Germany s Energiewende as a blueprint for Africa? Prof. Dr. Reinhard F. Hüttl 5 th May 2015, 9 th German-African Energy Forum
Overview Climate Change and Global Challenges Conditions of Germany s Energiewende Essential Technologies for a successful Energiewende Challenges and Chances for an African Energiewende 1 acatech May 2015
2 acatech May 2015 Climate Change and Global Challenges
Climate dynamics Globally, CO 2 -emissions have significantly increased since 1990. Current scenarios give no reason to expect a reversal of this trend in the coming years. This is not least due to the economic development in emerging countries. data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 3 acatech May 2015
4 acatech May 2015 Sociopolitical challenge: global population growth
Urbanisation trend Today, for the first time more than 50% of the global population lives in cities; the number is expected to reach five billion people by 2030. Urban growth will mainly be taking place in Africa and Asia. This trend affects the global demand for raw materials and energy. Metropolitan Areas 2009 Metropolitan Area 2025 Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs 5 acatech May 2015
Scenario 1: Global energy consumption Considering the new parameters for energy policy, global energy consumption may increase by more than one third until 2035. Source: IEA 2012, World Energy Outlook 2012 6 acatech May 2015
Electricity Consumption per capita (kwh) 2007 Electricity consumption pc. kwh 8-70 70-200 200-500 500-1000 1000-2000 2000-3000 3000-5000 5000-7000 7000-26200 7 acatech May 2015 Source: Data compiled and adjusted by FAO based on Human Development Report (HDR) 2007, Tab.22: UN 2007d.
World Population Prospects Change between 2010 and 2100 (millions) 8 acatech May 2015
Scenario 2: Energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa until 2040 Source: IEA 2014, Africa Energy Outlook 9 acatech May 2015
10 acatech May 2015 Conditions of Germany s Energiewende
(Re-)assessment of risks The Tōhoku-earthquake on the Japanese shore on March 11th, 2011 and the nuclear accident the ensuing tsunami caused in Fukushima have given rise to a reassessment of nuclear risks. The discussions in the aftermath of this event triggered the decision to realign the concepts for a safe energy supply in Germany. 11th March, 2011 11 acatech May 2015
Ethics-Commission Secure Energy Supply Motivation and mission The Commission was appointed by the Federal Government on 22 nd March 2011 to conduct a holistic study of the basis for decisions in terms of ethical responsibility. Goals Expedite phase-out of nuclear energy Expedite introduction of renewable energies Enhanced energy efficiency Function Analysing the feasibility of the goals with regard to time and the basic conditions in Germany. 12 acatech May 2015
Results Timeline and implementation 10 years Basic parameters Common task (e.g. regarding the expanison of grids and storage devices) Consideration of the energy triangle (affordable, secure, environmentally sustainable, especially with regard to climate protection) or else the energy square (also taken the issue of public acceptability into account ) Promotion of renewable energy sources and of measures to enhance energy efficiency Representative for the Energiewende at the Federal Parliament (Bundestag) Monitoring (stringent project management) Energy panels (national/regional) Conclusion: The Energiewende is both an opportunity and a challenge! 13 acatech May 2015
Energy provision from renewable sources in Germany (1990-2014) 14 acatech May 2015
Development of the number and the installed capacity of wind energy plants in Germany Source: BMWi/AGEE-Stat, February 2015 15 acatech May 2015
Development of the number and the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in Germany Source: BMWi/AGEE-Stat, February 2015 16 acatech May 2015
Development of the power generation and the installed capacity of hydropower plants in Germany 17 acatech May 2015
18 acatech May 2015 Essential Technologies for a successful Energiewende
Price evolution of PV-modules The past development shows that the price evolution of PV-modules follows a so-called pricing experience curve, i.e. that the doubling of the cumulative installed power results in the prices dropping by a constant percentage. The line shows the trend of the price evolution Source : PSE AG/Fraunhofer ISE; Datenquelle: Strategies Unlimited/Navigant Consulting/EuPD 19 acatech May 2015
Increasing the efficiency of PV-modules There is a connection between the increase of the efficiency of PVmodules and their falling prices Due to enhanced processes, better cell and module design or optimised material use, efficiency levels for modules of e.g. at least 20% for monocrystalline silicon are now realistic World record 2014: Multi-junction solar cell with an efficiency level of 46% (Fraunhofer ISE in cooperation with Soitec & CEA Leti) Source: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Sonnenenergie 20 acatech May 2015
PV-Battery-Systems Source: http://www.volker-quaschning.de Household PV-systems in Germany are mostly grid-connected, but PVbattery systems are becoming more common. Their aim is to maximize the self-supply for economic reasons. 21 acatech May 2015
Wind energy Increasing efficiency by R&D-efforts results in higher efficiency levels, longer durability, less noise emission, low burdens as well as less material requirements Evolution of the productivity of wind energy (onshore): 1985: 55 KW; 1992: 500-600 KW; 2002: 4500 KW; 2014: 8.000 KW 22 acatech May 2015
Raw material production in Africa Relevance for the German (Energy) Economy Rep. of South Africa is by far the most important raw material producer for Germany, followed by Zambia, Congo and with a larger margin by Botswana, Zimbabwe and Gabon. South Africa: Mining sector is highly developed and broadly diversified: Worldwide leader in the production of platinum group metals(pgm), chromium, vanadium, andalusite and vermiculite, gold, iron, titanium and diamonds. Zambia: Specializied in copper production. Cobalt is often gained as a by-product. Democratic Republic of the Congo: Plays a key role in diamond production, copper, cobalt and non-ferrous metals and has also significant amounts of tin, wolfram and coltan. Botswana: In addition to a strong diamond sector it also avails of significant nickel production. Zimbabwe: Is a major producer of PGMs as well as chromite and ferrochrome. Also key producers of lithium minerals. Quelle: Deutsche Rohstoffagentur, 2010 23 acatech May 2015
Grid structures: Smart Grids The Energiewende is possible. An essential prerequesite, however, ist the conversion of the electricity grids to Smart Grids. As yet, neither industry nor academia and politics have sufficiently endorsed the necessary systemic approach. Structure and components of the abstract and simplified system model with selected basic technologies, features and application areas. 24 acatech May 2015
Smart Grids and the role of modern communication technologies 25 acatech May 2015 Source: EIT ICT Labs
26 acatech May 2015 Challenges and Chances for an African Energiewende
Challenges in Subsaharan Africa Insufficient supply security or a high outage rate due to unstable grid structures Duration of electrical outages and impact on business sales in selected countries Source: IAE 2014, Africa Energy Outlook 27 acatech May 2015
Challenges in Subsaharan Africa Larger share of primary energy demand: biomass like charcoal used in inefficient ways harmful to environement and health Many people have no access to clean and affordable energy ( energy poverty) 28 acatech May 2015 Source: IEA 2014, Africa Energy Outlook
Potentials: Geothermal energy MW-data: installed capacity for geothermal electricity 29 acatech May 2015
Geothermal energy GFZ-Geothermal laboratory Groß Schönebeck 30 acatech May 2015
31 acatech May 2015 Potential of Geothermal Energy in Africa
Geothermal energy Geothermal research platform Groß Schönebeck two explorative drillings open up possibilities in 3.9 to 4.4 kilometers depths at temperatures around 150 C Such sediment basins can be found around the world. They are composed of different sedimentary rock layers and contain large resources of hot undergound water all stages of geothermal energy generation under natural conditions are scientifically explored: This includes the safe exploration of potential reservoirs, their development with drilling technologies, their treatment in terms of technical engineering, the creation of a sustainable thermal water cycle or the efficient conversion of energy into heat and electricity Conclusion: The laboratory serves as a reference for the development of geothermal technologies for hydrothermal reservoir rocks 32 acatech May 2015
Potentials of Subsaharan Africa: Expectations for 2040 (according to IAE) Source: IEA 2014, Africa Energy Outlook 33 acatech May 2015
How can experiences from the German Energiewende contribute to the evelopment of the energy system in Africa? The Energiewende is based to a large extent on relatively small-scale, decentralized solutions such as PV-battery systems and biogas plants. These can be adapted for use in off-grid or mini-grid systems. Mini-grid or off-grid solutions may be more attractive due to their faster deployment. Also, they do not require any excess generation capacity. Furthermore, such solutions often ensue significant potential for local business-building and job creation. However, the key challenges here could include the requirement of significant initial capital investments, and of capabilities to set up and maintain these systems. Financial cooperation by e. g. the KfW Development Bank has been extremely successful. 34 acatech May 2015
Excellent example from another context of renewable energies: the established program Geothermal Risk Mitigation Facility (a cooperation between the KfW Development Bank and the Commission of African Union) Smart-grid concepts including communications technology can be adapted to the requirements of rural mini-grids as well as urban systems. Additionally, Germany could provide knowledge regarding Energiewendetopics such as professional consulting services (issues of energy planning, legislative proposals to Renewable Energy Act), joint research programs as well as dialogue forums between different stakeholder (politics, civil society, academia, and business) Germany s share of the global greenhouse gas emissions is only 2% => the biggest contribution to decreasing worldwide emissions is to provide knowledge about decarbonizing energy systems Energiewende in Africa is possible if we both expand R&D agreements and strategic investment in a common future 35 acatech May 2015
Thank you for your attention!