Regional Update: News From the Front Tom Eckman January 24, 2007
What You re About To Hear A Short History What We ve Accomplished in the past 25 years Some Current Events How We re Doing on the 5 th Plan s s Targets The Road Ahead Are We In for Another Mister Toad s s Wild Ride? slide 2
PNW Energy Efficiency Achievements 1978 2005 Average Megawatts 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over 3000 amw of Savings. 500 0 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 BPA and Utility Programs Alliance Programs State Codes Federal Standards slide 3
Average Megawatts Energy Efficiency Resources Significantly Reduced Projected PNW Electricity Sales 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 Medium High Forecast Medium Low Medium High Minus Actual 16,000 14,000 slide 4 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40% of PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth Between 1980-2003 39% 61% Generation slide 5
$100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 slide 6 Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A BARGAIN! Levelized Cost of Efficiency Acquisitions Wholesale Market Price Nov-96 May-97 Nov-97 May-98 Nov-98 May-99 Nov-99 May-00 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 May-96 Wholesale Electricity Price (2000$/MWH)
Regional Utility Acquisitions Have Also Helped Balance Loads & Resources Creating Mr. Toad s s Wild Ride for the PNW s s Energy Efficiency Industry Acquisitions (amw) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Response to NW Recession Response to Restructuring Discussions Response to West Coast Energy Crisis Short Term Memory Loss? slide 7 0 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
So What s s 3100 amw? It s s enough electricity to serve the entire state of Idaho and all of Western Montana It s s enough electricity to meet nearly 60% of Oregon total electricity use It saved the region s s consumers more than $1.25 billion in 2004 It lowered 2004 PNW carbon emissions by an estimated 13 million tons. slide 8
With All We ve Accomplish You Might Ask Yourself IS THAT AS GOOD AS IT GETS? slide 9
5 th Plan Relies on and Renewable Resources to Meet Load Growth* 5000 Cumulative Capacity (MW)* 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Coal (ICG) (MW) CCGTurbine (MW) SCGTurbine (MW) DR (MW) Wind (MW) (amw) 0 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 *Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) will change resource development schedule and amounts
Accelerating Development Reduces Cost & Risk $40 $38 $36 NPV (billion 2004$) $34 $32 $30 $28 $26 $24 $22 $20 Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo NPV System Cost NPV System Risk slide 11
Accelerating Reduces Carbon Dioxide Emissions 140 Cumulative Emissions (Tons) 120 100 80 60 40 20 slide 12 0 Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo
70 Meeting 5 th Plan s s Targets Reduces Forecast PNW Power System CO2 Emissions in 2025 by Nearly 20% 2025 CO2 Emissions (tons) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 slide 13 With 5th Plan's Without 5th Plan's
Are We Achieving the 5 th Plans Near-Term Targets? (2005-2009) 2009) = 700 amw 160 Residential - Lost Opportunity 140 Resource (amw) 120 100 80 60 40 Commercial - Lost Opportunity Irrigated Agriculture - Non Lost Opportunity Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity Residential - Non Lost Opportunity 20 Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 slide 14
s s Regional Technical Forum Is Surveying Utility Progress on Not All Returns Have Been Counted 62 Utilities 88% of Regional Load slide 15
Early Returns Show We re Close on the Savings Savings (amw) 150 125 100 75 50 25 2005 Target 2006 Target Alliance Programs (Utility and Bonneville Funded) Bonneville Funded Utility Funded slide 16 0 Savings (amw) Savings (amw)
Appears to Be Lower Cost... At Least To Utilities Utility Expenditure (Million 2000$) slide 17 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $152* 5 th Plan Estimate of Utility Cost of for share of Target: $180 to $225 million May Hit savings targets with lower than expected cost No data yet on levelized cost to compare to wholesale power costs Equivalent to 1.75% of Regional Retail Revenues
2005 Cost Range $4.50 slide 18 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Utility Cost of Continue to Decrease 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 First Year Cost/aMW (million 2000$)
Are Individual Utilities Making Their Targets? slide 19
Caveats on Utility Targets Targets are based share of regional load, hence assume all utilities look like the region NOT SO! potential varies due to customer mix, gas/electric market share, load growth,etc. slide 20 Utility IRPs will differ from Plan Lumpy-factor: Annual program volume varies Still, many utilities want to know their share of the regional conservation targets
2005 Findings by Utility 16 Largest Utilities or 85% of Regional Loads Four utilities far exceed targets 15 to 35% above share of regional target Four utilities within 10% of target Eight utilities fell short Seven achieved less than half of their share of regional target slide 21
2005 Results 16 Largest Utilities 85% of Regional Loads 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Energy Trust PSE EWEB Avista PacifiCorp - WA Benton PUD SCL Snohomish PUD NorthWestern(W MT) PacifiCorp - ID IPC Chelan PUD Grant PUD Cowlitz PUD Clark PUD Tacoma Power slide 22 Savings Relative to 5th Plan Target
2006 Preliminary Results 16 Largest Utilities 85% of Regional Loads 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% slide 23 0% PacifiCorp - WA PSE EWEB Energy Trust Snohomish PUD SCL Avista IPC NorthWestern(W MT) PacifiCorp - ID Grant PUD Benton PUD Chelan PUD Cowlitz PUD Clark PUD Tacoma Power Savings Relative to 5th Plan Target
Average 2005-06 06 Preliminary Preliminary Results 16 Largest Utilities 85% of Regional Loads 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% slide 24 0% Energy Trust PacifiCorp - WA PSE EWEB Avista SCL Snohomish PUD Benton PUD NorthWestern(W MT) IPC Grant PUD Chelan PUD Cowlitz PUD PacifiCorp - ID Clark PUD Tacoma Power Savings Relative to 5th Plan Target
Bonneville Achieved It s 2002-2006 2006 Targets Annual Accomplishments (amw) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 BPA's Original FY02-FY06 Rate Period Target BPA's Revised FY02-FY06 Target (5th Plan) BPA's Actual Achievements BPA's Achievements (Adjusted for carry over) slide 25
However, BPA Has Exhausted Its Surplus 70 60 FY07 Achievements Must Be Nearly 50% Above FY06 Savings (amw) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 slide 26
With Bonneville s Carry Over The Region Exceeds the 5 th Plan 2005-2006 Targets Savings (amw) 150 125 100 75 50 25 2005 Target 2006 Target Alliance Programs (Utility and Bonneville Funded) Bonneville (Carry Over) Bonneville Utility slide 27 0 2005 Preliminary Projected 2006
The Road Ahead Is this the Renaissance? slide 28
The Road Ahead A Brighter Future @ Lower Wattage Over 7 million CFLs sold in 2005 PNW has 16% of all US installs State & Federal standards for 17 appliances Help hit targets beginning 2008 BPA has several new regional initiatives underway slide 29 Commercial & Industrial program participation is up
The Road Ahead Utilities Appear to Be Ramping Up PSE is developing a green utility strategy Avista has increased its annual efficiency goal by 20% -- and management has asked staff to squeeze out more efficiency company wide Idaho Power expects to nearly double its efficiency expenditures next year PGE has initiated discussions that could lead to an increase in Energy Trust funding slide 30
I-937 Passed slide 31
Now It Must Be Implemented slide 32
I-937 Failed In Most Counties Served by Public Utilities Who Do Not Appear to Be Achieving the 5 th Plan s Targets slide 33 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% I-937 Failed in the Counties Served by these Utilities Percent of 5th Plan Target PacifiCorp - WA PSE Avista SCL Snohomish PUD Benton PUD Mason PUD #3 Lewis PUD Grant PUD Chelan PUD Grays Harbor PUD Cowlitz PUD Clallam PUD Clark PUD Tacoma Power Peninsula Light
After A Quarter Century The Region May Finally Achieve the Power Act s s Vision of Making the Inefficient Use of Electricity... Immoral Illegal Unprofitable slide 34
Thank you very much. Thank you verry, verry much. slide 35