun qtr 2013 Sep qtr 2013 Dec qtr 2013 Mar qtr 2014 Jun qtr 2014 Sep qtr 2014 Dec qtr 2014 New houses New other residential Alts and additions Commercial buildings Industrial buildings Social/institutional Source: ABS. 8731.0 Jul 2014, Original; ABS. 8731.0 Dec 2014, Original. AIB Construction Outlook Feb 2015 13
Queensland: Building Activity by Month The number of approvals increased in December but are lower than at the same time last year. 4,000 Building approval value and counts, QLD 2012-2014 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Dec-2012 Jan-2013 Feb-2013 Mar-2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun-2013 Jul-2013 Aug-2013 Sep-2013 Oct-2013 Nov-2013 Dec-2013 Jan-2014 Feb-2014 Mar-2014 Apr-2014 May-2014 Jun-2014 Jul-2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Dec-2014 No. dwellings Value of building approvals ($m) Source: ABS. 8731.0 Dec 2014, Seasonally Adjusted. AIB Construction Outlook Feb 2015 14
Engineering Construction Pipeline And the amount of work in the pipeline increased in September but is much lower than at the same time last year. $70b Total value of engineering construction work yet to be done by subsector, Queensland 2009-2014 $60b $50b $40b Reduced investment in new assets $30b $20b $10b $0b Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Roads Bridges, railways, harbours Electricity Water Telecommunications Recreation Heavy industry (incl. mining) Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Source: ABS. 8762.0 Sept 2014, Original 15
Forecasts 16
Forecast - Residential Value of residential work done by subsector, Queensland 2009-2018 $12b $10b $8b $6b $4b $2b $0b 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 New houses Other new residential Alterations & additions Total residential Source: KPMG. 2014. Custom forecasts. 17
Forecast - Commercial $10b Value of commercial work done by subsector, Queensland 2009-2018 $8b $6b $4b $2b $0b 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Commercial Industrial Social/institutional Total commercial Source: KPMG. 2014. Custom forecasts. 18
Forecast Engineering Construction $8b Value of engineering construction work done by subsector, Queensland 2009-2018 $40b $6b $30b $4b $20b $2b $10b $0b 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Recreation Bridges, railways & harbours Electricity & pipelines Water & sewerage Telecommunications Roads $0b Total engineering (RHS) Source: KPMG. 2014. Custom forecasts. Heavy Industry and Mining (RHS) 19
Employment and training 20
Queensland: Construction Industry Employment Overall industry employment has continued to decline gradually 250,000 245,000 Total construction industry employment, Queensland 2011-2014 240,000 235,000 230,000 225,900 persons at Nov Q 2014 225,000 220,000 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 Feb Q 2011 May Q 2011 Aug Q 2011 Nov Q 2011 Feb Q 2012 May Q 2012 Aug Q 2012 Nov Q 2012 Feb Q 2013 May Q 2013 Aug Q 2013 Nov Q 2013 Feb Q 2014 May Q 2014 Aug Q 2014 Nov Q 2014 Source: ABS. 6291.0.55.003 Sept 2014, Yearly moving average. 21
Queensland: Training 22
Queensland: Training 23
Queensland: Training 24
Technological trends 25
Modular construction Robotics/3D Printing Pre-fab BIM/Visualisation Innovation changing skills Like past innovations of offsite kitchens, bathrooms and roof trusses, nail guns and floating slabs; modular, BIM, robotics and 3D printing will transform future skills
Risk of Robot Labour Architecture and Engineering http://qz.com/202312/is-your-job-at-risk-from-robot-labor-check-this-handy-interactive/
Risk of Robot Labour Construction & Extraction http://qz.com/202312/is-your-job-at-risk-from-robot-labor-check-this-handy-interactive/
Occupation/skills priorities 29
Priorities Immediate Outlook OCCUPATION Bricklayer; Stonemason Carpenter; Joiner; Carpenter and Joiner Civil Construction Worker - Labourer Skilled Civil Worker Bituminous Surfacing; Bridge Construction and Maintenance; Pipe Layer; Road Marker; Trenchless Technology; Road Construction and Maintenance; Timber Bridge Construction and Maintenance; Foundation Works Concreter Dogger; Rigger Electrician; Refrigeration and Air-conditioning Mechanic Fire Systems Technician Painter and Decorator Plant Operator Plumber (Mechanical Services) Plumber; Gas Fitter; Roof Plumber Scaffolder Trade assistant (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Communities) Solid Plasterer Steel Fixer Swimming Pool and Spa Technician Tiler; Roof Tiler Waterproofer Source: CSQ Submission to Ministerial Industry Commission, December 2014 30
Priorities 4-5 Year Outlook OCCUPATION Bricklayers and Stonemasons Railway Track and Other construction and mining labourers Crane, hoist and lift operators, earthmoving plant operators Building and plumbing labourers, Insulation and home improvement installers Architectural, building and surveying technicians, civil engineering technicians Source: CSQ Submission to Ministerial Industry Commission, December 2014 31
Priorities Beyond 5 years? Less workers? But perhaps more of: Building information modellers? Manufacturing workers? Robot programmers? Onsite assemblers? Flexibility in working onsite/offsite and physical/virtual? 32
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