Driving Towards Sustainable Mobility An Automotive Perspective on Biofuels Dr. Candace Wheeler GM Technical Fellow Global Energy Systems Center General Motors Corporation 1
Need for Energy Diversity and Advanced Biofuels Today 820 M vehicles 6.6 B people 12% ownership rate 2020 >1B vehicles 8 million people 15% ownership rate 96% of Today s Vehicles Are Dependent on Petroleum 2
The Challenge is Growing Sustainably Sustainable Supply CO2 Urbanization 3
GM Strategy: Displace Petroleum Through Energy Diversity & Efficiency 4
Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy Promote and execute a Blended Energy Carrier Strategy that incorporates the use of liquid fuels, electricity, and hydrogen Improved Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Fuel Infrastructure Reduced Petroleum Consumption Bio Fuels IC Engine and Transmission Improvements Cleaner HC Fuels, Renewable Fuels Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hydrogen Fuel Cell Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term Petroleum (Conventional and Alternative Sources) Bio and Synthetic Fuels Electricity & Hydrogen Reinvent the automobile through the design, development and validation of a production viable automotive fuel cell system Support the electrification of the vehicle (hybrid vehicles, plug in hybrids, and state of the art Electric Drive systems) Accelerate the exploitation of biomass with E85 and also bio-diesel capable propulsion systems Implement advanced propulsion technologies that optimize fuel efficiency and minimize emissions 5
Composite Effect of New Technologies (Ethanol, plug-ins and FCVs) Petroleum Displaced by Hydrogen Growth Petroleum Displaced by Recharge Petroleum Displaced by Ethanol Petroleum Consumed Petroleum Use 6
GM s Commitment to Biofuels Is about offering our customers a choice and The ability to fuel their vehicles with Low cost Renewable Sustainable Domestically Produced alternatives to petroleum 7
Key Points on Biofuels General Motors believes biofuels, including E85 ethanol, are the most significant near-term solution to offset rising vehicle energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas emissions Next-generation biofuels Provide a clean, renewable alternative to petroleum Will be commercialize in the 2010 2012 timeframe Sustainable biofuels made from non-grain sources could offset up to 35 percent of future vehicle energy demand by 2030, but the infrastructure needs to be in place for commercialization to be realized Making E85 a viable alternative fuel requires significant growth in the number of stations offering the fuel and pricing that accounts for the 25-30 percent reduction in fuel economy Feedstocks such as woody biomass, agricultural waste and purposefully grown energy crops are the most abundant and sustainable sources for next-generation biofuels 8
Billions of Gallons Biofuel Policy Goal: Provide 36 Billion Gallons of Renewable Fuel in 2022 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Renewable Fuels Standard Prior RFS PL 109-55 9
HOW DO WE GET THERE? 10
GM s Own Internal Study Closely Confirms Biomass Potential Annual Cellulosic Feedstock Supply (million dry tons) GM s University of Toronto study estimates the biomass potential at 0.625 1.2 B tons enough to produce 50 134 B gal of ethanol US DOE billion ton study estimates the annual biomass potential at 1.33 B tons by 2030 with an ethanol potential of 97.5 B gallons Also not a lack of biomass issue many sources including waste materials but purposely grown energy crops are critical It is a timing issue - based on technology improvements and implementation and economics Miscanthus 10-30 tons/acre 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Forest/Mill Residues MSW Agricultural Residues Energy Crops 0 US Con. US Opt. Canada Con. Canada Opt. 11
Technology is Game Changing Bushels/Acre Average U.S. Corn Yields Biotechnology Open-Pollinated Single-Cross Hybrids Double Cross Hybrid genetics & biotechnology have driven a five-fold increase in average U.S. corn yields since 1940 Slide from Ceres, Inc. the energy crop company Data Source: USDA 12
The Perfect Energy Crop High biomass: increased growth rate, photosynthetic efficiency, delayed flowering Rapid and cost-effective propagation Improved composition & structure: higher fuel yield per ton Stand establishment: cold germination, cold growth Disease and pest resistance Optimized architecture: dense planting, no lodging, easier harvest Salt, ph and Aluminum tolerance Perennial: multi-year crop, efficient nutrient use, high fossil energy ratio Deep roots: drought tolerance, nutrient uptake, carbon sequestration Slide from Ceres, Inc. the energy crop company 13
Low Cost Biomass Will Be Critical to Future Energy Production Regardless of Fuel Carrier Powertrain System Biomass is a feedstock for chemicals, electricity, and natural gas - not just liquid fuels It is essential to successfully grow energy crops at large scale Biotechnology improvements and agronomics are both key to improving yields Switchgrass High-Biomass Sorghum Miscanthus BIOMASS Energycane Short-Rotation Woody Crops ELECTRICITY NATURAL GAS LIQUID FUELS FINE CHEMICALS Co-fired or Thermo-chemical Anaerobic Digestion Thermochemical Biochemical Biochemical 14
Biofuels Are Moving up Technology Roadmap Gasification Synthetic Biorefinery Corn Cassava Sunlight and CO2 Algae Direct Synthesis? Cellulosic Bioethanol And we have only just begun Sugarcane Corn (Starches) Oil seeds Sweet Sorghum Cassava Jatropha Energy Cane Grasses, Wood Waste Renewable Diesel Green Gasoline Algae Microbes convert CO2 directly to fuel 1 st Generation Gen 1.5 2 nd Generation 3 rd Gen 4 th Gen 15
What is GM Doing Vehicle GM has built 4.5 M FFVs of 8 M on the road in the US In Brazil, FlexPower accounts for 94% of sales In Sweden, Saab leads the environment-friendly car segment with the BioPower 9-3 and 9-5, accounting for >80% of Saab new vehicle sales GM is offering 13 Flex Fuel models for 2010 GM is committed to having 50% of our models E85 capable by 2012 Infrastructure Partnering to increase the availability of E85 by promoting the expansion of E85 stations - NGA partnership a key step Currently, approximately 2,272 fueling stations in the US, or approximately 1.5 percent, offer E85, and more than 60 percent of those are concentrated in Midwest states 90% of registered FFVs do not have an E85 station in their zip code; nearly 50% don t have E85 in their county Technology Working with the best researchers in this area Consortiums (C2B2, ISU, U of M, and SD NSF, etc.) Universities (MSU, MTU, U of T, and Ben Gurion, etc.) Research Centers (JBEI, GLBRC, etc.) Partnering with the best companies (cutting edge technologies) around the globe (Mascoma, Coskata, etc.) 16
FFV and Station Gap 66% of E85 19% of FFVs 17
GM is committed to the rapid commercialization of The Next Generation of Ethanol GM has announced strategic alliances with two leading cellulosic ethanol start-ups, Coskata and Mascoma, that cover the biothermal and biochemical spectrum in advanced biofuel technology Partnership is about accelerating putting next generation of cellulosic ethanol on the market 18
Coskata s Leading Feedstock Flexible Ethanol Process Three Step Process is efficient, affordable, and feedstock flexible: 1. Incoming material is converted into a synthesis gas by gasification 2. The synthesis gas is fermented to ethanol using bacteria 3. Ethanol is separated and recovered 19 19
Coskata's Technology: Flexible and Affordable Able to use multiple non-food based products around the globe For example Wood Waste Grasses/Energy Crops Municipal and Industrial Wastes Will produce ethanol that will be competitive with gasoline, unsubsidized in the long term Yields over 100 gal/dry ton biomass of fuel grade ethanol Returns up to 7.7 times as much fossil energy as what is used to produce the fuel Uses less than one gallon of fresh water per gallon of ethanol Reduces green house gas emissions by up to 96% 20
Coskata Is Proceeding to Commercial Scale Currently Operating Under Construction In Development Horizon (Q1 2008) Integrated Processing Warrenville, IL Lighthouse (2009) Commercial Demonstration Madison, Pennsylvania Flagship - Commercial Facility Location: Southeast U.S. Integrated processing system with methane thermal reformer, multiple bioreactor designs, and distillation Minimum engineering scale (linear scale-up to commercial production) Front-end biomass gasifier Will test multiple commercial-scale bioreactor and separations designs 50-60 MM Gallons / yr Multiple gasifiers that process ~1500 dry tons/day of biomass Only fuel-grade ethanol production Startup of facility contingent on closing financing 21
Mascoma s Advanced Technology, Simplified Process Traditional Approach: Sequential Processing Acid/Base Supply Feedstock Supply Harsh Pretreatment Mascoma Approach: Consolidated Bioprocessing Feedstock Supply Neutralization Additive Conditioning Simple Pretreatment Enzyme Supply Hydrolysis Cellulose Fermentation Consolidated Bioprocessing (CBP) Xylose Fermentation Distillation & Storage Distillation & Storage 22
Mascoma s Path to Commercialization R&D Labs Developing robust CBP organisms and process to cost effectively convert non-food biomass into cellulosic ethanol Focusing on proprietary technology to integrate best in class pretreatment process with conversion technology minimizing operating and capital cost Rome, NY Pilot Plant One of largest cellulosic ethanol facilities currently under operation with a production capacity of up to 200,000 gallons/year Capable of running on numerous biomass feedstocks, including wood chips, grasses, sugar cane bagasse, and corn stover Drove GM car on cellulosic ethanol produced at Rome plant in Dec 2008 MI Commercial Plant Received over $40MM from Department of Energy and the State of MI Located in Chippewa County in the Upper Peninsula Designed to produce 40MM gallons/year using hardwoods as the primary feedstock 23
GM Sandia 90-Billion Gallon Biofuel Deployment Study Joint project conducted by GM and Sandia National Laboratories is the first true value-chain approach to future large-scale biofuels Feedstock Storage and Transport Conversion Distribution Can Large-Scale Biofuels Provide a Real and Sustainable Solution to Reducing Petroleum Dependence? 1. What must happen to grow ethanol production to 90B gal by 2030? 2. What is required for cellulosic ethanol to be cost competitive with gasoline? 3. What are the greenhouse gas, energy, and water footprints associated with this level of ethanol production? 4. What risks could impact cellulosic ethanol s production and competitiveness goals and how can we mitigate these? 24
Conversion Technologies Are Linked with Specific Feedstocks For each new plant constructed, the Biofuels Deployment Model (BDM) selects a feedstock/conversion pair resulting in lowest cost of ethanol Biomass Gasification Syngas Catalysts Ethanol Thermochem (e.g. Range Fuels) Biochem (e.g. Mascoma) Biomass Enzymes Sugars Microorganisms Ethanol Short Rotation Woody Crops Forest Residue BioThermal (e.g. Coskata) Herbaceous Ag Residue Inputs: Acres available Yield vs. time Years to maturity Costs Inputs: Resource supply Cost of harvest Biomass Gasification Syngas Microorganisms Ethanol Inputs: Acres available Yield vs. time % harvestable Costs Inputs: Acres planted Yield vs. time % harvestable Fertilizer makeup Cost of harvest Above linkages are only representative other combinations possible 25
Key Findings of 90B Gallons by 2030 RFS2 (1/5th of US gasoline from biofuels) could be achieved by successful deployment of cellulosic biofuels (in addition to corn ethanol), without displacing current crops grown Domestic investment for biofuels production is close to the investment required to sustain long-term domestic petroleum production Cellulosic biofuels can compete with oil at $90/bbl assuming reduction in total costs as technology matures Policy incentives such as carbon taxes, excise tax credits, and loan guarantees for cellulosic biofuels are important to mitigate the risk of oil market volatility Large scale cellulosic biofuel production can be achieved at/below current water consumption levels of petroleum fuels from on-shore oil production and refining 26
Importance of a Diesel Replacement Every year, the United States consumes approx. 135 billion gallons of gasoline and 60 billion gallons of diesel 9 billion gallons of ethanol production has been able to displace about 5% of US gasoline consumption Diesel displacement (predominantly from soy-based biodiesel today) has only reached about 500 million gallons less than 1% of US demand Biodiesel capacity is ~ 1.5 B gal/yr but that the industry is only operating at ~ 30% of capacity due to feedstock economics which highlight the need for other feedstocks, i.e. jatropha and algae Over the past 5 years (2002-2007), demand in diesel growth has tripled that of gasoline demand we are diesel short and long on gasoline (API) 27
Biofuels from Algae Advantages Fast growing suitable for nonagricultural land, does not compete with food crops Produces a variety of products biodiesel, renewable diesel & gasoline, ethanol, biogas, electricity, or nutraceuticals Yields up to 10,000 gal/acre/year versus 50 gal/acre/year for soybean CO2 benefits, minimal waste Challenges & Rollout Disadvantages Cost is currently a major prohibitive factor Algae is sensitive to the climatic conditions New technology primarily at pilot and demo scale - no large-scale commercial operations Photobioreactor (PBR) Open pond (racetrack) Need to reduce cost dramatically Better harvesting technologies and low-cost methods for extracting the oil Production of high-value by-products to improve economics Improvements required in bioreactor engineering and scalability Algae are easily grown in small volumes (i.e., laboratory systems), but not easily extrapolated into large-scale production volumes with consistent algae yields Some Leading Companies Include Solazyme, General Atomics, Synthetic Genomics, Sapphire, UOP, Solix, Algenol, Aurora, Aquaflow Bionomics, Origin Oil, Bionavitas, and Green Fuel 28
Turning Biomass into Bio-crude A number of hydrothermal, thermo-chemical (pyrolysis) processes can be used to turn mixed biomass/waste into a petroleum-like crude Drivers Increases the density of biomass, enabling more cost-effective transport Multiple biomass types can be processed together Is compatible with oil companies existing refining infrastructure Some Leading Companies Biomass Include UOP, Kior, etc. Bio-crude Barriers Processes are in R&D and pilot stage Consistent QC/standardization needed Tends to be capital intensive Large volumes needed before integrating into current refinery process Refined Products 29
New Advanced Petroleum-like Biofuels Are Emerging A number of technologies start from sugars or biomass and produce petroleum-like, fungible fuels (butanol, renewable diesel, green gasoline, other hydrocarbons etc.) The primary advantages of these fuels are that they can be used in current vehicles and are compatible with current infrastructure They significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions >75% Are highly consistent in product quality from one batch to another While still under development, they have the potential of being cost competitive with gasoline (~$45/barrel crude oil) The technologies are not yet mature but are moving towards initial commercialization in about the 2012 timeframe Continued advancements in biofuels technology could make advanced biofuels (renewable, low carbon jet fuel, renewable diesel, and green gasoline) a reality in the near future Making a renewable hydrocarbon fuel would be a significant win 30
Technologies Include Both Biological and Chemical Pathways The biological pathways use bacteria or yeast LS9 and Amyris are companies involved in the synthetic biology of biofuels Utilize the pathways found in nature Goal is to produce the ideal designer fuel but first introduction may not have the optimized pathways developed yet Scaling is an issue as the microbes must be hardened to thrive in industrial settings outside lab The chemical pathways use catalysis Virent, a leading company in this area, uses a solid-state catalyst to convert plant sugars into hydrocarbon molecules Their goal is to produce biogasoline for $1.25 per gal Process is capital and energy intensive 31
Summary The next 2-3 years will prove critical for advanced biofuels as pilot/demo plants become operational and first commercial plants are constructed Continued government support (mandates & incentives) are crucial to launch the biofuel ramp-up until commercial competitiveness takes over It is likely that we will see multiple fuels (and the pathways to make those fuels) emerge over the next several years - both ethanol and renewable hydrocarbons Competition is ultimately beneficial to the biofuels industry as it helps to create a sustained pull on feedstock, which is a critical part to the overall ramp-up and enables production of diesel-like advanced biofuels in addition to ethanol as a gasoline substitute, helping to restore refinery balance and drive down costs Integration of all steps in the value chain from crop development, production, harvest, and storage to fuel production, distribution, and use in vehicles is needed GM s biofuels strategy and actions have made GM the automotive leader in biofuels 32
Gas-Friendly to Gas-Free Thank You for Your Attention 33