Christine Skold Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications 2
Safe Harbor Statement The Company claims the protection of the safe-harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The Company intends these forward-looking statements to speak only as of the time of the presentation and does not undertake to update or revise them, as more information becomes available. These statements discuss, among other things, expected growth, store development and expansion strategy, business strategies, future revenues and future performance. These forward-looking statements are based on estimates, projections, beliefs and assumptions, including, but not limited to, competition, product demand, economic conditions, inflation, consumer debt levels, governmental approvals, ability to hire and retain qualified employees, weather, etc. Actual results may materially differ from anticipated results described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Risk Factors section of the Company s Form 10-K for more details. 3
Presentation Agenda Tractor Supply: A Growth Company Greg Sandfort Merchandising Deep Dive Steve Barbarick Technology and Business Initiatives Rob Mills Financial Review and Targets Tony Crudele 4
Greg Sandfort President and Chief Executive Officer 5
Our Unique Position Leading Rural Lifestyle Retailer Largest operator for the lifestyle Primarily located in rural communities 1,500+ stores in 49 states Our Customer Land and animal owners Self reliant and DIY Loyal and growing Unique Niche Dependable supplier Items to care for home, land, pets & animals 6
The Power of Our Mission and Values 7
2015 Highlights Opened 114 stores Added ~1,600 new Team Member positions Casa Grande Distribution Center LEED Silver certified Omni-channel upgrades / new website platform Improved operating margin to 10.4% Grew Earnings Per Share 12.8% to $3.00 8
Track Record of Growth 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,001 1,085 Stores 1,176 1,276 1,382 Sales (in $ billions) 1,588-1,593 6.9-7.0 $8 1,488 6.23 5.71 $6 5.16 3.64 4.23 4.66 $4 500 $2 0 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16* $0 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16* $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Net Income (in $millions) 455-467 3.40-3.48 $4 410 371 328 2.66 3.00 $3 276 2.32 223 1.90 $2 168 1.51 1.12 $1 $0 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16* '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16* * 2016 estimates as of January 27, 2016 E.P.S. 9
Resilient Business Model Livestock & Pet Hardware, Tools & Truck Seasonal, Gift & Toys Clothing & Footwear Agricultural Products Percent of Sales 2015 5% 9% 44% 19% 23% Percent of Sales - 2010 6% 10% 39% 22% 23% 10
Growth Opportunities Pet Food, supplies, medicine, and services to care for TSC s pet companions and animals Rural Services Services (e.g., Do It For Me, Get It To Me) to support the rural lifestyle customers needs My Land Products to help the rural consumer care for and enjoy the land around his or her property Sustainable Living Feed, live goods, and equipment for the sustainably conscious consumer 11
Store Growth Cadence 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e TSC Stores 114 ~ 120 ~ 120 ~ 120 ~ 120 Growth Rate (gross) 8.2% ~ 8.0% ~ 7.5% ~ 7.0% ~ 6.5% Tractor Supply Store Count 4Q15 / Opportunity (excludes 17 Del s & 2 HomeTown Pet stores) = DC Locations Store Count 1,488 Target store growth at ~120 stores per year subsequent to 2016 140/424 193/352 572/825 564/899 Total: 1,469 / 2,500 12
Sales Drivers Gross Margin Growing the Business Customer Engagement Systems / Process 13
Steve Barbarick Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer 14
Merchandising Principles Be the most dependable supplier of basic maintenance needs Differentiate through products and brands Offer value that exceeds customer expectation Excite customers with treasure hunt experience Maintain commitment to supporting the Out Here customer 15
Sales-driving Initiatives New Products C.U.E. Drive Aisle Merchandise Localization Sales 16
New Products Pipeline of opportunities Structured in-store test program E-commerce test and learn Open buying days Category resets 17
New and Expanded Product Lines 18
Category Resets More Than Just Products 19
C.U.E. Core assortments Most dependable supplier Grow market share High in-stock levels Price management Expand assortments 20
Expanding Assortments 21
Drive Aisle Merchandising Increase basket Support event merchandising Offer Treasure Hunt experience Learn from customer 22
Center Court Events Garden Event Chick Days Event 60% new items Branded product Expanded Organic seeds Expanded live goods 30% new items Coops, equipment and health products Expanded assortments on line 23
Localization Chain vs site philosophy Relevant assortments Brand preferences Customer feedback 24
Regional Opportunities Local Store Assortment Regional Brand Preference Geographic Assortment 25
Gross Margin Initiatives Exclusive Brands Strategic Sourcing Price Management Inventory Management Gross Margin 26
Exclusive Brands ~30% of sales Brand development approach Value proposition Opportunity for growth 27
Expanded Offerings 4health Total Care 3/5/2013
Strategic Sourcing Dependable supplier Landed cost Supply chain efficiencies Multi-source emphasis 29
Price Optimization Science and art approach Balance share vs rate Clearance management Promotional management 30
Inventory Management Seasonal set and end dates Ability to adapt and react Implementing allocation system 31
Extended Seasonal Set Dates Before After 32
Marketing Initiatives Increase Sales to Existing Customers Expand Customer Base Strengthen Community Connection Marketing Strategies Build the Brand 33
Increase Sales to Existing Customers Digital marketing Optimize traditional National Marketing channels Neighbors Club loyalty program pilot Personalization - relevance 34
Expand Customer Base Broad appeal categories pet focus Enhance search engine marketing Drive trial through existing advertising channels 35
Strengthen Community Connection Enhanced 4-H and FFA programs Sponsorships of community events Empowering stores with tools 36
Build the Brand Authority For Life Out Here Tractorize content Influence marketing social media Exclusive brand marketing Taking the brand to our customer Follow Me to the Fair tour 37
2016 Marketing Overview 430+ Million Circulars 190 Million Emails 3 Billion Digital Impressions 9 National Events 100 Million Social Impressions 15 Million Direct Mail Pieces 38
Rob Mills Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer 39
Sales Drivers Gross Margin Growing the Business Customer Engagement Systems / Process 40
Transforming Technology at TSC Security Accelerate Business Capabilities Core IT Functions Best of Breed Foundations People Scalability & Stability Process Maturity Reactive Evolving technology to drive sales, improve gross margin and enhance the customer experience 41
Business & Technology Alignment Strategic Investment Security & Compliance Growth Foundational Investment Driving a return on investment while ensuring a secure foundation 42
Alignment of Strategic Investments Customer Engagement Integrated and seamless customer experience across all channels Customer engagement and analytics Systems / Process Improving Merchandising Productivity Continue to Support Growth 43
Seamless Shopping Experience In Store Online Land Delivering a consistency and dependable customer experience across all channels 44
Customer Engagement In-store Mobility Mobile POS Customer Purchase History Inventory and Pricing Digital Platform Enhanced search capabilities Near Real Time Inventory Responsive Design In Store Customer Ordering (Special Order) 45
Customer Insights and Analytics Loyalty Program Pilot in 140+ stores Test & Learn program Easy enrollment Across all channels Integration with private label credit card Customer Relationship Management Purchase history across all channels Preference Center Online account management Personalized experience 46
Merchandising Productivity Leveraging Art and Science Right Product, Right Time, Right Place Localization Space Optimization Product Information Management Efficient Item and content onboarding process Enhanced content across all channels 47
Growth Supply Chain Warehouse Management Upgrade Transportation Management Expanded Customer Fulfillment Options New Store Growth Real Estate Management Tools Efficient, easy to integrate technology Infrastructure to support in store digital experience 48
A Customer Scenario A Typical Tractor Supply Customer Family of four Own a small plot land in a rural community Wants to manage land effectively Environmentally conscious Digital Content Product Information Digital Platform Customer Loyalty In-Store Mobility Fulfillment Options Customer Analytics Through TSC s Know How Central, the customer learns about fencing that can help protect property and contain a small herd of livestock. Our customer checks availability of the products needed and drives to the local TSC store. A Team Member greets the customer in the side lot and helps identify the products. The customer then completes the transaction on a mobile device in the side lot and a Team Member helps load the fencing into his truck. The customer also signs up for the Neighbor s Club during the transaction. Later that day, our customer receives and email providing access to their transaction history online; the customer provides information about their animals and property. Our customer also receives an offer to attend our veterinary clinic in the store the coming weekend. 49
Future Capabilities The Road to TSC 2020 Smart, strategic technology investment Drive business productivity and capabilities Turn data into insights Keep Tractor Supply Company assets secure 50
Tony Crudele Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 51
Compelling Long-Term Annual Growth Targets Grow Stores ~ 120 Same-Store Sales Growth ~ 3% - 5% Improve Operating Margin ~25 bps annually Grow EPS in the Mid- Teens as a % annually Invest to Grow Business ~ $250m - $300m per year Return Cash to Shareholders 52
Proforma New Store Assumptions (in $ thousands) Inventory 730 Leasehold Improvements 650 Total 1,380 Vendor Payables (310) Net Investment 1,070 Assumes 50/50 mix of retrofit and prototype stores; varies by year based on mix of stores (including self-developed) Y1 Sales $2.9 - $3.2 Same store sales Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 (above chain avg) ~ 400 600 bps ~ 200 300 bps 53
New Store Sales Compared to Chain Average 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e New Store Avg Store 54
New Store Performance Exceeds Proforma IRR 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e Approved Actual/Forecast 55
New Store YR1 Operating Profit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e New Store OP $ New Store Actual OP % Sales New Store Proforma OP % Sales 56
Comparable Sales Increase West vs Chain Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 West New Stores Other New Stores Chain 57
Credit Facility Update Current Credit Facility Expires Oct. 2016 Wells Fargo and Regions Bank lead agents (includes both revolver and term loan) 8 Banks in Current Facility (similar to prior) TSCO continues to be seen as low risk No significant change to our capital structure and allocation philosophy 58
New Credit Facility Summary ($ in millions) 2011 Agreement 2014 Amendment 2016 Agreement Revolver Capacity $250,000 $400,000 $500,000 Term Loan $200,000 Total Debt $250,000 $400,000 $700,000 Tenor 5 Year Continue 5Y 5 Year Debt Spread LIBOR + 50bps LIBOR + 50bps LIBOR + 62.5bps Term Loan Interest Fixed at ~1.80% Unused Fees 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% Expiration Date October 24, 2016 October 24, 2016 February 19, 2021 # of banks 8 8 8 59
Credit Facility Comparisons ($ in millions) Tenor Revolver Term Drawn Unused 5-Yr $500 $200 L + 62.5 bps 10.0 bps 5-Yr $1,000 $425 L + 125.0 bps 15.0 bps 5-Yr $1,250 L + 112.5 bps 12.5 bps 5-Yr $1,750 L + 100 bps 9.0 bps 5-Yr $1,250 L + 150 bps 22.5 bps 5-Yr $1,000 $700 L + 150 bps 20.0 bps 5-Yr $500 L + 112.5 bps 12.5 bps 5-Yr $700 $300 L + 112.5 bps 12.5 bps 5-Yr $500 L +100.0 bps 9.0 bps 5-Yr $775 L + 125.0 bps 17.5 bps 60
Compelling Long-Term Annual Growth Targets Grow Stores ~ 120 Same-Store Sales Growth ~ 3% - 5% Improve Operating Margin ~25 bps annually Grow EPS in the Mid- Teens as a % annually Invest to Grow Business ~ $250m - $300m per year Return Cash to Shareholders 61
Strong Cash Flow Supports Capital Allocation ($ in millions) 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e Est. 16-19 Cummulative Operating Cash Flow $ 590 $ 660 $ 700 $ 780 $2,730 CapEx 250 280 300 300 1,130 Free Cash Flow $ 340 $ 380 $ 400 $ 480 $1,600 Year End Debt $ 200 $ 260 $ 350 $ 430 Leverage Ratio 2.0 x 2.0 x 2.0 x 2.0 x Peak Borrowing $ 340 $ 390 $ 470 $ 560 Cumulative ~ $1.6b of Cash Available to Return to Shareholders 62
Capital Expenditure Targets 2016e 2019e New Stores $125m $140m Maintenance / Updates $50m $60m Distribution Centers $30m $80m Technology $30m $40m Total ~ $250m - $300m Annually Consistent Infrastructure Investment in Future Years 63
Capital Allocation Targets 2016 to 2019 Investing for Growth ~ $250m - $300m annually Dividend $0.20 per share quarterly (raised May 2015) 20 to 30% Payout Ratio 15 to 20% Dividend Growth Dividend Reinvest in the Business Share Repurchase Share Repurchase ~ 50% of Operating Cash Flow ~ $260m - $400m annually ~ 2% - 3% Shares Purchased annually Creating Shareholder Value 64
Consistent Capital Allocation Last Five Years Next Four Years 14% 38% 20% 38% 48% 42% 2011 2015 $2.4b Cap Ex Share Repurchase Dividend 2016 2019 ~ $3.0b 65
Reasons to Invest in Tractor Supply Growth company in a unique niche Serves an expanding customer base Continued store growth in rural markets across the country Clear strategic plan, rigor and passion Defined capital allocation strategy Focused on Shareholder Value Creation Balanced approach to managing business Driving sales Improving gross margin Managing growth investments 66
Thank you! 67