Framework for Market Intelligence TTRA International Conference June 22, 2013
Who We Were Employees: 77 Primary Focus: Meetings and conventions Employees: 70 Primary Focus: Leisure tourism, neighborhood promotion, & festivals
Who We Are Sole tourism organization for Chicago Employees: 100 Primary Focus: Drive Regional, National, and International Overnight Business & Leisure Travel
For Clarity, Honesty and to Better Reflect Our Mission, Choose Chicago Market Research will Henceforth Be Known As The Triage Center
The 2020 Goals Increase annual visitation to 50 million from 2010 level of 39.4 million Book 2.3 million hotel room nights and 50 new groups annually Elevate Chicago to a top five international travel destination
The Strategy Regional Marketing Campaigns Winter 2012 incremental trips = 142,000 ROI = $165 Winter 2013 incremental trips = 208,000 ROI = $288 Capitalize on recent labor agreement for event production at McCormick Place Generate national media awareness Opened 9 International offices since 2011 China (2) /UK/Canada/Mexico/Japan/Benelux/Brazil/Germany Destination videos and website translated into 7 languages
Funding $13.8 Million $14.06 Million $17.8 Million $27.6 Million $31 Million 125% Increase 2010 2011 2012 2013
Now In the Game City Las Vegas Orlando New York City Chicago San Francisco
London
Chicago Visitation (Millions) +6.2% Source: D.K. Shifflet
Occupancy Rate Chicago Central Business District % 80 75 75.18% 75.16% 70 65 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Smith Travel Research
Average Daily Rate Chicago Central Business District $250 $200 +5.6% $177.28 $187.25 $150 $100 $50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Smith Travel Research
Who are Your Clients? Partners/Members Government Market Research Consultants Executive Management & Board Non-Partners Academics
The Framework for Actionable Market Intelligence Economic Analysis Market Performance Measurement Capacity Analysis Primary Research Forecasts Design & Communicate the Program
Economic Analysis Demographics Migration Flows Employment Trends National, Regional, Local Income Growth Housing Prices, Foreclosures Leading Industries Tap the free sources: Federal government (BEA/BLS ) Your bank/investment firm Federal Reserve
Market Performance Hotel Performance Metrics Quick Response Compression Analysis Domestic Visitation Regional Draw Markets Campaign ROI Travel Impact International Visitation International Profiling/Spending Fill in the gaps when you can Data Mining
Capacity Analysis Lead and Get it Right! In Construction New vs. Renovations Final Planning Planning Pre-Planning Airlift
Primary Market Research Visitor Center Visitor Profiling and Satisfaction Index Chicago Information Greeters (CIG s) Visitor Profiling Cultural Tourist profile Mexican Traveler profile U.K. Traveler profile Annual Meeting Survey Consultant Management SMARI Community Marketing (LGBT)
Why Forecast? Projections needed for: Short/Long term Business and Financial Planning Revenue Projections Marketing Investment Decisions It helps you understand how you link to the external environment and manage.. RISK!
Forecasting Approaches Consultant Forecasts PKF/STR In-House Demand Models Time series trend analysis Seasonally Adjusted Data Analysis Leading Indicators Approach Business Cycle Approach Bookings Capture Systems Hotel Network feedback
What We Forecast Domestic Visitation Market Share Models Econometric Models International Visitation National Market Share Models Country Share Models Hotel Performance Capacity Growth Convention Room Demand Tax Revenue Models Pre-recession perspective
A Neat Example $ 22.0 $ 21.0 $ 20.0 $ 19.0 $ 18.0 $ 17.0 $ 16.0 Hotel Operators Occupancy Tax Predicted Model of Fiscal Year Hotel Operators Occupancy Tax Drivers: Chicago ADR Illinois Downstate ADR Chicago Supply Illinois Downstate Supply Chicago GDP $ 15.0 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
Rules of Forecasting When Forecasting, Give a Number or a Date but never both Always Forecast Only the Year which is your year of retirement plus one Never Give your Name
Program Communication High Frequency Performance Reports You are the value added! Fundamental Trend Analysis Remove the Seasonality! Weather matters (at least in Chicago!) Who Can or Should See Your Forecasts? The Primary Source for Capacity Analysis Summarized Primary Research Communicate to your stakeholders Members Extranet Ask Them! Newsletters Workshops
Please come visit us in all 5 Chicago Seasons..Almost Winter..Winter..Still Winter..Road Construction..And It s Too Hot Thank You