Transforming Our Energy Economy: the Role of Renewable Energy

Transforming Our Energy Economy: the Role of Renewable Energy Stanford Energy Seminar Dr. Dan E. Arvizu Laboratory Director National Renewable Energy Laboratory April 1, 2009 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

Must address all three imperatives Energy Solutions are Enormously Challenging

U.S. Energy Consumption and the Role of Renewable Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 2006 2030 Renewables 9% Nuclear 8% Coal 22% Renewables 6% Gas 22% Oil 41% Nuclear 8% Coal 23% Oil 37% 34% increase in consumption Gas 22% Units = Qbtu/year Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 early release, Table A1 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/appa.pdf

World Energy Supply and the Role of Renewable Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 2006 Renewables 14% 2030 Renewables 13% Nuclear 6% Coal 26% Gas 21% Oil 34% Nuclear 5% 55% increase in consumption Coal 29% Gas 22% Oil 30% Units = Mtoe Source: IEA/OECD, World Energy Outlook 2008, page 78, table 2.1

Achieving a Sustainable Energy Economy Requires a National Energy Grand Challenge* Lead Coordinated RD3E Strategy in Sustainable Energy Boost R&D Investment Construct Essential Policies & Market Conditions Support Education & Workforce Development Lead Globally Promote Public Awareness & Action * Recommendations of the National Science Board Task Force on Sustainable Energy

Getting to Speed and Scale for Renewable Energy Key Challenges National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Implementing Renewable Gigawatts at Scale BARRIERS Cost Reliability Infrastructure Dispatchability Displacement of Petroleum-Based Fuels BARRIERS Cost Life cycle sustainability Fuels infrastructure Demand and utilization Reducing Energy Demand of Buildings, Vehicles, and Industry BARRIERS Coordinated implementation Valuing efficiency Cost Performance and reliability

Looking Ahead with Optimism American Recovery & Reinvestment Invest $150B in alternative energy over 10 years Create green jobs with clean, efficient American energy Double production of alternative energy in three years enough to power 6 million homes Upgrade the efficiency of more than 75% of federal buildings and two million private homes Transforming our economy with science and technology

The New Green Team John Holdren President s Science Advisor Nancy Sutley Council for Environmental Quality Dept of Defense Robert Gates Carol Browner Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Dept of Energy Steven Chu Environmental Protection Agency Lisa Jackson Larry Summers National Economic Council Dept of Interior Ken Salazar Dept of Agriculture Tom Vilsack Commerce Dept Gary Locke* National Science Foundation Arden Bement Treasury Dept Timothy Geithner Homeland Security Janet Napolitano Dept of Transportation Ray LaHood *Nominee National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Energy Efficiency 9

Economic Stimulus Through Harvesting Past Energy Investments First Generation Clean Energy Technologies U.S. Renewable Electricity Installed Nameplate Capacity Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Early Release National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Current Clean Energy Trends

Achieving the Potential Requires A Balanced Portfolio National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Alliance for Sustainable Energy Partnering with Excellence

NREL Technology Development Portfolio Efficient Energy Use Vehicle Technologies Building Technologies Industrial Technologies Renewable Resources Wind and water Solar Biomass Geothermal Energy Delivery and Storage Electricity Transmission and Distribution Alternative Fuels Hydrogen Delivery and Storage National Renewable Energy Laboratory Foundational Science and Advanced Analytics Innovation for Our Energy Future

Technology Innovation Challenges Remain The Next Generation National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Wind Turbines Improve energy capture and decrease costs Goal: 20% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030 Biofuels New feedstocks Integrated biorefineries Goal: 36B gal/year by 2022 Solar Systems Improved performance and reduced manufacturing costs Nanostructures/new materials Goal: 10% of U.S. electricity by 2025 New Supply Options New Renewable Supply Options More Efficient Buildings PHEV & High Efficiency Autos Smart Grid

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Buildings Status U.S. Buildings: 39% of primary energy 71% of electricity 38% of carbon emissions DOE Goal: Cost effective, marketable zero energy buildings by 2025 Value of energy savings exceeds cost of energy features on a cash flow basis NREL Research Thrusts Whole building systems integration of efficiency and renewable features Computerized building energy optimization tools Building integrated PV April 10, 2008

Net-Zero Energy Homes That Are Cash Flow Neutral NREL Analysis using BEOpt software for Boulder,CO climate Homeowner cost for low energy home* is the same as minimum code home Average 1990 s home * low energy home requires 65% less energy Example taken from the GEOS Neighborhood. Courtesy of Wonderland Hills Development, Boulder Colorado

Energy Efficiency Offers Low or No- Cost Carbon Reduction Options Building Efficiency (in red) represent largest No-Cost option Component by component analysis (e.g., insulation ) understates value of whole-building systems approach Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2007

Renewable Electricity Supply 19

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Wind Today s Status in U.S. 22,820 MW installed capacity Cost 6-9 /kwh at good wind sites* DOE Cost Goals 3.6 /kwh, onshore at low wind sites by 2012 7 /kwh, offshore in shallow water by 2014 Long Term Potential 20% of the nation s electricity supply * With no Production Tax Credit Updated December 8, 2008 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, American Wind Energy Association

The 20% Wind Report Informs Our RD&D The 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Scenario How it began: 2006 State of the Union and Advanced Energy Initiative Collaborative effort of government and industry (DOE, NREL, and AWEA) to explore a modeled energy scenario in which wind provides 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030 Primary Assumptions: U.S. electricity consumption grows 39% from 2005 to 2030 to 5.8 billion MWh (Source: EIA) Wind turbine energy production (capacity factor) increases about 15% by 2030 Wind turbine costs decrease about 10% by 2030 No major breakthroughs in wind technology Primary Findings: 20% wind electricity would require about 300 GW (300,000 MW) of wind generation Affordable, accessible wind resources available across the nation Cost to integrate wind modest Emissions reductions and water savings Transmission a challenge www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future NREL Research Thrusts Improved performance and reliability Advanced rotor development Utility grid integration Wind Photo credit: Megavind

Wind Integration Requires a Multi-Pronged Approach Technology Siting Systems Integration Component R&D Partnerships Testing & Validation National Data Resource Offshore Wind Technology Ocean Energy Systems Technology Policy Resource Assessment Siting Models Environmental Mitigation Wind Condition R&D Education Planning & Analysis Grid Codes/Plant Models Wind Forecasting Tools Workforce Outreach Analysis Education Workforce Development

Solar Photovoltaics and CSP Status in U.S. PV 1,000 MW installed capacity Cost 18-23 /kwh CSP 419 MW installed capacity Cost 12 /kwh Potential: PV 11-18 /kwh by 2010 5-10 /kwh by 2015 CSP 8.5 /kwh by 2010 6 /kwh by 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, IEA Updated January 1, 2009 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Growing Competiveness of Solar Source: McKinsey Quarterly, June 2008

Solar Research Thrusts Photovoltaics Higher performance cells/modules New nanomaterials applications Advanced manufacturing techniques Concentrating Solar Power Low cost high performance storage for baseload markets Advanced absorbers, reflectors, and heat transfer fluids Next generation solar concentrators 8.22-megawatt Alamosa, Colo., PV solar plant

PV Conversion Technologies Decades of NREL Leadership National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

PV Conversion Technology Portfolio Market-Competitive Targets

Module Cost Reduction Increase in inverter efficiency has small effect on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) Reliability (lifetime) has significant effect on LCOE Development of Intelligent electronics (interface with energy storage and management systems)

NREL s Process Development Laboratory Allows Applied R&D Collaboration with Industry Material & Device Concepts Device & Process Proof of Concept Module Prototype & Pilot Scale Production Lab Scale small area high efficiency laboratory processes low sample throughput no module prototyping PDIL: Development Scale commercially viable area bridge the efficiency gap bridge the cost gap accelerated throughput (optimize a process) mini-modules Industry large area lower efficiency low-cost processes rigid processes (no optimization of process) modules

Concentrating Solar Power Power Tower Concentrating Photovoltaics Parabolic Trough Dish/Stirling

Concentrating Solar Power Research Parabolic Trough R&D Optimize receiver and concentrator designs, develop next-generation collector design, and create advanced evaluation capabilities. Thermal Storage R&D Develop advanced heat transfer fluids for more efficient operation at high temperatures, and test innovative designs for low-cost storage options. Advanced CSP Concepts Next generation CSP systems and components Technology Acceptance Resource assessment, CSP penetration analysis, grid integration, land use Focus on Key Barriers Technology Cost and Performance Technology Acceptance

Geothermal Today s Status in U.S. 2,800 MWe installed, 500 MWe new contracts, 3000 MWe under development Cost 5-8 /kwh with no PTC Capacity factor typically > 90%, base load power DOE Cost Goals: <5 /kwh, for typical hydrothermal sites 5 /kwh, for enhanced geothermal systems with mature technology Long Term Potential: Recent MIT Analysis shows potential for 100,000 MW installed Enhanced Geothermal Power systems by 2050, cost-competitive with coalpowered generation April 10, 2008 NREL Research Thrusts: Analysis to define the technology path to commercialization of Enhanced Geothermal Systems Low temperature conversion cycles Better performing, lower cost components Innovative materials

Biofuels 35

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Biofuels Current Biofuels Status in U.S. Biodiesel 171 companies; 2.2 billion gallons/yr capacity 1 Corn ethanol 174 commercial plants 2 10.8 billion gal/yr. capacity 2 Additional 2.4 billion gal/yr planned or under construction Cellulosic ethanol (current technology) Projected commercial cost ~$3.50/gge Key DOE Goals 2012 goal: cellulosic ethanol $1.33/ETOH gallon or ~$1.99/gge 2022 goal: 36B gal Renewable Fuel; 21B gal Advanced Renewable Fuel 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act 2030 goal: 60 billion gal ethanol (30% of 2004 gasoline) NREL Research Thrusts The biorefinery and cellulosic ethanol Solutions to under-utilized waste residues Energy crops New biofuels Updated February 2009 Sources: 1- National Biodiesel Board 2 - Renewable Fuels Association, all other information based on DOE and USDA sources

Generation 2 (Cellulosic Ethanol) 2nd generation from lignocellulosic biomass materials, primarily producing ethanol via biochemical or thermochemical conversion Biochemical Conversion Residues Biochemical Intermediates Biomass Combined Heat & Power Byproducts Ethanol & coproducts Thermochemical Conversion Chemical Intermediates

Action of Fungal Cellulases cellobiose endoglucanase exoglucanase NR exoglucanase R NR cellulose R glucose β-glucosidase

State of Technology Biochemical Conversion

Why Follow-On Generations? 3 rd & 4 th Generations beyond ethanol Higher energy density/suitability Better temp and cold start ability Energy and tailored feedstocks Infrastructure compatibility Algae

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Wide Range of Biofuel Technologies Feedstocks Lignocellulosic Biomass Perennial - Herbaceous - Woody Ag residues, (stover, straws, bagasse) Annual Crops Sugar/Starch (corn, sugarcane, wheat, sugarbeet, etc.) Other Residues - Forestry, forest products - Municipal and urban: green waste, food, paper, etc. - Animal residues, etc. - Waste fats and oils Plant Oils/Algae Gasification Pyrolysis & Liquefaction Hydrolysis Anaerobic Digestion Extraction Intermediates Bio SynGas Bio-Oils Lignin Sugars Biogas Lipids/ Oils Fermentation Catalytic synthesis FT synthesis MeOH synthesis HydroCracking/Treating Catalytic upgrading Aqueous Phase Processing Catalytic pyrolysis Aqueous Phase Reforming Fermentation Upgrading Transesterification Hydrodeoxygenation Transportation Fuels Ethanol & Mixed Alcohols or Methane or Hydrogen Diesel* Methanol MTG Gasoline* Diesel* Gasoline* & Diesel* Diesel* Gasoline* Hydrogen Ethanol, Butanol, Hydrocarbons Bio-Methane Biodiesel Green diesel * Blending Products 41

Hydrogen & Fuel Cells 42

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Hydrogen and Fuel Cells U.S. Status 400+ fuel cell vehicles on the road 58 hydrogen fueling stations Goals Hydrogen Production $2-3/Kg for all pathways Renewables in $5-10/Kg range Fuel Cells $30/kW by 2015 5,000 hour stack life NREL Research Thrusts Renewable H2 production Safety/codes/standards Early market introduction

NREL Hydrogen Technology Thrusts Hydrogen production Hydrogen delivery Hydrogen storage Hydrogen manufacturing Fuel cells Technology validation Safety, codes, & standards Analysis 44

Renewable Energy Paths to Hydrogen Wind Solar Energy Heat Concentrated Solar Power Thermolysis Mechanical Energy Electricity Electrolysis Biochemical Hydrogen Biomass Photoelectrochemical Thermochemical Conversion Fermentation Photovoltaics Photobiological Photolysis

Advanced Vehicle Technologies 46

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) Status: PHEV-only conversion vehicles available OEMS building prototypes NREL PHEV Test Bed NREL Research Thrusts Energy storage Advanced power electronics Vehicle ancillary loads reduction Vehicle thermal management Utility interconnection Vehicle-to-grid Key Challenges Energy storage life and cost Utility impacts Vehicle cost Recharging locations Tailpipe emissions/cold starts Cabin heating/cooling ~33% put cars in garage

Advanced Vehicle Technologies Energy Storage Advanced Power Electronics Vehicle Ancillary Loads Reduction Batteries UltraCaps GM Volt Before After 48

Technology Evaluation & Integration

Fuels Performance Coordinating Research Council FACE Biodiesel Stability E10/E20/E85 Fuels Chemistry Lab Test Methods Impurities Chemical analysis Fuel Surveys Biodiesel E85 ASTM Specs & Test Method Development Biodiesel E85 NBB CRADA - Biodiesel Quality/Stability Compatibility with Emission Controls Real-World Evaluation IQT Projects Fundamental Ignition Studies Pollutant formation FACE Fuels Testing 50

Testing and Analysis Heavy Duty Vehicle Testing Vehicle Analysis Tools Percentage of Vehicle Fleet In Use (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Conventional Hybrid PHEV20 PHEV40 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Cumulative Fuel Consumed (gallons) 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 Time of Day (hr)

New Emerging Programmatic Areas Enhanced Geothermal Systems Ocean/tidal Smart Grid Focus on translational science New business models for commercialization and deployment Analysis evaluation/validation International cooperation C C C National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Evaluating Potential New Directions Enhanced Geothermal Systems Ocean Kinetic Energy Wave Tidal Pelamis Ocean Power Delivery Verdant Power RITE Turbine

Enhanced Geothermal Systems Challenges Technical Site selection - exploration techniques for EGS EGS paradigm shift from hydrothermal Creating EGS in variety of geologic environments Create a subsurface fracture system to enable extraction of heat Sufficient flow rates (80 kg/sec) Heat exchange volume (recoverable energy) and surface area (recovery rate) Minimal loss of injected fluid Few EGS field experiments yet conducted worldwide Experimental evidence of EGS well productivity, heat exchange volume, and longevity is lacking Geologic variability and uncertainty create technical challenges

FY09 NREL Water Program Market Development and Transformation International Collaborations and Standards Technical Support Industry Technology Support Industry Status New industry extracting power from natural Ocean and River Currents, Tidal, Wave, and Thermal energy Water Power Mission Assess the potential of extractable energy from water resources and facilitate the development and deployment of renewable, environmentallyfriendly, and cost-effective energy systems from domestic rivers, estuaries and coastal waters Include R&D for economic and environmental improvements to existing hydroelectric facilities and dams

Grid Modernization (Smart Grid) represents a major market opportunity e - Power park Fuel Cell Wind Farms Hydrogen Storage Industrial DG Remote Loads Fuel Cell Rooftop Photovoltaics e - SMES Smart Substation Load as a resource Combined Heat and Power

Innovative work in grid optimization, Smart Grid, and systems integration will be required Grid/utility Interoperability Power Flow Management and Electrical Storage Lack of flow control Electricity storage requirements Change either of these and the grid delivery system will be transformed Renewable and Distributed Systems Integration Impacts and Optimization Smart grid equipment and enabling functions Smart grid demonstration of multiple technologies with bulk power and optimization techniques Smart grid operational monitoring and data collection Certification Testing of Electric Transmission and Distribution Systems Smart grid conformance and interoperability verification testing Test and analyze smart grid interoperability technology

Breakthrough/Translational Science Bioscience Centers Energy Frontiers Battery Consortium Buildings Consortium National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Energy Solutions Require a New Approach Multi-disciplinary/multi-institutional collaboration Chemistry, materials science Computational modeling Biology Translational science bridge basic to applied Revolutionary opportunities at the nano-scale

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future NREL s New Facilities and Capabilities

NREL Uniquely Positioned to Address Issues Related to Large-Scale Deployment New Energy Systems Integration Laboratory (2012) will feature a Virtual Control Room for Renewable Energy technology and energy efficiency infrastructure research and visualization Systems in the loop Hardware in the loop Generation variability Dispatchability Distributed, sometimes remote sources New infrastructure requirements Intelligent grid technologies

NREL International Framework S & T Cooperation Energy Analysis NREL International Strategic Goals Achieve NREL RD 3 goals Advance RE & EE solutions to Climate & energy security issues Lead global assessments & knowledge transfer Multilateral Technology Partnerships Bilateral Partnerships Climate/ Environmental Initiatives Global Energy Assessments & Knowledge Transfer Researcher Driven Collaboration

NREL s Global Reach Integration Hydrogen Vehicles Solar (PV/CSP) Biofuels Geothermal Wind Buildings

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future An Integrated Approach is Required

Visit us online at www.nrel.gov Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Backup Slides

Key Multilateral Technology Initiatives IEA Implementing Agreements Biomass, Buildings, Hydrogen, Solar, Wind International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation (IPEEC) Policy, Sectoral Analysis, Financing, M&V, Public Infrastructure Cooperation Among G8+3 Asia Pacific Partnership Renewable Energy and Buildings and Industrial Efficiency International Partnership for Hydrogen Economy H2 roadmaps, production, fuel cell testing, demo projects Energy Development in Islands Nations Initiative by the U.S., New Zealand, and Iceland to support RE and EE use in island nations and territories UNEP SWERA Renewable energy resource assessment in 13 countries Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Biomass resource assessment Global Initiative for Proliferation Prevention Partnering with former weapons staff in Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia to support EE and RE development

Bilateral Partnerships Emerging Economies China Biofuels Buildings Wind PV Rural Electrification EcoCities Climate Analysis India Biofuels Solar Buildings Sustainable Communities Brazil Biofuels RE &EE Policy & Commercialization South Asia Resource Assessment

Bilateral Partnerships Developed Countries Denmark wind, resource assessment, RE integration, hydrogen Germany CSP, resource assessment, PV Israel vehicles, biofuels, CSP, PV Japan vehicles, hydrogen, PV, biofuels, climate issues Netherlands PV, wind, biofuels, analysis Singapore PV, biofuels Spain wind, CSP, PV Sweden biofuels, PV UAE PV, buildings U.K. wind and ocean Collaboration with many other countries

International Climate Initiatives Climate co-benefits and carbon supply analysis with key emerging economies Analysis of technology cooperation frameworks for the UNFCCC IPCC special report on renewable energy Have a large portfolio of domestic climate projects that provide a foundation for international collaboration RE and EE climate policy interactions, mitigation scenario analysis, financing options State and local emission quantification tools and training Carbon neutral communities, labs, and buildings

2009 Climate Analysis Activities with EERE Objective: Provide EERE management with unbiased data and insights on the contribution of EERE technologies to GHG mitigation strategies Carbon Impact Analysis Key Activities: Analytic support for carbon analysis to inform EERE policy decisions U.S. Economic and Energy Policy Impacts on GHG Emissions Climate Change Legislation Parallel Analyses Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Specific Renewable Energy Technologies LCA Harmonization Carbon Policy Analysis Key Activities: Policy Interactions between RE/EE and Climate Policies for the Power, Transportation, and Buildings Sectors Climate Change Policy Financial Instruments Carbon Tax vs. Cap & Trade Implications for EE and RE Conceptual Framework for Interactions between RE/EE Policies and Climate Policy Scenario Analysis of Electricity Sector Cap Level on RE/EE Technology Deployment Collaborative Analysis Key Activities: Collaboration to improve characterization of EERE technologies in energy-economic and integrated assessment models Develop set of EERE technology roadmaps/data input sheets for use in multiple models under various R&D and policy assumptions Participation in McKinsey Catalyst Project IPCC Special Report on RE

Global and Regional Assessments Regional solar and wind resource assessments with UNEP, AID, and others Global use of decision support tools and sharing of policy assessments Climate and air quality co-benefits analysis Global Renewable Energy Assessments IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Global Energy Assessments conducted by IIASA and others

73 U.S. H 2 & Fuel Cell R&D Goals U.S. Consumption Gasoline: 140 bgy Diesel: 60 bgy

Addressing the Barriers 74

75 U.S. Biofuels Current Status U.S. Consumption Gasoline: 140 bgy Diesel: 60 bgy bg = billion gallons; bgy = billion gallons per year Sources: 1- National Biodiesel Board, 2- Renewable Fuels Association, 3- DOE Biomass Program

U.S. Biofuels Goals U.S. Consumption Gasoline: 140 bgy Diesel: 60 bgy bg = billion gallons; bgy = billion gallons per year 76

Addressing the Barriers 77

78 U.S. Transportation Status U.S. Consumption Gasoline: 140 bgy Diesel: 60 bgy Source: FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program Multi-Year Program Plan 2006-2011/DOE - EERE

79 U.S. Transportation Goals U.S. Consumption Gasoline: 140 bgy Diesel: 60 bgy

Options & Technology Maturity Source: FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program Multi-Year Program Plan 2006-2011/DOE - EERE

Addressing the Barriers 81

Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide Actual Pacific Rest of the World Asia North America Europe Projected Pacific Rest of the World Asia North America Europe Jan 2009 Cumulative MW = 120,791 Rest of World = 27,306 North America = 27,531 U.S 25,162 MW Canada 2,369 MW Europe = 65,946 Asia US EU Pacific Rest of World Sources: BTM World Market Update 2007 AWEA/EWEA/GWEC, January 2009 Windpower Monthly, January 2009