Crop Yield & Production Trends in Western Canada R.J. Graf March 213
Crop Yield and Production Trends in Western Canada Data from Canada Grains Council (Statistics Canada). Examined crop production, area harvested and yield of canola and spring wheat from 1964/1965 to present. Actual yield results takes everything into account! YIELD GAINS = better genetics + improved agronomic practices + improved farm machinery + better pesticides + environment, etc. Major publicity on how much wheat yields need to increase in the next 2+ years often only the rate of genetic gain is mentioned. Yield increases represent much more than just genetic gain! What are the on-farm tends in western Canada? Graf 213 2
Data Collection: Statistics Canada Field Crop Reporting Series Data collection 6 times per year Area, Yield, Production: March, June, July, September, November. Stocks: December, March, July/August. Target Population All farms in Canada enumerated in Census of Agriculture. Not institutional, First Nations, farms in NWT, YT, NU & Atlantic. Cross-sectional design Sampling stratified into homogeneous groups: farm size, crop area, etc. Sample Size: March: 13, June: 25, July: 15, (212) Sept.: 11,7 Nov.: 29, Dec.: 1,5 Response is mandatory. Refusal rate = 8-9% In this study: Verified reported Yield by dividing Production / Harvested Area 1981/82 to Present: Difference usually within 3 kg/ha (about.5 bu/ac). Graf 213 3
1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/7 197/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/8 198/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Spring Wheat Yields by Province (1964/65-212/13) 35 Spring wheat yield, 1964/65-212/13 Graf 213 3 y = 3.926x + 154.6 y = 26.242x + 158. 25 y = 17.617x + 1437.2 2 15 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 4
1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/7 197/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/8 198/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Canola Yields by Province (1964/65-212/13) 25 Rapeseed / Canola yield, 1964/65-212/13 Graf 213 2 y = 24.19x + 729.67 y = 2.422x + 84.38 15 y = 13.242x + 92.86 1 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 5
Trend Line Analysis 1981/1982 good starting point. 1981: registration of Katepwa CWRS wheat. 1982: registration of Westar B. napus canola. Yield penalty associated with canola quality now overcome. Canola well adapted and agronomic systems established. Another break at 2/21. WGRF wheat investment (1994) starts producing varieties. Hybrid canola starting to be introduced not yet popular. Herbicide tolerant canola on about 5% of acres. Location of break is somewhat arbitrary and will affect results. Trend from 1981/1982 to present is most robust. What changed during the two periods? Graf 213 6
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Spring Wheat Yields by Province (1981/82-212/13) 35 Spring wheat yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 3 y = 39.47x + 1862.5 y = 26.874x + 1952 25 y = 22.266x + 1641.1 2 15 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 7
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Canola Yields by Province (1981/82-212/13) 25 Canola yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 2 y = 29.943x + 125.9 y = 24.51x + 1119.2 15 y = 17.15x + 168.2 1 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 8
Yield Increases over Time Based on exponential curve fitting Graf 213 AB SK MB PP 1981/82 to 212/13 Spring wheat 63% 42% 43% 43% Canola 8% 45% 66% 56% 1981/82 to 1999/ Spring wheat 4% 26% 14% 25% Canola 21% 5% 42% 18% 2/1 to 212/13 Spring wheat 42% 49% 17% 42% Canola 5% 6% 17% 36% 9
Yield Increases over Time Based on exponential curve fitting Graf 213 AB SK MB PP 1981/82 to 212/13 Spring wheat 63% 42% 43% 43% Canola 8% 45% 66% 56% 1981/82 to 1999/ Spring wheat 4% 26% 14% 25% Canola 21% 5% 42% 18% 2/1 to 212/13 Spring wheat 42% 49% 17% 42% Canola 5% 6% 17% 36% 1
Yield Increases over Time Based on exponential curve fitting Graf 213 AB SK MB PP 1981/82 to 212/13 Spring wheat 63% 42% 43% 43% Canola 8% 45% 66% 56% 1981/82 to 1999/ Spring wheat 4% 26% 14% 25% Canola 21% 5% 42% 18% 2/1 to 212/13 Spring wheat 42% 49% 17% 42% Canola 5% 6% 17% 36% Using percentage increase can be misleading Number of data points and type of curve fitting affects results. Yield of canola is lower than wheat. E.g.: a 5 increase in a penny stock represents a large % increase compared to a 5 increase in a high value stock. 11
Yield Increase per Year Based on exponential curve fitting Graf 213 AB SK MB PP 1981/82 to 212/13 Spring wheat 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% Canola 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1981/82 to 1999/ Spring wheat 1.9% 1.3%.7% 1.3% Canola 1.1%.3% 2.%.9% 2/1 to 212/13 Spring wheat 3.% 3.4% 1.3% 2.9% Canola 3.4% 4.% 1.3% 2.6% 12
Yield Increase per Year Based on exponential curve fitting Graf 213 AB SK MB PP 1981/82 to 212/13 Spring wheat 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% Canola 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1981/82 to 1999/ Spring wheat 1.9% 1.3%.7% 1.3% Canola 1.1%.3% 2.%.9% 2/1 to 212/13 Spring wheat 3.% 3.4% 1.3% 2.9% Canola 3.4% 4.% 1.3% 2.6% 13
Yield Increase per Year Based on exponential curve fitting Graf 213 AB SK MB PP 1981/82 to 212/13 Spring wheat 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% Canola 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1981/82 to 1999/ Spring wheat 1.9% 1.3%.7% 1.3% Canola 1.1%.3% 2.%.9% 2/1 to 212/13 Spring wheat 3.% 3.4% 1.3% 2.9% Canola 3.4% 4.% 1.3% 2.6% Remember that using percentage increase can be misleading 14
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) PP Spring Wheat and Canola Yield (1981/82 212/13) 35 Prairie province spring wheat and canola yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 3 y = 26.284x + 1825.4 25 2 y = 21.28x + 181.9 15 PP Wheat Yield PP Canola Yield Linear (PP Wheat Yield) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 For this time period (1981/82-212/13): Spring wheat yields increased at a rate of 26.3 kg/ha (.39 bu/ac) per year. Canola yields increased at a rate of 21.2 kg/ha (.38 bu/ac) per year. Linear (PP Canola Yield) 15
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Canola Yield (% Wheat) PP Canola Yield relative to Spring Wheat (1981/82-212/13) 1 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 9 8 7 y =.1745x + 6.64 6 5 4 Based on this method of calculation, canola yields increased.17% per year faster than spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 3 2 1 16
Comments: Spring Wheat 1981/1982 to 1999/2 versus 2/21 to present: What influenced the rate of gain? What was the yield gain per dollar invested? 211/12: Total Wheat Investment = approx. $25 Million. Spring Wheat: WGRF supported varieties start be registered. First CWRS varieties with ND germplasm (McKenzie, Superb, etc.) First semi-dwarf CWRS varieties (Superb, CDC Go, etc.) Wheat midge resistance introduced (Unity, Goodeve, etc.) FHB resistance breeding reduced rate of progress. Graf 213 Source: AAFC 17
Comments: Canola 1981/1982 to 1999/2 versus 2/21 to present: What influenced the rate of gain? What was the yield gain per dollar invested? 211/12: Total Canola Investment = approx. $8 Million. Canola: Excellent weed control with herbicide resistance. Hybrids introduced and eventually predominate. Lower yielding B. rapa (Polish canola) phased out. Increased investment by private industry. Graf 213 Source: CSTA 18
Canola Grown and Managed in Preference to Wheat Given that: The input costs of canola (not just seed) are higher than wheat. There is good potential for excellent net returns from canola. The result has been: Better (best?) management practices are applied to canola. Canola is usually seeded on the best land available. As canola acreage increases the next best available land is likely to be diverted away from wheat (and other crops). Wheat has become a secondary crop that does not necessarily receive the same care as canola. This trend also reduced the observed rate of yield gain in wheat. Graf 213 19
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Spring Wheat Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 16 Graf 213 25 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 2 y = -185.67x + 22197 1 15 8 1 5 For this time period, for every hectare taken out of spring wheat production, total spring wheat production was reduced by 1.3 tonnes. (Average spring wheat yield over period = 2.22 t/ha) y = -179.37x + 11583 6 4 2 2
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Canola Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 16 Graf 213 25 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 2 For this time period, for every added hectare of harvested canola, total canola production increased by 2.8 tonnes. (Average canola yield over period = 1.5 t/ha) 1 15 8 1 y = 162.21x + 1651.6 6 y = 336.85x + 924.73 4 5 2 21
Have Things Changed Since 2/1? 1981/82 to 1999/: Average spring wheat yield = 2.1 t/ha (31.3 bu/ac). Rate of yield increase = 1.25% per year. Average canola yield = 1.3 t/ha (23.2 bu/ac). Rate of yield increase =.92% per year. 2/1 to 212/13: Average spring wheat yield = 2.47 t/ha (36.7 bu/ac). Rate of yield increase = 2.94% per year (1.8 bu/ac per year). Average canola yield = 1.37 t/ha (29.9 bu/ac). Rate of yield increase = 2.62% per year (.78 bu/ac per year). Plant breeding investment required to sustain current overall rates of yield increase (based on 211/12 investments) Wheat: $25 Million per year. Canola: $8 Million per year. Graf 213 22
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) PP Spring Wheat and Canola Yield (2/1 212/13) 35 Prairie province spring wheat and canola yield, 2/1-212/13 Graf 213 3 y = 68.137x + 1996.4 25 2 y = 41.59x + 1349.9 15 PP Wheat Yield PP Canola Yield Linear (PP Wheat Yield) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 For this time period (2/1 212/13): Spring wheat yields increased at a rate of 68.1 kg/ha (1.1 bu/ac) per year. Canola yields increased at a rate of 41.5 kg/ha (.74 bu/ac) per year. Linear (PP Canola Yield) 23
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Canola Yield (% Wheat) PP Canola Yield relative to Spring Wheat (2/1 212/13) 1 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 2/1-212/13 Graf 213 9 8 7 y = -.1928x + 67.921 6 5 4 Based on this method of calculation, canola yields decreased.19% per year relative to spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 3 2 1 24
23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 Yield (kg/ha) Selective Data Mining: S. Wheat and Canola Yield (23/4 211/12) 35 Prairie province spring wheat and canola yield, 23/4-211/12 Graf 213 3 y = 58.561x + 2298 25 2 y = 52.925x + 1479.5 15 PP Wheat Yield PP Canola Yield Linear (PP Wheat Yield) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 For this time period (23/4 211/12): Spring wheat yields increased at a rate of 58.6 kg/ha (.86 bu/ac) per year. Canola yields increased at a rate of 52.9 kg/ha (.94 bu/ac) per year. Linear (PP Canola Yield) 25
23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 Canola Yield (% Wheat) Selective Data Mining: Canola relative to S. Wheat (23/4 211/12) 1 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 23/4-211/12 Graf 213 9 8 7 y =.5364x + 64.562 6 5 4 By doing some cherry-picking of the data, this trend line indicates that canola yields increased.54% faster than spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 3 2 1 26
Questions to Ponder While yield net returns ultimately pay the bills What is disease resistance worth vs. the cost of fungicides? KVD reduced progress in wheat effects of removal just starting. Wheat yield gains were made with current registration system. More difficult to determine differences with less testing. Can t tell the difference? Mediocrity increases. Is there a problem that needs fixing? Yield may increase faster with fewer registration impediments. Every trait added reduces effective population size. What are some of these impediments? Graf 213 27
A Double-Edged Sword Fewer registration impediments may mean faster progress: Every trait added reduces effective population size. What are some of these impediments? Graf 213 Disease resistance: - Stem rust? - Leaf rust? - Stripe rust? - FHB? - Bunt? - Loose smut? - Leaf spots? Agronomics: - Early maturity? - Sprouting tolerance? Pest resistance: - Wheat stem sawfly? - Wheat midge? - Wheat curl mite? Quality: - Sprouting resistance? - Protein content? - Milling yield? - Consistency? Every trait added will slow down progress in other traits. What are the benefits/costs for these and other traits? Is the added cost of fungicides, potential grade loss, etc. offset by higher yields? 28
A Few Basic Conclusions Spring wheat yields have not stagnated in western Canada. On-farm spring wheat and canola yields have increased substantially, particularly since 2/1. Observed rates of on-farm yield increase were faster from 2/1 212/13 than 1981/82 1999/ for both crops. 1981/82 1999/: S. wheat yields increased faster than canola. Since 2/1: Rate of canola yield increase is faster than wheat. Environment plays a large role in observing yield potential. Greater breeding investment resulted in higher rates of progress. The registration system for wheat has not been a major bottleneck to the introduction of superior genetics. Graf 213 29
Thank You Dr. Robert Graf Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada Lethbridge Research Centre 543-1 st Avenue South P.O. Box 3 Lethbridge, AB T1J 4B1 Tel.: 43-317-2258 E-Mail: robert.graf@agr.gc.ca 3
Supplementary Information 31
1981/82-212/13 complete set of graphs 32
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Spring Wheat Yields by Province (1981/82-212/13) 35 Spring wheat yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 3 y = 39.47x + 1862.5 y = 26.874x + 1952 25 y = 22.266x + 1641.1 2 15 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 33
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Canola Yields by Province (1981/82-212/13) 25 Canola yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 2 y = 29.943x + 125.9 y = 24.51x + 1119.2 15 y = 17.15x + 168.2 1 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 34
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) PP Spring Wheat and Canola Yield (1981/82-212/13) 35 Prairie province spring wheat and canola yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 3 y = 26.284x + 1825.4 25 2 y = 21.28x + 181.9 15 PP Wheat Yield PP Canola Yield Linear (PP Wheat Yield) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 For this time period (1981/82 212/13): Spring wheat yields increased at a rate of 26.3 kg/ha (.39 bu/ac) per year. Canola yields increased at a rate of 21.2 kg/ha (.38 bu/ac) per year. Linear (PP Canola Yield) 35
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Canola Yield (% Wheat) PP Canola Yield relative to Spring Wheat (1981/82-212/13) 1 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 1981/82-212/13 Graf 213 9 8 7 y =.1745x + 6.64 6 5 4 Based on this method of calculation, canola yields increased.17% per year faster than spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 3 2 1 36
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Spring Wheat Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 16 Graf 213 25 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 2 y = -185.67x + 22197 1 15 8 1 5 For this time period, for every hectare taken out of spring wheat production, total wheat production was reduced by 1.3 tonnes. (Average spring wheat yield over period = 2.22 t/ha) y = -179.37x + 11583 6 4 2 37
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Canola Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 16 Graf 213 25 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 2 For this time period, for every added hectare of harvested canola, total canola production increased by 2.8 tonnes. (Average canola yield over period = 1.5 t/ha) 1 15 8 1 y = 162.21x + 1651.6 6 y = 336.85x + 924.73 4 5 2 38
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) 3 PP Spring Wheat & Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat & Canola 16 Graf 213 25 2 14 12 1 Wheat Production Canola Production Wheat Area Canola Area Linear (Wheat Production) Linear (Canola Production) Linear (Wheat Area) Linear (Canola Area) 15 8 1 6 4 5 2 39
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) AB Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 8 Alberta: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 4 Graf 213 7 6 y = 55.796x + 565.3 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 y = -16.232x + 266.3 2 3 15 2 1 1 5 4
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) AB Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 8 Alberta: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 y = 4.957x + 812.24 2 3 y = 19.97x + 546.18 15 2 1 1 5 41
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) SK Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 16 Saskatchewan: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 9 Graf 213 14 12 8 7 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 1 6 8 y = -23.23x + 1329 5 4 6 4 y = -131.85x + 6926.5 3 2 2 1 42
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) SK Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 16 Saskatchewan: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 9 Graf 213 14 12 8 7 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 1 6 5 8 4 6 y = 88.352x + 582.3 3 4 y = 16.36x + 21.49 2 2 1 43
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) MB Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 8 Manitoba: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 y = -38.241x + 412.6 2 3 15 2 y = -31.295x + 1996.2 1 1 5 44
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) MB Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-212/13) 8 Manitoba: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 2 3 15 2 y = 32.95x + 257.3 y = 66.517x + 168.6 1 1 5 45
1981/82 1999/ complete set of graphs 46
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Yield (kg/ha) Spring Wheat Yields by Province (1981/82 1999/) 3 Spring wheat yield, 1981/82-1999/ Graf 213 y = 42.681x + 1859.5 25 y = 15.386x + 249. 2 y = 23.161x + 1661.6 15 1 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 47
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Yield (kg/ha) Canola Yields by Province (1981/82 1999/) 18 Canola yield, 1981/82-1999/ Graf 213 16 y = 26.396x + 199.9 14 y = 13.914x + 1173.4 12 y = 3.4386x + 123.2 1 8 6 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 4 2 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 48
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Yield (kg/ha) PP Spring Wheat and Canola Yield (1981/82 1999/) 3 Prairie province spring wheat and canola yield, 1981/82-1999/ Graf 213 25 y = 25.84x + 1854.1 2 15 y = 12.113x + 1167.9 PP Wheat Yield PP Canola Yield 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 For this time period (1981/82 1999/): Spring wheat yields increased at a rate of 25.8 kg/ha (.38 bu/ac) per year. Canola yields increased at a rate of 12.1 kg/ha (.22 bu/ac) per year. Linear (PP Wheat Yield) Linear (PP Canola Yield) 49
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Canola Yield (% Wheat) PP Canola Yield relative to Spring Wheat (1981/82 1999/) 1 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 1981/82-1999/ Graf 213 9 8 7 6 y = -.2175x + 63.65 5 4 3 Based on this method of calculation, canola yields decreased.22% per year relative to spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 2 1 5
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Spring Wheat Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 16 Graf 213 25 2 y = -69.639x + 21483 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 1 y = -151.58x + 1141 15 8 6 1 For this time period, for every hectare taken out of spring wheat production, total spring wheat production was reduced by.46 tonnes. (Average spring wheat yield over period = 2.1 t/ha) 4 5 2 51
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Canola Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 16 Graf 213 25 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 2 For this time period, for every added hectare of harvested canola, total canola production increased by 1.54 tonnes (Average canola yield over period = 1.3 t/ha) 1 15 8 6 1 y = 198.86x + 1459.1 4 5 y = 36.72x + 1422.5 2 52
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) 3 PP Spring Wheat & Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82-1999/) Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat & Canola 16 Graf 213 25 2 14 12 1 Wheat Production Canola Production Wheat Area Canola Area Linear (Wheat Production) Linear (Canola Production) Linear (Wheat Area) Linear (Canola Area) 15 8 1 6 4 5 2 53
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) AB Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) Alberta: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat Graf 213 8 4 7 y = 83.79x + 494.3 35 Production Area Linear (Production) 6 3 Linear (Area) 5 25 y = -1.533x + 2638.4 4 2 3 15 2 1 1 5 54
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) AB Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) 8 Alberta: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 y = 52.73x + 761 2 3 15 2 y = 89.823x + 818.85 1 1 5 55
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) SK Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) Saskatchewan: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat Graf 213 16 9 14 8 Production Area 12 y = -144.54x + 12699 7 Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 6 1 y = -125.99x + 696.4 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 56
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) SK Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) 16 Saskatchewan: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 9 Graf 213 14 12 8 7 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 1 6 5 8 4 6 3 4 y = 14.39x + 56.92 2 2 y = 14.66x + 54.24 1 57
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) MB Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) 8 Manitoba: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 y = -8.8118x + 3843.2 2 3 y = -15.58x + 1856.4 15 2 1 1 5 58
1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9 199/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/ Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) MB Canola: Production & Harvested Area (1981/82 1999/) 8 Manitoba: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 2 3 15 2 1 y = 41.77x + 191.16 1 y = 76.241x + 99.412 5 59
2/1-212/13 complete set of graphs 6
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Spring Wheat Yields by Province (2/1 212/13) 35 Spring wheat yield, 2/1-212/13 Graf 213 y = 78.22x + 23. 3 y = 15.386x + 249. 25 y = 68.681x + 1696.2 2 15 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 61
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) Canola Yields by Province (2/1 212/13) 25 Canola yield, 2/1-212/13 Graf 213 y = 58.791x + 1411.5 2 y = 23.626x + 1573.1 y = 57.143x + 1115.4 15 1 AB MB SK Linear (AB) Linear (MB) Linear (SK) 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 62
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Yield (kg/ha) PP Spring Wheat and Canola Yield (2/1 212/13) 35 Prairie province spring wheat and canola yield, 2/1-212/13 Graf 213 3 y = 68.137x + 1996.4 25 2 y = 41.59x + 1349.9 15 PP Wheat Yield PP Canola Yield Linear (PP Wheat Yield) 1 5 Kg/Ha Bu/ac wheat canola 5 7 9 1 15 18 15 22 27 2 3 36 25 37 45 3 45 54 35 52 62 4 59 71 For this time period (2/1 212/13): Spring wheat yields increased at a rate of 68.1 kg/ha (1.1 bu/ac) per year. Canola yields increased at a rate of 41.5 kg/ha (.74 bu/ac) per year. Linear (PP Canola Yield) 63
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Canola Yield (% Wheat) PP Canola Yield relative to Spring Wheat (2/1 212/13) 1 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 2/1-212/13 Graf 213 9 8 7 y = -.1928x + 67.921 6 5 4 Based on this method of calculation, canola yields decreased.19% per year relative to spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 3 2 1 64
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 Canola Yield (% Wheat) PP Canola Yield relative to Spring Wheat (2/1 211/12) 1 9 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 2/1-211/12 This graph removes the influence of 212/13 Graf 213 8 7 y =.2424x + 65.89 6 5 4 By removing the influence of the relatively poor canola yields in 212/13, the trend line indicates that canola yields increased.24% faster than spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 3 2 1 65
23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 Canola Yield (% Wheat) PP Canola Yield relative to Spring Wheat (23/4 211/12) 1 9 Prairie canola yield as a percent of wheat yield, 23/4-211/12 This graph removes the influence of 2/1, 21/2, 22/3 and 212/13 Graf 213 8 7 y =.5364x + 64.562 6 5 4 By doing some cherry-picking of the data, this trend line indicates that canola yields increased.54% faster than spring wheat. Canola Yield Linear (Canola Yield) 3 2 1 66
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Spring Wheat Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 16 Graf 213 25 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 2 y = 196.43x + 15342 1 15 8 1 5 y = -15.93x + 752.3 For this time period, despite an average reduction of 15,93 ha/yr in harvested spring wheat area, total spring wheat production rose by 196,43 tonnes/yr. (Average spring wheat yield over period = 2.47 t/ha) 6 4 2 67
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) PP Canola Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) 3 Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 16 Graf 213 25 14 12 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 2 For this time period, for every added hectare of harvested canola, total canola production increased by 2.25 tonnes. (Average canola yield over period = 1.67 t/ha) 1 15 8 y = 338.6x + 3248.4 6 1 y = 759.43x + 479.6 4 5 2 68
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) 3 PP Spring Wheat & Canola: Production & Harvested Area (2/1-212/13) Prairie Provinces: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat & Canola 16 Graf 213 25 2 14 12 1 Wheat Production Canola Production Wheat Area Canola Area Linear (Wheat Production) Linear (Canola Production) Linear (Wheat Area) Linear (Canola Area) 15 8 1 6 4 5 2 69
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) AB Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) Alberta: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat Graf 213 8 4 7 y = 225.95x + 479 35 Production Area Linear (Production) 6 3 Linear (Area) 5 25 y = 24.388x + 216.4 4 2 3 15 2 1 1 5 7
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) AB Canola: Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) 8 Alberta: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 y = 114.8x + 976.68 25 4 2 3 y = 292.2x + 1257.1 15 2 1 1 5 71
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) SK Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) 16 Saskatchewan: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 9 Graf 213 14 12 8 7 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 1 6 8 y = 42.68x + 769.9 5 4 6 4 y = -85.925x + 443.7 3 2 2 1 72
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) SK Canola: Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) 16 Saskatchewan: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 9 Graf 213 14 12 8 7 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 1 6 5 8 6 y = 18.6x + 1494.8 y = 383.59x + 1553.6 4 3 4 2 2 1 73
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) MB Spring Wheat: Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) 8 Manitoba: Total Production and Harvested Area - Spring Wheat 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 2 3 y = -72.21x + 3562.9 15 2 y = -44.394x + 146.2 1 1 5 74
2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Production (tonnes x 1) Harvested Area (Ha x 1) MB Canola: Production & Harvested Area (2/1 212/13) 8 Manitoba: Total Production and Harvested Area - Canola 4 Graf 213 7 6 35 3 Production Area Linear (Production) Linear (Area) 5 25 4 2 3 y = 43.191x + 776.92 15 2 y = 83.823x + 1268.9 1 1 5 75