Molybdenum and Stainless Steel about Mines and Markets Dr. Hans Imgrund Prospects for the development of the Russian stainless steel market Chelyabinsk, 22nd March, 2007 International Molybdenum Association Rue Père Eudore Devroye 245 1150 Brussels Belgium Tel: +32 2 770 8878 Fax: +32 2 770 8898 E-mail: info@imoa.info www.imoa.info
Molybdenum Properties and uses Sources Market observations 2
Molybdenum Properties and uses 3
First Use of Molybdenum 6% 25% 14% 5% 6% 9% 35% Total 2006: approx. 425 million lb 190,000 t 4 Source: IMOA Estimates Stainless Steel Constructional Steel Tool & High Speed Steel Cast Iron Superalloys Chemicals Mo metal
Molybdenum Metal & Alloys Properties Courtesy of Plansee High melting point 2610 C High hot strength High wear resistance Good corrosion resistance High temperature vacuum furnace 5
Molybdenum Metal & Alloys Glass melting electrodes High temperature furnaces Halogen lamps sealing and supporting wire Electronic industry high power semi conductor parts Mo spray wire and sputtering targets for coating applications Metal and plastic forming 6 Courtesy of Plansee Uses TZM piercing plug for rolling stainless steel tubes
Molybdenum in Alloy Steels Molybdenum is almost always used in combination with other metals including Chromium Nickel Vanadium Tungsten Niobium moly grade steels are usually required for high end applications 7
Effects of Molybdenum In tool steels (average Mo 0.8%) and in high speed steels moly enhances hardenability contributes to secondary hardening is an important constituent of the primary M6C-carbide (hardness > 2000 HV), which confers wear resistance 8 Courtesy of Boehler Uddeholm (average Mo content 5%):
Effects of Molybdenum in constructional steels & high strength low alloy steels-hsla (Mo content 0.1-1.2%) moly enhances 9 hardenability strength and toughness weldability elevated temperature strength resistance to sulfide stress cracking Oil rigg with drill pipe Orbis photo
Uses of moly grade constructional steels/hsla Applications cover the whole energy chain from raw meterial production through end use: Quenched & tempered (Q&t) CrMo seamless oil contry tubular goods. HSLA pipelines for Oil and Gas High temperature CrMo and CrMoV grades for petrochemical processing and energy generation. 10 Q & t CrMo engineering steels in automotive, shipbuilding, aerospace
Uses of moly grade constructional steels 11 Energy generation Oil & Gas transportation
Courtesy of Plansee Uses of moly grade constructional steels Gears made of CrMo carburising steel 12 for everything that moves
Effects of Molybdenum in stainless steels (average Mo content approx. 2.2%) moly improves corrosion resistance 13
Use of moly grade stainless steels About 10 % of world stainless steel production is molybdenum grade with average 2.2% Mo Moly grade stainless steels are invaluable in industrial processing such as chemical, petrochemical, pulp and paper oil and gas, power generation Corbis photo 14 Petrochemical Processing
Stainless steel has become the material of choice for many architectural uses around the world 15 Ulrich Otte (Stadt Düsseldorf), Germany Use of moly grade stainless steels Zollhof, Düsseldorf
Use of stainless steel - grade selection is critical. Nobody likes stainless steel which is rusting. Moly-grade stainless steels are resistant to de-icing salt or coastal air attack. 16
Use of moly grade stainless steel AISI 316 stainless steel with 2,2 % Mo has replaced aluminum at Brussels Atomium. 17
Molybdenum Sources 18
Global Production - Geographically 19% 7% Southamerica Northamerica China CIS & Mongolia 38% 36% Total 2006: 425 million lb 192,000 t 19 Source: IMOA; Adams Metals
Global Production Mine Types By-product West Primary West China & CIS 24% 60% 16% Total 2006: 425 million lb 190,000 t 20 Source: IMOA ; Adams Metals
Molybdenum from Primary Mining Calculation example: Ore grade 0.2% Mo yielding 1.8 kg/t Mo in concentrate Producing 1 t of Mo ctd requires 550 t of ore Annual production of 10,000 t Mo contd. in MoS2 concentrate requires mining and milling 5.5 million t of ore (approx. 20,000 t per day) The initial investment for a primary mine usually requires several hundred million US Dollars. 21
Courtesy of Climax Molybdenum Molybdenum from Primary Mining 22 Henderson operational schematic
Courtesy of Kennecott Utah Mine Corp. Molybdenum By-product from Copper Mining 23
Molybdenum By-product from Copper Mining Copper mines producing molybdenum as byproduct usually have ore grades falling between 0.5% and 1.5% Cu (5 to 15 kg/t) and between 0.01% and 0,05% Mo (0.1 to 0.5 kg/t). Major operations mine more than 50 million tons of ore per year, producing in excess of 200,000 t of copper and between 5,000 and 15,000 t Mo contained in MoS2 concentrate as by-product. The revenues from molybdenum are usually less than 10% of total sales. 24 Consequently the moly output of these mines follows the copper market rather than the demand for molybdenum.
Molybdenum supply structure 450 MM lbs. Molybdenum 400 350 CIS-Mongolia By-product and Chinese China production increases Western By-Product significantly Western Primary 300 250 200 150 100 Climax mine started: 1918 50 25 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Source: Climax Molybdenum, presented at Ryans s Notes Conference 2005
Molybdenum Market Observations 26
Global Molybdenum Use 450 MM lbs Molybdenum 400 350 300 AGR 2000 2005: 250 200 150 AGR 1990 2005 3.5% 6.0 % 100 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 27 Source: IMOA; Adams Metals
Molybdenum Price Driven by Energyand by China Demand $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $/lb Mo $10 $5 $0 1970 28 1975 1980 Source: Metals Week Dealer Oxide Price 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Molybdenum Price and Price of Crude Oil 1970 through 2005 $40 $/Barrel Crude Oil $30 $/lb Mo $20 $10 $0 1970 29 1975 1980 1985 Source: Metals Week Dealer Oxide Price; Oilenergy.com 1990 1995 2000 2005
By-product and China-Production Increased Significantly Since 1990 Production (Million lb Mo) 350 China By-product 310 300 252 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 30 Source: IMOA 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Moly Price Was Below $ 4.00/lb in 10 of the Last 15 Years $20 $/lb Mo US $/lb Mo $16 $12 $8 $4 $0 1990 31 1992 1994 Source: Metals Week Dealer Oxide Price 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Molybdenum Price and Western Primary Production $20 100 90 70 $12 60 50 $8 40 30 $4 20 10 $0 0 1990 32 6 mines 1992 1994 1996 2 mines Source: IMOA; Metals Week Dealer Oxide Price 1998 4 mines 2000 2002 2004 2006 Million lb Mo 80 Production US $/lb Mo $16
Molybdenum Market: Demand and Price 450 399 375 $16 US $/lb 340 $12 252 $8 260 276 280 285 400 350 310 310 310 294 297 300 240 234 228 250 200 $4 150 $0 100 1990 33 1992 1994 Source: IMOA; Metals Week Dealer Oxide Price 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Consumption (Million lb) $20
Molybdenum Market: Demand Change and Price $20 US $/lb Mo $16 45 35 $12 25 $8 15 5 $4-5 $0-15 1990 34 1992 1994 Source: IMOA; Metals Week Dealer Oxide Price 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Demand Change Million lb Mo 55
New Primary Molybdenum Mine Projects Mine Expected Annual Capacity Status Production Start Indicated (Million lb Mo) Roca Mines - Max Moly Canada 2.5 Under construction??? Bluepearl Davidson Canada 5 to 10 Feasibility study end 2007 PD Climax mine USA 20 to 30 Conditionally approved 2009 Mt. Hope Nevada USA 35 Currently being permitted 2009 Adanac - Ruby Creek Canada 10 Feasibility study 2009 A comprehensive list of new molybdenum projects, including a number of by-product expansions, can be found under www.infomine.com 35 Source: Company Reports
Estimated Western Roaster Utilization Rates Western Roasters: Utilization of Available Time 120 % Utilization 100 100 94 80 77 60 40 20 0 2003 36 2004 2005 Source: Climax Molybdenum, presented at Ryans s Notes Conference 2005
Projection of Western Roasting Capacities 450 Europe Northamerica Southamerica Million lb Mo/Year 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006 37 Source: IMOA, Company Reports 2007 2008 2009 2010
Global Molybdenum Reserve Base 8% 16% Southamerica Northamerica China CIS & Mongolia 43% 33% Total 19 million metric tons Mo ctd. worth 100 years of present use 38 Source: US Geological Survey 2006
World Stainless Production & Molybdenum Use 450 30.000 400 350 300 20.000 250 15.000 200 150 10.000 100 5.000 50 0 39 0 1990 Source: IMOA; Adams Metals 1995 2000 2005 M tons Stainless Steel MM lbs Molybdenum 25.000
Everything that glitters is stainless and moly is happy to be part of it. 40. Courtesy of Outokumpu Thank you