Prism 2.: The Value of Innovation Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D. Vice President, Environment & Renewables Electric Power Research Institute 211 Summer Seminar August 1, 211
Change in Discounted GDP from 22 2 Through 25 ($Trillions) Limited Portfolio Looking Back Prism/MERGE Technology can reduce policy cost by ~45%. -.5-1. -1.5-2. -2.5-3. No CCS or New Nuclear Cost of Policy Reduction in Policy Cost with Advanced Technology -3.5 Value of R&D Investment 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Looking Forward Prism 2. Building upon previous EPRI Prism U.S. economy-wide model incorporating regional detail Improved treatment of renewables High-resolution wind and solar resource data Improved treatment of integration costs of variable generation Integrated biomass model with resource competition Full complement of environmental regulations Expanded demand-side detail by region Energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed resources 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
What is the Value of Innovation? Policy Scenarios Technology Cases Limited Portfolio Reference CO 2 Controls Clean Energy Standard Results are illustrative, not polished scenarios!!! 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Technology Cases Efficiency Renewables Inter-Region Transmission Nuclear Natural Gas CCS Limited Portfolio Capital energy elasticity of substitution =.2 EPRI ETAC estimates Existing capacity only, no new builds No capacity extends license to 8 years; no new units AEO 21; supply increases more slowly as prices rise Not available Capital energy elasticity of substitution =.5 Improved cost and performance (2-5%) New builds allowed at $3.85M per mile 8% of capacity can extend to 8 years; new units ok AEO 21; supply increases more quickly as prices rise 9% capture for gas and coal available after 22 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
TWh National Generation Mix: Reference Scenario 7 6 Limited Portfolio Energy Efficiency & Price Response* 7 6 Solar Geothermal 5 AEO 21 Baseline Wind 5 Biomass 4 Hydro+ 4 New Nuclear 3 Existing Nuclear 3 2 Gas 2 New Coal 1 Existing Coal 1 21 22 23 24 25 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. * Above the black line reflects embedded EE in the AEO 21 Reference Case 6 21 22 23 24 25
TWh National Generation Mix: CO 2 Controls 7 Limited Portfolio 7 6 6 Geothermal 5 AEO 21 Baseline Energy Efficiency & Price Response* 5 New Coal 4 Biomass Solar 4 3 Wind 3 New Nuclear 2 Hydro+ Existing Nuclear 2 Gas w/ccs 1 Existing Coal Gas 21 22 23 24 25 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 7 1 * Above the black line reflects embedded EE in the AEO 21 Reference Case New Coal w/ccs CCS Retrofit 21 22 23 24 25
TWh National Generation Mix: Clean Energy Standard 7 Limited Portfolio 7 6 Energy Efficiency & Price Response* 6 Geothermal 5 AEO 21 Baseline 5 New Coal Solar 4 3 Hydro+ Existing Nuclear Wind Biomass 4 3 New Nuclear 2 Gas 2 1 Existing Coal 21 22 23 24 25 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 8 1 * Above the black line reflects embedded EE in the AEO 21 Reference Case CCS Retrofit New Coal w/ccs 21 22 23 24 25
TWh TWh TWh TWh Regional Generation Mix: Clean Energy Standard New Coal w/ccs New Coal CCS Retrofit Hydro+ Nuclear (New) Nuclear (Existing) Imports Solar Geothermal Total Energy for Load 2 15 EAST Existing Coal Gas w/ccs Gas Biomass Wind 1 2 WEST 2 MIDWEST 5 15 1 5 15 1 5 2 15 21 22 23 24 25 SOUTH 21 22 23 24 25 21 22 23 24 25 1 5 Clean Energy Standard 21 22 23 24 25 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
$ (29) per MWh Wholesale Electricity Prices 2 175 15 125 National Average Wholesale Electricity Prices Near-term price rise in all cases Innovation shows significant value in long-term 1 75 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Ref - Full CES - Full CO2 - Full Ref - Limited CES - Limited CO2 - Limited 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 1
$ (29) per MMBtu Wholesale Natural Gas Prices 15 12 National Average Wholesale Natural Gas Prices Innovation shows significant value in long-term 9 6 3 Near-term price rise in all cases 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Ref - Full CES - Full CO2 - Full Ref - Limited CES - Limited CO2 - Limited 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
Summary Innovation is valuable Lower prices for electricity, gas Innovation is robust Consistent across all scenarios studied here Innovation is diverse Each region will use different tools at different times In a world of uncertainty, innovation is key 211 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 12