EU wide energy scenarios until 2050 generated with the TIMES model Rainer Friedrich, Markus Blesl Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Universität Stuttgart EMEP CLRTAP TFIAM Dublin, May 17-19
The scenario technique A scenario is the description of a possible, consistent future development of a system (e.g. the energy system) The purposes of scenarios are the concretion and quantification of different ideas about the future development of technical systems and the consequences of these conceptions the analysis of changes in the analysed system caused by changed exogenous parameters
ETSAP IEA (International Energy Agency) Implementing Agreements Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) Implementing Agreement Implementing Agreement Operating Agent www.etsap.org Technology oriented analysis of energy system models with focus on greenhouse gas abatement strategies: - Analysis of national and multinational strategies - Technology data review Outreach - Model development (MARKAL, TIMES)
The PanEU TIMES Model Characteristics (I) Describes the chain from primary energy and energy conversion to demand of energy services Determines market allocations of technologies by minimizing total costs, however obeying constraints (minimum or maximum thresholds, maximum potentials and growth,..) 30 region model (EU 27 + IS, NO, CH) Modelling horizon 2000 2050 12 time slices (4 seasonal, 3 day level) Detailed power generation sector (CO 2 sequestration and capture options, CHP included) based on IER power plant database with 25,000 units included Country specific differences for characterisation of new power plants Country specific load curves based on UTCE statistics
Regions in the Pan-EU model and planned electricity interconnection extensions European Priority Projects P in Year MW DE DK 500 2012 500 MW 1400 MW 600 MW 1320 MW 600 MW 1400 MW 1200 MW 700 MW 1800 MW 950 MW 600 MW 500 MW 700 MW 800 MW 110 MW 900 MW 1800 MW 600 MW 1000 MW 250 MW AT CZ 900 2009 IT SI 800 2011 PL LT 1000 2013 ES FR 1200 2009 BE FR 400 2015 NL UK 1320 2010 2330 MW 200 MW
Matching CO 2 sources and sinks cost potential curve for CO 2 transport and storage for Europe emission sources and sinks Transport and storage costs [Euro/tCO2] 30 25 20 15 10 5 transport and storage costs Other not spec. Utsira Aquifer onshore Aquifer offshore Hydrocarbon onshore Hydrocarbon offshore Coal seam / ECBM 0 1 301 601 901 1201 1501 Cumulated annual CO 2 transport and storage quantity [Mt]
Nuclear power plants in Europe Phase out decision Germany, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, New nuclear power plants France, UK, Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Finland, Lithuania, Slovenia, Poland Italy
Electricity generation from renewables according to current EU-27+3 RES policies 1600 Tide + Wave Annual Electricity Production [TWh] 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass solid Biomass gas / liquid Waste Solarthermal Photovoltaic Geothermal Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro small + large
Potentials of electricity generation from renewables Annual Electricity Production [TWh] 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Tide + Wave Biomass solid Biomass gas / liquid Waste Solarthermal Photovoltaic Geothermal Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro small + large
Invest costs of new non renewable power plants in TIMES PanEU (excerpt) from NEEDS and OECD Spec. invest costs [ 2007/kW] 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Hard coal condens. PP (800 MW) Hard coal condens. PP (800 MW), 700 C Hard coal CCS (740MW) Lignite condens. PP (1050MW) Lignite condens. PP (700 C) (1050MW) Lignite CCS (970MW) Natural gas combined cycle (500MW) EPR nuclear power 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Invest costs of new renewable power plants in TIMES PanEU (excerpt) 3500 Spec. invest costs [ 2007/kW] 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Wind turbine onshore Wind turbine offshore class. 1 Wind turbine offshore class 2 Wind turbine offshore class 3 Wind turbine offshore class 4 Photovoltaic roof panel Photovoltaic plant size 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
General assumptions EU27 2007 2030 2050 Population [Mio.] GDP [Bill. 2000 ] Oil price [US$ 2007 /bbl] Other assumptions 495.3 493.3 471.7 - Average annual growth 2010-2050: 1.8% - Regional differences among countries 69 75 78 - Restricted use of nuclear power - Implementation of EU biofuel directive
Definition of scenarios -Business as usual case -CO 2 emission reduction ETS-Sectors (related to 2005): -21 % until 2020-55 % until 2050 (1,74%/a) -Current national pograms for promoting/subsidizing renewable energies continue (which leads to 40% CO2 reduction 1990-2050) - CO 2 emission reduction ETS-Sectors (related to 2005): -31.5 % until 2020-1.74 % p.a. after 2030 -Overall reduction of greenhause gases (related to 1990): -71 % until 2050
Transport final energy conumption by fuel (EU27), goods transport, air traffic increasing 18000 Transport FEC [PJ] 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Electricity Natural Gas Biogas Hydrogen (g) Hydrogen (l) Methanol fossil Methanol bio Dimethyleter fossil Dimethyleter bio FT-Diesel fossil FT-Diesel bio Ethanol Biodiesel Heavy fuel oil Kerosene LPG Gasoline Diesel 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Industry Processes (production of iron & steel, cement, paper and chemicals) cause highest energy demand Step 1: improve efficiency, use waste heat Step 2: change processes (e.g. electric arc furnace for iron & steel, dry processes for clincer production); from 2030 on CCS leads to increasing electricity demand
Households and Trade and Commerce Increasing electricity demand due to increasing use of electric and electronic devices and more air conditioning Insulation leads to decreasing demand for heating Reference: more gas, wood, solar thermal Climate scenario: further enhanced insulation; use of electric and gas heat pumps; to less extent use of heat from decentralised CHP plants using gas
Electricity generation in the EU-27 Net electricity generation [TWh] 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Others / Waste non-ren. Other Renewables Biomass / Waste ren. Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural gas Oil 0 Statistic Lignite Coal 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Final energy consumption (EU27) Total final energy consumption [PJ] 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Others (Methanol, Hydrogen) Waste Renewables Heat Electricity Gas 0 Statistic 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Petroleum products Coal
Comparison of TIMES PanEU and * * data according to European Energy and Transport, Trends to 2030 - Update 2007 (EC 2008)
Electricity generation net [TWh] Electricity generation in the EU-27 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 4408 4273 4078 3839 3568 3158 3169 3144 3225 3138 Hydro, Wind, Other Thermal power plants (incl. Biomass) Nuclear Power TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Transport FEC by mode (EU27) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU Transport FEC [PJ] Inland Navigation Aviation Trains Trucks Public Road Transport Private Cars and Motorcycles 2000 2010 2020 2030
Electricity capacity in Germany Electricity capacity net [GW] 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 166 144 156 149 146 157 154 161 166 158 Other not spec. Biomass / Waste Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear 0 TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU TIMES PanEU Natural gas Oil Coal 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Conclusions The assumptions made strongly influence the scenario results. It is thus essential to describe the assumptions and to make sensitivity analyses to find out how robust the results are. Improving energy efficiency is a key element for climate and health protection. The future price of gas and the availability of CCS - determines, whether gas (in the reference case without CCS) or coal is used; lignite with CCS - is further used in countries with lignite resources. CO2 reduction is especially expansive in the transport sector. Thus only in the climate scenario a major shift to BTL and electricity is occurring. Water, wind, wood, biogas are the least expensive renewables. Depending on the development of PV costs solar thermal (more likely) or PV rank next. The share of BTL and electricity in transport depends on the ambition of the climate objective and the progress in battery development.