Global Perspectives on SMRs Developing Countries Expectations Dr Atam Rao Head Nuclear Power Technology Development Jun 18, 2010 The 4 th Annual Asia-Pacific Nuclear Energy Forum on Small and Medium Reactors (SMRs): Benefits and Challenges Friday, June 18, and Saturday, June 19, 2010, in Berkeley, CA International Atomic Energy Agency
Outline Developing country expectations Evolution of plant designs Looking at the market global or local Global energy needs Economic variation in country markets Share of GDP invested in energy Historical trends on right sizing Conclusions No one solution fits all Can all the if s be made true - quickly
Developing country expectations Every other year the general conference issues resolution on SMR s Comprehensive study on user requirements Proven technology Licensing requirements Economics Plant performance Assurance of supply Proliferation resistance and safety
User Countries 50 developing countries excluding China/India
Evolution of PWR s 70 s to now to? 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Normalized Quantities (per MWe, relative to 1970s PWR) Redundancy Maintainability Safety Optimization Simplification Passive Safety 1 0.8 Concrete Volume Steel Mass Building Volume 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 PWR, 1970s; 1000 MW(e) PWR, active; 1600 MW(e) PWR, passive; 1120 MW(e)
Latest passive designs had major simplification - what systems/functions (~100) will be eliminated? - will that impact availability, maintainability? Comparison of Building Volumes 50% Fewer Valves 35% Fewer Pumps 80% Less Pipe 45% Less 85% Less Seismic Building Cable Volume
Evolution of BWR s similar to PWR s Normalized Quantities (per MWe, relative to 1970s PWR) 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 Redundancy Maintainability Safety Optimization Simplification Passive Safety 1.2 1 Concrete Volume Steel Mass Building Volume 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 BWR, 1970s; 1000 MW(e) BWR, active; 1380 MW(e) BWR, passive; 1500 MW(e)
50 years of BWR evolution simplification - a fairly simple integral design for many decades! Dresden 1 KRB Oyster Creek ABWR ESBWR Dresden 2 Gen III Gen III+
Trends in advanced plant design Increase plant availability Use proven, reliable components and materials Design for maintenance online or during outage Add redundancy for crucial components Reduce plant components simplify Use modern plant control systems Use fewer and larger components Combine or eliminate functions of systems Rely on economy of scale Design for easier & shorter construction Increased use of structural and system modules Complete and standardized designs with pre-licensing Build safety into the design Increased margins and use of lessons learned Increase redundancy and diversity or use passive systems Relying on 50 years of experience
Evolution of Technology (Variation of material quantities over time) 3.50 3.00 2.50 Normalized quantities (per MW e, relative to 1970s PWR) 1970s PWR: -Building volume, total = 336 m 3 /MW e -Steel mass, total = 37 t/mw e -Concrete volume, total = 75 m 3 /MW e 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 PWR, 1970s; 1000 MW(e) PWR, active; 1600 MW(e) PWR, passive; 1120 MW(e) BWR, 1970s; 1000 MW(e) BWR, active; 1380 MW(e) BWR, passive; 1500 MW(e) PBMR; 400 MW(e) GT-MHR; 286 MW(e) AHTR-IT; 1235 MW(e) Building volume, non-nuclear Steel mass, non-nuclear Concrete volume, non-nuclear Building volume, nuclear Steel mass, nuclear Concrete volume, nuclear N.B. The passive PWR data are estimates based on available data. Values for the entire plant are plotted as nuclear in lieu of a nuclear and nonnuclear breakdown. P.F. Peterson et al. Metal and concrete inputs for several nuclear power plants ; Westinghouse & estimates
Modular Construction has been around for many decades just more of it now 350 modules - 150 Structural 200 Mechanical Haiyang
Several parts of a plant are similar for all designs Nuclear Auxiliary Building Waste Building Fuel Building Reactor Building Safety Building 1 Diesel Building 3+4 Safety Building 2+3 Safety Building 4 Diesel Building 1+2 Office Building Access Building C.I. Electrical Building Turbine Building
Total Primary Energy Demand Projections (million metric tons oil equivalent: Ref. WSJ Europe Nov 13, 09 based on OECD/IEA) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 EU US China India ASEAN 1000 500 0 1990 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Malaysia
Variation in Electricity Tariffs
Electricity Tariffs for Different Sources - India
Generation Costs and Tariffs Electricity generation costs for different options vary considerably across countries Economic evaluations need to consider generation, transmission and other costs Subsidies effect the costs (tariffs) paid by the consumers
Share of total energy investment by region (as percent of annual GDP) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
Trends in installed unit capacity (United States of America) Source: PRIS Database; accessed May 2010
Trends in installed unit capacity (France) Source: PRIS Database; accessed May 2010
Trends in installed unit capacity (Japan) Source: PRIS Database; accessed May 2010
Trends in installed unit capacity (Central and Eastern Europe) N.B. Only the following countries in this region had reactors which operated: -ARMENIA -BULGARIA -CZECH REPUBLIC -HUNGARY -LITHUANIA, REPUBLIC OF -ROMANIA -RUSSIAN FEDERATION -SLOVAK REPUBLIC -SLOVENIA -UKRAINE Source: PRIS Database; accessed May 2010
What does historical data show? Small reactors (<300 Mwe) are small fraction Except India Medium (< 700 MWe) reactors are significant Within 5 years countries trend to bigger sizes Except for Eastern Europe (15yrs) & India (35yrs)
Certification in US how long?
Plants under construction by size
Plants under construction by country
Plants under construction by model Standardization?
India s 500 MWe Fast Ractor-Commissioning 2011 Safety Vessel ( 13.5 m, H 13.5 m,160 t) Lowered into Reactor Vault (June 2008)
Nuclear reactors planned & proposed by 2030 Reactors planned and proposed by 2030 Slovenia (1) Slovakia (1) Netherlands (1) Korea, Democratic People's Republic (1) Israel (1) Finland (1) Jordan (1) Armenia (1) Mexico (2) Lithuania (2) Hungary (2) Czech Republic (2) Bangladesh (2) France (2) Egypt (2) Bulgaria (2) Switzerland (3) Turkey (3) Romania (3) Iran (3) Argentina (3) Pakistan (4) Kazakhstan (4) Belarus (4) Brazil (5) Thailand (6) Indonesia (6) Poland (6) Korea, Republic of (6) Canada (7) Italy (10) Vietnam (10) United Kingdom (10) Japan (13) United Arab Emirates (14) Ukraine (22) South Africa (27) United States of America (32) Russia (45) India (60) China (154) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Installed capacity [GW e ] Source: WNA World Nuclear Reactors and Uranium Requirements; accessed May 2010
Other significant factors to consider Nuclear power is not only option Energy diversity and energy independence Number of sites are limited Business arrangements make plants possible BOOT, Regulation Countries generally look for other benefits Upgrading country technical capability Would you do business there? Would they do business with you?
Summary and conclusions 55 plants under construction give many different signals for the future Future will have many different options right size to address global energy needs? Each country will adopt different strategies Build own operate is here Turkey, UAE, Localization will play a major role Many suppliers aiming for big portions of market Many users already have small plants share!