Transmission Planning at the Midwest ISO Mr. Eric Laverty Senior Manager of Transmission Access Planning Midwest ISO June 26 th, 2008
Midwest ISO: What We Do Monitor flow of power over the high voltage transmission system Schedule transmission service Manage power congestion through security-constrained economic dispatch Operate day-ahead and real-time energy markets Regional transmission planning Today s Focus
Key Issues Currently Impacting Transmission Planning ( Planning Activities Key Issues Congestion Renewable Policy Operational Impacts Load Growth and DSM Aging Infrastructure Fair Cost Allocation New Generation and Demand Response Changing Regulatory Requirements 3
Transmission Design Goal One robust transmission system Wind Introduces Energy Resources to a transmission system designed for capacity delivery Transmission Value Drivers have historically not been well understood
Midwest ISO Transmission Studies Short term Primarily bottom up analysis of transmission to reliably serve load and generation (i.e. to meet NERC Planning Standards) Includes analysis of transmission facilities needed to reliably serve Generator Interconnection and Transmission Service Requests Mid term 5 to10 year+ Targeted studies to address specific areas of concern / need Current examples include studies to address Narrowly Constrained Areas in market and Generation Outlet for wind in western Midwest ISO Long term - 15-20 years Top down energy delivery studies focused on economic value Reliability analysis follows Up to four generation scenarios to bookend probable outcomes Includes Joint Coordinated System Plan
2008-2027 Future Generation Scenarios irement 2008-2027 (MW) Additional Capacity Requi 90,000 80,000 76,334 67,560 70,000 1,235 1,425 60,000 50,000 61,167 42,780 1,235 40,500 40,000 1,425 12,600 30,000 3,520 3,600 1,600 20,000 6,000 1,902 700 10,000 20,400 16,800 9,120-3445 Reference Renewable Current Queue* Nuclear Coal CC CT Wind Behind the Meter Demand Response Midwest ISO longterm planning process models alternative scenarios of future generation needs Scenarios support a transmission planning approach which attempts to maximize optionally of the transmission grid, given an uncertain future Renewable future assumes 20% renewable mandate across Midwest ISO footprint * Requests under evaluation in queue as of March 7, 2008; wind includes 231 MW of other renewables
Transmission Expansion for Renewable Future year 2021 40,000 MW Midwest ISO Black dotted - 800 kv HVDC Blue dotted - 765 kv AC Yellow dotted - 345 kv AC
Queue Evolution * Number of Requests GW of Requests 214 54 Currently Active: 367 Requests (300 wind) 16 8 11 14 Currently Active: 83.5 GW (67.0 GW wind) 3 3 2 131 12 1 79 12 5 8 11 43 90 13 5 20 51 18 99 165 2004 2005 20 2007 2008 YTD 76 7 66 24 46 8 13 11 12 2 2 3 5 14 5 11 3 4 2004 2005 20 2007 2008 YTD Wind Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Other * All requests received as of May 14, 2008
MW Requested 30000 25000 20000 15000 Active Queued Requests by State Other Nuclear Coal Gas Wind 10000 5000 0 KY MT OH WI MO IN MI IA IL ND SD MN
Location of Currently Queued Requests
3 P s of Queue Reform Process Success in queue reform rests on addressing each of the 3 P s Currently working on solutions targeted at interconnecting generation more efficiently: Process: focus study efforts on those generation projects ready to achieve interconnection Physics: Regional Generation Outlet Study is the first step in using alternative planning methods to indentify network upgrades to support interconnection of large quantities of generation in remote areas Policy: Opening dialogue on items such as cost sharing and recovery Filing to FERC on proposed changes to process expected mid-june 2008
Current Queue Example: Buffalo Ridge Area Add CapX, 1900 Add BRIGO, 1200 Next upgrade, 825 Today s level, 425 A snapshot of the Buffalo Ridge area indicates that generator requests significantly exceed current transfer capability.
Current Queue Example: Group Study Process Under the current group study process, all generation requests meeting the location and time-based criteria are considered, independent of demand for power in the region, resulting in restudy Start Feasibility Study Complete Feasibility Study Start Impact Study Interim Results: $164M in upgrades Complete Impact Study: $122M in upgrades Start Impact Restudy; Start part of Facilities Study Complete Impact Restudy; $14M in upgrades Complete Facilities Study (Phase I) Start Impact Restudy; Restart Facilities Study Complete Impact Restudy; $14M in upgrades Jun- 05 Jul- 05 Aug- 05 604 MW 8 Requests Sep- 05 Oct- 05 Nov- 05 Dec- 05 Jan- Feb- Mar- 580 MW 7 Requests Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 244 MW 3 Requests Dec- Jan- 07 Feb- 07 Mar- 07 Apr- 07 194 MW 2 Requests
Targeted Planning Study: Regional Generation Outlet Study drives greater integration between longer and shorter term planning processes by holistically addressing transmission requirements associated with interconnecting large quantities of wind generation Scope of work: Determine distribution of wind sites across footprint to maximize ease of wind integration Assess year-by-year aggregate wind mandates for all states in Midwest ISO, and associated renewable capacity requirements Develop five year road map of transmission projects to interconnect wind generation informed by the queue and consistent with mandates
Conditions Precedent to Increased Transmission Build A robust business case for the plan Need to demonstrate that the hypothesized benefits exist, including evaluation of alternatives Regulators are the judge of the business case Increased consensus around regional energy policy Does not exist today around wind, for example, across the Midwest ISO footprint A regional tariff that matches who benefits with who pays over time For example, beneficiaries of wind may be due to public policy, rather than load flow or economic benefit analyses which are the current basis for cost allocation Cost recovery mechanisms that reduce financial risk Investors in these projects need to be assured of cost recovery