Tankan Summary (September 17) 174th Short-Term Economic Survey of in Japan 1. Business Conditions October 2, 17 Number of Sample Ref.: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises Research and Statistics Department Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total Response rate (yen per US dollar) Bank of Japan All 4,343 6,344,687 99.4% FY 16 FY 17 1,74 1,29 2,3 99.3% 1H 2H 1H 2H 1,143 1,837 2,98 99.3% June 17 Survey 8.29 6.57 9.89 8.31 8.36 8.27 2,126 3,478 5,64 99.6% Sept. 17 Survey - - - 9.29 9.46 9.12 Financial institutions - - 195 99.% Responding Period: August 29 to September 29 Not to be released before 8:5 a.m. on Monday, October 2, 17 (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Manufacturing 17 15 22 5 19-3 12 11 17 5 13-4 7 6 3 8-2 Textiles 3 6 3 3-3 -11-19 -11-11 - -25-22 -2-25 -3 Lumber & Wood products 24 18 29 5 18-11 16 16 22 6-2 -6-1 5-1 Pulp & Paper 7-3 3 3-7 12 2-5 -17 5-17 -9-7 -8-1 Chemicals 16 9 27 11 18-9 17 11 21 4 16-5 12 8 18 6-8 Petroleum & Coal products 25 31 6 19-12 22 13 27 5 18-9 -6-9 -5 1-7 -2 Ceramics, Stone & Clay 24 9 22-2 16-6 11 13 21 15-6 7 7 6-1 11 5 Iron & Steel 16 19 12-4 14 2 6 22 19 13 24 5 19 23 3 11 32 2 Nonferrous metals 34 23-11 14-9 22 22 26 4 28 2 24 25 3 6 27-3 Food & Beverages 21 15 18-3 16-2 9 5 5-4 6 1 12 13 11-1 9-2 Processed metals 8-2 5-3 5 6 12 7 8-4 17 14-6 General-purpose machinery 29 29 35 6 33-2 19 25 25 6 23-2 16 12 23 7 13 - Production machinery 23 28 36 13 38 2 14 28 27 13 3 3 15 11 22 7 13-9 Business oriented machinery 15 25 3 15 3 14 12 22 8 13-9 9 14 17 8 18 1 Electrical machinery 16 23 27 11 26-1 13 13 22 9 15-7 1 2 9 8 12 3 Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc. -11-11 -14-3 14 7-7 9 2 2-7 16 14-2 11-3 Motor vehicles 16 11 18 2 14-4 18 16 23 5 18-5 19 14 3 11 22-8 Basic materials 17 9 21 4 14-7 12 14 2 14 3 4 8 5 5-3 Processing 17 18 23 6 21-2 12 11 18 6 13-5 9 7 14 5 11-3 Nonmanufacturing 23 18 23 19-4 18 12 19 1 14-5 7 2 8 1 4-4 Construction 48 4 48 35-13 31 34 3 22-12 16 7 17 1 9-8 Real estate 35 28 35 3-5 33 18 31-2 21-14 11 14 12-2 Goods rental & Leasing 17 15-2 18 3 21 15 23 2-3 18 14 2 16-4 Wholesaling 13 9 21 8 15-6 12 9 11-1 9-2 -4-2 -2 Retailing 11 8-2 13 5 7 4 7 7-9 -8-5 4-4 1 Transport & Postal activities 19 8 18-1 11-7 12 6 17 5-7 7 3 8 1 4-4 Communications 25 19 19-6 19 28 24 19-9 19 24 21 23-1 26 3 Information services 24 23 27 3-7 29 27 29 24-5 17 14 17 12-5 Electric & Gas utilities -3-3 3 6 5 2 21 11 22 1 17-5 17 13 18 1 12-6 Services for businesses 33 31 4 7 33-7 24 26 2-6 11 6 12 1 7-5 Services for individuals 35 25 35 3-5 19 13 16-3 11-5 3 1 7 4 3-4 Accommodations, Eating & Drinking services 13 11 6-7 7 1 5 15 5-5 4-5 -4-2 -2 All industries 16 23 3 19-4 16 11 18 2 13-5 7 4 9 2 6-3 All Notes: 1. Response rate = The number of enterprises that responded to the question on Business Conditions / The number of sample enterprises * Manufacturing 11 9 15 4 12-3 2. Actual result: Judgement at the time of the survey, : Judgement at the time of three months hence Nonmanufacturing 13 8 14 1-4 Changes in actual result = "Actual result of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the previous survey" All industries 12 8 15 3 11-4 Changes in forecast = " of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the current survey" 3. "Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc." indicates Transportation machinery excluding Motor vehicles. 1
1. Business Conditions (Continued) <Ref.> Percentage share of the number of respondents choosing each alternative June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Actual result Actual result Mediumsized Mediumsized (%, % points) Manufacturing 17 12 7 22 17 19 13 8 1. Favorable 22 22 24 27 26 26 22 21 2. Not so favorable 73 68 59 68 65 58 75 73 66 3. Unfavorable 5 17 5 9 16 3 7 13 Nonmanufacturing 23 18 7 23 19 8 19 14 4 1. Favorable 26 25 21 27 26 21 22 17 2. Not so favorable 71 68 65 69 67 66 75 74 7 3. Unfavorable 3 7 14 4 7 13 3 6 13 (Note) Business Conditions DI = Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable" 2. Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (% points) (% points) June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Actual Actual Actual Actual result result Changes Changes result result Changes Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products Manufacturing -6-6 -5 1-6 -1 Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products Manufacturing -18-19 -16 2-17 -1 and Services: Basic materials -9 - -8 1-7 1 and Services: Basic materials -25-24 -22 3-2 Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Processing -5-5 -3 2-4 -1 Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Processing -13-15 -11 2-13 -2 Nonmanufacturing -8-11 -8-9 -1 Nonmanufacturing -17-18 -16 1-18 -2 Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products: Manufacturing -2-1 2 Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products: Manufacturing -12-11 -8 4-9 -1 Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Basic materials -6-8 -3 3-4 -1 Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Basic materials -16-16 -12 4-12 Processing 1 3 3 2 2-1 Processing -9-8 -6 3-6 Changes Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise: Manufacturing 8 8 Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise: Manufacturing Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials 9 9 Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials 13 12-1 minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing 8 8 minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing 9 9 Wholesalers' Inventory Level: Manufacturing 7 6-1 Wholesalers' Inventory Level: Manufacturing 15 13-2 Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials 8-2 Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials 18-2 minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing 4 4 minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing Manufacturing -1-2 1-2 -2 Manufacturing -4-3 -2 2-1 1 Change in Output Prices: Basic materials 8 3 8 5-3 Change in Output Prices: Basic materials 1 3 5 4 7 2 Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing -5-5 -5-6 -1 Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing -7-7 -6 1-6 Nonmanufacturing 4 2 3-1 1-2 Nonmanufacturing -3-2 -3-2 1 Manufacturing 13 13 14 1 13-1 Manufacturing 26 31 28 2 31 3 Change in Input Prices: Basic materials 14 17 18 4 15-3 Change in Input Prices: Basic materials 25 31 3 5 33 3 Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing 12 11 12 12 Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing 25 3 26 1 29 3 Nonmanufacturing 12 14 12 15 3 Nonmanufacturing 18 23 19 1 24 5 2
3. Sales and Current Profits Sales FY16 FY17 1H FY16 2H FY16 1H FY17 2H FY17 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing -2.9-2.7.3-6.1.2-3.7.5 1.8.1 Domestic Sales -1.5-2.9. -4..9-4..1 2. -.1 Exports -6.1-2.2 1. -.7-1.5-3. 1.3 1.4.8 Nonmanufacturing -3.8-2.8.2-6.9 -.6-3.7.2 2..2 All industries -3.4-2.8.2-6.6 -.3-3.7.3 1.9.2 Manufacturing.1-3.4.6-1.2 1.3-3.4.3 3.4.8 Nonmanufacturing.9-2.4 -.1. 1.8-2.7 -.5 2.2.2 All industries.7-2.6. -.3 1.7-2.9 -.3 2.4.4 Manufacturing -.3-1.8. -1.9 1.2-3...6. Nonmanufacturing.8 -.8.6 -.3 1.9-2.1.4 -.4.8 All industries.6-1..5 -.7 1.7-2.3.3 -.2.6 Manufacturing -2. - 2.6.3-4.6.5-3.5.4 1.8.2 All Nonmanufacturing -1.2-2.1.2-3.3.7-3..1 1.3.4 All industries -1.5-2.2.3-3.7.7-3.1.2 1.4.3 (Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey. Current Profits FY16 FY17 1H FY16 2H FY16 1H FY17 2H FY17 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing -.5-4.7 8.3-25.8 33.1-23.1 13.8-8.9 3.4 Basic materials 8.1-7.1 5.5-21.4 46.8-34.8.4-12.4.7 Processing -3.9-3.7 9.7-27.6 27.7-18.2 15.5-7.3 4.6 Nonmanufacturing 5.7 - -1.6 1.2-2.6 16.4 - -.5 2. -2.7.2 All industries 2.8-1.3 4.5-13.7 24.3-9.2 7.2-5.8 1.7 Manufacturing.5 -.8 1.9-8. 8.6-4.9 5.9-2.6-1.4 Nonmanufacturing 9.2 - -3.6 2.4 9.9 8.7 - -3.8 5.5-3.4.2 All industries 6.4 - -2.3 2.2 3.7 8.6 - -1.2 5.6-3.1 -.3 Manufacturing 16.4 - -3..3.6 32.1-9.6 4.2-12.6-3.1 Nonmanufacturing 5.8 - -8.6 1. 7.3 4.6 - -7.6 1.1-9.5.9 All industries 8.3 - -7.2.8 5.6.7 - -3.4 2. -.3 -.2 Manufacturing 1.6-3.2 6.5-21.2 29.6-19.1 11.6-8.6 1.9 All Nonmanufacturing 6.4 - -3.7 1.3 1.5 11.4 - -2.7 2.4-4.7.4 All industries 4.4 - -1. 3.4-8.1 18.4-5.2 6. -6.3 1. 3
3. Sales and Current Profits (Continued) Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, % points) (%, % points) FY16 FY17 1H FY16 2H FY16 1H FY17 2H FY17 Changes () Changes Changes () Changes () Changes Manufacturing 7.33-7.47.55 6.52 8.6-7.75.91 7.22.23 Nonmanufacturing 5.87-5.62.5 6.35 5.44-6.9.11 5.18. All industries 6.47-6.37.25 6.42 6.51-6.76.43 6.1.9 Manufacturing 5.12-4.99.7 4.74 5.47-4.8.25 5.16 -.11 Nonmanufacturing 3.55-3.34.8 3.25 3.83-3.4.17 3.62. All industries 3.91-3.72.8 3.59 4. - 3.45.19 3.97 -.3 Manufacturing 4.6-4.38.1 4. 5.6-4.37.18 4.4 -.14 Nonmanufacturing 3.66-3.32.2 3.52 3.78-3.19.2 3.43. All industries 3.86-3.55.2 3.65 4.5-3.45.6 3.64 -.3 Manufacturing 6.48-6.52.38 5.79 7.12-6.66.67 6.39.11 All Nonmanufacturing 4.62-4.36.5 4.72 4.52-4.46. 4.26. All industries 5.21-5.4.15 5.6 5.34-5.16.28 4.93.3 Net Income FY16 FY17 1H FY16 2H FY16 1H FY17 2H FY17 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing 7.1-15. 8.8-19. 62.2-15.9 14.4 14.1 3.4 Basic materials 43.5-8.3 8.5-8.7 218.4-18.1 14.2-1. 2.5 Processing -4.9-18.3 9. -23. 28.5-14.9 14.5 22.2 3.8 Nonmanufacturing 23.9-6.1 2.2-7.3 9.7-5.7 3.4 6.6.8 All industries 15.2 -.4 5.4-13.1 83.1 -.4 8.4.3 2.1 Manufacturing.3-6.5 1.9-8.4 35.6-4.1 6.7 8.6-1.9 Nonmanufacturing 16.8 - -2.7 3. 15.6 17.9 - -5.5 4.2 -.3 2. All industries 14.8 -. 2.7 7.2 22.6 - -2.6 5. 2.3.8 Manufacturing 22.1-8.3 -.2 4. 43.4-21.1 7.4-2.7-7.2 Nonmanufacturing 1.4 - -1.6 1.8 8.1-4.6 - -9.6 -.7 6.6 4.1 All industries 6. -.9 1.2 7.1 5. - -2.3 1.5 4.1 1. Manufacturing 9.1-13.2 6.9-15.9 55.9-15.2 12.7 11.2 1.4 All Nonmanufacturing 16.3-2.6 2.2 -.7 43.2 -.2 2.6 5.2 1.9 All industries 13.2-6.9 4.2-7.3 48.2-6.2 6.7 7.7 1.7 4
4. Fixed Investment, etc. Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses* R&D Investment FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing 4.3-14.1-1.2 Manufacturing -.8-2.5. Nonmanufacturing -5.4-4..3 Nonmanufacturing.5-2.8 2.6 All industries -2.1-7.7 -.3 All industries.1-2.5.2 Manufacturing 6.3-13.2 2.1 Manufacturing 25.5-7.4 1.4 Nonmanufacturing -3.1-19.6 3.2 Nonmanufacturing 29.2-19. -2.3 All industries.2-17.2 2.8 All industries 25.9-8.9.8 Manufacturing -6.7 -.9 9.8 Manufacturing 12.2-2.5-1.9 Nonmanufacturing 16.3 - -19.9 7.6 Nonmanufacturing 38.3-26.4 6.8 All industries 8.8 - -14.1 8.3 All industries 14.1-4.6-1.1 Manufacturing 2.6-11.7.9 Manufacturing.3-2.7. All Nonmanufacturing -.7 -.8 2.1 All Nonmanufacturing 12. - 4.4 2.4 All industries.4-4.6 1.7 All industries 1.3-2.9.2 * Excludes software and R&D investment. Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Software Investment Purchasing Expenses FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing -5.3-4.5 -.5 Manufacturing.7-7.9 -.6 Nonmanufacturing 8.8-5.6.7 Nonmanufacturing -3.1-7.1.1 All industries 3.7-5.3.3 All industries -1. - 7.5 -.3 Manufacturing -5.4-35.4.3 Manufacturing 8.8-14. 1.7 Nonmanufacturing -9.5-9.5 3.1 Nonmanufacturing -7.1-22.9 2.8 All industries -8.9-13.4 2.6 All industries -1. - 19.1 2.4 Manufacturing -2. - 22.9-5.8 Manufacturing -7.4-4.7 6.9 Nonmanufacturing 11.3-22.3 3.3 Nonmanufacturing 18.6 - -14. 7.5 All industries 7.3-22.4.6 All industries 8.7 - -7.9 7.3 Manufacturing -5.1-7.9 -.9 Manufacturing.6-8.2.3 All Nonmanufacturing 5.6-7.5 1.3 All Nonmanufacturing. - 5.2 1.7 All industries 2.1-7.6.6 All industries.3-6.7 1. Production Capacity (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points) Land Purchasing Expenses June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey FY16 FY17 Actual Actual Revision rate () Revision rate result result Changes Changes Manufacturing 44.7 - -43.9 7.1 Manufacturing -1 1-1 1 Nonmanufacturing -8.2 - -25.8 7.1 Nonmanufacturing -1-2 -2-1 -3-1 All industries -4.6 - -27.6 7.1 All industries -1-1 -1-1 Manufacturing 19.3 - -28.9 15.1 Manufacturing 1-1 -2-3 -4-2 Nonmanufacturing 27. - -12.4 6.3 Nonmanufacturing -4-4 -4-4 All industries 25.9 - -14.8 7.3 All industries -2-3 -3-1 -4-1 Manufacturing 53.9 - -38.3 26.4 Manufacturing -1-4 -3-2 -5-2 Nonmanufacturing -1.1 - -43.2 5.6 Nonmanufacturing -4-6 -5-1 -7-2 All industries 5.4 - -42.3 9. All industries -3-5 -3-7 -4 Manufacturing 42.6 - -38.8 16.2 Manufacturing -2-2 -2-3 -1 All Nonmanufacturing -1.6 - -28.7 6.6 All Nonmanufacturing -4-5 -4-6 -2 All industries 2.6 - -3. 7.6 All industries -2-3 -3-1 -4-1 5
5. Fixed Investment of Financial institutions 6. Employment Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses of Financial institutions* Employment Conditions (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points) FY16 FY17 June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Revision rate () Revision rate Actual result Actual result Financial institutions -4.1-22.3 2.1 Changes Changes Banks -14.2-29. 2.5 Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses 23.7 - -5.6-1.1 Manufacturing - -11-11 -1-12 -1 Financial products transaction dealers 44.8 - -38.7 3. Nonmanufacturing -21-23 -24-3 -24 Insurance companies -8.9-5.3 4.7 All industries -16-18 -18-2 -18 Non-deposit money corporations 5.7-4.2-3.1 Manufacturing -17 - -22-5 -25-3 (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions.3-5.1 1.7 Nonmanufacturing -31-34 -34-3 -37-3 Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions -.9-1.6 2.1 All industries -25-29 -3-5 -33-3 * Excludes software and R&D investment. Manufacturing -17-24 -23-6 -27-4 Nonmanufacturing -33-39 -37-4 -42-5 Software Investment of Financial institutions All industries -27-33 -32-5 -36-4 Financial institutions 8.8-2.7. Manufacturing -16 - - -4-23 -3 Banks 6.9 - -.5 1. All Nonmanufacturing -3-35 -34-4 -37-3 Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses 14.3 -.1 -.7 All industries -25-29 -28-3 -31-3 Financial products transaction dealers -7.2-16.1-2.2 Insurance companies 19.5-23.3 -.6 Non-deposit money corporations 18.6-17.9 -.5 Number of New Graduates Hired (All industries) (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions 3.9-6.3.4 (Surveyed only in June and December) Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions 6.7-5.8.8 FY16 FY17 FY18 Revision rate () Revision rate () Revision rate - - - - - - Land Purchasing Expenses of Financial institutions - - - - - - Financial institutions -26.1-22.6 6.7 - - - - - - Banks 58.2 - -21.9 12.1 All - - - - - - Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses -27.4 - -41.9 41.8 All & Financial institutions - - - - - - Financial products transaction dealers - - -. - Manufacturing - - - - - - Insurance companies -46.1-91.1 1. Nonmanufacturing - - - - - - Non-deposit money corporations -. - - - Financial institutions - - - - - - (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions 2.1 - -29.3 7.6 Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions -2.1 - -27.9 6.6 Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses of Financial institutions Financial institutions 3.4-11..8 Banks -2.8-5. 1.6 Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses 26.1 - -2.2-2. Financial products transaction dealers 1. - 3.6-1.5 Insurance companies 7.5-33.3 2.2 Non-deposit money corporations 11.9-11.1-1.7 (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions.4-6.9 1. Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions.2-5.6 1.6 6
7. Corporate Finance 8. Business Conditions of Financial institutions Financial Position (All industries) Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight," % points) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes 25 24-1 Banks 3 1 6 3 1-5 24 24 Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses 2 2 2 11 11 Financial products transaction dealers 23 23-13 13 3 All 17 17 Insurance companies 37 34 29-8 21-8 Manufacturing 16 16 Non-deposit money corporations 23 15 25 2 25 Nonmanufacturing 18 18 Financial institutions 13 11 12-1 9-3 Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) Production Capacity (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe," % points) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points) June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes 27 26-1 Banks 28 28 Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses -2 3 3-3 21 21 Financial products transaction dealers - -7-7 3-7 All 24 23-1 Insurance companies -5-8 -5-5 Manufacturing 23 23 Non-deposit money corporations 8 8 8 Nonmanufacturing 24 24 Financial institutions -2-3 -1 1-1 Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) Employment Conditions (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall," % points) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points) June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes Changes -3 3-2 1 2 4 Banks -1-3 1-6 -6-6 2-5 1 1 6 Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses -11-11 -19-8 -17 2-9 -8 1-1 7 Financial products transaction dealers - - -24-4 -23 1 All -7 1-6 1 1 7 Insurance companies -13 - -13-7 6 Manufacturing -6 1-5 1 5 Non-deposit money corporations -8-8 -8-8 Nonmanufacturing -8 1-7 1 7 Financial institutions -8-9 - -2-11 -1 Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) <Based on CP-Issuing > (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe," % points) June 17 Survey Sept. 17 Survey Actual result Actual result Changes 46 44-2 7
(Reference Charts) Notes: 1. Unless otherwise noted, shaded areas indicate periods of recession (according to the Cabinet Office). 2. There is a discontinuity between the figures up to the December 3 survey and those from the March 4 survey (as for the December 3 survey, the results of preliminary survey based on "Capital" are also shown). 3. The "Principal " survey was discontinued after the December 3 survey. [Business Conditions] Peaks and Bottoms of Business Conditions (from May 1974) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) "Favorable" "Unfavorable" "Favorable" "Unfavorable" Manufacturing 7 6 5 4 3 - - -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Nonmanufacturing 7 6 (Data prior to Feb. 1983 are those of Principal ) 5 4 3 - - -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Manufacturing -57-53 -51 (75/5) (75/2,5) (75/5) -3 - -1-21 -4-23 (76/8, 11) (77/11) (76/8) (78/2) (76/8) (77/11, 78/2) 37-28 25-31 19-32 (79/8) (83/2) (79/8) (83/2) (79/8) (83/2) 22-24 8-25 -3 (84/11, 85/2) (86/11) (85/2) (87/2) (84/8, 11) (86/8, 11) 53-43 42-45 36-48 (89/5) (93/11, 94/2) (89/8) (94/2) (89/5,8) (94/2) 13-51 5-53 -7-6 (97/6) (98/12) (97/3, 6) (98/12) (97/6) (98/12) -38 2-48 -16-51 (/9, 12) (1/12, 2/3) (/12) (1/12) (/12) (2/3) 26-58 17-57 -57 (4/9) (9/3) (6/12) (9/3) (6/12) (9/3,6) 8-12 4-14 -8-19 (/9) (12/12) (/9) (13/3) (11/12) (13/3) Sept. 17 Survey Actual result 22 17 19 13 8 Peaks and Bottoms of Business Conditions (from May 1983 ) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) Nonmanufacturing -6-15 -14 (83/5) (83/8) (83/8, 11) 12 8 4-6 -3-11 (85/5) (86/2, 8, 11, 87/2) (85/5) (87/2) (84/11) (86/8) 57-35 43-38 34-25 (9/8) (94/2) (9/2) (94/2) (89/5, 9/8) (93/11) 1-41 -4-47 -6-44 (96/11) (98/12) (96/5) (98/9) (96/5, 11) (98/9) -9-22 -19-32 -23-42 (/9) (1/12, 2/3) (/12) (2/3) (/12) (2/3) 22-31 8-37 -6-44 (6/12, 7/3, 6) (9/3) (7/6) (9/3) (6/6, 12, 7/3) (9/6) 8 4 3-1 -9-11 (12/6, 9) (12/12) (12/6) (12/12) (12/6, 9) (12/12) Sept. 17 Survey Actual result 23 19 8 19 14 4 8
[Supply and Demand Conditions and Prices ( Manufacturing )] "Excess demand" "Excess supply" - - -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 Peaks and Bottoms of Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions for Products and Services for Products and Services (from May 1974) (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply," % points ) Manufacturing Peak Bottom 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-75 (75/2) -42-57 (76/8) (77/11) -12-57 (8/5) (83/2) -27-46 (84/8, 11) (87/2) 2-5 (9/8) (93/11, 94/2) -16-54 (97/6) (98/12) -18-48 (/9) (1/12) -6-59 (6/9, 12) (9/3) -14-25 (11/9) (12/12) Sept. 17 Survey Actual result -5-6 "Rise" "Fall" Output prices 8 Input prices 6 4 - -4 Prices Peaks and Bottoms of Prices (from May 1974 ) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall," % points) Manufacturing Output Prices Input Prices Peak Bottom Peak Bottom -13 8 (75/2, 8) (75/8) 13-19 34-16 (76/8) (78/11) (76/8) (78/8) 39-23 77 4 (8/5) (83/2) (8/5) (82/2) -4-42 14-35 (84/2) (86/8, 11) (82/11) (86/8, 11) 5-29 31-19 (9/11) (93/11, 94/5) (9/11) (93/11) -16-38 9-15 (97/6) (98/12) (97/3) (98/12, 99/3) -18-38 7-16 (/9) (2/3) (/12) (1/12) 11-25 59-16 (8/9) (9/3) (8/6) (9/3) -8-18 28-1 (11/6) (12/12) (11/6) (12/12) -6 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 9 Sept. 17 Survey Output Prices Input Prices Actual result 14-2 13
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] 8. (%) 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. Manufacturing Peaks and Bottoms of Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (from 1974) (%) Manufacturing 1.55 -.16 1.23 (FY75) (FY75) (FY75) 4.84 3.59 4.12 2.78 3.79 1.95 (FY79) (FY81) (FY79) (FY82) (FY79) (FY82) 4.76 3.34 3.4 2.99 2.52 2.29 (FY84) (FY86) (FY84) (FY85) (FY84) (FY86) 5.75 2.41 5.21 2.19 4.5 1.62 (FY89) (FY93) (FY89) (FY93) (FY89) (FY93) 4.18 3.7 3. 2.7 2.59 1.4 (FY96) (FY98) (FY96) (FY97) (FY96) (FY98) 4.61 3. 4.7 3.24 3. 1.72 (FY) (FY1) (FY) (FY1) (FY) (FY1) 6.76 2.7 5.7 2.3 3.9 1.72 (FY6) (FY8) (FY6) (FY8) (FY6) (FY8) -1. 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 FY (%) 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Nonmanufacturing (Data prior to FY1981 are those of Principal excluding Electric & Gas utilities) () Sept. 17 Survey FY16 7.33 733 5.12 512 4.6 46 FY17 () 7.47 4.99 4.38 Peaks and Bottoms of Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (from 1982) (%) Nonmanufacturing 1.41 1.6 2.17 (FY82) (FY82) (FY82) 1.67 1.57 2.44 2.35 (FY83) (FY84) (FY83) (FY84) 2.38 1.62 2.16 1.6 3.75 2.11 (FY88) (FY94) (FY88) (FY93) (FY89) (FY93) 1.94 1.85 1.52 1.25 2.72 1.71 (FY95,96) (FY97) (FY96) (FY97,98) (FY96) (FY98) 2.66 2.54 2.33 2.32 (FY) (FY1) (FY) (FY1) 4.29 3.3 2.66 1.84 2.48 1.83 (FY6) (FY8) (FY5,6) (FY8) (FY6) (FY8). FY 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 () Sept. 17 Survey FY16 5.87 3.55 3.66 FY17 () 562 5.62 334 3.34 332 3.32
[Developments of Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses] (1) 3. Excludes software and R&D investment. Notes: 1. The graphs indicate the revision pattern of fixed investment. The horizontal axis represents the point of time when the survey is conducted for each fiscal year. Namely, the first survey for each year (March survey) is on the left, and the last survey (June survey of the following year; actual result) is on the right. The vertical axis represents the year-to-year percent change. 2. There is a discontinuity in the data in December 14 due to the regular revision of the sample enterprises. Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries 25 25 25 15 15 15 5 5 5-5 Average of historical data (FY to FY16) -5 Average of historical data (FY to FY16) -5 Average of historical data (FY to FY16) - FY14 - FY14 - FY14 FY15 FY15 FY15-15 FY16-15 FY16-15 FY16 FY17 FY17 FY17 - March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result - March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result - March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result 11
(2) Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries 3 Average of historical data (FY to FY16) 25 FY14 FY15 15 FY16 FY17 5-5 - -15 - -25-3 -35 3 Average of historical data (FY to FY16) 25 FY14 FY15 15 FY16 FY17 5-5 - -15 - -25-3 -35 3 Average of historical data (FY to FY16) 25 FY14 FY15 15 FY16 FY17 5-5 - -15 - -25-3 -35-4 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result -4 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result -4 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result 12
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] Peaks and Bottoms of Production Capacity (from May 1977) "Excessive" "Insufficient" 7 6 5 4 3 - - -3-4 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 [Employment Conditions (All industries)] "Excessive" "Insufficient" - - -3-4 -5-6 6 5 4 3 (Data prior to Feb. 1983 are those of Principal ) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) -7 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points) Manufacturing 39 3 27-6 16-7 (78/2) (8/5) (78/2) (8/5) (78/2) (8/5) 29 8 24 2 14-2 (83/2) (85/2,5) (83/2) (84/8,85/2) (83/2) (84/5) 24-12 -16 17-13 (86/11) (9/11) (86/11,87/2) (91/2) (87/2) (9/11,91/2) 32 6 33 8 25 5 (94/2) (97/9) (94/2) (97/9) (94/2) (97/3) 3 16 33 12 29 16 (99/6) (/9) (99/3) (/12) (99/6) (/12) 33-3 33-4 29 (2/3) (7/6) (1/12,2/3) (7/12) (1/12,2/3) (6/12,7/3) 39 9 35 9 38 (9/3) (11/9,12) (9/3,6) (11/9) (9/6) (11/12) 14 15 15 (12/12) (12/12,13/3) (12/12,13/3) Sept. 17 Survey Actual result -1-2 -3-4 -5 Peaks and Bottoms of Employment Conditions (from May 1986) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points) All industries 17-4 12-5 -47 (87/2,5) (91/2) (87/5) (91/2) (87/5) (9/11,91/2) 29 3-4 (94/2) (97/9) (94/2,5,8) (97/3) (94/5,95/8) (97/3) 32 19 24 6 21 9 (99/3,6) (1/3) (98/12) (/12) (99/3,6) (/12) 28-13 18-12 - (1/12) (7/3,12) (1/12) (7/3) (1/12,2/3) (6/12,7/3) 3 22 23 (9/3,6) (12/3,6) (9/6) (12/3) (9/6) (12/3) 4 1 1 (12/12) (12/6,9) (12/6) Sept. 17 Survey Actual result -18-3 -32-18 -33-36 13
[Corporate Finance (All industries)] Financial Position "Easy" "Tight" 5 4 3 - - -3-4 -5-6 -7 (Data prior to Feb. 1983 are those of Principal ) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) -8 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Peaks and Bottoms of Financial Position (from May 1983 ) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight," % points) All industries 33-6 -17 13-25 (88/5) (98/12) (89/8) (98/12) (89/5) (98/9,12) Sept. 17 Survey Actual result 24 24 11 Lending Attitude of Financial institutions "Accommodative" "Severe" 6 5 4 3 - - -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 -9 - (Data prior to Feb. 1983 are those of Principal ) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Peaks and Bottoms of Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (from May 1983) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe," % points) All industries 49-35 4-21 32-22 (84/11,85/2) (91/2) (87/5) (98/12) (88/8,89/2) (98/12) Sept. 17 Survey Actual result 26 28 21 14