A Canadian Commodity Flow Survey Statistics Canada and Transport Canada Transportation Research Board Commodity Flow Survey Workshop The Keck Center of the National Academies Washington, D.C. October 29, 2015 1
Outline Transportation Policy Drivers Freight Analysis Framework Data Dimensions Canadian Commodity Flow Survey Testing and Outstanding Issues Next Steps 2
Canadian Transportation Policy Drivers Gateways and corridors are enablers of Canada s economic competitiveness (e.g. TPP) Winston (2013): Assess network capacity to move freight (e.g. surge capacity) Concerns for the environmental impacts of the sector (e.g. GHG emissions) Heightened awareness of security and safety matters (e.g. dangerous goods) Freight Analysis Framework can inform these issues 3
A Canadian Freight Analysis Framework O/D ER 1 ER 2... ER j... ER 76 ER 1 ER 2 EX... ER i... ER 76 IM = Flow of Commodity x by Mode y from Origin i to Destination j 4 30/10/2015
Framework: Data Dimensions Geography: 76 Economic Regions (ER) OR 45 Urban Areas (CMAs) + rest of province; Commodity: Use 5-digit SCTG for gathering data and 2-digit SCTG (n = 42) for dissemination; and Modal and Routing Detail: Similar to U.S. typology with concern on how best to determine routing? 5
Freight Flows: Carrier-Based Currently, some data collected from carriers that deliver the goods (NAICS 48-49, Trucking Commodity O-D, Monthly Railway, marine): o Surveys are modal-based reflecting financial performance for regulatory purposes; o Programs include imports while often excluding own-account (e.g. private trucking); and o Non-integrated (i.e. modal segments) and incomplete weight-based freight flows. 6
Freight Flows: Shipper-Based Alternatively, freight flow data can be collected directly from the shippers (NAICS 11, 21, 31-33, 41, 44-45), for example the U.S. CFS: o o o Comprehensive and integrated (i.e. freight flows from true origin to final destination); Excludes imports but includes all modes and collects both value & weight of shipments; With policy focus on system performance, able to track commodity flows in their entirety. 7
Transport Canada Data Needs Assessment 8
Developments 2014 Nov 2015 Jan Mar May May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 9 Transport Canada asked Statistics Canada to examine a Canadian Commodity Flow Survey (CCFS) Meet U.S. BTS and Census Bureau Draft feasibility study, Canadian CFS QDRC Phase I testing of concept CTRF ½ day session on Transportation Data NATS conference, meet with BTS and USCB Proposed 2016 Canadian CFS pilot study QDRC Phase II testing of instrument Planning 2016 CCFS pilot, costing 2017 survey Washington CFS Workshop.
Questionnaire Design Resource Centre Statistics Canada s (QDRC) tested CCFS in two phases: Phase I: Discuss with manufacturers / wholesalers in Ottawa, Montréal and Toronto (18) during May: o o Activity, shipments, for-hire, routing, mode, tracking Data availability, formats, response burden and data sharing Phase II: Other types of industries in Toronto, Halifax, and Ottawa-Montréal (18) during August: o o Comprehension, recall, external records, commodity coding Tested an Excel shipping grid (thanks James!) 10
Phase II: A Canadianized CFS 11
Outstanding Issues From Testing: o Export port unknown for shipments by parcel delivery / freight forwarder (American experience?); o How to target 3PLs and distribution centres in NAICS 488 and 493, further investigation; o Issues of weight (lobster vs potatoes) and deadheading containers (empty movements back to PEI); and o Collect all shipments for reference week, assume CFS sample method reflects paper questionnaire? 12
Outstanding Issues On-going Concerns: o Data sources for local movements from extractive industries (e.g. forestry, agriculture)?; o Any consideration of tracking methods rather than modeling route assignment and distance?; o Commodity classification (SCTG vs. NAPCS) and improvements in edit & imputation routines?; and o Contain electronic collection via uploads or can it be pushed to accept unstructured data? 13
Next Steps Studies: QDRC Questionnaire and Cognitive Testing Private Trucking (to plug carrier-side hole) Methodology Study (to determine sample design) o Operational Study (pre-contact, shipping location ) o Nature of Business and Electronic Collection o 2016 CCFS Pilot Test (next fiscal year, tbd) 14
CCFS Stage 1 Sampling: Establishments Target Population = 308,203 (10% revenue threshold) Average Cell C.V. (by sample size) Scenario Industry Geo Cells Must-take n = 15,000 n = 17,000 n = 20,000 1 144 13 1,437 3,447 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2 38 13 462 1,125 1.2% 1.4% 0.7% 3 144 45 5,116 13,856... 4 38 45 1,671 4,974 4.5% 3.6% 2.3% 15
Acknowledgement Statistics Canada and Transport Canada acknowledge assistant from the BTS and the USCB during the development of a 2017 Canadian Commodity Flow Survey (CCFS) Questions? Robert Leore, Transport Canada bob.leore@tc.gc.ca Larry McKeown, Statistics Canada larry.mckeown@canada.ca 16