Decent work and the environmental dimension in the 2030 Agenda Moustapha Kamal Gueye Policy specialist, Green Jobs Programme, ILO 1
Learning objectives 1. To understand better how environmental issues present both risks and opportunities for decent work creation 2. To identify the environment-related drivers (and targets) closely connected to Goal 8 3. To identify possible policy entry points at the country level for engagement of the world of work 2
A few fundamental questions Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meets their own needs (Gro Harlem Brundtland, World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987. 3
Material intensity in the world economy (Link Goal 8.4) Domestic extraction of materials per unit of GDP by world region
Two planets will be needed by 2050 If current patterns of production & consumption are maintained 1900 2002 2050 2100 5
Our operating space: Planetary boundaries Source: Rockstrom et al. (2009) 6
Climate impacts on workers and enterprises everywhere, however capacities to respond differ significantly Link to target 1.3 on social protection Bangladesh, 2007, Cyclone Sidr disrupted several hundred thousand small businesses and adversely affected 567,000 jobs. Philippines, December 2014, Typhoon Hagupit affected around 800,000 workers, with their source of livelihood damaged or disrupted overnight. United States, 2012, hurricane Sandy left 150,000 workers displaced and employment was overall reduced by over 11,000 workers in New Jersey in 2012.
Productivity loss resulting from further increases in GHG compared to the baseline (%) Note: The baseline scenario assumes that environmental damages remain at the level of the base year (2000). Source: Bridji et al., 2011, cited in ILO 2012.
Be guided by wisdom Earth has enough resources to meet people s needs, but will never have enough to satisfy people's greed, Mahatma Gandhi 9
Growth and jobs within the remaining carbon budget In 2015 Global mean temperature 1.8 C Phase out of fossil fuels, shift to renewables Keep fossil fuels with commercial carbon capture and storage By 2100 2 C or 1.5 C Below pre-industrial levels 1900 Gt CO 2 eq already emitted in 2012, which is about 2/3 of this limit Actual carbon budget for a 2 C scenario is 1000 Gt CO 2 eq Total human emissions of CO2 to remain less than 2900 Gt CO 2 eq Note: Data based on IPCC 5 th Assessment Report, 2014, and NASA and NOAA for 2015 10
What countries have committed to do on climate change Uganda: 22% reduction of GHG emissions in 2030 compared to BAU Turkey: Up to 21% reduction in GHG emissions from BAU level by 2030. India: Reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33 to 35% by 2030 from 2005 level Bosnia and Herzegovina: emission reduction of 3% compared to 1990, and 23% compared to the BAU in 2030 11
Greater resource efficiency and climate resilience mean Greater competitiveness Lower environmental, social and economic costs More productive employment
Why does this matter for the world of work? Environmental sustainability for the SDGs in the 2030 Agenda Mini quiz
Food security: As a consequence of climate change, yields from rain-fed agriculture are expected to decline in certain African countries by: a. 10% by 2020 b. 30% by 2020 c. 50% by 2020
Answer c. 50% by 2020 By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007).
Health: Which of the following factors is responsible for 4 million premature deaths each year? a. HIV/AIDS b. Malaria c. Indoor air pollution
Answer c. Indoor air pollution There are 7 million premature deaths annually linked to air pollution, both indoor and outdoor. The western Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa accounted for almost six million premature deaths. Indoor pollutants from cooking stove fuels like wood, coal, and cow dung caused more than half of those deaths. That is more deaths than are caused by HIV/AIDS, around 1.6 million per year and malaria, around 627,000 (WHO 2014).
Energy: Which of the following source provided over 80% of new power generation in 2014? a. Nuclear energy b. Coal c. Renewable energies
Answer c. Renewable energies Over 80 percent of new power generation in 2014 came from renewable energy sources, the highest level since 1974.
Water: Which economic sector consumes 70% of global freshwater resources? a. Agriculture b. Industry c. Hotels
Answer a. Agriculture Agriculture can be highly resource-intensive, using over 70 per cent of fresh water available globally and contributing to 13 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions (ILO/IOE/ITUC/UNEP: 2012 - Sources of data: IPCC, 2007 and OECD).
Jobs: In 2014, which of the following sectors employed 7.2 people with a potential for 24 million jobs by 2030? a. Waste management b. Recycling c. Renewable energies
c. Renewable energies Answer According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, renewable energies employed 7.2 million people in 2014. The doubling of the share of renewables in the energy mix would lead to over 24 million jobs in the sector by 2030. Globally, the ILO estimates that a low-carbon, greener economy could deliver up to 60 million new jobs by 2030.
Responsible consumption: The global market for organic foods and drinks is estimated at: a. $10 billion/year b. $30 billion/year c. $60 billion/year
c. 60 billion/year Answer Global trade in organic food, drinks, fibre and cosmetics is over US$ 60 billion per year. Major (developed country) export markets for organic products are growing at 10 to 20% per year. Whilst most of organic agriculture production takes place in developing countries, most of the consumption is in developed countries, creating significant growth opportunities for developing country exports (UNEP, 2011).
What are implications for SDGs programming and implementation?
SDGs, sustainability and jobs African manufacturing enterprises lose up to 20% of sales revenues due to power shortage, costing 2.1% of GDP on average, World Bank Resource intensive-economies will cost global productivity drops of 2.4 % by 2030 and 7.2% by 2050, while sustainable pathways increase total factor productivity, ILO In the Asia Pacific region, the costs of climate change to the workforce due to both health care and lost wages is likely to be $10 billion to $20 billion per year by 2030, Lancet Commission
SDGs, sustainability and jobs Goal 7 Energy Ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix development African manufacturing enterprises lose up to 20% of sales revenues due to power shortage, costing 2.1% of GDP on average, World Bank Goal 12 Sustainable consumption and production Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle Resource intensive-economies will cost global productivity drops of 2.4 % by 2030 and 7.2% by 2050, while sustainable pathways increase total factor productivity, ILO Goal 13 Climate change Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climaterelated hazards and natural disasters in all countries In the Asia Pacific region, the costs of climate change to the workforce due to both health care and lost wages is likely to be $10 billion to $20 billion per year by 2030, Lancet Commission
SDGs, sustainability and jobs Goal 7 Energy China: 4 million jobs in renewable energies today, 10 million in 2020 Goal 12 Sustainable consumption and production Europe: 1 percentage increase in resource use efficiency leads to up to 200,000 new jobs Goal 13 Climate change South Africa EPWP created over 4 million work opportunities during 2009-2014, many in adaptation related sectors (water management, flood control
Meeting the demands from countries Source: UN Department for economic and social affairs 33
Recap: Key messages Climate action offers opportunities for decent work and social inclusion through: - Job creation - New enterprises in the selling of green products and services - Greener workplaces - Climate resilient infastructure Unabated environmental challenges risks compromising the ability to reach Goal 8 due to: - Job losses - Damage to business assets - Impacts on productivity - Impacts on OSH - Forced migration Source: ILO 2015, Decent Jobs in a Safe Climate: ILO Solutions for Climate Action
Possible entry points for country engagement National climate change action plans (NDCs) UNDAF WoW engagement UN system comprehensive strategy on climate change under the HLCP Green climate funds 35
Tool for engagement: The Just Transition Guidelines Policy coherence and effective institutional arrangements Social Dialogue Macro/Sector Employment Social Macroeconomic Industrial and sector La bo ur Sta nd ar ds Enterprises Skills Labour market La bo ur Sta nd ar ds Occupational safety and health Social protection
Questions for discussion What challenges and opportunities does environmental sustainability pose for decent work? What are relevant entry points for country engagement? Innovative partnerships: Thinking tripartite + 37