The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources and environment

J. Geogr. Sci. 2010, 20(1): 17-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11442-010-0017-0 2010 Science in China Press Springer-Verlag The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources and environment CHEN Mingxing 1, LU Dadao 1, * ZHA Liangsong 2 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, Anhui, China Abstract: This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the urbanization level in China in terms of four aspects of urbanization connotation: population, economy, society, and land. A comprehensive measurement is carried out for the Chinese urbanization between 1981 and 2006 based on the Entropy method. The results show that the comprehensive level of urbanization in China has a continuous increase with the major features of economic growth and a rapid evolution of the geographical landscape, followed by population urbanization and then social urbanization of health care standard; the distinguished evolutional characteristics can also be found in each of the subsystems. The integrated evolution of urbanization has a profound effect on the resources, energy and the environment, making the land resources and energy security situation under severe pressure. The environment pressure is also increased further. Keywords: urbanization; comprehensive evaluation; resources; environment; Entropy method; China 1 Introduction Urbanization is one of the most significant changes occurring in contemporary human society. There is a widespread concern over China s urbanization because of the unique road, not only by multi-discipline, such as geography, but also related departments. Although Chinese scholars have been made a long-term and deep study systematically on China s urbanization, lots of specific questions still have not been resolved effectively (Qiu, 2007). Recently, the numbers and the scales of cities have been dramatically increased in China, which are unprecedented in human history (Roger and Yao, 1999). Consequently, both the scholarly literature on China s demographics as well as the pronouncements of Chinese policy makers have hailed the country s growing urbanization levels as a sign of progress (Gene and Josef, 2006). The central government of China has taken urbanization as a strategic key for the country s development. As a result, a number of local governments have proposed to speed up the urbanization process to promote economic growth. However, whether the strategy is feasible has yet to be explored (Xuan et al., 2005). China has a fairly high level of Received: 2009-07-08 Accepted: 2009-09-10 Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 40871071; No.40771207 Author: Chen Mingxing (1982 ), Ph.D, specialized in urbanization and regional development. E-mail: cmxxx@sina.com *Corresponding author: Zha Liangsong (1953 ), Professor, E-mail: zls0155@sina.com www.scichina.com www.springerlink.com

18 Journal of Geographical Sciences population urbanization by official document, and the speed of urbanization is fast. The media and publicity are attended with too much ballyhoo, and local governments compared urbanization level to each other (Zhou, 2006). Some areas are eager to concentrate on urban construction in spite of economic level and other constraint conditions. A large number of migrant farmers do not settle in cities, and they cannot enjoy the same treatment as city dwellers (Lu et al., 2007; Lu, 2007; Yao et al., 2007). Driving urbanization increases risk of land preservation and grain supply (Chen, 2007). George Lin thought that one of the key characteristics of Chinese urbanism is the rapid growth of urban size, accompanying by peri-urbanization (George, 2006; 2007). Domestic scholars conducted intensive research on the phenomenon of peri-urbanization (Liu et al., 2004). Friedmann thought that China is urbanizing at breakneck speed, compressing into one century what will have taken the world three centuries to accomplish (Friedmann, 2006). The level of urbanization should be one of the most important indicators of a national or regional socio-economic development, but China s rapid urbanization process has faced many challenges. Some phenomenons give cause for worry, which is concerned with the singleness of urbanization measure. The measure methods of urbanization level can be divided into two categories. One is single index, and the other is comprehensive evaluation. The former has its advantages, but the meaning of urbanization is highly sophisticated and enriching, involving a series of fundamental shift of economic structure, social structure, production mode, and life style (Lu et al., 2007). As a result, single index cannot demonstrate the rich connotation of urbanization. Hence, there is a need for radical reform of these systems. Comprehensive evaluation is essential not only for expressing the whole meaning but also for illustrating synergistic evolution of population, land, economy and life. This paper aims to develop a system of comprehensive evaluation index of urbanization. Based on information entropy, the systemic features of urbanization are evaluated comprehensively since China s reform and opening up. Moreover, the effects of urbanization on resource and environment are examined to promote the healthy development of urbanization. 2 Research methods and data 2.1 The index system Referencing from the existing comprehensive evaluation index system (Xuan et al., 2005; Zheng et al., 2007; Shen and Zhang, 2006), the index system of urbanization must follow the fundamental principles of system, integrity, effectiveness, science and operation. The connotation of urbanization can be summarized in the following four aspects: 1) population urbanization mainly reflects the peasants concentrated from countryside to cities or towns, including the proportion of urban population, urban population size, the population density in built-up areas; 2) economy urbanization mainly reflects the economic structure transition, including per capita GDP, per capita gross industrial output, the GDP proportion of secondary and tertiary industries, the GDP density of secondary and tertiary industries; 3) land urbanization mainly reflects the changes in the geographical landscape, including the built-up area, per capita built-up area, per capita public green area and per capita area of paved roads; 4) social urbanization mainly reflects the changes in lifestyle, including per capita household electricity consumption, the number of college students per ten thousand

CHEN Mingxing et al.: The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources 19 people, the number of doctors per ten thousand people, the number of hospital beds per ten thousand people. The four aspects are interrelated but differentiated to reflect the urbanization fully and accurately. 2.2 Entropy method In the comprehensive evaluation index system, two main methods have been used, which could be called respectively the subjective weighting method and the objective weighting method. The subjective weighting method means that the weighting of index is up to valuator s knowledge and preference; while the objective weighting method is up to the information by the index. In this paper, the entropy method is used to determinate the weights of index to eliminate the subjective favor of valuator. In the natural sciences, the thermodynamic entropy in physics refers to the measure of system disorder. In the social sciences, the informational entropy is equivalent to the thermodynamic entropy in mathematics, but the meaning is dissimilar, which refers to the measure of system uncertainty. In general, the information entropy value is higher; the system is more balanced; the difference is smaller; and the change is slower. Conversely, the information entropy value is lower, the system is more unbalanced, the difference is greater, and the change is sooner. Consequently according to the entropy value, the weight of index could be calculated. The main steps are as follows. Data standardized: due to difference in dimension, magnitude and positive- negative of the index, the data need to be standardized. When the greater the index value, the more advantageous the system, the positive calculating method is used. X = ( X min{ X })/ ij ij j (max{ X j} min{ X j}). Conversely, the negative calculating method is used. X ij = (max{ X } X ) /(max{ X } min{ X }). j ij j j Calculating the proportion of index j in year i: Y ij = X ij Calculating the information entropy of index: m 1 ej = k ( Yij ln Yij ), k = i= 1 ln m, 0 e j 1 (2) Calculating the redundancy of information entropy: dj = 1 ej (3) Calculating the weighting of index: m i= 1 X n j j / j j= 1 ij (1) w = d d (4) Calculating the value of single index evaluation: S ij = w j X ij (5) Calculating the value of comprehensive evaluation in year i: n S i = S ij (6) j

20 Journal of Geographical Sciences where X ij represents the value of index j in year i. min{x j } and max{x j } express respectively the minimum and the maximum of index j. In addition, m is the number of years, and n is the number of index. 2.3 Data source The data of built-up area, per capita built-up area, per capita public green area and per capita area of paved roads are from the publication of China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook 2006 by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (Formerly Ministry of Construction). The data of gross output of township enterprises are from the publication of China Township Enterprises and Agricultural Products Processing Industry Statistical Yearbook 1982 2007 by the Ministry of Agriculture. The remaining data of index are derived from China Statistical Yearbook 1982 2007 by National Bureau of Statistics. The missing data are calculated by interpolation of adjacent year. 3 Comprehensive evolution of China s urbanization in 1981 2006 In accordance with the steps of entropy method, all the data of 416 points of 16 indexes are calculated and analyzed for understanding the evolution of urbanization in China (Tables 1 3 and Figure 1). Table 1 gives the value of information entropy, redundancy and weight of index. In the weight ordering the highest is per capita gross industrial output (0.1839) followed by per capita GDP (0.1755), which indicated that economic growth is the main feature of China s urbanization process in 1981 2006. The rest are listed in descending order: college students per ten thousand people, per capita power consumption, GDP density of secondary and tertiary industries, per capita public green area, per capita area of paved Table 1 System Subsystem U comprehensive evaluation index system Comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization Index (unit) Entropy Redundancy Weight U1 Population U11 Proportion of urban population (%) 0.9920 0.0080 0.0116 U12 Urban population size (10 4 ) 0.9857 0.0143 0.0209 U13 Labor force in secondary and tertiary industries (10 4 ) 0.9960 0.0040 0.0059 U14 Population density in built-up area (person/km 2 ) 0.9959 0.0041 0.0060 U2 Economy U21 Per capita GDP (yuan) 0.8796 0.1204 0.1755 U22 Per capita gross industrial output (yuan) 0.8739 0.1261 0.1839 U23 GDP proportion of secondary and tertiary industries (%) 0.9988 0.0012 0.0017 U24 GDP density of secondary and tertiary industries (10 4 yuan/km 2 ) 0.9244 0.0756 0.1101 U3 Land U31 The built-up area (km 2 ) 0.9711 0.0289 0.0421 U32 Per capita built-up area (m 2 /person) 0.9954 0.0046 0.0066 U33 Per capita public green area (m 2 /person) 0.9438 0.0562 0.0819 U34 Per capita area of paved roads (m 2 /person) 0.9503 0.0497 0.0725 U4 Society U41 Per capita household electricity consumption (KWH) 0.9057 0.0943 0.1374 U42 College students per ten thousand people 0.9031 0.0969 0.1413 U43 Doctors per ten thousand people 0.9988 0.0012 0.0018 U44 Hospital beds per ten thousand people 0.9996 0.0004 0.0006

CHEN Mingxing et al.: The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources 21 Table 2 The stages of China s urbanization Stage Period The comprehensive level of urbanization The level of population urbanization Initial value Terminal value Annual growth Initial value Terminal value Annual growth I 1981 1995 0.0092 0.0359 0.0019 20.16% 29.04% 0.63 II 1996 2006 0.0401 0.1119 0.0069 30.48% 43.9% 1.35 Table 3 Comprehensive level of urbanization and each subsystem s scores and growth rate in China (1981 2006) Year Comprehensive Population Economy Society Land level Scores Growth Scores Growth Scores Growth Scores Growth 1981 0.0092 0.0012 0.0022 0.0025 0.0033 1982 0.0098 0.0012 0.0319 0.0023 0.0357 0.0027 0.1009 0.0036 0.0811 1983 0.0104 0.0013 0.0268 0.0025 0.0915 0.0030 0.0918 0.0036 0.0104 1984 0.0110 0.0013 0.0506 0.0029 0.1389 0.0032 0.0830 0.0036 0.0004 1985 0.0122 0.0014 0.0436 0.0036 0.2506 0.0037 0.1534 0.0035 0.0314 1986 0.0140 0.0014 0.0273 0.0040 0.1109 0.0040 0.0865 0.0046 0.3063 1987 0.0150 0.0015 0.0295 0.0045 0.1334 0.0043 0.0652 0.0048 0.0328 1988 0.0163 0.0015 0.0164 0.0054 0.1954 0.0047 0.0926 0.0047 0.0024 1989 0.0171 0.0015 0.0144 0.0059 0.1008 0.0049 0.0505 0.0048 0.0071 1990 0.0179 0.0015 0.0105 0.0063 0.0543 0.0053 0.0766 0.0049 0.0152 1991 0.0196 0.0015 0.0088 0.0071 0.1411 0.0055 0.0417 0.0054 0.1080 1992 0.0222 0.0016 0.0221 0.0089 0.2384 0.0061 0.1120 0.0056 0.0459 1993 0.0259 0.0016 0.0170 0.0114 0.2937 0.0069 0.1309 0.0059 0.0508 1994 0.0309 0.0016 0.0235 0.0151 0.3220 0.0079 0.1428 0.0062 0.0558 1995 0.0359 0.0017 0.0215 0.0187 0.2333 0.0087 0.0957 0.0068 0.0979 1996 0.0401 0.0017 0.0427 0.0215 0.1517 0.0094 0.0795 0.0075 0.1007 1997 0.0434 0.0018 0.0415 0.0236 0.0979 0.0100 0.0725 0.0079 0.0479 1998 0.0455 0.0019 0.0374 0.0247 0.0446 0.0106 0.0530 0.0084 0.0629 1999 0.0489 0.0019 0.0365 0.0260 0.0533 0.0121 0.1426 0.0089 0.0612 2000 0.0543 0.0020 0.0353 0.0284 0.0945 0.0145 0.2028 0.0093 0.0427 2001 0.0605 0.0021 0.0300 0.0306 0.0763 0.0171 0.1744 0.0108 0.1580 2002 0.0669 0.0021 0.0277 0.0328 0.0708 0.0198 0.1588 0.0122 0.1358 2003 0.0762 0.0022 0.0307 0.0366 0.1163 0.0231 0.1660 0.0144 0.1747 2004 0.0870 0.0023 0.0289 0.0422 0.1552 0.0265 0.1482 0.0160 0.1135 2005 0.0981 0.0023 0.0265 0.0483 0.1431 0.0305 0.1529 0.0170 0.0638 2006 0.1118 0.0024 0.0224 0.0558 0.1563 0.0344 0.1262 0.0193 0.1339 roads, the built-up area, urban population size, proportion of urban population, per capita built-up area, population density in built-up area, labor force in secondary and tertiary industries, doctors per ten thousand people, GDP proportion of secondary and tertiary industries, and hospital beds per ten thousand people. The ordering shows that economic growth and built-up area expanding as the main characteristics of China s urbanization since 1981, followed by the population urbanization, and finally the health care of society urbanization,

22 Journal of Geographical Sciences the weight of which is only 0.0018 and 0.0006 respectively. Figure 1 gives the curves of comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and the population urbanization by official announcement since 1981. It can be seen that not only the level of comprehensive evaluation has improved continuously, from 0.0092 to 0.1119 in 1981 2006, but also the population urbanization (the urban population proportion of the total population) has increased from 20.16% to 43.9%. Pearson correlation coefficient between comprehensive evolution and population change is 0.974, which shows that the two processes are related significantly. Figure 1 The evolution of China s urbanization, 1981 2006 The China s urbanization developed in two phases: the steady development period (1981 1995) and high-speed development period (1996 2006) (see Table 2). In the former stage, the comprehensive level of urbanization has increased steadily from 0.0092 to 0.0359, with an annual rate of 0.0019; while the level of population urbanization has a growth from 20.16% to 29.04%, with an annual rate of 0.63 percentage points. In the latter stage, the comprehensive level of urbanization has increased rapidly from 0.0401 to 0.1119, with an average increase of 0.0069, 3.6 times of the former stage; while the level of population urbanization has a growth dramatically from 30.48% to 43.9%, with an annual increase of 1.35 percentage points, 2.14 times of the former stage. The numbers also demonstrate that 1996 marked a turning point in China s urbanization, and from then on China has entered a period of rapid development. 4 The evolution of subsystems of China s urbanization in 1978 2006 The value and evolution of subsystems of China s urbanization are shown in Table 3 and Figure 2. Next, the four subsystems are described separately. 4.1 Subsystem of population urbanization The level of the subsystem of population subsystem has a rise from 0.0012 to 0.0024, and the relative growth rate is 100%, which indicates that the population urbanization is going up all the time. In 1981 1995, the annual growth rate is 0.00003, while the value is 0.00006 in 1996 2006 (Figure 2a). The value of the latter stage is twice as much as the former stage. In view of the special indicators, the value of urban population size has grown from

CHEN Mingxing et al.: The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources 23 Figure 2 The evolution of the subsystems of urbanization 0.0004 in 1981 to 0.0013 in 2006, and the rate of growth is the fastest, followed by the value of proportion of urban population. However, the value of labor force in secondary and tertiary industries only has a small growth from 0.0002 to 0.0003, which reflects that new jobs in secondary and tertiary industries are limited. In recent years, China s employment is grimmer, unemployment has risen, and surplus labor force in China s rural areas has increased (Cai and Wang, 2004). Moreover, informal employment is the main form of new jobs. Consequently, it is necessary to be alert on the risk of unemployment in the process of rapid population urbanization. 4.2 Subsystem of economic urbanization The value of the subsystem of economic urbanization has a rapid growth from 0.0022 to 0.0558 during 1981 to 2006, which shows that China s economy has long-term development dramatically. During the period 1996 2006, the growth rate is 3.4 times that of the former stage. It deserves full attention that the pace of economic development decreased in 1996 2001, which is the results of macro-control to achieve the soft landing of macro-economy. In the view of special indicators, the growth rate of industrial output per capita is the fastest, followed by per capita GDP (Figure 2b). This shows that the rapid evolution of industrialization is the most important characteristic of economic urbanization. Moreover, the value of GDP density of secondary and tertiary industries has been increasing since 1981. In other words, the investment magnitude of per unit area is expanding. However, the GDP proportion of secondary and tertiary industries only has a tiny growth from 0.00006 in 1981 to 0.00008 in 2006, and the annual growth rate is extremely slow. This was mainly due to two reasons: one is that the industrial structure is unreasonable in the early stage of reform and opening up; the other is the effect of rural industrialization, which led to the development of the service sector being very weak in China (Guo, 2002).

24 Journal of Geographical Sciences 4.3 Subsystem of land urbanization The value of the subsystem of land urbanization has a rapid growth from 0.0033 to 0.0193 during 1981 to 2006, which shows that China s urban construction has a long-term growth. The annual rate is 0.0011 in 1996 2006, while the value is only 0.0002 in 1981 1995. The annual rate in the latter stage has grown to be 5.5 times the rate of the former stage, which indicates that the process of land urbanization is growing by leaps and bounds. In view of the special indicators, the growth rate of per capita public green area and per capita area of paved roads is higher, followed by the built-up area, and the slowest is per capita built-up area. The results show that the infrastructure construction, such as green space, traffic, is an important reason for the rapid growth of the built-up area. The public green area per capita and paved roads area per capita were only 1.5 m 2 and 1.81 m 2 separately in 1981, while they have increased to 9.3 m 2 and 12.36 m 2 in 2006. Infrastructures guided and stimulated economy to contribute to regional development (Jin, 2004). However, the development style is still in an expansion stage, and the spatial distribution has yet to be optimized. 4.4 Subsystem of social urbanization The value of the subsystem of social urbanization has grown by 0.0344 in 2006 from 0.0344 in 1981, accompanied by a steady growth in the overall process of social urbanization. In terms of developing process, we found that between 1981 and 1995, the value of 0.0025 grew to 0.0087, with an annual rate of 0.0004 in the 16-year period; between 1996 and 2006, the value grew from 0.0094 to 0.0344, with an annual growth of 0.0023. The data also show the same characteristics of the two stages. Based on the changes of specific index (Figure 2c), each index within the subsystems of social urbanization was found to be greatly different from others. On the one hand, two of the indexes are growing rapidly: in 1981, per capita household electricity consumption was 9.6 KWH while the number of college students per ten thousand people was 13; however in 2006, the numbers were 249 KWH and 132, respectively. The curve for the index of number of the college students per ten thousand people, which reflects the progress in population quality, had a distinct turning point. First the expansion of higher education in China, and then the direct means of changing college students registered permanent residence from rural residents to urban residents and the indirect means of promoting the economic growth, Chinese urbanization process were further promoted. On the other hand, two indexes of them suffered a slow growth: in 1981, the number of doctors for every ten thousand people was 12 while the number of hospital beds for every ten thousand was 20; however, in 2006, the above numbers were merely 15 and 25, with only a growth of 25% in the 26 years time. The above statistics show that the process of social urbanization is extremely unbalanced; the medical conditions that are closely related to people s life are severely undeveloped and unable to adapt to people s growing needs. 5 The resource and environmental effects generated by urbanization 5.1 The restraining effect of the rapid transition of agricultural to non-agricultural land on urbanization By the estimation and analysis of the comprehensive urbanization evolution, it has been

CHEN Mingxing et al.: The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources 25 proved that the land urbanization constituted an important aspect of such rapid evolution. Especially, the driving force can be attributed as the concentration of population to towns and cities and the transition of non-agricultural economic structure. According to the comprehensive evaluation value, as well as the calculation based on the correlation coefficient of population urbanization, economy urbanization and land urbanization, we obtain a result of 0.958, and 0.982 (Figure 3), showing that they are enjoying a good positive correlation. On this basis, a regression model was established; analysis of demographic, economic element evolution s impact model and extent towards non-agricultural land were also carried out. Figure 3 Effects of population and economy urbanization on land urbanization The regression model applies linear and exponential forms; and the final regression model and coefficients are as follows: 2 Y = 4.8747X R = 0.5736 (7) land Yland Y land Yland pop 1464.4 X pop = 0.0006e = 0.2834X + 0.0027 eco 32.857 X eco = 0.0037e 2 R = 0.9851 (8) 2 R = 0.9647 (9) 2 R = 0.9638 (10) where Y land stands for the level of non-agricultural land, X pop stands for the level of urbanization, and X eco stands for the level of economy urbanization. From formulas (7) and (8) we easily found that the correlation coefficient of index return reaches 0.9851, being well above the linear regression correlation coefficient which merely reaches 0.6736: showing that between 1981 and 2006, the relation between economy urbanization and non-agricultural land is more in line with the index model. It also means the urban construction land grows faster than its population and the proportion of per unit occupied construction land for urban population has a faster growth tendency. From formula (9) and (10) we may also easily find that the correlation coefficient of index return reaches 0.9851, being a little above the linear regression correlation coefficient of 0.9638: showing that between 1981 and 2006, the relation between economic urbanization and non-agricultural land is more in line with the index model. The growth of urban construction land is also faster than economic growth, while the proportion growing tendency of occupied land for construction brought by the economic growth is not as fast as the index model. By contrast, the scale and speed of occupied land

26 Journal of Geographical Sciences for construction brought by the urban population concentrating is even more staggering. The double impact of population and economy causes the spreading speed of urbanization out of control in terms of space especially in the coastal areas; rapid urbanization requires more land and space than that in other areas. With the production capacity of the land itself and the features of greatly irreplaceable and non-mobile, it is also the carrier of the economy and the environment. Limited land resources and the expanding demand for land have led to a more severe conflict between people and land. The restraining effect of limited land resource to urbanization becomes increasingly enhanced, turning the restraining effect from weak to strong. Such a situation brings in a number of serious consequences: the first is the low efficiency of land use; the second is the shortage of land resource; and the third is the important driving force that causes global climate and environmental changes. 5.2 The difficulties of energy security facing China with the growth of energy consumption The energy consumption trend in China is on the rise every year. The annual energy consumption such as coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power were turned into standard coal. Figure 4 shows the major energy consumption between 1978 and 2006, and other energy forms including hydropower, nuclear power and wind power. From the national perspective, the energy consumption in 1978 was 571 million tons of standard coal and 2462 million tons of standard coal in the year of 2006, with a growth rate of 430%. From the perspective of major consumption types, coal was still the most important form of our energy consumption; in 1978, the country consumed 404 million tons of standard coal, reaching 69.4% of the total energy consumption; in 2006, the consumption was 1909 million tons, accounting for 69.4% of the total energy consumption that year; the consumption was increased by 4.2 times, while the decline in the proportion slightly reached 1.3%. The consumption trend of oil, gas, hydroelectricity also grew relatively fast and their total consumption proportion obtained a slow upward trend. From the perspective of energy consumption elasticity coefficient, we found that it is 0.60, 0.63 and 1.02 respectively in the years of 1985, 1995 and 2005. And the value of coefficient reached its maximum of 1.59 in 2004. The coefficient of energy consumption, which expresses the situation of energy consumption efficiency, is an indicator that reflects proportion of the growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of national economy, as well as a ratio between the average annual growth rate of energy consumption and the annual average growth rate of the national economy. When the coefficient exactly equals 1, it means the GDP output per unit energy remains unchanged; when the coefficient is less than 1, it means the GDP output per unit energy increases and energy efficiency improves; whereas, when the coefficient is more than 1, it means the GDP output per unit energy decreases and energy efficiency is also lowered. Apparently, the coefficient of energy consumption indicates that China s efficiency of per energy use unit suffers a downward trend. Therefore, taking both consumption structure and consumption coefficient into consideration, we may also find that China s extensive economic growth and resource-based approach still has not experienced a significant change. After analyzing the relation between urbanization process and energy consumption, a regression model that concerns the comprehensive level of urbanization (X urban ) and energy

CHEN Mingxing et al.: The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources 27 Figure 4 Energy consumption in 1978 2006 Figure 5 The relationship between energy consumption and urbanization consumption (Y ene ) was built (Figure 5). The linear relation is distinct when perceived from the above picture. Please see the regression results in the formula (11): 2 Yene = 8.328Xurban 0.0192 R = 0.9429 (11) From formula (11), we found that the relation between urbanization process and energy consumption is distinctly linear. One unit increase in the comprehensive level of urbanization will lead to an eight-unit increase in the total energy consumption, which reflects that the urbanization process has a great effect on the energy consumption and such effect is becoming much greater. China has a huge population, a strong consumption demand and a huge community of regional differences in the resources and the environment. In the coming two or three decades, China will face a period of rapid developing and our overall energy security situation may also become more severe. Therefore, a sound development of urbanization process can not be missing from the protection of energy security. On the one hand, we need to make our national strategies of energy security and energy development plans, implement comprehensive energy strategies and resolve our energy issues in order to ensure the energy supply security in the period of China s rapid urbanization; what s more, more special attention should be paid to the development and utilization of regenerated energy resource. On the other hand, we should exploit the international energy market and promote the process of energy internationalization. It is also an important choice for China s energy security. 5.3 The adverse effect of increasingly severe environmental issues on the sustainable development of urbanized areas Environment, which is a space and a basis for human beings survival, restricts the development of socioeconomy and the improvement people s living standard. As we all know, developed countries have experienced a pollution first, treatment later process. As a matter of fact, the emergence and deterioration of China s environmental problems is a continuation of such a process. Table 4 shows the emissions of major pollutants in China between 2002 and 2006, in which we can find that the emissions of waste water, waste gas, dust and solid waste were all increasing really fast. Among them, emissions of waste gas obtained the fastest growth rate. In 2002, the emission of waste gas was 17.5257 trillion m 3. However, this number grew to 33.0992 trillion cubic m 3. Its growth rate reached 189%. The following emission was the solid waste, which reached 945,090,000 tons in 2002 but grew to 1,515,410,000 tons in 2006, making its growth rate 160%. The emission of waste water

28 Journal of Geographical Sciences also grew from 43.9 billion tons in 2002 to 53.7 billion tons in 2006. As a matter of fact, there was no obvious increase in the dust emissions, and there was even a slight decrease in 2006. The overall picture is that the environmental pollution has become a very severe problem in China. The environmental problem is becoming global now. Given the fact that China is still in its medium phase of industrialization and urbanization, and some areas are even in the transition stages from the early phase to the medium term, such severe environmental pollution pressure is definitely unique. Therefore, the issue of environmental pollution, which concerns national and regional sustainable development, is a serious obstacle that we are facing in the social and economic development. After analyzing the relation between the urbanization process and environmental pollution to a further degree (see Figure 6), we found the Pearson correlation coefficients between Table 4 Emissions of major pollutions in 2002 2006 Waste water Waste gas Dust Solid waste Year Emissions (10 8 t) Growth Growth rate Emissions (10 8 t) Growth Growth rate Emissions (10 8 Growth Growth Emissions t) rate (10 8 Growth Growth t) rate 2002 439 100 175257 100 1013 100 94509 100 2003 459 20 105 198906 23649 113 1049 36 104 100428 5919 106 2004 482 23 110 237696 38790 136 1095 46 108 120030 19602 127 2005 525 43 120 268988 31292 153 1183 88 117 134449 14419 142 2006 537 12 122 330992 62004 189 1089 94 108 151541 17092 160 Figure 6 The relationship of China s urbanization and emissions of major pollutants

CHEN Mingxing et al.: The comprehensive evaluation of China s urbanization and effects on resources 29 the comprehensive evaluation of urbanization level and the emissions of waste water, waste gas, dust and solid waste are respectively 0.983, 0.995, 0.670 and 0.995. The correlation coefficient between the emission of dust and the rise of comprehensive urbanization level is relatively low, so its effect is not significant. However, the relations between other emissions and the rise of comprehensive urbanization level are significant, and they all have passed the test. These data indicate that the rapid urbanization process has caused the current severe environmental situation. Therefore, we shall realize that the adjustment of economic structure and the shift of economic growth pattern is a necessity for implementing the scientific concept of development as well as a must to ease the pressure on the environment and to achieve our object of sustainable development. We must make every effort to protect the environment and improve the ecology; and also take a new road to industrialization and urbanization, in order to promote a coordinated development of economy, society and environment. 6 Conclusions and discussion (1) The information included in the comprehensive measurement index system of urbanization is abundant, integrated and complete, reflecting the evolving characteristics of population, economy, society and land. (2) The quantitative analysis of comprehensive measurement showed that the comprehensive level of China s urbanization have a positive correlation with population urbanization level. The main characteristics are the rapid evolution of economic growth and geographical landscapes, followed by population urbanization, and the last is the medical care level in social urbanization. Among them, the subsystems such as population, economy, society and land have different evolution characteristics in different stages. (3) The rapid evolution of urbanization has very obvious effects on resources, energy and the environment. The protection of land resources and energy security is austere and the environmental pressure has further increased. Based on Entropy method and integrated measurement index system, this paper has obtained some useful conclusions and policy inspirations by quantitatively analyzing China s rapid urbanization process and the effects on resource and environment. As the world s largest developing country, the sustained and rapid development of China s future socioeconomy need not only an incessantly expanding fund and technology source, but also a resource base and an environmental base that are continuously being improved. The resources and environmental constraints and bottleneck effect during China s rapid urbanization process have already been exposed and need urgently to be solved. In the future, the research on urbanization should be enhanced in two aspects: one is the regional pattern of urbanization, and the other is the quantitative analysis of urbanization s effects on resources and environment. References Cai Fang, Wang Meiyan, 2004. The informal employment and labor market: The growth of urban employment. The Economics Information, (2): 24 28. (in Chinese) Chen J, 2007. Rapid urbanization in China: A real challenge to soil protection and food security. Catena, 69(1):

30 Journal of Geographical Sciences 1 15. Cui Gonghao, Laurence J C Ma, 1999. Urbanization from below in China: Its development and mechanisms. Acta Geographica Sinica, 54 (2): 106 114. (in Chinese) Friedmann J, 2006. Four theses in the study of China s urbanization. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 30(2): 440 451. Gene H C, Josef C B, 2006. The paradox of China s growing under-urbanization. Economic Systems, 30: 24 40. George Lin, 2006. Peri-urbanism in globalizing China: A study of new urbanism in Dongguan. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 47(1): 28 53. George Lin, 2007. Chinese urbanism in question: State, society, and the reproduction of urban spaces. Urban Geography, 28: 7 29. Gu Shengzu, Li Zhengyou, 1998. The institutional analysis of the urbanization from below in China. Social Science in China, (2): 60 70. (in Chinese) Guo Kesha, 2002. An economic analysis of the relationship between industrialization and urbanization. Social Science in China, (2): 44 45. (in Chinese) Heikkila E J, 2007. Three questions regarding urbanization in China. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 27(1): 65 81. Jin Fengjun, 2004. Infrastructure system and regional development. China Population, Resources and Environment, 14(4): 70 74. (in Chinese) Liu Shenghe, Chen Tian, Cai Jianming, 2004. Peri-urbanization in China and its major research issues. Acta Geographica Sinica, 59(suppl.): 101 108. (in Chinese) Lu Dadao, 2007. Urbanization process and spatial sprawl in China. Urban Planning Forum, (4): 47 52. (in Chinese) Lu Dadao, Yao Shimou, Liu Hui et al., 2006. China Regional Development Report: Urbanization and Spatial Sprawl. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 1997. (in Chinese) Ning Yuemin, 1998. New process of urbanization: Dynamics and features of urbanization in China since 1990. Acta Geographica Sinica, 53(5): 88 95. (in Chinese) Qiu Baoxing, 2007. Difficulties and strategies-choosing in the realization of orderly urbanization of China. Urban Planning Forum, (5): 1 15. (in Chinese) Roger C K, Yao Shimou, 1999. Urbanization and sustainable metropolitan development in China: Patterns problems and prospects. GeoJournal, 49: 269 277. Shen J F, Wong K Y, Feng Z Q, 2002. State-sponsored and spontaneous urbanization in the Pearl River Delta of South China, 1980 1998. Urban Geography, 23(7): 674 694. Shen Yuming, Zhang Yun, 2006. The mechanism and assessment of eco-city construction from perspectives of urbanization and ecological transition: Taken Beijing as example. Human Geography, 21(3): 19 23, 103. (in Chinese) Xuan Guofu, Xu Jiangang, Zhao Jing, 2005. Study on the synthetic measurement of the urbanization level in Anhui Province. Areal Research and Development, 24(3): 47 51. (in Chinese) Xue Fengxuan, Yang Chun, 1997. Foreign capital: The new dynamic force of urbanization in the developing countries: Study on the example of Zhujiang Delta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 52(3): 194 206. (in Chinese) Yao Shimou, Guan Chiming, Wang Shuguo et al., 2007. The research on new characteristics of urbanization and the strategy of regional space construction in China. Advance in Earth Sciences, 22(3): 271 280. (in Chinese) Zheng Wensheng, Wang Xiaofang, Li Chenggu, 2007. The spatial disparities of regional comprehensive urbanization level of vice provincial city in China from 1997. Economic Geography, 27(2): 256 260. (in Chinese) Zhou Yixing, 2006. Thoughts on the speed of China s urbanization. Urban Planning, 30(suppl.): 32 40. (in Chinese)