BEIHANG University RESEARCH ON THE EFFECT OF EXPORT TAX REBATE RATE ADJUSTMENT ON INDUSTRIAL EMISSION IN CHINA Associate Prof. Shengling Bai Beihang University June 2017
Outline of the Presentation 1 2 3 4 5 Introduction Status Analysis Theoretical Analysis Empirical Analysis Conclusion
Introduction 1
Background and Significance of the Topic With continuous growth of economy and expansion of international trade, China s ecological environment has been destroyed seriously. To promote trade pattern transformation and reduce pollution, export tax rebate has been repeatedly reduced or even canceled for many environmental-harmful, high energy-consuming and resource-intensive products and increased for many hightech, high value-added products since 2004. We hope this study can provide some references for rationalizing export tax rebate rate, promoting trade pattern transformation and reducing industrial emission.
Domestic and Foreign Research Status Most of the existing research on the environmental effect of export tax rebate policy is based on the perspective of carbon emission. Research based on the perspective of pollutant emission is less, most of which is theoretical analysis. Some articles simulate the impact of adjusting export tax rebate on environment based on a CGE model, and empirical research based on real data is rare.
Research Route Status Analysis Theoretical Derivation Empirical Analysis Status of Export Tax Rebate Policy in China Calculation and Status Analysis of Industrial Emission of Export in China Theoretical Derivation Based on a CGE Model Empirical Analysis Based on a SVAR Model Conclusion
Status Analysis 2
Status of Export Tax Rebate Policy in China 0.085 0.08 0.075 0.07 0.065 0.06 0.055 0.05 Comprehensive Export Tax Rebate Rate of China in 2003-2014 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Comprehensive Export Tax Rebate Rate = Annual Export Tax Refund Annual Export Volume Data Source: EPS Data Platform Current export tax rebate rate in China has 9 stalls: 3%, 5%, 6%, 9%, 11%, 13%, 15%, 16%, 17%; Export tax rebates has been repeatedly reduced or even canceled for most of the environmental-harmful, high energy-consuming and resource-intensive products; Export tax rebates has been increased for many hightech, high value-added products.
Calculation and Status Analysis of Industrial Emission of Export in China Calculation method: Industrial emission intensity = Industrial emission volume GDP Industrial emission volume of export = Industrial emission intensity Export Volume Data Source: EPS Data Platform Industrial Emission Intensity of Export in 2003-2014 Industrial Emission Volume of Export in 2003-2014 Year Industrial Gas(Standard cubic meter/yuan) Industrial SO2(g/Yuan) Industrial Smoke and Dust(g/Yuan) 2003 1.456 1.312 1.367 2004 1.479 1.177 1.115 2005 1.447 1.167 1.001 2006 1.521 1.027 0.769 2007 1.448 0.798 0.548 2008 1.275 0.629 0.396 2009 1.262 0.539 0.326 2010 1.269 0.456 0.257 2011 1.393 0.417 0.212 2012 1.189 0.358 0.179 2013 1.138 0.312 0.174 2014 1.091 0.274 0.199 Year Industrial Gas(Standard cubic meter/yuan) Industrial SO2(g/Yuan) Industrial Smoke and Dust(g/Yuan) 2003 52853.24 476.06 496.20 2004 72623.60 577.88 547.30 2005 90650.71 730.76 626.87 2006 118001.92 796.73 596.41 2007 135506.94 747.06 513.10 2008 128005.90 631.18 397.96 2009 103492.99 442.84 267.71 2010 135882.63 487.97 275.32 2011 171705.97 513.51 261.69 2012 153916.41 462.99 231.87 2013 156101.15 427.99 238.46 2014 157013.91 393.65 286.91
Calculation and Status Analysis of Industrial Emission of Export in China Industrial Emission Volume of Export in 2003-2014 The Growth Rate of Industrial Emission Volume of Export in 2003-2014 200000.00 180000.00 160000.00 140000.00 120000.00 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 100000.00 80000.00 60000.00 40000.00 0.1 0-0.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20000.00 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-0.3-0.2 The Growth Rate of Industrial Emission Volume of Export has begun to decline since 2004, which is basically consistent with the timing of the export tax rebate rate adjustment.
Calculation and Status Analysis of Industrial Emission of Export in China 900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 700.00 0.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 0.5 Industrial SO2, Smoke and Dust Emission Volume and Growth Rate of Export in 2003-2014 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4 0.4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-0.1-0.2-0.3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-0.4 The trends of industrial SO2, smoke and dust emissions are basically the same as the total amount of industrial emission, but there is still a slight difference. It can be concluded that the treatment of typical industrial gas starts earlier and the treatment effect is more ideal.
Theoretical Derivation 3
Theoretical Derivation Based on a CGE Model Referring to Chi-Chur Chao et al.(2006) and Liu Yingxi(2014) s CGE method, this paper builds a theoretical model. Chi-Chur Chao et al.(2006) Value-added tax and consumption tax were not taken into account; Liu Yingxi(2014) Set the tariff rate equaled to the comprehensive tax rate of valueadded tax and consumption tax ; This paper Two points above are inconsistent with reality, this paper aims to make improvements.
Model Derivation Suppose that the home economy produces three products, X, Y, and M. The production of X requires input intermediate product M, which is composed of domestic and foreign intermediates. Some of the products X are exported to abroad. Some of the products Y are locally produced while others are imported. The production function for X is: Q X =Q X L X,K X,M =min L X,K X,M (4.1.1 Where Q X denotes the production of X, L X denotes the labor force imputed for producing a unit of X, and M denotes the intermediate imputed for producing a unit of X. M is composed of domestic and foreign intermediates, M D and M F. The production function for M uses Cobb-Douglas function form: M= M D θ M F 1 θ (4.1.2 The production function for domestic intermediates M D is: M D =M D L M,K M =min L M,K M (4.1.3 The production function for X is: Q Y =Q Y L Y,K Y =min L Y,K Y (4.1.4 Where K Y denotes the capital imputed for producing a unit of Y. Under this circumstance of full employment: L X +L Y +L M =L (4.1.5 K X +K Y +K M =K (4.1.6 Choosing Y as the numeraire, the price of Y in domestic market is 1. The prices for domestic and foreign intermediates are denoted by m D and m F. Owing to the Cobb Douglas function of M, the price of intermediate is: m=φ m D θ m F 1 θ (4.1.7 φ=θ θ 1 θ 1 θ (4.1.8 m F =m f +t 2 (4.1.9 Where m f denotes the price of imported intermediate in foreign market, t 2 denotes the tariff on imported intermediate. Effective price of X at home is: p D =p d p D t 1 (4.1.10 Where p d denotes the real price of X at home, t 1 denotes the comprehensive tax rate of value-added tax and consumption tax. Tax Rebates on X for export are granted. The effective export price of X is: p F =p f +rt 2 M F M +p Dt 1 r p D t 1 (4.1.11 Where p f denotes the real price of X in foreign market, r denotes export tax rebate, M F M denotes the proportion of imported intermediate products used in the production of a unit of intermediate product. According to no-arbitrage theory, the domestic effective price of X must equal to its export price. p D =p F =p f +rt 2 M F M +p Dt 1 r p D t 1 (4.1.12
Model Derivation Under competitive equilibrium, unit price equals unit cost. Unit cost functions for X, Y and intermediate M are: p D =α w,m,c =w+m+c (4.1.13 p Y =1=β w,c (4.1.14 m D =γ w,c (4.1.15 Where w denotes the wage of a unit labor, c denoted capital rental rates. By the envelope theorem, β w w,c denotes the labor imputed for producing a unit of Y, γ w w,c denotes the labor imputed for producing a unit of intermediate M. Using the unit cost functions (equation(4.1.13), (4.1.14), (4.1.15)), we can rewrite the market-clearing conditions: Q X +β w w,c Q Y +γ w w,c M D =L (4.1.16 Q X +β c w,c Q Y +γ c w,c M D =K (4.1.17 In domestic market, the demand of domestic produced intermediate M meets its supply. The equilibrium condition is: θmm m D =M D (4.1.18 Similarly, the demand of exported intermediate M meets its supply in foreign market. The equilibrium condition is: 1 θ mm m F =M F (4.1.19 To solve the CGE model, we take the derivative of r for equation (4.1.12). We get the effect of the export tax rebate rate on the price of X: dp D dr = dpf dr +t M F 2 M +t 2r θm F m D M dm D dr 1 t 1 r 1 +t 1 p f +rt 2 M F M 1 t 1 r 1 2 >0 (4.2.1 As can be seen, the higher export tax rebate rate is, the higher price of X in domestic market is, which increases the profit of each product; the lower export tax rebate rate, the lower price of X in domestic market, which decreases the profit of each product. For equation (4.1.16), (4.1.17) and (4.1.18), we take the derivative of r and obtain the effect of export tax rebate rate on the yield of X: dq X dr = β cγw βwγc 1 θ θmq X βw m 2 Q Y β c D βw H H M D β c βw G G βc βw βw +β cγw βwγc βw θm m D >0 (4.2.2 dw In the equation above, H=β β dc ww dr wc <0,H =β dw dr cw β dc dr cc <0, dr dw G=β β dc ww dr wc <0,G =β dw dr cw β dc dr cc <0 dr The result shows that the higher export tax rebate rate is, the higher yield of X is; the lower export tax rebate rate is, the lower yield of X is. Industrial Emission in Export = Emission intensity Export Volume (4.2.3 To wrap up, industrial emission increases while export tax rebate rate is increased; industrial emission decreases while export tax rebate rate is decreased.
Derivation Result and Research Hypothesis Theoretical derivation result: Derivation of export tax rebate rate by yield, which shows that yield is positively related to export tax rebate rate; Industrial emission = Emission intensity Export Volume, which shows that industrial emission is positively related to export tax rebate rate. Research hypothesis: Reducing the export tax rebate rate can reduce the industrial emission in export.
Empirical Analysis 4
Empirical Analysis Based on a SVAR Model Model Selection SVAR model: Describe the dynamic relationship between variables and describe the current relationship at the same time. 1 2 Methodology 1 Industrial Emission: Variables 3 The AB style SVAR model is as follows: (The computing methods of SO2, Smoke and Dust are similar.) 2 Export Tax Rebate Rate: 3 Foreign Direct Investment: 4 Data Source This paper uses monthly data from 2003-2014, and the source of data is EPS Data Platform.
Tests of Variables and Model Stationarity Test of Variables ADF test shows that all variable series are stationary. Variables ADF Stationarityy the Growth Rate of Industrial Emission(P) -20.48599*** Yes the Growth Rate of Industrial SO 2 (SO 2 ) -21.35558*** Yes the Growth Rate of Industrial Smoke and Dust(SD) -20.76624*** Yes Export Tax Rebate Rate(ETRR) -2.611894* Yes the Growth Rate of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) -6.711804*** Yes Lag Order Selection Referring to LR, FPE, AIC, SC and HQ rule, lag orders of the three SVAR models are two. Lag Order LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 1 429.6549 Lag Order NA LogL 4.13e-07 LR -6.186101 FPE -5.993352 AIC -6.107773 SC HQ 2 469.7845 1 76.71833* 440.14822.61e-07* Lag Order NA - - LogL 3.54e-07 LR -6.340415- FPE -6.147666 AIC -6.262087 SC HQ 2 481.6543 1 79.34977* 6.643889* 6.258391* 440.4499 2.20e-07* NA - 6.487233* 3.52e-07 - -6.344852 - -6.152102-6.266523 3 477.4380 14.29414 2.67e-07 2-6.624089 479.4885-6.045841-6.389103 74.63259* 6.818445* 2.27e-07* 6.432947* - 6.661788* - - 4 481.5363 3 7.473406 488.71742.87e-07 13.19135-6.552005 2.26e-07-5.781008-6.789961-6.238692-6.211713 6.786596* -6.554976 6.401097* 6.629939* 5 484.7058 4 5.639679 492.76043.13e-07 7.372592-6.466261 2.43e-07-5.502515-6.717065-6.074619 3 486.2031 12.54054 2.34e-07-5.946068-6.752987-6.403751-6.174739-6.518002 6 486.5371 5 3.177860 495.92093.48e-07 5.623887-6.360839 2.65e-07-5.204344-6.631190-5.890869 4 489.9629 6.856070 2.53e-07-5.667444-6.675925-6.239548-5.904928-6.362611 7 490.7795 6 7.174651 497.96573.75e-07 3.548309-6.290874 2.95e-07-4.941630-6.528908-5.742576 5 493.1818 5.727756 2.76e-07-5.372412-6.590909-6.058937-5.627163-6.199267 8 499.3740 7 14.15563 501.41063.78e-07 5.825867-6.284911 3.21e-07-4.742917-6.447214-5.658284 6 495.3351 3.736621 3.06e-07-5.097970-6.490222-5.898916-5.333727-6.020252 8 510.4225 7 14.84322 498.8896 3.22e-07 6.011289-6.447390 3.33e-07-4.905396-6.410141-5.820763-5.060897-5.861843 8 508.9683 16.60013 3.29e-07-6.426004-4.884010-5.799377
Tests of Variables and Model Constraints of the model We impose 3 short-term constraints to each matrix C0: 1 The growth rate of industrial emission and the growth rate of foreign direct investment in current period have no effect on export tax rebate rate in current period. That is -c21=-c23 =0; 2 Export tax rebate rate in current period has little effect on the growth rate of foreign direct investment in current period. That is -c32 =0. According to the images of AR roots, the three SVAR models are stabile. Stability analysis of the model
Impulse Response Analysis Impulse response 工业废气 of the growth rate of industrial 排放总量 emission to structural shock of export tax rebate rate Impulse response of the growth rate of industrial SO2 to structural shock of export tax rebate rate Impulse response of the growth rate of industrial smoke and dust to structural shock of export tax rebate rate
Impulse Response Analysis Impulse response of the growth rate 工业废气 of industrial emission 排放总量 to structural shock of the growth rate of foreign direct investment Impulse response of the growth rate of industrial SO2 to structural shock of the growth rate of foreign direct investment Impulse response of the growth rate of industrial smoke and dust to structural shock of the growth rate of foreign direct investment
Empirical Results Analysis The estimated values of coefficient -c12, -c13 in matrix c0 of the SVAR models : Conclusions: -c 12 -c 13 Industrial Emission Model -5.056588 4.446251 Industrial SO2 Model -4.311169 3.673376 Industrial S&D Model -4.040992 3.563845 1. As export tax rebate rate is reduced by 1%, the growth rate of industrial emission, SO2, smoke and dust will decline by 5.06%, 4.31% and 4.04% respectively. Reducing export tax rebate rate will help to curb the industrial emission in export. 2. As foreign direct investment rate is increased by 1%, the growth rate of industrial emission, SO2, smoke and dust will decline by 4.45%, 3.67% and 3.56% respectively. Increasing the amount of foreign direct investment will help to curb the industrial emission in export, which verifies the pollution halo hypothesis to some extent.
Conclusion 5
Conclusion To sum up, both theoretical and empirical analysis show that the effect of export tax rebate rate adjustment on reducing industrial emission in China is significant, and it is beneficial to environment improvement and sustainable development.
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