The Role For Nuclear In A UK Low Carbon Economy Large Reactors and Small Modular Reactors Lecture For The Energy Institute - 21 st June 2016 Mike Middleton Strategy Manager For Nuclear at the Energy Technologies Institute 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This 2016 information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Presentation Structure Introduction to the ETI The Energy Technologies Institute - what do we do? Nuclear in a UK low carbon 2050 energy system Large Nuclear deployment constraints Finding a UK niche for small nuclear ETI s recent projects and analysis Nuclear Insights October 2015 Power Plant Siting Study Alternative Nuclear Technologies Study ESME Sensitivity Analysis For Nuclear Current work on preparing to deploy a first SMR in the UK Siting options for the first SMRs Engineering and cost estimation studies related to CHP and different cooling systems Enabling activities in the first 5 years of a programme to deploy the first SMR in the UK
Introduction to the ETI organisation The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government ETI members Delivering... Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy Shared risk ETI programme associate
What does the ETI do? System level strategic planning Technology development & demonstration Delivering knowledge & innovation
Typical ESME Outputs Energy System Modelling Environment
Net UK CO 2 Emissions Typical ETI Transition Scenario Mt CO 2 /year 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 2010 (Historic) 2020 2030 2040 2050 International Aviation & Shipping Transport Sector Buildings Sector Power Sector Industry Sector Biocredits Process & other CO2 Notes: Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors Biocredits includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS. -200 DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4
Installed Electrical Generation Capacity Typical Scenario Without CCS Delay GW 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4 2010 (Historic) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Geothermal Plant Wave Power Tidal Stream Hydro Power Micro Solar PV Large Scale Ground Mounted Solar PV Onshore Wind Offshore Wind H2 Turbine Anaerobic Digestion CHP Plant Energy from Waste IGCC Biomass with CCS Biomass Fired Generation Nuclear CCGT with CCS CCGT IGCC Coal with CCS PC Coal Gas Macro CHP Oil Fired Generation Interconnectors Notes: Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW) Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup
UK Constraints In The Deployment Of Nuclear Capability & Capacity To Expand Programme Programme Delivery Experience Sites Optimum Contribution In The Mix Are there suitable and sufficient sites for nuclear deployment or will this become an additional constraint? Nuclear capacity in the 2050 energy system
Competition For Sites? Potential For Competition For Sites Between Nuclear and New Thermal Plants With CCS CO 2 disposal sites in Irish and North Seas CO 2 storage and transport infrastructure expected to be located on the coast nearer the disposal sites New thermal plant requires CCS connection and access to suitable and sufficient cooling water Installed Capacity 16 GW Site Capacity 40 GW? 75 GW? Note: the policy of the Scottish Government is not to support the deployment of new nuclear but to focus on renewables instead Potential coastal locations to access CCS transport and disposal infrastructure
Can Small Nuclear Build A Niche Within The UK Energy System? For SMRs to be deployed in UK: technology development to be completed range of approvals and consents to be secured sufficient public acceptance of technology deployment at expected locations against either knowledge or ignorance of alternatives deployment economically attractive to o reactor vendors o utilities and investors o consumers & taxpayers Small Nuclear Large Nuclear FID Final Investment Decision Realistic objective for SMRs to be economically attractive to all stakeholders
Niche For Small Nuclear In The UK? Single Revenue Stream Multiple Revenue Streams Containment structure 1. Baseload Electricity Containment structure 1. Baseload Electricity 2. Variable Electricity To Aid Grid Balancing Control rods Steam Generator Generator Control rods Steam Generator Generator Turbine Turbine Reactor vessel Condenser Waste Heat Rejected To The Environment Reactor vessel Condenser 3. Heat Recovery To Energise District Heating Systems
Decarbonising Heat Is Important Net UK CO 2 Emissions Mt CO 2 /year 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 2010 (Historic) 2020 2030 2040 2050 International Aviation & Shipping Transport Sector Buildings Sector Power Sector Industry Sector Biocredits Process & other CO2 Notes: Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors Biocredits includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS. -200 DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4
Decarbonising Heat Is Challenging Heat demand variability in 2010 Unattractive to electrify it all 250 200 Heat Electricity Design point for a GB heat delivery system Heat / Electricity (GW) 150 100 50 Heat demand Electricity demand Design point for a GB electricity delivery system 0 Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10 GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic buildings R. Sansom, Imperial College
ETI Projects Delivered Power Plant Siting Study Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015 Delivered by Atkins for ETI following competitive open procurement process System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies Develop a high level functional requirement specification for a black box power plant for baseload electricity heat to energise district heating systems, and further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015 Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following competitive open procurement process Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to determine attractiveness of such a black box power plant to the UK low carbon energy system
So What Have We Learned? Power Plant Siting Study System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies ETI ESME Scenario and Sensitivity Studies For Nuclear
Siting Data Applied In ESME Capacity constraints applied in ESME
Future Heat Networks Almost 50 GB urban conurbations with sufficient heat load to support SMR energised heat networks Would theoretically require 22 GWe CHP SMR capacity
Distribution Of SMR Site Capacity SMR site capacity from the Power Plant Siting Study - Further potential locations likely to be found; the limit has not been explored SMR Capacity (GWe) By Cooling Water Source SMR Capacity (GWe) By Regional Location To Meet Demand SMR Capacity (GWe) By Distance From Potential District Heating Network
Cost Reduction Model - Factory & Learner Target CAPEX for a first fleet of SMRs providing baseload electricity is challenging
Target CAPEX: CHP SMR Target CAPEX more achievable for a first fleet of SMRs as CHP Plants
Updated ESME Baseline Capacity with 35 GWe Large Gen III+ and without SMRs
Updated ESME Baseline Capacity with 35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available SMR deployment capacity influenced by: Speed to first UK SMR operations Capital cost ( /kwe) 2050 Nuclear Capacity 1 GWe legacy (SZB) 35 GWe Gen III+ 16 GWe CHP SMRs
Requirement For SMR Flexible Power Delivery Reduction in SMR summer overnight power generation in this model run Flexibility is likely to be important to be able to modulate power to help balance the grid The flexibility here is diurnal, within a seasonal pattern Remember also the impact from intermittent renewables and associated peak generation
ESME Analysis Results For Nuclear In UK Large reactors optimal here Baseload Flexible Extra-flex Electricity only SMR power plant Baseload power (continuous full power operation between outages) Operated with daily shaped power profile when required to help balance the grid (Slightly) reduced baseload power with extra storage & surge capacity Combined Heat & Power (CHP) plant As above but with heat As above but with heat As above but with heat SMRs optimal here
Conclusions from published ETI insights http://www.eti.co.uk/the-role-for-nuclear-within-a-low-carbon-energy-system/
UK capability to support SMR deployment Launch of SMR competition by UK Government: Established Nuclear R&D in Academia and NNL UK Nuclear Industry Heritage Stable Market & Regulatory Environment Potential SMR Support From UK Government SMR Development Capability Expressions of interest until 6 th May Phase 1 dialogue late May until autumn 2016
Less than 10 years to prepare to deploy a UK Small Modular Reactor Generic Design Assessment STRAIGHT AHEAD FOR SMR DEPLOYMENT
Further ETI Projects Relevant To UK SMRs What is the range of locations suitable for early SMR deployment and is there an obvious front runner for a First Of A Kind (FOAK) SMR site? Power Plant Siting Study Phase 3 What are the design, cost and operational implications of committing to a plant which is CHP ready when built? What are the potential cooling system choices and economic impacts if unconstrained access to cooling water becomes more difficult? System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies Phase 3 What are the enabling activities in the first five years of an SMR programme necessary to support potential operations of a first UK SMR by 2030? SMR Deployment Enablers Project
Exploiting The Economies Of Multiples UK GDA and Coping With Variants Standardise To Exploit Economies of Multiples Direct Cooling Reactor Balance of Plant Ultimate Heat Sink Turbine Hall Cooling System Options Evaporative Cooling Air Cooled Condensers Heat Offtake Options Fin Fan Cooling Process Heat Desalination District Heating Options to Support Local Market and Deployment Scope of Design To Be Assessed Through Generic Design Assessment
Scope: SMR Deployment Enablers Work In Progress Development of scope for first 5 years of a UK SMR programme Integrated schedule for first 5 years, which could support ops by 2030 Identify necessary capability development of SMR developer/operator Key Assumptions: Vendor and developer/operator have already been identified at start Developer/operator is new to the UK; UK capability generation required The UK FOAK site is not currently included in NPS EN6 Context compared with the UK Giga watt reactor new build programme: Faster programme to deployment compared with Giga watt reactors UK Government policy for SMRs still being developed Proposition not yet commercially proven to potential investors
Approach To Delivering The SMR Deployment Enablers Project Work Breakdown Structure One Page Scope Description Per Element Integrated Schedule 2020 2025 2030 Focus On First 5 Years
Conclusions from published ETI insights (1) More in summer 2016 preparing to deploy http://www.eti.co.uk/the-role-for-nuclear-within-a-low-carbon-energy-system/
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Installed Electrical Generation Capacity Typical Scenario Without CCS Delay GW 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4 2010 (Historic) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Geothermal Plant Wave Power Tidal Stream Hydro Power Micro Solar PV Large Scale Ground Mounted Solar PV Onshore Wind Offshore Wind H2 Turbine Anaerobic Digestion CHP Plant Energy from Waste IGCC Biomass with CCS Biomass Fired Generation Nuclear CCGT with CCS CCGT IGCC Coal with CCS PC Coal Gas Macro CHP Oil Fired Generation Interconnectors Notes: Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW) Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup
Updated ESME Baseline Capacity with 35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available SMR deployment capacity influenced by: Speed to first UK SMR operations Capital cost ( /kwe) 2050 Nuclear Capacity 1 GWe legacy (SZB) 35 GWe Gen III+ 16 GWe CHP SMRs