Cotton and Wool. Situation and Outlook Report. Preseason Upland Export Sales Jump To Record in April

United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service CWS--68 May 992 Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Report \LJ3tRT R. MA LIBRARY JUN A~ /" gg2 Preseason Upland Export Sales Jump To Record in April, running bales 3~----~~--------------------~ Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun End of month

Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook. Commodity Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, May 992, CWS-68. Contents Page Summary... 3 Textiles and the Economy............................... 4 U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook.......................... 5 Upland Cotton Situation................................ 5 ELS Cotton Situation................................ Foreign Cotton Situation and Outlook....................... 3 U.S. Wool Situation and Outlook.......................... 6 Foreign Wool Situation and Outlook........................ 9 Mohair... 2 Manmade Fibers... 2 List of Tables..................................... 23 Situation Coordinator Robert Skinner (22) 29-84 Principal Contributors James Larson (22) 29-84 John V. Lawler (22) 29-84 Leslie A. Meyer (22) 29-84 Carolyn Whitton (22) 29-82 Statistical Assistant Mae Dean Johnson (22) 29-84 Electronic Word Processing Wanda Reed-Rose Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Summary released May 27, 992. The next summary of the Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook is scheduled for release August 26, 992. Summaries and full text of Situation and Outlook reports may be accessed electronically. For details, call (22) 72-555. The Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook is published three times a year and is supplemented by a yearbook. Sub- scriptions are available from ERS-NASS, P.O. Box68, Rockville, Maryland 2849-68. Or call, toll free, -8-999-6779 in the U.S. and Canada. All other areas please call 3-725-7937. Time to renew? Your subscription to the Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook expires in the month and year shown on the line of your address label. If your subscription is about to expire, renew today. 2

Summary U.S. cotton production in 992/93 is projected at 7.2 million bales, 4, below the current season. USDA's March Prospective Plantings report placed 992 cotton acreage at 3.5 million, 3.24 million acres of upland and 25, of extra-long staple (ELS). By May 24,79 percent of the crop had been planted, compared with the 5-year average of 69 percent The preliminary enrollment report indicates participation in USDA's -percent acreage reduction program for upland cotton at 86.5 percent, up from 84 percent in the current season. U.S. cotton offtake is expected to increase in 992/93, with stable-to-slightly-stronger mill use and an improvement in exports. Domestic mill use is expected to continue at this season's strong pace. The initial projection is 9.5 million bales, percent above th~ current season. U.S. exports are projected at 7 million bales, 2, above the current season. Preseason sales for next year reached 2.5 million bales by the end of April, the largest on record and.2 million bales ahead of their year-earlier pace. Based on projections of 992/93 supply and offtake, U.S. cotton stocks could increase from 3.9 million bales at the beginning of the season to 4.7 million at season's end World cotton production in 992/93 is projected at 94 million bales, percent below the 99/92 record of 95.2 million. Foreign production is forecast at 76.8 million bales, nearly million bales below this year's record. This production level is supported by relatively favorable cotton support prices in several of the major foreign-producing countries, especially China. World cotton consumption in 99293 is projected at arecord 89 million bales, 3.3 million higher than the current season. Foreign consumption is projected up 4 percent to 79.5 million bales. Expanded consumption is expected in major importing countries as world exports are projected to rise million bales to 24 million. Total foreign cotton exports, at 7 million bales, are forecast up 5 percent. World and foreign end-of-season stocks for 992/93 are expected to rise. The foreign ending-stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise to 48 percent from the current season's 45 percent. U.S. cotton production in 99/92 totaled 7.6 million bales, nearly 4 percent above last season. Upland production rose to 7.2 million bales and ELS output increased to 398, bales. The U.S.-average cotton yield was 652 pounds per harvested acre, 8 pounds above last season. Upland cotton yield was 65 pounds per harvested acre (632 in 99) and ELS yield was 784 pounds (758 in 99). Total area planted to cotton in 99/92 was 4. million acres, 3.8 million of upland and 25,4 ofels. Harvested area in 99/92 was 3. million acres, making the average abandonment rate 8 percent, compared with 5 percent in 99. Upland and ELS harvested acreage was 2.7 million and 244, acres, respectively. Total U.S. cotton offtake in 99/92 is projected at 6.2 million bales, down 2, bales from last season. However, domestic mill use is forecast at 9.4 million bales, up 743, from last season. The rise in consumption reflects strong demand for cotton apparel and other textiles, large production, and competitive prices. Cotton's share of total-fibers-consumed averaged 74 percent during the frrst 8 months of this season. U.S. cotton exports are projected at 6.8 million bales in 99/92, down million from last season. The lower U.S. export estimate is attributable to a very competitive world trade situation as abundant supplies in foreign countries became available for export The U.S. share of world cotton trade in 99/92 is expected to decline from last season's 34 percent to near 3 percent Based on estimates of U.S. cotton production, mill use, and exports, 99/92 ending stocks are projected at 3.9 million bales,.6 million above last season. The ending-stocks-touse ratio is currently projected to increase to 24 percent, 6 percentage points under the target specified in the 99 farm bill. By Apri3, 6.3 million bales of the 99 crop had been placed under loan, compared with 3.2 million for the entire 99 crop. However, 5 million bales of 99-crop cotton have been redeemed this season. During the 99/92 season, world and U.S. cotton prices moved continuously lower before turning upward in April. Through April, the A-Index has averaged 63 cents per pound, compared with 83 cents last year. The A-Index is currently above 6 cents. Memphis Territory prices on the Northern European market have been one of the five lowest quotes since mid-february and have averaged about 3 cents above the A-Index this season. U.S. shorn wool production in 99 was 87 million pounds (greasy), percent less than the previous year. The number of sheep and lambs shorn totaled million head, 3 percent less than in 99. The average fleece weight was almost 8 pounds. The weighted-average price received by farmers for shorn wool was 55 cents per pound, the lowest since 975. 3

Textiles and the Economy Economic Indicators Suggest Economy Improving The latest cyclical decline in business activity (recession), as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, began in July 99. Growth of goods and services generat~ by U.S. labor and property in constant 987 dollars (real gross domestic product) has stagnated since that time- shrinking.7 percent in 99. Another broad measure of aggregate economic activity, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce) system of business cycle indicators--the composite index of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators--has also mirrored the downturn in activity. Each index measures the performance of a group of economic time series that behave in a similar fashion at turning points (peaks and troughs) in business cycle activity. Indicators that tend to lead at turning points are grouped into the first index, those that usually coincide into the second index, and those that typically lag into the third index. The composite index is a more reliable gauge of changes in the direction of economic growth over time than are individual businesscycle indicators. The recent performance of the composite indexes suggests that the U.S. economy is slowly working its way out of recession. The leading index has generally risen since reaching a current recession low point of 38.8 (982=) in January 99 (figure ). The coincident index was at 24.7 for both February and March after reaching this recession's low of 24. in January. The lagging index stood at 8.8 in March, up from the current-recession's low of 8.4 in February. Future performance of the coincident and lagging indexes will verify whether these two indexes have indeed reached turning points and will confirm the upward movement in economic growth as suggested by the leading index. The leading index began moving upward months before Figure Indicators Suggest Improving Economy 982 5,----,------------------------.--~ 4 3 2 Lagging 9 --+--Peak economic activity - 8 Jul Nov 98 982 Jul Mar 99 992 the end of the 98-82 recession. By contrast, the turning points for the coincident and lagging indexes occurred and 7 months, respectively, after the end of the 98-82 recession. The composite indexes have exhibited similar behavior during other recessions. Revised first-quarter 992 estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP) provide further evidence of a possible economic expansion. First-quarter real GDP (987=) was estimated to have increased at a moderate annual rate of 2.4 percent, or $28.9 billion above fourth-quarter 99. Two important components of real GDP changed positively from fourth-quarter 99. The rise in real output was led by a $43.-billion increase in consumption expenditures, compared with a $.-billion decrease for fourth-quarter 99. Real business inventories for first-quarter 992 contracted $8.4 billion after rising $7.6 billion in the previous quarter. Domestic Demand for Fibers Remains Strong Another indicator of improving business activity is retail sales, which have shown steady improvement in 992 (table A). Sales increased in every category measured for the February to April period, rising 2.6 percent from the previous 3 months and 4.2 percent from the same period a year ago. The strongest February-April sales increases were witnessed for durable goods which were up 7 percent from a year ago. February through April apparel and accessory sales increased 3.3 percent from a year earlier and were 3.9 percent above the previous 3-month period. Domestic textile mill shipments remained strong, rising by 5.2 percent for January through March compared with a year ago, and.2 percent above the previous 3 months. Shipments have generally risen each month since reaching current recession lows during the last part of 99 and the first part of 99. Further evidence of stronger domestic textile mill activity is apparent in the industrial production, capacity utilization, and unemployment statistics for the textile mill sector. Textile-product-sector industrial production and capacity utilization have steadily risen during the frrst 4 months of 992. April textile-mill-sector unemployment decreased 8 percent from year-ago levels, while unemployment rose for all of the U.S. and the apparel-products sector. Apparel retail inventories and textile mill inventories have not shown any sign of increasing during the frrst part of 992. Lower inventory ratios are yet another indicator of stronger domestic demand for fibers. Sharply Higher Imports Distinguish Brisk Textile Trade The March 3-month moving average (seasonally adjusted) of the U.S. merchandise trade deficit increased by $65 million from the February deficit of $5.4 billion. However, the 3- month moving average of the deficit is percent below a year ago. 4

Table A--Textile and apparel market indicators / Percentage change of 992 latest data --------------------------------- from a Item Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr year earlier ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer price index All urban consumers 2/ Apparel and upkeep 2/.Producer price index 982= 982= All commodities 2/ 982= Textiles and apparel 2/ 982= Real disposable per capita income 987 $ Unemployment All U.S. sectors Textile mill products Apparel products Industrial production All U.S. sectors Textile mill products Apparel products Capacity utilization All U.S. sectors Textile mill products Apparel products Sales U.S. retail Apparel & accessory retail Textile mill shipments Inventories, end-of-month Textile mll products 3/ Inventory/shipments Apparel & accessory retail Inventory/sales Textile trade 4/ Percent Percent Percent 987= 987= 987= 987= 987= 987= Million$ Mill ion $ Million$ Mill ion$ Ratio Million$ ratio 38. 27.9 5.6 6.9 3,98 7. 8.2 38.6 3.2 6. 7.5 4,44 7.3 8.4 39.3 33.4 6. 7.5 4,2 7.3 6.9. 39.5 33.3 6.3 7.6 NA 7.2 5.7.5 6.6 7.2 7.6 8.2 3. 4.6 5.5 5.7 97.5 97.5 97.6 97. 78. 78.3 78.4 78.7 86.9 88. 88.7 88.8 74.7 74.6 74.6 74. 55A657 58A3 56A69 58A3 o,78 o,289 o,63 o,293 5,65 5,627 5,695 NA 8J89 8J8 8J 756 NA.56.56.55 NA 9A67 9~754 2~7 NA ~.43 ~.38 ~.46 NA Imports., lbs. 527,5 439,53 492,44 Exports, lbs. 84,66 94,828 22,697 Foreign currency price index 5/ Imports. All commodities 985= 89.9 Textiles 985= 5. NA NA +3.2 +2.5 +.3 +.4 +.4 +9. -8. +4. +2.5 +8.7 +4. +. +7.4 +2.8 +4.4 +2.6 +5.5 -.7 -.9 +2.7 +. 7 +44. +3. Exports All commodities 985= 86 8 2 4 Textiles 985=.2 +5.2 + NA ~-N~t-~~~it~bi;: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- t ~easonally adl ~sted unle~s stated otherwis~.. 2/ Not seasonally adjusted. 3/ Includes mate~als and supp es, work n progress, and fnshed goods. 4/ Raw fiber equivalent. 5/ Frst quarter 992: January, February, and March. U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve System. +.9 +7.6 By contrast, the textile trade deficit for the first 3 months of 992 increased significantly from year ago. The cwnulative textile trade deficit was 3 percent above frrst-quarter 99. Cumulative textile imports for January through March were.459 billion pounds of raw fiber equivalent, 23 percent (277 million pounds) above first-quarter 99. The largest absolute increase occurred for apparel, up 57 million pounds (24 percent) from January-March 99 to 89 million pounds. Imports of floor coverings demonstrated the largest relative increase of 43 percent (4 million pounds). ~umulative exports also rose for first-quarter 992, increasm~?o million pounds (4 percent) from year ago to 592?Iillion pounds. Shipments of apparel grew smartly, showmg the largest absolute increase, 38 million pounds (36 per ~t), from first-quarter 99 to 48 million pounds so far tlus year. Exports of floor coverings demonstrated the largestrelative increase of 4 percent (26 million pounds). Firstquarter 992 shipments of yarn, thread, and fabric were essentially unchanged from a year ago--up million pounds to 335 million. U.S. Cotton Situation and Outlook Upland Cotton Situation Final Production Largest Since 937 Final99-crop data released in May placed U.S. upland cotton production at 7.2 million bales, 4 percent above 99 and the largest crop in over 5 years. Planted area in 99 totaled 3.8 million acres, up 4 percent The increase in acreage, as well as weather-related problems in Texas this season, led to a larger U.S. abandonment rate of 8 percent (5 percent in 99). Excluding Texas, upland cotton acreage abandonment was 2.5 percent, reflecting the excellent harvesting period. Harvested area was 2.7 million acres. The U.S.-average lint yield in 99 rose 8 pounds to 65 pounds per harvested acre, 3 pounds above the previous 5-year average (table B). Upland cotton production in the Southeast and Delta jumped 9 and 3 percent, respectively, while the Southwest and 5

Table B--Final 99 and 99 upland cotton acreage, yield, and production / -- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Region Planted Harvested Yield Production ---, acres--- Lbs./acre, bales Southeast 2/: 99,33,23 53,242 99,579,566 724 2,36 Delta 3/: 99 3,583 3,5 672 4,97 99 4,72 3,967 774 6,395 Southwest 4/: 99 5,882 5,37 478 5,348 99 6,742 5,782 4 4,95 West 5/: 99,59,5,65 3,64 99,49,4,22 3,59 Total: 99 2,7,55 632 5,47 99 3,82 2,76 65 7,26 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Based on May Crop Production report. 2/ Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. 3/ Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. 4/ Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. 5/ Arizona, California, and New Mexico. West declined 7 and 4 percent in 99. Five States (all in the Delta and Southeast) produced record yields: Mississippi (888 pounds per harvested acre); Louisiana (828); Georgia (82); South Carolina (786); and Virginia (765). California also produced its second highest yield on record,,252 pounds per harvested acre. Along with these excellent yields, eight States reported their highest output in over 35 years, with three of these (Louisiana, Tennessee, and Florida) producing their largest cotton crop ever. Mill Consumption Continues Strong Despite the slow recovery of b.:! U.S. economy, consumer demand for cotton products has kept domestic mills operating at a healthy pace. During the first 9 months of the 99/92 season, domestic mills used 7.6 million 48-lb. bales of upland cotton, compared with 6.356 million for the same period a year earlier. Upland mill use in 99!92 is estimated at 9.335 million bales, up 743, from final 99/9. Based on the actual and expected monthly mill use patterns thus far this season, domestic consumption has proved consistent with the forecast (figure 2). On May 28, 992, the Department of Commerce released its April consumption data. During April, U.S. mills consumed 88, bales of upland cotton, similar to the March figure but up from an estimated 745, bales in April99 (figure 3). Since the beginning of 99, upland's share of fibers used on the cotton system has ranged between 73 and 75 percent In April, the share was in the middle of the range at 74. percent. Along with strong consumer demand, weaker cotton prices have helped support this season's consumption and market share. Mill-delivered prices for strict-low-middling -/6 inch cotton have recently increased from a 5-year low of 57 cents per pound (64 cents on a raw-fiber-equivalent basis) in February. By April, mill-delivered prices rose to 63 cents (7 cents on a raw-fiber-equivalent basis), but still remain 8 6 4 2 Figure 2 Upland Mill Use On Target for 9.3-Million-Bale Season, 48-lb. bales - Actual D Expected Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr 99/92 Based on USDA's May forecast and estimates of Census data. 6 Figure 3 Upland Mill Use and Share Remain High Jun 5 7 4~~~~~n~~~~~~~~~~U ~~r69 Aug I Nov 9 Feb May Aug 9 Nov Feb Mar 92 Cotton's share of total fibers used on the cotton system. 7 6

below the competition (figure 4). Since February, polyester prices have inched higher as well, and are currently 77 cents per pound (raw-fiber-equivalent basis). The cotton/polyester price ratio in April was at its highest since December 99. In April, the ratio was.9, indicating that cotton continues to have the competitive advantage. Despite the recent price rise, mill business remains robust and is expected to continue as demand for denim and athletic wear remains strong. Upland Cotton Exports Below Last Season Upland exports for 99/92 are estimated at 6.5 million bales, compared with exports of7.4 million last season. Although a record foreign production has dampened the U.S. export potential this season, the competitiveness provisions of the 99 farm bill buoyed exports. 4 3 2 9 8 7 6 Figure 4 Cotton Price Turns Upward, Polyester Inches Up Cents/lb. Rayon Polyester Cotton 5+-,~-.--~,---~_,~,-,-+-,-,-.-,~ Aug Nov I 9 Raw-fiber-equivalent basis. 8 6 Feb May Aug Nov Feb 92 May I 9 Figure 5 Upland Exports Continue To Meet Expectations, running bales DExpected -Actual Table c--u.s. cotton export shares to selected countries -~------------------------------------------------------- Country 988/89 989/9 99/9 99/92 / --------------------------------------------------------- Percent Japan 4 5 49 43 Korea 6 67 6 54 Taiwan 4 25 33 25 Hon~ Kong 8 2 26 27 Ita y 6 29 3 7 France 3 2 2 Germany 24 36 22 Portugal 3 6 8 6 Indonesia 28 39 36 45 Thailand 4 3 23 24 China 69 36 56 85 World 24 32 34 3 / Based on estimates as of May, 992. Export shipments for the current season through April were 4.7 million running bales. Although well below last year's pace, upland seasonal shipment patterns through April (based on the season estimate) are nearly identical to actual shipments thus far. If upland exports continue near the monthly seasonal expectations, the season total will reach the 6.5-million-bale estimate (figure 5). The lower U.S. export estimate this season is attributable to a very competitive world trade situation as abundant supplies in foreign countries became available for export. The U.S. share of world cotton trade is expected to decline from last season, but remain near 3 percent While export shares to most U.S. customers are declining this year, U.S. shares to China and Indonesia are anticipated to rise dramatically (table C). Cotton Prices Begin Moving Higher During the season, world cotton prices moved continuously lower before turning upward in April. Through April, the A and B-Indexes averaged 63 and 6 cents per pound, respectively, compared with 83 and 78 cents last year. The A-Index is currently above 6 cents, while the B-Index is near 54-cents. Memphis Territory (MT) quotes, the cheapest U.S. A-type cotton, have remained in the A-Index since February 8. Prior to this date, the MT quote moved sporadically in and out of the Index. Through April, however, the MT quote averaged 66 cents per pound--3 cents above the A-Index average (figure 6). Currently, the MT quote is near 6 cents per pound. 4 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 99/92 Among the B-type cotton quotes, the U.S. Orleans{fexas (O{f) quote remains out of the B-lndex, primarily reflecting a strong domestic demand for this type. Since January, the orr quote exceeded the B-Index by an average of 4 cents (figure 7). For the marketing year through April, the orr quote averaged 62 cents per pound. Currently, the orr quote is near 57 cents. 7

Following patterns similar to the Northern Europe quotations, U.S. cotton prices are well below a year ago. Cash and futures prices for old-crop cotton strengthened somewhat since the season's lows of 5 and 57 cents, respectively, was recorded in February (table D). The February-average spot price was at its lowest since 5 cents was reported in October, 986. By late-may, the spot price averaged nearly 56 cents for the month. The adjusted world price (A WP) has also moved higher recently, and is currently near 48 cents per pound. As cotton prices fell this season, the quantity of cotton put under loan has risen. Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) loan entries (through April992) for the 99 crop have reached 6.3 million bales. This entry level is nearly twice that of last season when CCC entries totaled 3.2 million bales (table E). By the end of April, however, nearly 5. -6 Figure 6 Gap Narrows Between Memphis and A-Index as Memphis Moves Lower -8 25 Aug 8 Sep 9 Oct 3 Dec 2 Jan 23 Mar 5 Apr 6 May 28 Week ending 99/92 Average quotes for 9992 season. Figure 7 Orleans/Texas Remains Out of B-lndex Cents/lb. Cents/lb. 6~~~~-----------------------------,75.J~'',n In In : ll;;~~~~~~~:~lll~~ -2 Low quote minus B-lndex -4 5 Aug 8 Sep 9 Oct 3 Dec 2 Jan 23 Mar 5 Apr 6 May 28 Week ending 9992 Average quotes for 9992 season. 65 55 45 35 25 million bales of the 99 upland crop have been redeemed, leaving only.3 million outstanding. Upland Program Announcements On.March 25, schedules of program differentials for the 992 cotton crop were announced. The schedules, used in making CCC price support loans to producers, were developed using the same procedures as last year. The differential schedule is applicable to a loan rate of 52.35 cents per pound for the base grade of upland cotton. Table --u.s. cotton prices, 99/92 --------------------------------------------------------- Month Average July Adjusted and spot-market futures world day price / price / price 2/ --------------------------------------------------------- Cents/lb. Aug. 69.39 7.63 59. 8 69.2 7.7 58.53 5 64.49 67.9 56.48 22 65.4 68.33 55.74 29 65.46 67.58 55.35 Sept. 5 65.36 69.8 54.96 2 62.48 67.3 54. 9 6.35 68.22 53.2 26 59.46 67.93 53.22 Oct. 3 6.47 69.5 52.47 58.39 67.3 52.34 7 58.3 67.2 5.78 24 57.86 66.3 5.99 3 56.99 64.5 5.9 Nov. 7 55.9 62. 48.79 4 54.98 62.62 47.22 2 55.45 62.5 44.7 28 Holiday Holiday 44.7 Dec. 5 53.48 62.62 44.7 2 53.7 6.5 44.7 9 53.9 62.2 44.7 26 53.89 62.4 44.7 Jan. 2 53.9 62.3 44.7 9 52.3 6.4 44.7 6 5.6 59.22 42.45 23 5.54 59.45 42.45 3 49.63 57.22 42.5 Feb. 6 5.9 57.35 4.76 3 5.26 56.28 4.9 2 5.9 56.8 4.9 27 5.89 58.33 4.9 Mar. 5 5.93 56.9 4.9 2 5.5 56.2 4.8 9 52.49 58.25 4.8 26 54. 59.35 4.8 Apr. 2 55.29 6.87 4.8 9 54.6 6.28 44.75 6 53.56 59.24 45.36 23 55. 6.75 45. 3 57.8 62.4 46.63 May 7 55.7 6.8 47.46 4 56.88 6.63 47.59 2 54. 57.5 48. 28 54.66 58.2 47.36 ------------------------------------------------------------ / spot and July futures prices.are for SLM -/6 inch cotton U.S. base quality. 2/ AdJusted world prce is the'northern European prjce adjus~ed to SL~ -/6- inch at average U.S. producing locations.. AdJusted world prices are applicable for the week following the date shown. 8

Table E--Cotton loan statistics / ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------Loans made-------- ------Loans repaid------ --Loans outstanding-- ---Loans forfeited--- Region 989 99 99 989 99 99 989 99 99 989 99 99 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------, bales southeast 2! 82.7 4.6 46.7 82.2 4.2 353...4 8.6.4.. Delta 3!,57.8,36.2 3,498.,57.4,35.9 2,5... 988..5.3. Southwest 4/ 89. 98.6,.2 889.4 98.5 873... 28..6.. West 5/, 87.5 82.8,32. 7,87.4 82.8,237.9.. 83.9... United States 3,732. 3,25.2 6,282.6 3,73.4 3,23.4 4,974...4,38.7.6.4. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Producer and cooperative loans through April 3, 992. 2/ Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. 3/ Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. 4/ Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. 5/ Arizona, California, and New Mexico. On April 5, USDA withdrew the proposal to alter the A WP' s announcement and its effective time. No changes will be made at this time. The A WP will continue to be announced as soon as possible after 4:p.m. (Eastern time) each Thursday and will be effective from 2: a.m. Friday through midnight the following Thursday. Also on Aprill5, two legislatively mandated amendments to regulations for the marketing certificate programs were announced. First, payments under the first-handler and usermarketing certificate programs now may be made either in marketing certificates or cash. Previously, only marketing certificates were authorized. Second, user-marketing-certificate-program payments may not be made in a week (following a consecutive 4-week period) in which the A WP exceeds 3 percent of the basequality loan rate, nor in a week (following a consecutive - week period) in which the U.S. Northern Europe price (adjusted for the value of any payments issued) exceeds the Northern Europe price by more than.25 cents per pound. Previously, there have been no limitations. Ending Stocks Move Closer to Target With final production figures in, total supply of upland cotton this season is 9.5 million bales. Total use is currently estimated at 5.8 million, 5, bales below 99/9. As production exceeds expected use, stocks will improve and move closer to the 3 percent stocks-to-use target. Based on May estimates, upland cotton ending stocks are projected at 3.8 million bales, 68 percent above beginning levels. This stock level suggests a stocks-to-use ratio of 24 percent, the highest since 988/89. Upland Cotton Outlook for 99293 Production Expected To Fall Slightly The 992 upland cotton crop is expected to fall below the near-record 99 production of 7.2 million bales. Lower prospective production and acreage are the result of an increased ARP ( percent in 992 compared with 5 percent in 99) and less acreage "flexed" into cotton. USDA's Prospective Plantings report released on March 3 indicated farmer's intentions to plant 3.2 million acres, about 5 percent less than last season. Lower acreage is projected across the Cotton Belt with the exception of the Delta States, where acreage may increase about I percent above last season (table F). The planting flexibility provisions of the 99 Farm Act allowed farmers participating in the 99 feed grains, wheat, and rice programs to shift 486,66 acres of base acreage into cotton production last season. However, farmers shifted about 33, acres of upland base acreage out of cotton production. More than half of this acreage was shifted into soybean production. The net gain resulting from this program provision increased cotton plantings by 83,2 acres in 99. Preliminary estimates indicate that farmers will "flex" 452, acres into upland production, while 39, acres of cotton base will be planted to other crops. Higher grain prices and lower cotton prices in 992 reduced the incentive to shift to cotton production. However, cotton is the only program crop projected to have a net gain in acreage for the second consecutive year. Assuming that actual planted acreage is close to the March planting intentions report, and assuming average abandonment and yields, total upland cotton production is expected to range between 5.5 and 7.5 million bales. The initial Table F--Estimated upland cotton acreage, 99 and 992 Region / 99 Indicated 992 2/, acres Percentage change Southeast,579,55-2 Delta 4,72 4,5 Southern Plains 6,742 6,283-7 West,49,29 8 Total 3,82 3,238-4 / Southeast: Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Car9ljna, Virginia, Florda. Del~a: Mjssissippi, Lousana( Arkansas, Tennessee, Mssour. Southern Plains: Texas, Ok ahoma, Kansas. West: California, New Mexico, and Arizona. 2/ Based on March 3 Prospectve Plantings report. 9

USDA forecast has projected 992 upland cotton production at 6.7 million bales. This estimate was based on conditions through early May. Although it is very early in the season and substantial variations in yields may result from weather developments, 992 plantings are well ahead of schedule. Farmers had planted 79 percent of the crop by May 24, compared with the 5-year average of 69 percent On the negative side, parts of Texas have experienced extremely wet weather, while parts of the Delta have had the driest April in over 5 years. The preliminary U.S. upland cotton base in 992 is estimated at 4.9 million acres, based on USDA's May 27 enrollment report Upland cotton base acreage is up 2 percent from 99, with increases in the Southeast and Delta States more than offsetting declines in the Southwest and Western States (table G). Upland cotton base in the Western States has declined from 2.4 million acres in 985 to 2. million in 992. In addition, only 76 percent of this base will be utilized for cotton production (planted plus diverted acreage). Participation in USDA's -percent acreage reduction program for upland cotton is estimated 86.5 percent, up from 84 percent in 99. Slight Gain In Total Offtake Projected Upland cotton offtake is expected to increase in 992/93 with stable-to~slightly-stronger mill use and an improvement in export demand. Stronger upland export prospects are based on relatively low, competitive U.S. prices and a slight reduction in foreign production. U.S. upland exports are projected at 6.6 million bales, up, from the current season. Preseason sales of upland cotton for the 992/93 season reached 2.3 million bales by the end of April, the largest on record and.2 million bales ahead of their year -earlier pace (figure 8). The April jump in preseason sales was encouraged by the mechanics of the competitiveness provisions of the 99 Farm Act Domestic mill use of upland cotton may improve slightly in 992/93 given the current season's strong usage rates. Upland mill use in 992/93 is projected at 9.4 million bales, about percent above the current season's forecast Expected continued improvement in the general economy in 992/93 will likely boost upland mill use. With 992/93 beginning stocks of upland cotton projected at 3.8 million bales and production estimated at 6.7 million, total upland supplies are projected at 2.5 million bales. Based on projected offtake of 6 million bales, ending stocks of upland cotton on July 3, 993, are placed at4.6 million bales. The ending stocks-to-use ratio in 992/93 is projected at nearly 29 percent, compared with 24 percent in 99/92 (figure 9). Figure 8 Upland Preseason Sales Jump in April, running bales 3~------~---------------------------, 25 2 5 5 ~-~--~--=-~--~--~--~-~~~~~--~~~~ Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul End of month : Table G--Use of upland-cotton acreage bases by region, 982-92 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---Southeast --- ----Delta 2------- -Southern Plains 3/- --<---West 4/------ Year Acreage Percentage Acreage Percentage Acreage Percentage Acreage Percentage base of base base of base base of base base of base used 5/ used 5/ used 5/ used 5/, acres 982 85 84 3,252 85 8,884 82 2,322 9 983 88 99 3,348 99 8,869 93 2,33 984 926 92 3,462 94 8,825 83 2,35 9 985, 6 2,584 98 8,868 85 2,372 9 986,88 96 3, 76 95 8,534 89 2,237 82 987,94 4 3 673 3 7,64 95 2,264 86 988 43 7 3:74 6 7,398 98 2,229 92 989,223 96 3,868 7,269 94 2,25 8 99,26 7 3,95 3 7,29 95 2,29 76 99,3 27 4,67 6 7,224 99 273 8 992 6/,456 7 4,27 6 7,58 98 2:oo 76 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. 2/ Arkansas, Louisiana, Mssissipp, Missouri, and Tennessee. 3/ Kansas, OKlahoma, and Texas. 4/ Arizona, California~ and New Mexico. 5/ Includes planted plus diverted acres. 6/ Estimated, based on March 3, 99~, Prospective Plantings report and preliminary Program Enrollment report. Total acreage oases for 987 to present are reduced by base acres accepted into the Conservation Reserve Program with signed contracts.

8 6 4 Figure 9 Upland Stocks, Stocks-to-Use Ratio To Rise Slightly in 992/93 D Stocks -Stocks/use ratio 2 2 o~~_l~_l~_l~_l~_l~_l~_l--~o 985 86 87 88 89 9 9 92 Marketing year Estimated 99 and projected 992. ELS Cotton Situation SBcond Largest ELS Crop, Total Use Lower Final extra-long staple (ELS) cotton production for 99 totaled 398, bales, up 4, from a year ago. This season's increased production resulted from a rise in acreage and also a higher yield. Harvested area was 244, acres, 7 percent above 99 (table H). ELS lint yields averaged only 784 pounds per harvested acre, compared with the previous 5-year average of 878 pounds. While ELS output was the second largest crop on record, total use is expected below last season. During the first 8 months of the season, domestic mills used 42,865 bales of ELS cotton, compared with 4,244 bales last year. Although running slightly ahead of last season, ELS mill use is currently estimated at 65, bales, the same as a year ago. Exports ofels cotton during the first 9 months of 99/92 reached only 2, running bales, compared with 39, bales last season. At the beginning of May, ELS export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) for 99/92 were 38, bales, 23 percent below a year ago. Based on actual shipments and commitments, adjusted for rollover and cancellations, ELS exports are projected to reach 3, 48-lb. bales. With larger production and lower use this season, ELS ending stocks are anticipated to rise to 95, bales, up 3, (6 percent) from beginning stocks. ELS Priess Weaken ELS prices began the season above $.8 per pound, more than a 5-cent premium to upland. Since August, however, prices have declined and, in April, ELS prices averaged 87.5 cents per pound compared with 57.5 cents for upland. Although falling, the ELS/upland price ratio remains favorable for ELS production (figure ). 8 6 4 Table H--Final 99 and 99 ELS cotton acreage, yield, and production / s~~~;---------pt~~~;d ---H~~~;;~;d ----vi;id-----p~~d~~~i~~-- --------------::::;:ooo-~~~;;:::: ----Lb;:i~~~~--;:ooo-b~t~;- Arizona: 99 6. 3. 86 84.5 99 25. 24. 75 94. Texas: 99 6. 57. 44 48. 99 6. 57. 682 8. New Mexico: 99 9.6 9.4 47 23. 99 9.3 9.3 69 24.5 California: 99 64. 64.,97 46.2 99 25.7 25.5,8 57.4 Mississippi: 99.8.6 56. 99.3.3 59.6 Total: 3 9 8.4 99 25.4 244. 784 99 23.3 227. 758 358.5 ------------------------------------------------------------- / Based on May Crop Production report. Figure Relative Prices Favoring Pima* Cents/lb. Percent 5~~~~--------------------------,2 3 ' ' ' Ratio 8 ' ' (percent) \ 6,, 9 Pima price 4 7 Upland price 2 5~~-+-..-+,,~,-,-~_,,r,-~-,-.+ Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May I 9 9 92 I Pima (46-3) and Desert SW Spot. Although currently below the target price of 99.6 cents per pound, the 8-month-average (August-March) price received by ELS producers was $. per pound. Because the national-average price is above the target price for 99/92, no deficiency payments will be made under the 99-crop ELS cotton program. ELS Base Expands, but 99293 Plantings About Unchanged ELS base acreage continues to expand in the United States. The 992 preliminary enrollment report indicated total ELS cotton base acreage at 264,239, 4 percent above the acreage in the final99 enrollment report. Based on the preliminary data, 992 acreage enrollment in the ELS program equaled 42,853, the largest ever (54 percent). Only a small percentage ( 4 percent) was enrolled in California, as these producers continue to build ELS base.

In the past 2 years, 32 counties were designated by the USDA as suitable for growing ELS cotton. For the 992 season, USDA made two additional counties eligible. The designated counties are Merced County in California and Worth County in Georgia A total of 94 counties in eight States have now been designated as eligible to grow ELS cotton. The Agricultural Act of 949, as amended, defines ELS cotton, for program purposes, as "any pure strains of the Barbadense species, or hybrid thereof, of cotton that is grown in a county designated by the Commodity Credit Corporation as suitable for ELS production and that is ginned on a roller gin." USDA's Prospective Plantings survey conducted in March indicates farmers intend to plant 25, acres in 992. If actual plantings match farmers' March intentions, ELS acreage would rise. 7 percent above 99 plantings. California is expected to increase area by 5, acres. This increase, however, is anticipated to be offset by reductions in Arizona and Texas. Acreage in New Mexico and Mississippi remain about unchanged from last season. Using the planting intentions and trend yield, 992 ELS production is expected to range between 425, and 5, bales. Demand for ELS cotton in 992/93 should improve from this season's level. Domestic mill use and exports are projected to be higher next season. At the end of April, preseason export sales for 992/93 were less than last year (figure ). However, the sales pace is similar to that of 99/9 when 45, bales were exported. Based on current supply and demand estimates, ELS ending stocks are projected to remain near this season's level. Foreign Production, Consumption and Exports To Rise The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projects that production, consumption, and exports of foreign ELS cotton will rise in 992/93. ICAC data show areversalof the downward trend in production of the past few years. Output for the 992/93 marketing year is expected to Figure 992/93 ELS Preseason Sales Trail Last Two Seasons, running bales 25~----~~--------------------------~ 2 5 99/92 5 99/9 :' 992/93 o+-~~~~~~~--~~--~-.--~~ Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun End of month Jul rise about 6 percent from the 3.9-million-bale turnout of 99/92 (table I). Production is expected to increase in all countries except Egypt, China, and Peru. The largest relative gain in production is forecast for Israel ( percent), while the largest absolute jump in output is expected in Egyptian long staple (97, bales). Total foreign ELS fiber use is expected to rise by only 2 percent (74, bales) from the current marketing year. Weak consumption growth is led by an expected 22,-bale decline in consumption for the former Soviet Union and a 5,-bale drop in extra-long-staple cotton use for Egypt India and Egypt (long-staple) reported the largest estimated expansions in consumption--up 35 percent in India (27, bales) and 29 percent in Egypt (78, bales). Table I--ELS cotton su~gl~ and use in foreign producing countries, 9-2 --------------------------------------------------------- Year be~inning 99 99 992 August est. proj. ---------------------------------------------------------, 48-lb. bales Beginning stocks: Egypt I L. Stpl. 85 87 73 India 3 395 436 Israel 4 4 Peru 6 46 4 PRC 58 65 234 Sudan 235 6 37 USSR / 38 5 87 Others 39 37 28 Subtotal 827,2 923 Egrat, ELS 73 38 56 otal 9 57,79 Production: Egypt, L. Stpl. 96 99,6 India 89 87 964 Israel 7 4 28 Peru 23 78 73 PRC 276 253 97 Sudan 65 46 5 USSR /,369,28,387 Others 65 73 96 Subtotal 3,82 3,472 3,83 Egtpt, ELS 38 43 33 otal 4,2 3,885 4,6 Consumption: Egypt I L. Stpl. 936 9 978 India 747 78,52 Israel Peru 44 64 5 PRC 5 5 5 Sudan 3 9 5 USSR /,3,235,33 Others 46 5 46 Subtotal 3,24 3,55 3,279 Egypt, ELS 256 326 276 Total 3,46 3,48 3,555 Ex~orts: lg~pt, L. Stpl. 23 8 4 n a 7 23 Israel 65 4 23 Peru 95 4 8 PRC 46 73 92 Sudan 27 6 73 USSR / 36 73 73 Others 52 64 78 Subtotal 46 445 423 Egtpt, ELS 6 69 24 otal 52 54 547 -------------------------------------------------------- / Represents the former Soviet Union. International Cotton Advisory Committee, Washington, D.C. 2

ICAC data indicate that foreign ELS export volumes are projected to increase 33, bales in 992/93 from the current year. When the expected U.S. share of ELS exports are included, total world export ttade in ELS is forecast to increase approximately 3, bales (4 percent). The U.S. market share of world ELS exports is projected to rise to 42 percent for the 992,93 marketing year, compared with 38 percent this season. Foreign Cotton Situation and Outlook Foreign Stocks To Rebound as Consumption Falls in 9992 With 99 global production up 9 percent (8.8 million bales) and consumption up only slightly, stocks are estimated to recover substantially by the end of the season. Ending stocks for 99/92 are forecast up 33 percent to 38.2 million bales, a sharp gain from the low 99/9evel. The ending-stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to recover from 33~6 to 44.6 percent, just above the 32-year mean of 43 percent (table J). Foreign exporters accounted for much of the 99/92 production gain (6.6 million bales), with increases for most major producers except the former USSR. Foreign-exporter consumption dropped slightly because of large declines in China (.5 million bales) and the former Soviet Union (. 7 million bales). But, continued substantial growth in textile production in Pakistan offset some of this drop. Pakistan's cotton consumption rose 3 percent from 5.65 million bales in 99/9 to an estimated 6.4 million bales in the current marketing year. Most major cotton importers imported and consumed less cotton in 99/92. Imports and consumption fell among ttaditional importers in East Asia, in the European Community, in Eastern Europe, and in the former Soviet Union (figure 2). But, in conb'ast to other importing countries, textile industries continue to expand in Thailand, Indonesia, and other textile producing countries in Southeast Asia, leading to rising cotton consumption and imports. Textile industry expansion in the region is being financed by substantial investment 46 4 36 3 Figure 2 Import Share of Total Consumption Declining 25+-~rr~.. -.~,.,-r,.,~-,.,~-,,.,~ 96 65 7 75 8 85 9 Marketing year Table J--World cotton supply and use, 99/9 and 99/92 / Year beginning August 99/9: su~ply-- egnning stocks Production Imports Use-- Mill use EXP.Orts Ending stocks 99!92& surely-- egnning stocks Production Imports Use-- Mill use EXP.Orts Ending stocks United Major Major Total States importers exporters Other foreign World 2/ 3/ Million 48-lb. bales 3. 5. 9.6 8.8 23.4 26.4 5.5.4 48. 22. 7.5 87. 4/ 4.6 3.2 6.2 24. 24. 8.7 5.6 39.4 2.9 76.9 85.6 7.8.9 7.4 7. 5.3 23. 2.3 4.5 3.8 8. 26.4 28.7 2.3 4.5 3.8 8. 26.4 28.7 7.6.4 54.3 2.9 77.6 95.2 4/ 3.9.9 7.3 23. 23. 9.4 4.7 38.9 22.7 76.3 85.7 6.8.8 9. 6.4 6.2 23. 3.9 4.2 2.8 8.3 34.3 38.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NA- Not available. / Based on May, 992, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, 99/92 projected. Totals may not add and stocks may not balance because of rounding, a small quantity of cotton destroyed, and unaccounted differences. 2/ Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan. 3/ Australia, China, Central America, Egypt( Mexico, Pakistan, Sudan, Turkey, and the former USSR. 4/ Less than 5, ba es. 3

in fmishing industries by the traditional Asian textile-producing countries, with whom they compete. Consumption and imports in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have been on a generally downward trend since 986/87. Factors contributing to the decline include: () reduced textile production resulting from increasing competition from imports from emerging textile competitors such as Pakistan, China, and Thailand; (2) rising domestic labor costs and increasing development of lower- cost textile industries in neighboring countries; and, (3) appreciation of domestic currencies against the dollar, raising the price of textile exports. South Korean consumption and imports of cotton continue to barely hold their own against similar factors. The EC is combating the increasing import competition in textiles since 986/87 and the sluggish world economy this season. The countries of Eastern Europe are beginning to revive potential export industries. Some are importing more cotton again because their textiles can be marketed worldwide to earn foreign exchange. Others are rejuvenating nontextile industries and importing more textiles, but less cotton. The degree of decline in 99/92 consumption in the former Soviet Union awaits further developments, although the direction is clearly downward. The nine noncotton-producing republics of the former USSR account for most of the cotton consumption and imports. During calendar year 99, these nine countries obtained cotton from the Central Asian Republics through barter arrangements. The slip in consumption in early 99/92 reflects the general disorganization and inefficiency created by reforms. But, in the latter part of 99/92, cotton consumption is reportedly falling more rapidly. Apparently, in early calendar 992 these nine former Soviet republics stopped bartering grain to Central Asia. Although current estimates of consumption and imports do not reflect a dramatic change, this action evidently has led to a cotton shortage and has even threatened closure of textile industries in the nine countries, unless supplies are restored quickly. The resolution of the problem is not yet evident. But, because the former USSR consumes about -percent of the world's total cotton consumption, a sudden shift in suppliers would have implications for 992/93 global consumption and trade. Beginning July 9, USDA's accounting IUlit, "total fo~er Sov~et Unio~" will be replaced by two new Wlits: FSU-2 and the Baltlcs. This data will exclude internal trade between the two entities, so that the "use" data for the two new IUlits will equal the previous whole. Ultimately, USDA intends to account for each of the 5 republics separately. At this time, intra-republic trade will have to be added to the database in order for each individual country's supply and use to balance. Despite Lower 99293 Production, Stocks Are Projected To Rise Again World and foreign cotton production for 992/93 are projected to be about million bales lower than 99/92. World production is placed at 94 million bales and foreign output at 76.8 million (figure 3). Consumption for each is projected to rise 4 percent, reaching 89 million bales for the world and 79.5 million for foreign. Yet, world and foreign production will be the second largest on record and consumption growth is likely to be insufficient to prevent stocks from rising again. Global ending stocks are projected up 3 percent to 43 million bales, with foreign ending stocks accounting for a gain of nearly 2 percent to 38.3 million. These stocks will be the highest since the surpluses of 98485 and 985/86. USDA will release projections by country on July 9. Figure 3 Foreign Production Projected Second Largest, Stocks Continue To Rise Million 48-lb. bales ~~~~~~~----------------------, 8 6 4 2 D Production - Ending stocks 986 87 88 89 9 Marketing year Estimated 99 and projected 992. 35 3 25 2 5 5 Figure 4 World, Foreign Exports Rise, U.S. Share Slips Million bales 976-9 ~average share I.-- \ I\ I v,---- r- 983 84 85 If World exports U.S. share \ ~ Percent I-"";::::::::, I' rv' v,--- r- r-,---- 86 87 88 89 9 9 92 Marketing year 4 3 2 4

With the growth in consumption, trade is expected to rise as well. World exports are projected up 4 percent to 24 million bales. Of this, foreign exports are expected to account for 7 million bales, a 5-percent gain. Although U.S. exports are also projected up 3 percent in 992/93, the U.S. share of the market is expected to contract slightly, slipping from nearly 3 percent in 99/92 to a projected average of 29 percent in 992/93 (figure 4). Relatively Low World Prices Continue World cotton prices (as measured by the A-Index of prices on the Northern European market) fell in 99/92 until April, when they recovered somewhat April's gains mainly resulted from the withdrawal of low Pakistani quotes from the average of the 5 lowest quotes in the Index, which were replaced with higher Australian quotes. Through April, the A-Index price averaged 63 cents per pound, well below the 99/9 season average of nearly 83 cents. In March, the Index averaged 55 cents per pound and, in April, 59 cents. This season's prices are below average, which has been 73 cents per pound since 973. But, this season's A-Index remains above the low season-average price of 49 cents in 985.86 (figure 5). Despite Low Prices, 99293 Production Projected Down Only Percent Some cotton-producing countries, primarily in the Southern Hemisphere, may respond to low world prices by reducing planting. If prices are still low in October, planting time in the Southern Hemisphere, producers there would be expected to cut 992,93 area. But, other producers, primarily major competitors, at best respond indirectly to world price changes and may even raise 992/93 area despite low world prices. Figure 5 A-Index Falls Below Average Cents/lb..----------------------------------. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2+.-... ~..--~~~.. -...-r+.-...-~ 966 7 76 8 86 9 Marketing year For the 992/93 season, China did not lower its high 99/92 prices to cotton producers. And, because of China's 99,92 record grain production, grain prices dropped, making cotton attractive relative to grains. So, despite its second largest cotton crop on record in 99/92, China expects cotton area to rise slightly. Yields, however, are likely to be closer to normal levels in 992/93 than in 99/92, when yields were the second highest ever. Cotton in the former Soviet Union is produced in the five Central Asian Republics--Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgystan, and Kazakhstan--and in Azerbaijan. Although these republics are promoting cotton exports to obtain convertible currency, they have burdensome stocks from the last two seasons' crops because of difficulties in establishing new export channels. Reports from recent travelers to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan suggest that cotton area will continue to decline in 992/93. The primary reasons are severe environmental problems and competing demand for grains. These two factors will overshadow the desire for convertible currency for at least one more season. Violent protests in Tajikistan have also delayed planting there, although planting can still occur later in May. Together, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, account for 88 percent of total production in recent seasons. Pakistan's area is limited by the availability of irrigation facilities. In 99/92, lucrative cotton prices led to some switching of area from competing crops to cotton. Additionally, Pakistan expanded planting of several new, higheryielding cotton varieties in 99/92. Even if 992/93 producer prices are lower, use of the new varieties is expected to continue to expand. Low Prices Contribute To 99293 Consumption Gains In 992/93, consumption and imports are expected torespond to low world prices. Four-percent growth is projected in 992/93 foreign consumption and imports, a much more modest response than in the last low-price year, 985/86. Then, as now, the growth reflects larger use among both exporters, who will consume more of their own rising supplies, and importers, who build stocks when prices are low (figure 6). In 985/86, foreign consumption rose percent, a 5-percent gain among foreign importers and a 4-percent gain among foreign exporters. Imports also gained 4 percent that year, and another 2 percent in 986/87, before prices began to rise again. 5

Figure 6 Foreign Consumption To Rise Million bales 8 8 75 7 7 6 65 5 6 4 m~ M ~ ~ ~ M ~ ~ ~ ~ Marketing year U.S. Wool Situation and Outlook Smaller Wool Supply The total 992 supply of raw wool was estimated to be 82 million pounds (clean) (table K). Stocks at the beginning of the year totaled 36 million pounds. Estimated 992 shorn production of 46 million pounds (clean) was down percent from the previous year, reflecting reduced sheep numbers. U.S. shorn wool production in 99 was 87 million pounds (greasy),.2 percent below 99 and 2.5 percent below 989. The weighted-average price received by farmers was $.55, the lowest price since 975 ($.447). The farm value of the 99 clip was $46.8 million. About.9 million sheep were shorn, 2.9 percent less than 99 and 3.6 percent less than 989. The average weight per fleece was almost 8 pounds,.8 percent above the previous year. Ten States produced almost three-fourths of the 99 clip: Texas Wyoming California Montana Colorado South Dakota Utah New Mexico Iowa Oregon 9.2 percent 9.5 percent 8.2percent 7.5 percent 6.6percent 6.5 percent 5.3 percent 4.7percent 3.6percent 3.3 percent Appendix table 29 shows the 25 States having sheep operations with the largest average raw wool production in 99. The operations range from an average of 245 pounds (greasy} in Missouri to 5,899 in Wyoming. The States with the largest raw wool output per sheep operation are the Rocky Mountain States, Texas, the Dakotas, and California (figure 7). The American Sheep Industry Association estimated the 992 domestic clip to be 88.3 million pounds. The distribution by grade was estimated to be: 64's-and-finer (22 micron and finer) 6's-62's (22-25 micron) 58's-56's (25-28 micron) 54's-5's (28-3 micron) 48's-and-coarser (3 micron and coarser) 27.5 percent 28.6 percent 24.9 percent 5. percent 4.percent U.S. raw wool imports in the frrst quarter of 992 were 25.6 million pounds (clean), 7 percent above the fourth quarter and percent more than a year earlier (table L). Raw wool imports of the grades 48's-and-fmer were 9.6 million pounds, 6 percent above first-quarter 99. More than 9 percent came from three countries: Australia, 82 percent; Uruguay, 5 percent; and New Zealand, 4 percent. Table K--Wool supply and disappearance, clean content, 985-92 / ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 985 986 987 988 989 99 99 / 992 / ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill ion pounds Stocks, January 5.6 5.6 46.8 45.3 55.9 69.3 52.8 36 Producton 47. 45.3 45.3 48. 47.8 47.2 46.7 46 lmj?orts 79.5 97. 5. 96.7 6.9 7.7 86.5 Differences 2/ -9.6-8.6-8. -.2-5.4. 5. Total supply 68.6 84.3 89. 89.8 25.2 88.2 9. 82 Mill use 6.6 36.7 42.8 32.7 34.7 32.7 5.5 45 Exports.4.8..2.2 2.7 3.9 4 Total use 8. 37.5 43.8 33.9 ~35.9 35.4 55.4 49 Stocks December 3 5.6 46.8 45.3 55.9 69.3 52.8 35.6 33 / Estimated by USDA. 2/ Unaccounted differences. All projections are rounded. Sources: USDA and Bureau of the Census. 6

Figure 7 State Average Raw Wool Production per Sheep Operation, 99, pounds 6T.==-~------------------------------~ 5 4 3 2 WY NM AZ CO NV MO UT TX SO CA NO KS OR AK Table L--u.s. mill consumption of raw wool, clean basis, 984-92 Year Jan.-Dec.: 984 985 986 987 988 989 99 99 Jan.-Mar.: 984 985 986 987 988 989 99 99 992 / Apr.-June: 984 985 986 987 988 989 99 99 Apparel wool 28,982 6,5 26,768 29 677 7:69 2,534 2,622 37,87 36,623 26,846 32,465 33,8 3,925 33,987 3,5 3,582 36,693 36,252 27,882 33,653 34,75 3,87 3,875 3,726 37 Carpet wool, pounds 3,88,562 9,96 3,92 5,633 4,22 2,24 4,352 3,438 3, 2,583 2,828 4,479 3,294 3,9 3,85 4,598 3,94 2,537 2,387 3,333 3,89 3,979 2,95 3,8 Total 42,7 6,63 36,728 42,769 32,72 34,656 32,746 5,539 4,6 29,846 35,48 36,629 35,44 37,28 35,422 34,667 4,29 4,92 3,49 36,4 37,58 33,96 35,854 34,676 4,229 Jutrsept.: ~9~~ 986 29,326 25,25 2,72 2,887 32,47 27,92 987 3,6 2 739 32,845 988 3,4 3,'748 33, 789 989 27,427 4,44 3,84 27,867 3,865 3,732 99 26,888 3,25 3,3 99 34,578 4,56 39,39 Oct. -Dec.: 984 26,78 2, 989 29,77 985 26,298 2,38 28,436 986 3,544 2,25 32,795 987 3,66 3,83 34,843 988 28,63 2,92 3,55 ~g~g ~~:28f ~:~~~ ~~:r~~ 99 33,96 3, 588 37,54 --;i-p~~ii~i~~~;: ------------------------------------ Bureau of the Census. Imports of unimproved and other grades not-finer-than-46's totaled 6 million pounds, 32 percent higher than a year earlier. Virtually all came from three countries: New Zealand, 77 percent; the United Kingdom, 7 percent; and Argentina, 3 percent 'The share ofraw wool imports not-finer-than-46's entering through the New England and Middle Atlantic customs districts in the first quarter exceeded the share of the finer-than- 48's (table M). In the first quarter about 63 percent of the grades not-finer-than-46's entered through the New England and Middle Atlantic regions, compared with percent of the grades 48's-and-fmer. By contrast, the South Atlantic and other customs districts received 9 percent of the 48'sand-fmer grades, compared with 37 percent of the 46's- andcoarser grades. In the first quarter of 992, raw wool mill consumption was 4.3 million pounds (clean), percent above the fourth quarter and 9 percent more than a year earlier (table N). Worsted-system mill consumption was 2.7 million pounds, 5 percent above the fourth quarter and 5 percent more than a year ago. The woolen system used 6. million pounds, 2 percent above the fourth quarter and 8 percent more than a year earlier. Carpet mill use was 4.6 million pounds, 28 percent more than the fourth quarter. Raw wool exports in the first quarter were 755, pounds (clean), 7 percent below the fourth quarter but 44 percent above a year earlier (figure 8). This relatively high level in recent years has resulted from strong promotional efforts overseas by domestic trade associations, wholesalers, and others. Overseas shipments of shorn wool amounted to 593, pounds. About 4 percent went to Japan, 33 percent to Germany, and 4 percent to the United Kingdom. Exports of raw-wool-not-shorn (pulled wool) were 62, pounds. About 42 percent went to Japan, 29 percent to Germany, and 2 percent to Belgium. Exports of carbonized wool were, pounds. Exports of wool top in the first quarter were 3. million pounds, 5 percent below fourth quarter, and 5 percent below a year ago. 'The average price was $2.79 per pound and the value was $8.7 million. Four countries were the destination of 84 percent: Korea, 46 percent; China, 23 percent; Venezuela, 9 percent; and Japan, 6 percent. Top production in the first quarter was 9.5 millon pounds, almost 7 percent above the fourth quarter and 4 percent above a year earlier. U.S. prices for clean, mill-delivered territory raw wool increased 7-25 percent from January into mid-may. By the middle of the second quarter, the 64's rose from $.93 to $2.25 per pound, the 62's were $2.3 (up from $.63), and the 6's were $.8 (up from $.43). For the medium grades, the 58's were $.63 (up from $.29) and the 56's 7

earlier (table ). The weighted-average price received by fanners in 99 was $.55 per pound (greasy basis), compared with $.8 in 99 and $.24 in 989. Table M--U.S. imports of raw wool for consumption, clean content, 985-92 ------------------------------------------------------------- Domestic prices for fmer grade Australian wool in mid-may were mixed from the January-February level. This move- 48's- Not-finer- Year and-finer / than-46's 2/ Misc. 3/ Total -------------------------------------------------------------, pounds Jan. -Dec.: 985 5,64 29,38 NA 79,472 986 66,9 3,9 NA 96,99 987 74,54 3,66 NA 5,2 988 72,323 24,48 NA 96,74 989 77,3 29,889 48 6,94 99 5,328 2,355 33 7,76 99 68,242 8,66 47 86,456 Jan.-Mar.: 985 5 I 69 7,397 NA 22,536 986 9,749 6,9 NA 26,658 987 2,434 5,85 NA 26,239 988 26,763 6,753 NA 33,56 989 2,66 8,85 28,982 99 4,466 6,697 33 295 99 8,375 4,65 5 22,986 992 9,565 6,6 25,625 Apr.-June: 985 9 66 7,95 NA 7,62 986 6:744 7,4 NA 24,45 987 2,829 9,26 NA 3,954 988 9 5 5,965 NA 25,5 989 22,57 9,265 7 3,789 99,962 7,7 8,32 99 6,422 4,545 2,967 Julrsept: 85 573 7,58 NA 8,73 986 2:922 8,235 NA 2,57 987 3,974 976 NA 23 735 988 9 94 6,4 NA 6:8 989 5:328 5,5 3 2,859 99 9 67 4,275 3,882 99 6:426 4,48 42 2,66 Oct. -Dec.: 985 3,79 6,83 NA 2,593 986 6,676 8,355 NA 25,32 987 7,88 6,374 NA 24,92 988 6,47 5,558 NA 22,28 989 9,2 6,39 25,32 99 5,293 3,34 8,67 99 7,8 4,868 2,887 ------------------------------------------------------------- NA =Not available. Numbers may not add due to rounding. / Formerly "Dutiable." 2/ Formerly "Duty-free." 3/ Raw wool, not carded or combedf but processed beyond the degreased condition e.g. dyed. he grade is not identified Harmonized TSUSA 56.2.6, 5.29.6 and, 5.3.66. Bureau of the Census. ment reflected a somewhat slow overseas market after the Easter recess. The 8's remained steady at $3.3, while the 7's at $2.86 declined percent. The 64's at $2.52 declined more than 3 percent. The 62's at $2.33 were down 5 percent. The 58's at $2.4 were off almost 6 percent, while the 56's at $2. declined 4 percent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that wool producers will receive about $3 million in 99 marketingyear price support payments on shorn and pulled wool. The 99 support price for shorn wool was $.88 per pound, as determined by the National Wool Act of 954. The 99 national-average market price for shorn wool was $.55 per pound, $.33 less than the support price. The 99 shorn wool payment of24.8 percent was the percentage required to raise the average price received by all producers up to the support price. The payment rate is applied to the net proceeds received by producers for shorn wool sold during the marketing year. Figure 8 Top Imports Jump While Top Exports Weaken Million pounds (clean).,.---------------------, Top production ~------------------------------. ~----... _ -- top exports. Raw wool exports/ - -..,', -. / Top imports / ",.J. ------.-.,---.---,--.----r-.-----.--.---.---.-.--~ Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 989 9 9 92 Table N--Raw wool imports by region, 987-92 / ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Not-finer-than-46's 48's-and-finer Total Region Q Q Q 987 988 989 99 99 992 987 988 989 99 99 992 987 988 989 99 99 992 -------------------------------------------Percent-------------------------------------------------------- New England 34 3 24 23 25 22 6 3 5 9 8 2 7 8 4 3 2 Middle Atlantic 33 38 38 44 3 4 2 2 2 4 7 South Atlantic and other 2/ 33 32 38 33 45 37 82 86 84 88 9 9 67 73 7 72 8 77 Total ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Imports entered through customs districts in the respective regions. Mexican border, Pacific Coast, and the Canadian border. Bureau of the Census. 2/ Includes customs districts along the Gulf Coast, 8

Table a--average U.S. farm prices per pound for shorn wool, greasy basis, 984-92 / --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month 984 985 986 987 988 989 99 99 992 2/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents/pound January 58.4 59.2 52.2 58.7 84.8 9. 68.5 42. 3.6 February 67. 58.7 54.4 69. 9. 3. 74.4 46. 47.9 March 79.3 6. 6.9 78.7 4. 33. 8.8 5. 62.7 April 87.9 67.9 7. 99.7 53. 35. 87.6 55. 75.4 May 86.5 68.5 73.7 6. 66. 36. 93.9 6. 9.3 June 86.6 69.8 75.5 8. 6. 34. 9.7 63. July 82.3 64. 67.5 87. 34. 2. 75.6 57. August 78.5 6.2 65.9 83. 22. 2. 7. 47. September 74.3 59.5 57.6 93.6 3. 5. 53.2 47. October 8.2 66.6 69.7 95.5 23. 47. 74.2 59. November 67.5 58.5 64. 84. 9. 2. 55.9 49. December 69.4 56.8 59.4 8.4 6. 94. 47.6 39. Average 79.5 63.3 66.8 9.7 38. 24. 8. 55. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Weighted market-average price. 2/ Preliminary and unweighted prices. Agricultural Prices, NASS, USDA. The Wool Act provides that pulled wool shall be supported at a level comparable to the shorn-wool support mte in order to maintain normal pulled- wool marketing practices. Accordingly, producers will receive $5.32 per hundredweight in price support payments for unshorn lambs that were sold or slaughtered during the 99 marketing year. Payments will not be made on that portion of producers' sales proceeds which exceed, on a per-pound basis, four times the national-avemge price ($2.2) per pound for wool. Figure 9 Wool Market Indicators Cents/kg (clean) ~---------------------------------,.. South _Africa ------------- Foreign Wool Situation and Outlook The latest estimate of Australian mw wool production is.85 billion pounds, down more than 2 percent from the previous season. This smaller output is the result of a continued drought and the desire by farmers to retreat from the recordbreaking clips in 989/9 and 99!9 into the relatively more profitable cropping sector. Sheep numbers in March 992 were forecast to be 47 million, 2 percent below last year and 5 percent below the record count in March 99. Sheep numbers in March 993 are forecast to be about 45 million. The Australian wool market remained somewhat steady in. April and May after peaking in March. The market indicator (a weighted-avemge index of 5 wool categories) moved within a weekly range of A575-594 per kg in April and May, down about percent from the season's high in March (figure 9). By late- May the Australian stockpile had reached 4. million bales, 6 percent below its peak in January 99 (figure 2). Australian mw wool exports in the first 6 months of the season were. billion pounds, 6 percent below a year earlier. Six countries took almost two-thirds of these exports: China +-.-~~~---+--~----~.-4-~~--~ Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May I 9 I 92 I Auctions closed where lines disconnect. Figure 2 Wool Stockpiles Declining, bales (greasy) ~------~~-----------------------, New Zealand : South Africa - Australia ""--- - +-.-~-r~-o-+-.~r-.-+-.-4--,~-,~ Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May I 9 I 92 I End of month data. 9

and Japan, 5 percent each; Italy, 2 percent; and Taiwan, the former USSR, and France, 8 percent each. The New Zealand wool market improved in May because of a strong demand for the medium and carpet grades. The market indicator rose about 7 percent from the average February- Aprillevel to NZ57 per kg in May. The stockpile declined to 42, bales at the end of April, 2 percent below the yearend level. The demand for wool has been quite strong this season. Through March the trade purchased 92 percent of the wool offered, compared with 8 percent during the entire 99/9 season. The South African wool market in May eased slightly after the Easter recess. The market indicator averaged about SA337 per kg in May, compared with SA348 in April and SA429 in March. By late-may the South African stockpile was about 48, bales, 72 percent of the yearend level. The latest estimates suggest that the 99/92 wool clip will only be about 7 million pounds, because of severe drought there. This season's production will be about 25 percent below the 99/9 season, the lowest since 924. Mohair Stocks of mohair at the beginning of 992 were estimated to be.7 million pounds (clean) (table P). Domestic production in 992 is estimated to be 3.5 million pounds (clean). With total use projected at 3.5 million pounds, 992 ending stocks have been estimated to be. 7 million pounds. Strong promotional efforts have maintained domestic consumption at an estimated 3.5 million pounds. Most of this use is in better-quality women's coats. U.S. mohair production in 99 was 6.3 million pounds (greasy),.2 percent more than 99 but 5 percent below 989. The 99 clip value was $2.9 million. The number of Angora goats clipped in 99 was 2.25 million, 3.6 percent more than in 99 but almost 9 percent less than in 989. The average clip per goat was 7.3 pounds, compared with 7.5 pounds in 99 and 7. in 989. The distribution of mohair production was Texas, 9 percent; Oklahoma and New Mexico, 3 percent each; Arizona, 2 percent; and Michigan, percent Mohair exports in the first quarter were 3. million pounds (clean), 3.6 times greater than the fourth quarter and 2 percent above a year earlier. The value of these shipments was $5.2 million. The average price was $.68 compared with $2.9 in the fourth quarter and $. in the third. Ninetyfive percent of the first-quarter exports went to four countries: the United Kingdom, 62 percent; India, 5 percent; and Belgium and France, 9 percent each. Mohair top exports are included in the Harmonized Schedule B category, "Fine Animal Hair, carded or combed." About 566, pounds were exported in the first quarter, compared with a 99 quarterly average of 52, pounds. The average price of the first-quarter shipments was $2.84 per pound, 6 percent above the 99 average price. Eighty-four percent of the frrst quarter shipments went to four countries: India, 32 percent; Taiwan, 27 percent, Belgium, 5 percent; and Italy, percent May mohair prices remained unchanged from February. Kid hair was $2.5 per pound, young goat hair was $.8, and adult hair was $.25. The 99 weighted-average price per pound was $.28 (greasy), compared with $.93 in 99 and $.58 in 989. Mohair producers will receive about $5 million in 99- marketing-year price support payments. For 99, the mohair support price was $4.448 per pound (85 percent of the percentage of parity at which shorn wool was supported). Mohair price-support payments were based on the percentage needed to bring the average return of $.28, the 99 national-average mohair price received by all mohair producers, up to the announced support price. Thus, for the 99 marketing year, mohair producers will receive $2.475 Table P--u.s. mohair supply and disappearance, clean content, 985-92 Item 985 986 987 988 989 99 99 / 992 /, pounds Stocks, January 2 34 54 778 44 2 7 3 7 Production :99 3:5 3:99 3:7 3: 2:4 2:4 3:soo lmf?orts 2 3 7 59 3 Differences 2/ - 35 436 352 975 82-2 - Total supply :995 6:263 5,89 5,982 4,57 5:6 3:3 5,2 MilL use 7 2 3,5 3 5 Exports 8,99 4,622 4,2 4,378 :soo :6 8 o:ooo Total use 9,69 4,722 4,2 4,578 2,5 2,6 :6 3,5 Stocks Decem6er 3,34,54,778,44 2,7 3, 7 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Estimated by USDA. 2/ Unaccounted differences. All projections are rounded. Sources: USDA and Bureau of the Census. 2

for every $. of mohair marketed. Payments will not be made on that portion of producers' sales proceeds which exceed, on a per-pound basis, four times the national-average price ($5.2) for mohair. There was an increasing demand for South African mohair in the first and second quarters of 992. The cumulative clearance of the first six sales of the summer (February-June 992) was 8 percent, compared with 67 percent in the entire previous winter season (August 99-February 992). The clearance rates of the previous five seasons ranged from 24 to 55 percent In South Africa, the current (summer) mohair clip was 7.5 million pounds, down 4 percent from the previous (winter) clip and 3 percent below the 99 summer clip. The decline resulted from persistent drought there. Manmade Fibers Manmade Fiber Bus/nsss Down The manmade fiber business in the first quarter of 992 declined from the fourth quarter but was better than first-quarter 99. Production, at 2.9 billion pounds, was down 5.6 percent from the fourth quarter but up 8 percent from a year earlier (appendix table 2). Total shipments were 2.2 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the previous quarter but up 3 percent from last year. Mill consumption, 2.32 billion pounds, was 2 percent below the fourth quarter but 5 percent above a year earlier. The carpet market continues to consume more fiber in facing and backing uses than any other market (appendix table 26). In the fourth quarter of 99, this market took 733 million pounds, 7 percent less than the third quarter but 2 percent more than a year earlier. It represented almost 36 percent of the noncellulosic domestic shipments. Nylon dominates the carpet market, constituting 56 percent of the total fourthquarter use of noncellulosic carpet fibers. Conversely, nylon carpet fibers were 7 percent of total domestic nylon shipments. Nylon-staple carpet fibers were 93 percent of nylon staple domestic shipments, while nylon-filament carpet fibers were 6 percent of nylon-filament domestic shipments. Preliminary data for first-quarter 992 indicate that about 426 million pounds of nylon were used in carpets, almost 4 percent more than in the fourth quarter and 25 percent above a year earlier. The use of olefin fiber in carpet backing and carpet facing in the fourth quarter was 25 million pounds, 34 percent of the total fibers used in the carpet market Conversely, carpeting is the most important end use for olefin fibers, taking more than 53 percent of domestic shipments in the fourth quarter. Woven textile products remain the second largest market for manmade fibers, taking 25 percent of the fourth-quarter domestic shipments. The woven market used 59 million pounds in the fourth quarter, one percent above the third quarter and more than 5 percent above a year earlier. Two fibers made up 82 percent of this market: polyester, 6 percent; and olefin, 22 percent The knit market took 344 million pounds in the fourth quarter, almost 5 percent more than in the third quarter. Domestic shipments of manmade fibers to knit markets were almost 7 percent of total domestic shipments. Three manmade fibers dominate the knit market: polyester, at 224 million PQunds, constituted 65 percent of total fibers; nylon, at 65 million, was 9 percent; and acrylic, at 53 million, was 5 percent The spot price for Benzene (a basic precursor to many chemicals) rose to $.9-$.2 per gallon in the second quarter from $.-$.5 in the frrst quarter. Higher prices resulted from production outages and a scarcity in the spot market (figure 2 and table Q).). The price of para-xylene, a precursor to polyester fibers, rose to $.2 per pound because of stronger demand. The price of cyclohexane, a basic chemical used in nylon production, is tied to the price of benzene. It rose about 7 percent from February to $.23-$.28 in mid May. There was no change in the price of caprolactam but it was reported to be discounted heavily. Figure 2 Petroleum and Benzene Prices Continue Up $/bbl. $/gal. 5..----------------c::..,5. 4 4~ 3 ' ',' '--, Petroleum 3. 2 ', ''---.'. 2.. 5 H--+-t-+-t++-t-+--t-+-H-+--t-+-H-+-++--J--,--t-+-t-+-.5 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul I 9 I 9 W. Texas intermediate crude (Cushing). Oct Jan Apr I 92 I 2

Propylene, a precursor for acrylonitrile (a raw material for acrylic fibers) and olefin fibers, dropped cent to $.45 in the second quarter from the first There was excess production of propylene, in addition to a declining demand for acrylonitrile and polyprophylene. Acrylonitrile's price declined about 2 percent to $.29-$.32 per pound in the second quarter from the first because of slow fiber demand. The price of ethylene glycol (a raw material used to make polyester fibers) remained unchanged at about $.24 per pound, being in approximate supply-demand balance. Table Q--Reported spot prices of raw materials for manmade fibers! 99/92 _ ~~~~~~~---------------~~~--------~=~----------~~~----------~~~--------~~~------ Jun Jul Aug Sept ------------------------------------------------~ 99 Para-xylene / 24.5 24.5 22 2.5 2.5 2 Prohpylene / 22.5 22.5 2.5 2.5 9.5 9.5 Et llene glycol / 3-33 3-33 28 28 28 27 eye ohexane 2/.46-.5.46-.5.7-.22.7-.22.7-.22 3-8 Accrylolnittri le 8 3 8.5 9 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 3S.5 apro ac am 89 89 89 89 89 Benzene 2/.5.33..3.3.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 9.5 2.3-.8 38.5 89.8 2 6 24.36 38.5 89.26 9.75 6 24.29-.34 38.5 89.3 ----------------------------------~ ----------------------~~~----------~~~--------~=~---------~~~---------~=~---------~~~---------~~~---------~~~---------~~~ 992 Para-xylene / 9.75 9.75 9.75 Propylene / 6 6 6 Ethl ene glycol / 24 24 24 Cyc ohexane 2/.34-.39.34-.39. 24-.34 Acrylonitrile / 38.5 38.5 38.5 Caprolactam / 89 89 89 Benzene 2/.27.29.2 NA =Not available. / Cents per pound. 2/ Dollars per gallon. Chemical Marketing Reporter. 9.75 9.75 9.75 2 2 NA 5.5 5 5.5 4.5 4.5 NA 24 24 24 24 24 NA.9-.24.5-.2.9-.24.23-.28.24-.29 NA 33-37 33-37 29-32 29-32 29-32 NA 89 89 89 89 89 NA..-.5.-.7.5-.2.9-.2 NA 22

List of Tables Text tables Page A. Textile and apparel market indicators..................................... 5 B. Final99 and 99 upland cotton acreage, yield. and production....................... 6 C. U.S. cotton export shares to selected countries... 7 D. U.S. cotton prices, 99/92......................................... 8 E. Cotton loan statistics............................................... 9 F. Estimated upland cotton acreage, 99/92... 9 G. Use of upland-cotton acreage basis by region, 982-92........................... H. Final99 and 99 ELS cotton acreage, yield, and production....................... I. ELS cotton supply and use in foreign producing countries 99-92...................... 2 J. World cotton supply and use, 99/9 and 99/92............................. 3 K. Wool supply and disappearance, clean content, 985-92........................... 6 L. U.S. mill consumption of raw wool, clean basis, 984-92........................... 7 M. U.S. imports of raw woolfor consumption, clean content, 985-92...................... 8 N. Raw wool imports by region, 987-92..................................... 8. Average U.S. farm prices per pound for shorn wool, greasy basis, 984-92................ 9 P. U.S. mohair supply and disappearance, clean content, 985-92........................ 2 Q. Reported spot prices of raw materials for manmade fibers, 99/92..................... 22 Appendix tables. Cotton acreage, production, and yield, by State, 986-9........................... 25 2. u.s. cotton supply and use, by type, 98/8-99/92............................ 26 3. U.S. cotton supply and disappearance of all kinds, by month, 989/9-99/92............... 27 4. u.s. upland cotton exports by country of destination............................. 28 5. American Pima exports by country of destination............................... 29 6. U.S. raw cotton imports by country of origin................................. 3 7. Index of prices of selected cotton growth and qualities, and price per pound of U.S. cotton, c.i.f. Northern Europe, 985/86-99/92..................................... 3 8. C.i.f. Northern Europe price quotations for principal growth of A-type cotton, weekly, August 99 to date.............................................. 32 9 C.i.f. Northern Europe price quotation for principal growth of coarse count cotton, weekly, August 99 to date.............................................. 33 Strict-low-middling spot prices in designated U.S. markets, loan rates, and prices received by farmers for upland cotton, 98485-99/92................................. 34. CCC loan premiums and discounts for grade and staple length of 992-crop American upland cotton, basis grade staple (SLM -/6 inch), net weight.......................... 35 2 CCC base loan rates for upland cotton at specific locations, base mike, net weight, by season, 984-92........................................... 36 3 CCC loan schedule of micronaire discounts for 992-crop upland cotton................... 36 4 CCC schedule of loan rates for eligible qualities of 992-crop extra-long staple cotton........... 36 5fiber prices: Landed group B mill point, cotton prices, and manmade-staple-fiber prices, f.o.b. producing plants, actual and estimated raw fiber equivalent, 984-92................. 37 6. Upland cotton and manmade staple fibers: Mill consumption on cotton-system spinning spindles.............................................. 38 7. Upland cotton and manmade staple fibers: Daily rate of mill consumption on cotton-system spinning spindles...................................... 39 8. Cotton spindles in place and active, and hours operated, 989-92....................... 4 9..Mill consumption of cotton, wool, and manmade fibers, quarterly, 986-92............ 4 2. U.S. fiber consumption: total and per capita, by type of fiber, 986-9.................. 42 23

2. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 3. 3 Manmade fiber production and capacity, 99-93............................... 43 U.S. raw wool imports by country of origin.................................. 45 U.S. raw wool exports by country of destination................................ 45 U.S. trade in wool tops............................................. 46 U.S. mohair exports by country of destination, 989-92............................ 46 Domestic shipments of manmade fibers by major category, 988-92... 47 Estimated production of 25 micron 6's-and-fmer raw wool, selected States, 992............. 48 Estimated production of coarser-than-25-micron 6's raw wool, selected States, 992............ 48 U.S. raw wool production, sheep operations, and average raw-wool production per operation, 99.... 49 World wool supply and disappearance, 98/8-99/92........................... 49 Sheep population, wool production, and wool exports, major producing foreign countries, 98485-99/92................................................ 5 32. World wool trade by major importing and exporting countries, 984/85-99/9.............. 5 33. Wool sales, government purchases, and government-owned stocks, major foreign exporters........ 5 34. International wool prices............................................ 52 35. World textile fiber production......................................... 52 36 Raw cotton equivalent of U.S. imports for consumption of cotton-containing textile manufactures, 989-92... 54 37. Raw linen equivalent of U.S. imports for consumption of linen-containing textile manufactures, 989-92. 38. Raw wool equivalent of U.S. imports for consumption of wool-containing textile manufactures, 989-92. 39. Raw silk equivalent of U.S. imports for consumption of silk-containing textile manufactures, 989-92... 4. Raw manmade equivalent of U.S. imports for consumption of manmade-containing textile manufactures, 989-92............................................. 6 4 Raw cotton equivalent of U.S. exports for consumption of cotton-containing textile manufactures, 989-92.... 62 42. Raw linen equivalent of U.S. exports for consumption of linen-containing textile manufactures, 989-92 64 43. Raw wool equivalent of U.S. exports for consumption of wool-containing textile manufactures, 989-92 66 44. Raw silk equivalent of U.S. exports for consumption of silk-containing textile manufactures, 989-92... 68 45. Raw manmade equivalent of U.S. exports for consumption of manmade-containing textile manufactures, 989-92............................................. 7 56 56 58 24

Appendix table --Cotton acreage, production, and yield, by State, 986-9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Planted acres Harvested acres Lint yield per harvested acre Production ----------------------------------- ---------------------------------- State Average 988 989 99 99 Average 988 989 99 99 986-9 / 986-9 / Alabama Arizona 3/ Arkansas California 3/ Florida Georgia Kansas Louisiana Mississippi Missouri New Mexico 3/ North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas 3/ Virginia Total: Upland American Pima Average 988 986-9 989 99 99 / Average 988 986-9 989 99 99 / ----------------------------------, acres----------------------------- 35 39 328 38 4 344 375 322 378 45 296 35 24 35 36 295 349 239 348 359 624 695 6 77, 55 675 595 75 98,3,35,5, 98, 9,335,4,9 977 29 33 26 37 49 28 29 25 36 49 289 35 265 355 43 273 35 26 35 427 2 2 2 2 675 735 645 8 875 645 645 62 79 82,,23,5,23,245,88,9,2,22,23 25 245 24 248 332 27 242 29 235 327 67 23 46 32 46 77 26 46 45 535 6 2 37 2 465 69 2 38 55 525 69 46 44 2 62 6 22 379 29 455 69 24 435 42 53 55 34 8 46 62 2 37 54 55 65 457 38 2 6 5,6 5,6 4,65 5,5 6,3 4,38 5,3 3,75 5, 5,4 3 3 3 5 8 3 3 3 5 8,97 2,325,2 2,7 3,82 29 9 377 23 25,37,759 9,66,55 2,76 27 89 372 227 244 United States,8 2,55,587 2,348 4,52,344,948 9,538,732 2,96 / Crop Production report, May 992. 2/ Bales of 48 pounds net weight. 3/ Upland only. -------------Pounds--------------- --------, 48-lb. bales 2/--- 432 486 57 476 655 383 38 383 375 553,242,9,33,9,2 88 865 649 8 898 73 742 687 692 772 985,44 85,8,576,46,5,228,24,252 2,82 2,824 2,66 2,734 2,548 58 566 557 64 79 36 34 29 48 73 595 564 63 555 82 365 37 342 45 722 36 373 24 28 347 76 75 672 75 828 984 948 868,77,44 753 736 732 728 888,76,825,555,85 2,275 666 67 68 64 63 36 36 269 34 429 7 7 698 735 554 94 2 8 95 75 553 55 65 63 672 53 33 4 263 64 367 334 244 496 33 299 33 73 382 24 496 473 626 452 786 39 4 54 45 344 543 529 497 46 552 556 584 476 495 7 459 472 367 477 49 4,577 5,25 2,87 4,965 4,7 5 5 498 562 765 3 3 3 6 28 634 874 639 65 848 69 62 893 64 632 758 634 65 4,26 5,77,54 5,47 7,26 784 42 334 692 359 399 652 4,663 5,42 2,96 5,55 7,64 ~

~ Appendix table 2--u.s. cotton supply and use, by type, 98/8-99/92 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop year Planted Harvested Yield All types: 98 4 I 534 98 4,33 982,345 983 7,926 984,45 985,685 986,45 987,397 988 2,55 989,587 99 2,348 99 6/ 4,52 Upland: 98 4,46 98 4,272 982,274 983 7,863 984,65 985,6 986 9 933 987 :259 988 2,325 989,2 99 2,7 99 6/ 3,82 --, acres-- Extra-long staple: 98 72.5 98 58.6 982 7.9 983 63. 984 8. 985 84. 986.5 987 37.9 988 89.6 989 376.9 99 23.3 99 6/ 25.4 Area Supply Disappearance 3,25 3,84 9 734 7:348,379,229 8 468 :3,948 9,538 732 2,96 3,43 3,783 9,663 7 285 :299,45 8,357 9,894 759 9 66 :55 2,76 7.7 58. 7.5 62.7 79.6 83.6. 36.6 89. 37.7 227. 244. Be9inmng stocks / Production 2/ Imports Total Mill use 3/ Exports TotaL Unaccounted 4/ Ending stocks Lbs./ acre ------------------------------, 48 lb. bales---------: Cents/ - -------------------- lb. 44 542 59 58 6 63 552 76 69 64 634 652 42 542 589 56 599 628 547 72 65 62 632 65 698 659 672 725 786 89 89, 848 893 758 784 3, 2 668 6:632 7,937 2,775 4,2 9,348 5,26 5, 77 7,92 3, 2,344 2,962 2,64 6,567 7,844 2,693 4,24 9,289 4,942 5,78 7,26 2,798 2,262 38 54 65 93 82 78 59 84 53 66 22 82,22 5,646,963 7,77 2,982 3,432 9 73 4:76 5,4 2,96 5,55 7,64,8 5,566,864 7,676 2,85 3,277 9 525 (475 5,77,54 5 I 47 7,26 4.2 79.6 98.7 94.7 3.4 55. 25.9 284.6 334.2 69.7 358.5 398.4 27 26 2 2 24 33 3 2 5 2 4 5 26 8 2 8 2 33 3 2 5 2 4 5 8 8 4 3 4,49 8,34 8,65 572 578 7,567 9,82 9,788 2,87 9,29 8,59 9,973 4,6 8,98 8,443 5,529 5,566 7,334 8,87 9,49 2,8 8,532 7,949 9,493 43 42 72 92 25 233 265 369 387 758 56 48 / Compiled from Bureau of the Census data and adjusted to an August 48-lb. net-weight basis. Excludes preseason ginnings. 2/ Includes preseason ginnings. 3/ Adjusted to August -July 3 marketing-year. 4/ Difference between ending stocks based on Census data and preceding season's supply less disappearance. 5/ Marketng-year average, with no allowance for unredeemed loans. 6/ Estimated. 7 USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price forecasts. 5,89 5,264 5,52 5,928 5,54 6,399 7,452 7,67 7,782 8,759 8,657 9,4 5,828 5,26 5,457 5,86 5,49 6,338 7,385 7,565 7,7 8,686 8,592 9,335 63 48 56 67 49 6 67 52 7 73 65 65 5,926 6,567 5,27 6,786 6,25,96 6684 6:582 6,48 7,694 7,793 6,8 5,893 6,555 5,94 6 75 6:25,855 6,57 6,345 5,883 7,242 7,378 6,49 33 2 3 36 9 5 4 237 265 452 45 3,87,83,79 2,74 I 755 8 359 (36 4,99 3,93 6,453 6,45 6,2 72 77 :65 2,6,66 8 93 3:955 3,9 3,594 5,928 5,97 5,825 96 6 69 3 39 66 75 289 336 525 48 375 336 23 4-232 76 4 8 82-65 63 285 27 329 4 52-225 74 48 8. 29-8 94 283 37 7-7 - -7 2-8 -27 5-3 2-2,668 6,632 7,937 2 775 (2 9,348 5,26 5 77 7:92 3, 2,344 3,9 2,64 6,567 7,844 2,693 4,24 9,289 4,942 5,78 7,26 2,798 2,262 3,85 54 65 93 82 78 59 84 53 66 22 82 95 Farm price 5/ 74.7 54.3 59.4 66.4 57.8 56.3 52.4 64.3 56.6 65.6 68.2 7 75.8 55.4 59.5 65.3 58.7 56.8 5.5 63.7 55.6 63.6 67. 7 8. 96.9. 7. 92.8 9.8 89.9 4. 8. 97. 6. 7

Appendix table 3--u.s. cotton supply and disappearance of all kinds, by month, 989/9-99/92 / ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply Disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- ---------Beginning stocks 2/----- Mill Ending At Pu lie Other Ginnings Total use Total Unac- stocks Date mills storage 3/ 4/ Total 5/ Imports supply 6/ Exports use counted 7 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------, 48-lb. bales 989/9: Aug 632 6,79 28 7,92 392 7,484 83 57,338 6,46 Sep 626 5,9 33 6,46 63 6 759 753 492,245 5,54 Oct 66 4,658 24 5,54 4,944 :458 792 522,34 9 44 Nov 575 7 694 875 9 44 4,658 3,82 73 52,25 2;55 Dec 566 :997 988 2:55,224 3,775 579 682,26 2,54 Jan 67,87 72 2,54 229 2,743 754 875,629,4 Feb 687 9,898 529,4 36,25 69 797,487 9,763 Mar 77 8,37 675 9,763 9,764 757 997 754 8, Apr 723 6,822 465' 8, 8, 7 734,445 6,565 May 72 5,662 9 6,565 6,565 8o'o 59,39 5,76 Jun 7 4,385 9 5,76 5,77 72 538,259 3,98 Jul 694 3,34 (9) 3,98 3,98 64 44,8 63 3, Season 632 6,79 28 7,92 2,96 2 9,29 8,759 7,694 6,453 63 3, 99/9: Aug 697 2,27 33 3, 597 3,597 829 544 373 2,224 Sep 644,679 (99) 2,224 2,87 4,3 692 42 :4 3,27 Oct 55 2,54 6 3,27 5,47 8 677 82 377 79 7,498 Nov 539 6,368 59 7 498 4,587 2;85 687 78,45,68 Dec 53 9 232 97 :68 2,34 2,84 49 769,259,555 Jan-Mar 6 :27 748,555 63 2 2,87 2,52 3,6 5,268 6,99 Apr-Jun 689 5,682 548 6,99 6,92 2,3,648 3,959 2,96 Jul 75 2,592 (382) 2,96 2,962 694 29 93 285 2,344 Season 697 2,27 33 3, 5,55 4 8,59 8,657 7,793 6,45 285 2,344 99/92: 8/ Aug-Sep 63 78, (4) 2,344 2 547 9 4 9,65 35,966 2,934 Oct-Dec 593 2 35 26 2 934 3:785 3 6:722 2,285,63 3,95 2,87 Jan 62 :497 78 2:87 897 3,74 849 875 724,98 Feb 68,7 652,98 332 2,32 76 754,54,798 Mar 64 9,58 63,798 53,85 822 837,659 9,92 Apr 657 8,7 528 9,92 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Co~iled from Bureau of the Census data and adjusted to 48-lb. net-weight basis. 2/ August stocks adjusted to an Au~ust basis excludin~ 4 preseason ginnings. 3/ Adjusted to 48-lb. bales by use of monthly conversion factors for mi l stocks. I Primari y cotton on farms and in transit. Estimated by subtracting public storage and mill stocks from total stocks. 5/ August data include preseason ginnnings. 6/ Adjusted to a calendar month. 7/ Supply less disappearance. End-of-season stocks adjusted by Bureau of the Census data. Differences primarily reflect varying bale weights. Monthly data are rounded. 8/ Preliminary and estimated. 27

~ ~~=~~!~-~~~~=-~==~:~:-~~~~~-:?~~?~-=~~~~~-~~-:?~~~~~-?!.~=~~!~~~!?~-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Country Asia & Oceania: Bangladesh China Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Korea Philippines Taiwan Thailand European Community: Belgium France Germany Ireland Italy Portugal Spain United Kingdom Other Europe: Poland Sweden Switzerland Turkey Yugoslavia Western Hemisphere: Canada Mexico Africa: Egypt Ghana Morocco Algeria Other Total -- = No exports. 989/9 Staple length --------------------------------------------- -inch -inch to /8 inch and under /8 inch and over Total 4.2 9.6.2 53.3 2.5 6.9 23.8 5.2. 3.5.5.5 5. 66.4 Bureau of the Census..7 629. 25.7 459.6,44.7,245.3 8.2 287. 349. 45.3 6.7 29. 4.3 33.9 26.3 24.9 62.6 58.7 9.4 22. 97.3.8 27.6 94. 242.2 2.2 26.2 26.2 78. 6,592.2 8.3 4.8 7.5 23.8 2. 66.2 8. 4. 6.5 3. 2.6 74.8.3 56.5 2.5 22. 9.6 2.5 2..7 65.5 2.3 2.8 483.4 48-lb. bales 23.2 669.9 242.8 493.6 497. 324. 33.2 34.9 37.7 48.3 9.3 283.9 42.6 36.5 38.8 46.9 72.2 58.7 2.9 22. 8.3 3.5 96.6 6.8 242.2 2.7 26.2 26.2 23.9 7242. 99/9 Staple length --------------------------------------------- -inch -inch to /8 inch and under /8 inch and over Total 4.6 8.3 35.7 36.9 83.5 7. 8.6 83.2 9.8 7.2 5.4 8. 3.2 3.5.6 2.6.8 3..9 27.8.8 38. 28.9 652.4 37.4 72.5 267.6 5. 35 5.7 3.6 265.7 28.3 35.7 6.4 2. 25.6 266.5 36.5 86.7 28.3 24.3 9.3 29.2 5..2 35.6 38.6 2..9 3.9 7.4 238.4 6,357.4 42. 2.2 8.9 46.8.4 8.9 4..6 44. 3.9 49.7 4. 3.5 4.4 4.7 4.2 43.6 25.2 3.6.6. 23.7 368.2 42.,232.9 35.5 545.8,38.6,23.5 32.2 349.3 3. 46.9 2.4 72.2 32.7 347.7 ~t~ 33.5 24.3 22.3 3. 83.5 5.4 9. 2.8 242.6.9 32.5 7.5 29. 7,378. 99/92 August-March Staple length --------------------------------------------- -inch -inch to /8 inch and under /8 inch and over Total 3.8 73.9 9.2 44.8 249.7 54.9 4.5 96.9 59...5 2.9.8 7..3 2.6..5 5.2 6.4.9 5.2.7 67.9 5.3,64. 3.7 466.2 28. 349.6 55. 463.9 4. 4.7 92.2 3.6 2.8 35.6.9 8.2 23.2 27.9 3.8 2.2.6 29.2 87.9 53. 2.4 8.7 33.5 97. 2,975.9 35.3 6 56.2.7 8.5.. 6.6.4 2.7 5.5 2.2 3.9 2.3.2 3. 2.6.8 6.7 222.9 7.5 575.4 27.3 5.4 754.7 675. 2.2 2.6 259.7 4.8 4.4 55. 3. 45.9 24.5 36. 34. 3.7 2.7 37.9 24.2 56.3 67.9 2.4 9.5 33.5 29. 4,262.8

Appendix table 5 American Pima exports by country of destination Marketing year Country 987/88 988/89 989/9 99/9 Auvust March 99/92 ~----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- - -, 48-lb. bales---- - --------- Eurorean community: 3.5 3.2 83.2 39.7 47.4 Be gium 5.4 3.8.3 4.7 3.6 France.7.2.9.4 Germany 67.5 53. 83.4 4.8 24.8 Greece 3.2.2.2 6. Italy 27.7 35.7 69.5 77.6 5.3 Portugal 3.3 4.4 9.7 4.4.5 Spain 4.2 4. 4.6 2.4.5 Other Europe: 25.2 35.2 89. 56. 8.9 Australia.7.6 4.7.3.3 Czechoslovakia.9.4 3.8 Switzerland 5.8 2.2 32.7 32. 7. Turker.9.7.4 2.8.6 Yugos avia 6.4. 9.4 5.8.6 Asia and Oceania: 35.7 36.6 67. 82. 33.9 Bangladesh 2.4 3.2 7. 3.4.5 China 2.2. Indonesia 2.2 3. 5.8 5.6 9.3 Iraq 3.7 5.6 2.3 Japan 53. 8.2 96.4 8.5 74.7 Korea 22. 22.3 4.5 44.3 5.4 Pakistan 2.5.7 5.4.3.8 Taiwan.5. 5.6 8.4 4.6 Thailand.7.9 4.7 7.4. Africa:.3 5. 4.8 6.7 Algeria 5. 6. South Africa.3.4.4 Western Hemisphere: 7.8.9 5.7 4. 2.5 Argentina.5.7.2 Brazil 3.8 4. 2. Chile.6.8.7 Total 237. 264.4 45.9 45.4 83.4 -- = No exports. Computed from U.S. Export Sales, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA. 29

~ Appendix table 6--U.S. Raw cotton imports by country of origin Marketing year Country 98/8 98/82 982/83 983/84 984/85 985/86 986/87 987/88 988/89 989/9 August-March 99/9 99/92 --------------------------------------------------------------48 lb. bales------------------------------------------------------------- Barbados -- -- -- -- -- 4 9 Brazil -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 88 Canada 2 -- 6 -- -- -- 4 -- -- 74 China -- -- -- -- 62 49 7 -- 9 63 Egypt 75 3,6 4,928 2,978 3,286 -- 29 -- -- 58 56 Germany -- 37 Guatemala,47 -- India -- -- 8 89 37 -- 446 6 58 5 7 3 Mexico 25,635 7,24,777 5,88 9,52 32,438,726,372 -- -- 2,63 9,4 Pakistan 8 -- 55 769 72 42 89 8 825 76 232 2 Peru 2 2,983 773 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2,225 Former USSR -- 2,8 -- -- -- -- -- -- 4,287 --,56 53 Singapore -- 53 -- -- -- Sudan -- 43 2,359 2,365 2 Venezuela -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 93 Other / -- 3 -- -- -- -- 3 World total 27,5 26,75 2,9 2,9 23,79 32,894 2,62,569 5,282,749 3,54 2,73 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- = No imports. / Argentina, France, Italy, Switzerland, and Taiwan. Bureau of the Census.

Appendix table 7--Index of prices of selected cotton growth and qualities, and price per pound of U.S. cotton, c.i.f. Northern Europe, 985/86-99/92 /. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year beginning August Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Average --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents/pound A-Index: 2/ 985 56.97 53.43 49. 48.4 48.25 5.82 54.52 52.35 48.5 45.42 4.4 37.44 48.9 986 37.6 43.5 5.23 52.8 59.7 65.68 65.85 63.9 66.2 76.6 79.3 83.24 6.99 987 86.6 83.6 76.9 75.83 75.29 72.9 67.49 66.34 65.75 65.58 68.78 63.43 72.26 988 57.74 56.75 57.64 58.6 6.26 63.3 62.96 66.2 73.75 77.34 78.82 83. 66.42 989 82.97 8.45 82. 82.3 77.3 74.92 76.92 79.2 83. 86.85 9.3 9.88 82.34 99 8.97 8.4 8.5 82.72 83.6 83.36 85.6 83.65 83.24 84.37 83.76 8.7 82.87 99 72.9 69.94 67.62 63. 6.77 59.3 56.34 55.28 58.8 6.99 Memohis: 3/ 985 68.2 67.94 68.56 68.45 67.67 69.5 7.7 7.75 72.88 73.55 4.25 38.5 64.79 986 37.75 44.69 52.35 54.25 62.8 65.3 64.75 62.56 65.3 75.6 76.9 8.75 6.84 987 87.38 83.6 76.75 76.44 74.95 72.75 69.8 7.75 72.38 75.3 79.95 76.56 76.34 988 6.75 6.45 62.3 63.94 65.8 67.9 68.6 69.95 74.6 76.88 77.85 82.75 69.5 989 85.5 82.56 83.3 82. 76.34 75.9 77.2 8.5 84.56 88.9 92.69 95.88 83.57 99 8.5 8.69 82.44 83.2 84. 85.5 93.75 94.69 96.75 99.3 88.8 99 75.5 73.3 7.3 65.38 64.33 6.5 6.3 59.8 62.65 63.56 Calif./Ariz.: 3/ 985 68.55 67.38 68.25 68.5 67.7 68.45 69.9 7.75 72.25 73.25 4.25 35.95 64.3 986 36.69 45.44 54.55 57. 65.75 69.25 68.44 64.69 67.65 78.75 8.63 86.65 64.62 987 9.8 87.8 8.95 79.9 78.25 76.25 73.5 74.8 76.3 78.63 8.8 76.75 79.66 988 64.9 64. 65.94 66.3 67.3 69.3 69.94 72. 76.56 8.5 82.4 86.9 72.4 989 87. 84.38 85.3 84. 79.42 79.5 8.2 84. 88.9 92.2 95.38 95.3 86.25 99 85.45 87.3 88. 88.3 89. 9.5 97.3 96.75 97.75 9.9 99 78.5 75.94 72.45 67.56 66.75 64.25 63.6 63.75 67.3 B-Index: 4/ 985 47.3 45.35 43.6 4.42 4.83 43.5 45.4 43.9 4.88 38.7 33.3 28.77 4.93 986 27.46 32.55 4.9 43.95 52.32 6.88 6.4 58. 6.33 7.4 72.9 76.96 54.95 987 8.55 78.44 7.77 7.73 7.8 68.5 64.2 62.69 6.3 59.5 62.73 57.88 67.5 988 52.76 5.75 53.24 53.28 56.8 58.45 57.55 6.64 67.56 7.89 74.56 77.5 6.33 989 78.64 76.7 77.8 77.9 73.49 7.2 73. 74.98 77.4 8.55 83.2 84.39 77.3 99 77.58 77.44 76.98 77.7 78.25 76.72 78.56 78.24 77.86 79.3 77.5 75.65 77.6 99 7.72 68.28 64.58 6.24 59.5 55.24 52.4 5.4 52.95 54.75 Orleans/Texas: 5/ 985 6.9 6. 6.69 6.65 6.58 6.5 6.75 62.7 62.3 63.85 3.32 27.8 56.44 986 27.44 32.56 4.55 44.8 53.7 59.3 6.8 57.5 6. 68.94 7.56 75.4 54.33 987 8.94 77.44 7.4 7.69 69.65 68.9 65.56 66.95 67.38 69.88 72.3 66.25 7.55 988 54.56 53.3 54.5 55.56 57.88 59.94 6.8 62.4 67.9 7.3 73.35 76.63 62.29 989 79.5 76.3 76.88 75.9 72.92 72.9 73.62 75.5 78.87 82.65 84.5 84.69 77.68 99 76.2 77.56 77.75 77.5 75.83 76.4 82.9 8.25 8.3 8.7 76.75 78.58 99 7.5 68.3 64.8 6.75 6.5 59.3 56.3 55.5 57.55 58.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / All prices are based on Thursday quotes. 2/ The A-Index is an average of the five lowest priced types of SLM -3/32 inch staple length cotton offered on the European market. 3/ The Memphis and California/Arizona territories are based on middling -3/32 inch. 4/ The B-Index is based on coarse grades of cotton varying in staple length from to -3/32 inch. 5/ Based on SLM -inch cotton. Cotton Outlook, Liverpool Cotton Services, Ltd. (.o)...

f:s Appendix table 8--C.i.f. Northern European price quotations for principal growth of A-type cotton, weekly, August 99 to date ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month California/ Memphis Central Central Indian A- & week Arizona territory Asian China Africa America Australia Turkey Paraguay Mexico Pakistan / Index 2/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Aug. 8 5 22 29 Sept. 5 2 9 26 Oct. 3 7 24 3 Nov. 7 4 2 28 Dec. 5 2 9 26 Jan. 2 9 6 23 3 Feb. 6 3 2 27 Mar. 5 2 9 26 Apr. 2 9 6 23 3 May 7 4 2 28 8.75 8.25 75.25 77.25 78. n.75 75.5 76. 74.5 74. 73.5 73. 7.5 7.25 68.25 66.75 68.25 67. 67. 66.5 66.75 Holiday 66. 63.75 63.75 63.5 62. 63. 63.25 62.5 63.5 62.75 62. 64.25 66. 68. 67.5 66.75 67. n.75 78.25 72.25 74.25 75. 74.75 72.75 73.25 7.75 7.75 7.25 7.75 69.5 68.25 66.25 64.5 66. 64.75 64.75 64.25 64. Holiday 63.25 63.25 6. 6.75 59.25 6.25 6.5 59.75 6.75 59.75 58.25 6. 6.25 63.25 62.5 6.75 6.75 64. 63.25 65.75 63. 62.25 73.5 73.5 7. 7.25 7. 68.5 66.75 66.5 66.5 65.5 65. 65. 64.75 63.75 62.25 6. 6. 6.5 84. 84.75 83.25 84.5 83.5 84.5 83.5 8.75 8.75 82.25 82.75 82.25 8.25 n.25 77. 75.5 72.5 7.5 73.5 73.5 7. 7. 7. 7.75 7. 69. 67.75 67.5 67.25 66.75 66. 64.25 64.25 62.75 62.75 62. u.s. cents/lb. 8.25 8.25 75.5 77.5 77.5 n.25 76.25 76.5 75.75 75.5 74. 73. 72. 7. 68. 66. 66. 64.5 8.25 8.75 76.25 76.5 82. 82. 8. 8.75 8.75 8.25 8.25 79.75 79.25 n.25 76.25 76. 75.5 75.25 72.25 68. 68. 68.5 74. 73.5 7. 7.25 7. 69. 68. 68.5 68. 68. 68. 67. 66.25 64.75 63.25 6.5 62.25 6. 77.25 77.75 73.5 75.5 75.25 73.25 72. 72.25 7.5 7.75 7.75 7.25 69.75 69. 66. 63.75 64.25 62.75 75.25 75.75 7.75 73. 73.25 73.25 72.5 73. 72.25 72. 7.25 7.25 7.25 68.25 66. 64.5 64.75 63.5 74.7 74.8 7.2 7.95 7.85 7.95 69.85 69.85 69. 68.7 68.45 67.85 67.25 65.85 64.35 62.7 63. 6.95 6. 7. 62. 64.5 7.5 6.25 62.75 63.25 6.85 6. 7. 62. 63.75 72. 62.5 62.25 62.5 6.85 59. 7.5 6.75 63.75 72.25 62.75 62.25 62.25 6.6 Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday 59. 59. 58. 56.75 56.25 55.25 54. 53.5 53.5 53.25 5.75 5.75 52. 52.5 52.5 52.5 52.5 53.25 54.25 55.25 54.5 54. 7.5 7.5 68.75 67.25 64.25 54.25 63.5 63.5 63.5 63. 62. 64. 64. 65. 65.5 65. 64.5 65.5 65.5 66.5 65. 66. 6.25 6. 6.25 59.5 57.5 57. 55.75 55. 55.5 55. 54. 54.5 54.5 55.75 56. 55.5 55.5 57. 58.5 59.5 59. 6. 63.5 64. 63.5 63.5 62.5 62.5 62. 6.5 62.25 6.25 6.75 63.25 64. 65.5 65. 62.75 62. 6. 6.25 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 62. 63. 64.5 64.25 63.25 63.25 65. 65. 67. 64. 64.5. 72.25 74. 74. 74. 74. 74. 73.5 73.5 73.5 73.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 6.5 6. 58. 57. 54.25 54.75 53.75 53.25 54.75 54. 53.5 53.75 55.25 56.75 57. 56.5 56.5 58. 59. 6.5 62.5 63. 62.75 62.75. 6.75 6.5 6. 59.25 57.5 58.5 57.75 57. 56.75 56.25 55.5 55.75 56.5 57.75 = No quotes. / Since August, 99, Indian-t~ H-4 has been included in the A-Index selection. 2/ The A-index is an average of the five lowest priced types of SLM -3/32 inch staple cotton offered on the Europe~n market. Cotton Outlook, Liverpool Cotton Services, Ltd. 6.8 6.7 59.45 58.65 56.95 57.5 56.25 55.7 56.25 55.65 54.4 55.5 55.9 57.2 58.45 57.9 57.9 59.45 6. 6.5 6. 6.35

Appendix table 9--c.i.f. Northern Europe price quotation for principal growth of coarse count cotton, weekly, August 99 to date. -----------------------------------------------------------------~-------------------------- Month Orleans/ Central Southern Indian B- & week Texas Pakistan China Asian Turkey Brazil Argentina / Index 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents/lb. Aug. 72.25 7. 74. 72. 8 73. 7.5 74.5 72.65 5 67. 66.5 7.75 68.4 22 69. 67.75 73.5 7. 29 69.5 68. 73.5 7.35 Sept. 5 69.5 68. 73. 7.5 2 68. 67.25 72. 69. 9 68.75 67.75 7.5 67.35 26 67. 67. 65.5 7. 66.5 Oct. 3 66.5 66.75 64.5 69. 65.9 66. 66. 64. 68. ' 65.35 7 65. 65. 64. 67. 64.65 24 64. 65. 63.75 66.25 64.25 3 62.5 63. 62.75 66. 62.75 Nov. 7 62. 6.75 6.75 66. 6.5 4 6. 59.25 59.25 62.5 59.85 2 62.25 59.5 59.25 62.5 6.35 28 6.75 58.25 58.75 62. 59.6 Dec. 5 6.5 58. 58.25 63. 59.25 2 6.5 57.75 58.25 63. 59.5 9 6.5 57.5 57.25 62.75 58.75 26 Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Holiday Jan. 2 6.25 56. 57.25 62.75 58. 57. 9 6. 55.25 57.25' 64. 57. 56.5 6 59. 54.75 56.25 63.25 55. 55.35 23 58:75 54. 55. 63.25 54.25 54.4 3 56.5 52.25 54.5 63.25 5.75 52.85 Feb. 6 56.5 53.25 53.5 63.25 5.75 52.85 3 56.5 52.5 52.25 63.25 5.5 52. 2 55.75 5.75 5.75 63.25 5.25 5.6 27 56.5 5.5 5.75 63.25 52.75 52. Mar. 5 55.75 5. 5.5 63.25 52. 5.5 2 54.25 5.25 5. 62.25 5.25 5.5 9 55.5 5.5 5. 62.25 5.75 5.75 26 56.5 5.25 5.25 62.25 52.75 5.4 Apr. 2 58. 52.5 5.75 62.25 54.25 52.5 9 57.5 53.5 5.75 62.25 54.75 53. 6 56.75 53.25 5.75 62.25 54.25 52.75 23 56.75 53.25 5.75 62.25 54.25 52.75 3 58.75 54. 5.5 55.75 53.75 May 7 58.25 54.5 52.5 56.25 54.4 4 59. 55.5 53.5 58. 55.65 2 57.5 55. 52.75 56. 54.6 28 57.75 55. 52.25 55.75 54.33 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- = No quotes. / Since August, 99, Indian-type J-34 has been included in the B-Index selection. 2/ The B-Index is based on coarse grades of cotton varying in staple length from inch to -3/32 inch. It is an average of the three cheapest types of eight styles, so marked. Cotton Outlook, Liverpool Cotton Services, Ltd. 33

Appendix table --Strict-low-middling spot prices in desivnated u.s. markets, loan rates, and prices received by farmers for upland cotton, 984/85-99/92 ~------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Average spot-market prices per pound (net weight) / Year ---------------------------------------------------------------- Price received beginning by farmers August 5/6 -/32 -/6-3/32 -!8 (net weight) inch inch inch inch inch inch 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cents/lb. 984/85 52.39 55.98 58.3 6.5 6.29 6.64 3/ 58.7 985/86 52.6 55.8 57.87 6. 59.62 59.77 3/ 56.8 986/87 44.8 47.77 5.78 53.6 53.8 55.89 3/ 5.5 987/88 57.38 59.33 6.8 63.3 63.63 64.45 3/ 63.7 988/89 49.2 52.32 53.99 57.67 58.4 59.5 3/ 55.6. 989/9 6.73 64.89 66.62 69.78 7.23 7.69 3/ 63.6 99/9: August 66.2 7. 73.3 76.27 76.69 78.6 64.6 September 59.22 66.2 67.5 7. 7.43 72.86 65. October 58.99 66.3 67.9 7.54 7.97 72.8 67.5 November 6.54 65. 66.6 69.48 69.97 7.6 68. December 58.7 64.6 66.2 69.92 7.43 72.7 65.9 January 58.7 64.7 66.78 7.5 7.9 73. 64.2 February 64.27 7.78 74.22 77.69 78.45 8.35 67.9 March 65.3 72.24 74.74 77.92 78.63 8.44 68.5 April 65.55 73.6 76.7 79.94 8.65 83.36 7.8 May 68.2 76.94 8.9 83.94 84.6 87.6 68.9 June 65.65 72.34 76.22 79.5 79.69 82.34 67.2 July 59.4 65.26 68.54 7.33 7.99 74.8 65.7 Season 62.49 69.5 7.52 74.8 75.38 77.3 67. 99/92: August 55.8 6.88 64.9 66.44 66.88 68.62 66.9 September 53.46 57.6 59.68 62.39 62.75 63.8 65.2 October 53.6 55. 55.6 58.28 58.63 58.43 62.5 November 5.54 5.8 52.7 54.7 55.4 54.44 6.2 December 5.5 5.4 5.5 53.89 54.23 53.93 55.6 January 47.42 49.9 49.26 5.54 5.92 5.2 5.6 February 44.68 48. 48.36 5.76 5.6 5.77 49.6 March 45.3 49. 49.49 52. 52.4 52.3 49.9 April 46.92 5.58 52.8 54.97 55.37 56.5 52. Loan rate 4/ 43.62 46.27 48.47 5.77 5.27 5.42 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / 99/92 spot-market loan rates and prices are for cotton with micronaire readings of 3.5-3.6 and 4.3-4.9 and strength of 24-25 gpt. 2/ Prices do not include an allowance for loans outstanding and Government purchases. 3/ Weighted market average. U.S. prices based on U.S. month.ly prices weighted by monthly marketings from August through the following July. 4/ SLM -/6 inch average location. Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service, Agricultural Marketing Service, and National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. 34

Appendix table --CCC loan P.remiuns and discounts for grade and staple length o.f 992-crop American upland cotton, basis grace 4 staple 34. (SLM -!6 inch), net weight ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Staple length (inches) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Grade Code 3/6 (26) -5/32 through 5/6 3/32 -/32 -/6-3/32 -/8 (37) & 29/32 (29) (3) (32) (32) (33) (34) (35) (36) longer ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- White: SM & better ( & 2) -685-525 -3-265 -5 3 75 8 95 MID PLUS (3) -7-54 -325-275 - 25 6 7 9 MID (3) -745-55 -34-285 -25 5 55 65 85 SLM PLUS (4) -no -59-38 -35-9 5 95 5 2 SLM (4) -85-63 -42-4 -24 BASE 45 55 6 LM PLUS (5) -92-795 -64-64 -49-26 -235-23 -225 LM (5) -985-865 -75-75 -6-375 -35-345 -335 SGO PLUS (6) -285-265 -265-265 -5-3 - -5 - SGO (6) -45-45 -45-45 -245-85 -7-7 -65 GO PLUS (7) -595-575 -495-495 -345-345 -345-345 -345 GO (7) -625-65 -53-53 -38-375 -375-375 -375 Light sretted: SM & etter (2 & 22) -785-595 -37-325 -7 5 7 8 9 MID (32) -85-67 -435-45 -235-5 4 45 5 SLM (42) -92-735 -63-63 -48-28 -255-245 -24 LM (52) -45 - - - -95-935 -925-925 -925 SGO (62) -53-53 -53-53 -38-36 -355-355 -355 Spotted: SM & better (3 & 23) -25-86 -75-655 -55-48 -465-46 -45 MID (33) -75-965 -825-825 -675-675 -675-675 -675 SLM (43) -32-32 -32-32 -7-6 -5-5 -5 LM (53) -59-59 -59-59 -435-4 -4-4 -4 SGO (63) -69-69 -69-69 -535-5 -5-5 -5 Tinged: / SM (24) -685-565 -54-55 -29-245 -245-245 -245 MID (34) -735-65 -59-565 -34-295 -295-295 -295 SLM (44) -825-755 -745-735 -555-555 -555-555 -555 LM (54) -98-95 -895-885 -735-735 -735-735 -735 Light gray: SM & better (6 & 26) -82-72 -59-585 -38 5 5 2 MID (36) -9-9 -9-9 -89-425 -37-365 -365 SLM (46) -265-265 -265-265 -96-47 -45-45 -4 Gray: SM & better (7 & 27) - - - - -9-435 -38-375 -375 MID (37) -275-275 -275-275 -97-48 -425-45 -4 SLM (47) -2275-2275 -2275-2275 -27-58 -525-55 -5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Cotton classed as "Yellow Stained" (middling and better grades) will be eligible for loant if otherwise eligible, at a discount 2 points greater than the discount for the comparable quality in the color group "tlnged." USDA, Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service. (.)

Appendix table 2--CCC base loan rates for upland cotton at specific locations, base mike, net weight, by season, 984-92 Market Location Greenville Augusta Montgomery Memphis Greenwood Pine Bluff Rayville Altus Waco Harlingen Lubbock El Paso Phoenix Fresno Average location Target price 984 57.35 57.2 56.35 56. 55.9 55.9 55.9 55.35 55.35 55.2 55.2 54.85 54.5 54.5 55. 8. 985 986 59.85 59.2 58.6 58.4 58.25 58.25 58.25 57.55 57.55 57.5 57.5 57.45 56.2 56.2 57.3 8. 57.55 56.9 56.3 56. 55.95 55.95 55.95 55.25 55.25 55.2 55.2 55.5 53.95 53.95 55. 8. Grade 4 staple 34 987 988 989 Cents per pound 54.7 54. 53.45 53.25 53.5 53.5 53.5 52.4 52.4 52.3 52.3 52.25 5.2 5.2 52.25 79.4 54.25 53.55 52.95 52.75 52.6 52.6 5.95 5.95 5.85 5.85 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 75.9 52.4 5.7 5. 5.9 5.75 5.75 5.75 5. 5. 5.5 5.5 5. 48.9 48.9 5. 73.4 99 52.55 5.95 5.35 5.5 5. 5. 5. 5.35 5.35 5.25 5.25 5.2 49.5 49.5 5.27 72.9 99 53.5 52.45 5.85 5.65 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.85 5.85 5.75 5.75 5.7 49.65 49.65 5.77 72.9 992 54.6 54. 53.4 53.2 53.5 53.5 53.5 52.4 52.4 52.3 52.3 52.25 5.5 5.5 52.35 72.9 USDA, Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service. Appendix table 3--ccc loan schedule of micronaire and strength premiums and discounts for 992-crop upland cotton Points per pound ----------------------------------. Micronaire Staples 32 Staples 33 Strength Points reading (") & shorter (-/32") & longer reading per pound ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5.3 and above 5. through 5.2 4.3 through 4.9 3.7 through 4.2 3.5 through 3.6 3.3 through 3.4 3. through 3.2 2.7 through 2.9 2.5 through 2.6 2.4 and below -39-25 + -35-33 -75 -,5 -,55-3 -95 + -235-48 -865-85 -,56 8.5-9.4-245 9.5 2.4-85 2.5-2.4-3 2.5-22.4-9 22.5-23.4-45 23.5-25.4 25.5-26.4 26.5-27.4 7 27.5-28.4 28.5-29.4 45 29.5-3.4 85 3.5 and above 22 USDA, Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service. Appendix table 4--CCC schedule of loan rates and micronaire differences for eligible qualities of 992-crop ELS cotton stored in approved warehouses at all locations. / Staple (inches) ------------------------------------- Grade -3/8 (44) -7/6 (46) & longer 98.5 98.75 2 97.95 98.5 3 94.85 95.4 4 84.35 84.95 5 53. 53. Micronaire reading 3.5 and above 3.3 through 3.4 3. through 3.2 2.7 through 2.9 Points per pound 6 43.35 43.35 / A micronaire premium of 4 points (.4 cents) per pound is reflected in the loan rates for the eligible qualities; thus, the national average loan rate reflected in the above schedule is 89.55 cents per pound. Cotton with micronaire readings below the micronaire range 3.5 and above" will be subject to the discounts. USDA, Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service. 34 665 2655 36

Appendix table 5--Fiber prices: Landed Group B mill point, cotton prices, and manmade-staple-fiber prices, -------------------!:~:~:.P~~~~~~~-P~~~~~!-~~~~~~-~~-~~~!~~~-~~~-!~~~-~~~!~~~=~~!-~~~=~~----------------- Calendar year Actual cotton / Rayon 2/ Polyester 3/ Price ratios 4/ Raw-fiber Raw-fiber Raw-fiber Cotton/ equivalent Actual equivalent Actual equivalent rayon 5/ 5/ 5/ Cotton/ polyester --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 984 985 986 987 988 989 99: January February March April May June July August September October November December Average 99: January February March April May June July August September October November December Average 992: January February March April ---------------------------Cents/lb.--------------------------- 76 66 ~ 65 72 7 72 76 78 82 87 87 84 79 78 79 8 79 8 87 9 9 94 89 8 75 72 68 63 62 79 6 57 59 63 84 73 68 8 72 8 78 8 84 87 9 97 96 93 88 87 87 89 88 89 96 99 4 99 89 83 8 75 7 69 88 67 64 65 7 84 79 76 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 22 22 24 2 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6 6 6 22 6 6 6 6 88 82 79 84 94 4 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 29 25 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 2 2 2 27 2 2 2 2 79 66 62 66 74 86 89 89 89 89 85 82 78 78 78 78 78 78 83 78 78 78 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 74 72 72 73 74 82 69 65 69 77 89 93 93 93 93 89 85 8 8 8 8 8 8 86 8 8 8 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 77 75 75 76 77 ----Percent---- / SLM /6 at Group B mill points net weight. 2/.5 and 3. denier, regular rayon stap-le. 3/ Reported average market price for.~-denier polyester staple for cotton blendin9. 4/ Raw fiber equivalent. 5/ Actual prices converted to estimated raw-fiber equivalent as follows: cotton, dvided by.9; rayon and polyester, divided by.96. Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA and trade reports..95.89.86.96.77.7.63.65.68.7.74.78.78.75.7.68.69.69.7.69.75.77.77.8.76.69.64.62.62.58.57.69.55.53.54.58.2.6.4.8.94.9.84.86.9.94.3.3.9.4.8.7.7.9.3..9.23.33.39.32.8..6..93.92.5.89.85.86.9 37

Appendix table 6--Upland cotton and manmade staple fibers: spinning spindles Mill consumption on cotton-system --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Manmade Year --------------------------------------------- Cotton's beginning Cotton Rayon and Non- Total Total share of August acetate cellulosic fibers total --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- lbs-------------------------------- Percent 984/85 268685 2397 336595 567792 486477 62.6 985/86 386842 253459 465228 78687 485529 64.2 986/87 3544852 2567 48822 I 738593 5283445 67. 987/88 363397 26883 48 I 923 538233 67.5 988/89 368733 285742 397434 ~~r~~~~~ I I 53756 68.7 989/9: August 34268 2234 6 32924 47492 72. September 426587 276 3998 66996 593583 7.9 October 34284 2258 8625 3783 473 624 72.4 November 3852 223 92 225 44:67 72.3 December 33866 2459 5 I 26 39635 478295 7.8 January 388 2837 3387 24224 4364 7.5 February 326 73 2676 6984 2866 454833 7.7 March 48;82 2899 2992 582 566922 7<?. April 32264 2253 795 3463 452527 7.2 May 3353 24393 72 3593 46224 7.5 June 45 28345 26947 55292 565342 72.5 July 277834 864 8753 643 383977 72.4 Season 4552 2883 34553 626983 578294 7.9 99/9: August 33832 2497 564 2926 467582 72.4 September 4426 35 26528 5739 573 72.5 October 33249 2259 2249 24839 457248 72.7 November 3969 889 96245 534 473 72.4 December 296625 944 95 32 4753 4378 72. January / 377746 245 7:3 2758 5484 74.8 February 299589 7585 93887 472 46 72.9 March 347995 83 9779 6 4645 75. April 357684 2224 62 28224 48598 73.6 May 4325 23 28 66 34446 547696 75.5 June 329797. 9 79 9452 4292 44489 74.3 July 33668 2o;o7 98468 8539 44927 73.6 Season 3762568 25696 23463 4967 56338 73.5 99/92: August 4769 22678 265 33943 55552 75.7 September 35982 2423 598 2652 47853 73.6 October 435,462 2395 935 435 57852 75.3 November 354455 224 4738 25762 4827 73.8 December 299836 93 94 672 3675 435 72.5 January 43536 2235 26:778 4928 58664 74.3 February 382497 786 3742 3558 5455 74.4 March 44626 26 484 6345 6944 73.2 April 2/ 358723 8684 543 23727 48245 74.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Data for January-December 99 are estimated from quarterly Census data. 2/ Preliminary. Bureau of the Census. 38

Appendix table 7--Upland cotton and manmade staple fibers: Daily rate of mill consumption on cotton-system spinning spindles / ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48-lb. bales Upland cotton: 986/87 27,748 27,2 28,357 27,444 23,949 28,338 29,43 3,38 29,676 3,33 29,5 28,38 987/88 3 498 3 37 32 246 3 735 25 358 29 56 3 68 3 54 28 827 28 532 27 394 22 39 988/89 29:9 28:589 28:462 26:949 23:5 29:29 3o:o94 3:76 32:22 33:2 33:26 28:922 989/9 35,549 35,549 35,73 33,79 28,222 32,489 33,976 34,67 33,548 34,43 34,7 28,94 99/9 35,242 34,522 34,626 3,455 24,79 34,26 3,27 34,523 33,872 37,432 34,354 29,952 99/92 2/ 39,546 34,99 39,444 35,64 28,394 35,96 39,843 37,69 37,59 Manmade staple, lbs. Rayon and acetate: 986/87,73,24,89,2 844,4 95 997 96 948 952 867 987/88,38,2,6,66 975 987,53,57,92,23,6 93 988/89 29 29,53 987 49, 73 9 33 33 868 989/9 :6 :8,8 : 98 :42,83 :28 :27 :22 :34 932 99/9,2,22,3 945 778 872 879 87,9,2 99 873 99/92 2/,3,2,4, 864 894 89 864 934 Noncellulosic: 3/ 986/87 5,87 5,849 5,948 5,835 4,99 5,552 5,77 5,99 5,845 5,88 5,76 5,4 987/88 5,97 5,85 6,254 6,6 4,86 5,953 5,849 5,897 5,789 5,699 5,667 4,96 988/89 5,856 5,67 5,599 5,347 4,67 5,43 5,45 5,288 5,469 5,63 5,498 4,766 989/9 5,53 5,599 5,43 5,9 4,65 5,69 5,349 5,97 5,398 5,36 5,78 4,375 99/9 5,253 5,6 5,2 4,82 3,82 4,653 4,694 4,653 4,89 4,833 4,725 4,28 99/92 2/ 5,58 5,5 5,8 4,988 4,33 5,7 5,687 5,673 5,252 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- / Data for January-December 99 are estimates of quarterly Census data. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Includes nylon, acrylic and modacrylic, polyester, and other manmade fibers. Bureau of the Census. f8

Appendix table 8--Cotton spindles in place and active, and hours operated, 989-92 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percentage of active spindles Daily average ----------used on------------ spini:lle hours Total - - Other -------operated--------- fiber spun ------Spindles----- percent percent fibers and Seasonally per spindle Date In place Active cotton manmade blends Actual adjusted hour -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------,------ ----------Percent------------ -------Million---------- Lbs. 989: January 2,77,267 38.4 3.8 47.8 288 286.7 February,963,83 37.9 4. 48. 293 275.7 March,925, 2 38.5 4. 47.5 289 276.73 April,94,4 39. 3.6 47.3 296 287.74 May,866,72 39.3 3.6 47. 3 289.75 June,82,2 38.7 3.4 48. 299 3.75 July,669,794 39.7 4. 46.2 3 257.64 August,554,75 39.5 3.9 46.6 33 3.74 September,468 735 39.4 3.8 46.8 37 34.73 October,57 :75 39. 3.6 47.4 279 268.83 November,59,676 39.4 4. 46.5 293 284.74 December,549,699 39. 4.3 46.6 254 293.73 99: January 373,588 4. 4.6 45.4 272 27.79 February :287,7 39.8 5.7 44.5 278 264.79 March,336,575 39.9 5.8 44.3 276 266.8 April,287,52 39.6 5.7 44.8 27 262.82 May,8,37 4. 5.7 44.3 267 257.85 June,67,265 4. 6.2 43.7 255 252.89 July,58,3 38.8 5.5 45.7 22 256 August,894,8 38.7 5.2 46.2 264 257 :8~~' September,89,5 39.6 5. 45.4 255 247.9 October,637 9,86 38.5 5.3 46.2 26 248.89 November,68 9,85 39.7 4.8 45.5 24 233.89 December,54 9,76 39.3 5. 45.7 96 225.85 99: Jan-Mar,69 9,758 39. 4.9 46. 233 NA.93 Apr-Jun,372 9,649 4.6 4.8 44. 24 NA.95 Jul-Sep,89 9,442 42. 5.5 42.6 227 NA.99 Oct-Dec 9,837 9,64 4.7 5.5 43.7 224 NA. 992: January 9,246 8,84 42.7 5. 42.2 233 236. February 9,4 8,747 42.8 5.3 4.9 24 236.7 March 9,26 8,727 43. 5.3 4.6 236 234.4 April / 9,54 8,67 43.6 5.6 4.8 238 23.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NA =Not available. / Preliminary. Bureau of the Census. 4

Year Cotton Wool Cellulosic Noncellulosic Total manmade Total fibers -----------------------------Million lbs. --------------------------------- 986 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total 987 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total 988 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total 989 Q - 2Q 3Q 4Q Total 99 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total 99 Q Total 2Q 3Q 4Q 992 Q 79.6 8.7 88. 849.7 3,259. 94.4 939.8 967.5 94.5 3,753.2 95.7 883.5 852. 82.7 3,58. 949.9,33.3,54.2,8.7 4,46.,56.6 ~.7.,37.6 95. 4,5.3,32.9,9.5,8.3,96.8 4,347.5,66.8 35. 36. 32.9 32.8 36.7 36.6 37.5 33.8 34.9 42.8 35.4 33.9 3.8 3.6 32.7 37.3 35.9 3.7 29.8 34.7 35.4 34.7 3. 32.6 32.7 34.7 4.2 39. 37.5 5.5 4.3 5.8 53.5 53.6 5.4 68.3 4.2 43.2 46.2 56. 585.6 52.3 59. 5.7 49.9 62.9 65.8 59.9 4.9 34.2 6.8 4.5 44.7 59.2 53.5 598.9 28.3 4. 45.8 4.3 556.5 4. Bureau of the Census, and Fiber Organon.,944.4,976. 2,49. 2,74.8 8,44.4 2,95.2 2,52.2 2,34.3 2,98.4 8,48. 2,.4 2,52.2 2,8.6 2,233.8 8,595. 2,74.2 2,234. 2,34.5 2,74. 8,66.8 2, 88. 2,63. 2,89.4 2,7.6 8,448.,897.3 2,72. 2,243. 2,229.2 8,54.6 2,82.6 2,95.2 2,29.6 2,22.7 2,225.2 8,652.7 2,235.4 2,295.4 2,28.5 2,254.4 9,65.7 2,252.7 2,3.2 2,26.3 2,383.7 9,27.9 2,34. 2,393.9 2,275.4 2,28.3 9,27.6 2,229.6 2,37.7 2,248.6 2,26. 9,47. 2,25.6 2,33.2 2,388.8 2,37.5 9,98. 2,322.6 2,92.8 2,976.3 3,43.6 3,7.7 2,48.4 3,76.4 3,272.7 3,28.8 3,23.8 2,96.7 3,238.8 3,228.6 3,44.2 3,237. 2,848.6 3,327.2 3,463. 3,36.3 3,246.8 3,398.4 3,32.6 3,43.5 3,36.2 3,243.7 3,295. 3,93.2 3,462.9 3,536.2 3,54.8 3,597. 3,53.7 Cotton's share of total Percent 27. 27.2 26.5 27.3 27. 28.5 28.7 29.5 29. 29. 29.3 27.4 27. 25.4 27.3 28.5 29.8 3.4 3. 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.3 29.3 3. 33.4 32. 3.3 3.3 32. 33. 4

~ Appendix table 2--U.S. fiber consumption: Total and per capita, by type of fiber, 986-9 Fiber and year Cotton: 986 987 988 989 99 99 Wool: 986 987 988 989 99 99 u.s. mill use Million lbs. 3,259. 3,753.2 3,58. 4,46. 4,5.3 4,347.5 36.7 42.8 32.7 34.7 32.7 5.5 Manmade fibers: 986 8,652. 7 987 9,65.7 988 9,27.9 989 9,27.6 99 9,47. 99 9,98. Flax and silk: 986 4.8 987 4.7 988 5. 989 6.5 99 49.9 99 22.3 All fibers: 986 987 988 989 99 99 5/ 2,53.2 2,966.4 2,853.6 3,558.9 3,444.9 3,79.4 Percent of fibers Percent 27. 28.9 27.3 29.8 3.5 3.7......2 7.8 69.9 7.6 68. 67.3 66.2 4/ 4/ 4/.2..9...... Textile trade / Exports Imports Total domestic consi,jllption 2/ ----------Million lbs.---------- 274.8 298. 325.3 54.2 66.5 76.6 6. 23.5 3.7 66.3 59.6 63.3 59.3 59.9 68.6,57.7,335.8,395. NA NA NA 69. 99.3 94.9 8. 93.4,37.6,697.3 2,55.2 2,269.9,9.5 2,335.7 2, 2.7 2,337.6 2,42.6 2,577.5 275.6 276. 248.7 22. 24.4 29.2,73.,85.4, 758.9, 7.5, 723.8,737.6 632.2 72.7 67.5 665.3 667. 646. 4,52.3 5,93.3 4,736.8 4,924.5 4,997.9 5,7.3 4,894.7 5,79.9 5,34.4 5,879.5 5,857.4 6,28.4 NA =Not available. / Raw-fiber-equivalent of imports and exports of textile products. 2/ Total domestic consi,jllption is U.S. mill consumption plus net textile product trade balance. 3/ July population for 986=24.7 million, 987=242.8 million, 988=245. million, 989=247.3 million, 99=249.9 million, and 99=252.7. 4/ Less than.5 pounds, or. percent. 5/ Includes flax and silk. Bureau of the Census. 396.3 368.8 35. 289.5 277.5 297.4 9,836.4,279.2,284.9 9,86.4 9,435. 9,44.6 637. 77.4 62.5 756.7 77.7 673.4 5,764.4 7,46.3 6,552.8 6,786. 6,287.6 6,69.8 Percent of fibers Percent 3. 33.7 32. 34.7 35.4 37. 2.5 2.3 2..5.5.8 62.4 59.9 62. 59.4 58.8 57.2 4. 4. 3.7 4.4 4.4 4....... Per capita 3/ -------------------- Mill use Domestic consumption ---------Lbs.------ 3.5 5.5 4.3 6.4 6.5 7.2.6.6.5.5.5.6 35.9 37.3 37.6 37.3 36.2 36. 4/ 4/ 4/.6.6.5 5. 53.4 52.5 54.8 53.8 54.3 2.3 23.9 2.7 23.8 23.4 24.6.7.5.4.2..2 4.9 42.3 42. 39.9 37.8 37.4 2.6 2.9 2.5 3. 2.9 2.6 65.5 7.6 67.6 67.9 65.2 65.8

Appendix table 2--Manmade fiber production and capacity, 99-93 / ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fiber --------------99--------------- ----------------992--------------- ----------------993--------------- Annual Annual Annual Annual chan~e 988 989 99 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year 99-3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------Million lbs.------------------------------------------------- Percent Grand total, all fibers 3/ Capacity,27,48,434 2,6 2,627 2,635 2,634,57 2,638 2,642 2,649 2,649,578 2,665 2672 2673 267 68 +.8 Production 969 925 872 2,28 26 2275 2,32 8784 2,2 Percent 9 88 84 78 82 86 88 84 83 Total staple-- Capacity 5283 536 5,29,26 269 274 278 5,8 276 275 273 276 5,,277 28 279 283 52 +.4 Production 4746 4654 4,29 978 3 3 36 4,258 77 Percent 9 88 84 78 8 87 89 84 84 Total filament-- 2/ Capacity 4924 5,2 5,35,35 358,36,356 5426,362 367 376 373 5478 388 39 394 388 556 +.2 Production 4423 447 4,43 5 3,62 84 4,526,24 Percent 9 88 84 78 83 84 87 83 83 Polyester total: Capacity 39 39 3878 985 992 996 993 3966 998 4 7 4,7 6 6 7 426 +.8 Production 368 3594 395 793 828 869 92 34 884 Percent 94 92 82 8 83 87 93 86 89 Staple-: Capacity 2556 2,556 2559 647 65 65 65 2,597 65 65 65 65 263 65 65 65 65 263 +. Production 2452 2,385 29 55 525 569 64 223 58 Percent 96 93 82 78 8 88 93 85 89 Filament-- Capacity,344 355 39 338 342 346 343 369 347 35 354 356 47 356 355 356 356 423 +2. Production 229 29,5 288 33 3 37 28 34 Percent 9 89 84 85 89 87 92 88 88 Nylon total: Capacity 2997 37 386 788 783 785 785 34 79 795 796 789' 37 8 83 82 84 329 +. Production 267 274 2,662 585 66 668 666 2535 66 Percent 89 88 84 74 79 85 85 8 78 Staple-- Capacity 35 46 44 284 282 284 285 35 282 28 279 28 2 279 28 279 28 8 -.7 Production 942 98 99 2 26 237 225 869 2 Percent 83 86 87 7 73 83 79 77 7 Filament-- Capacity 862 96 242 54 5 5 5 26 58 55 57 59 249 52 523 523 524 29 +2. Production 728, 759 672 384 4 43 44 666 45 Percent 93 9 82 76 82 86 88 83 82 Olefin total: Capacity 927 27 225 579 588 589 589 2345 584 579 582 585 233 59 595 597 59 2373 +.6 Production 569 639 823 424 469 486 487 866 464 Percent 8 82 82 73 8 79 83 8 79 Staple-: Capacity 483 49 54 33 37 38 39 547 4 4 4 4 56 43 45 45 45 578 +2.8 Production 364 382 46 2 5 7 24 458 2 Percent 75 78 79 77 84 83 9 84 86 Filament-- Capacity 444 56,69 446 45 45 45 798 444 439 442 445 77 448 45 452 445 795 -o_ Production,224 257 47 322 354 369 363 48 344 Percent 85 83 83 72 78 82 8 78 77 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnotes at end of table. continued-- ~

t No. of characters across 66 Appendix table 2--Manmade fiber production and capacity, 99-93 /--continued ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fiber -------------99------------- -------------992--------------- ----------------993--------------- Annual Annual Annual Annual chan~e 988 989 99 Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year 99-3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------Million lbs.------------------------------------------------- Percent Other fibers: 2/ Capacity 3 3 32 8 8 8 8 32 8 8 8 8 32 8 8 8 8 32. Production 28 28 3 8 8 7 8 3 8 Percent 93 93 94 88 97 Acrylic s~aple: Capacty 64 642 568 5 9 2 22 477 22 23 23 23 49 23 24 24 25 496 +2. Production 588 543 56 3 6 2 5 454 9 Percent 92 85 89 9 97 99 94 95 89 Noncellulosic total 3/ Capacity 9,495 9,697 9,869 2,475 2,49 2,499 2,497 9,96 2,532 2,539 2,547 2,554,72 2,529 2,536 2,537 2,534,36 +.9 Production 8,555 8,543 8,25,93 2,38 2,5 2,97 8,298 2,8 Percent 9 88 83 77 82 85 88 83 82 Staple-- Capacity 4,85 4,835 4,785 79 88,93,96 4, 756 95 93,94 I 94 4,776,96,2 98 2 4,795 +.4 Production 4,346 4,29 3,99 9 963,43,68 3,985, Percent 9 89 83 77 8 87 89 84 85 Filament-- Capacity 4,68 4,862 5,84,296,3,36,3 5,25,37,32,32,38 5,258,333,336,339,333 5,34 +.3 Production 4,29 4,253 4,224,2,75 7,29 4,33,7 Percent 9 87 83 77 83 85 87 83 82 Cellulosic staple: Capacity 468 48 344 8 8 8 82 325 8 8 8 82 325 8 8 8 82 325. Production 4 363 299 67 69 7 68 273 67 Percent 85 75 87 83 85 86 83 84 83 Cellulosic filament: Capacity 244 24 22 55 56 55 55 222 55 55 55 55 22 55 55 55 55 22 -.6 Production 24 28 26 48 55 55 55 23 53 Percent 88 9 93 87 98 98 98 96 96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~-------------------------------------------------------------------- / Capacity data as of December 99. 2/ Includes saran and spandex. USDA estimates. 3/ Glass fibers are not included. Fiber Organon.

Appendix table 22- U.S. raw wool imports by country of origin ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unimproved and other grades not-finer-than-46's Jan-Mar 48's-and-finer Jan-Mar --------------------------------- --------- -------------------------------- -------- country 989 99 99 992 989 99 99 992 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Argentina,86.5 82. 749. 66.3 4.2 37.3 574.7 Australia 35.7 337.7 392.4 5.4 66,77.6 42,989.2 59,46.5 6,99.5 Belgium 34.4 67.6 84.6 -- Canada 67.7 2.5 63.9 2.2 433.8 82.5 379.4 34.4 Chile 5. 46.6 395.3 28.7 Falkland Islands 26.6 2.8 92.6 42. Ireland.4 5.8 Lesotho 678. 5.2 Mexico 548.9 694.9 75.7 266.2 New Zealand 24,962.7 6,726. 4,25.9 4,65.2 4,749.8 2,699.9 3,5.2 79.9 South Africa 43.4 45.2 -- -- 27.8 23.4 Spain 2,396.5 92.9 7.4 2.4 United Kingdom 3,79.6 3,2.4 33.7,2.3 56.4 38. 27.2 23. Uruguay 24. 68.4 6.8,638.3 73.6 75.2 889. West Germany -. 382.8 Other 5.5 36.7 47. 732.2 4. 65.7 3.9 Total 29,889. 2,355.2 8,66.4 6,6.4 77,2.7 5,3.9 68,242. 9,564.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ =Not available. Bureau of the Census. Appendix table 23--U.S. raw wool exports by country of destination Shorn wool Jan-Mar Unshorn wool Jan-Mar Carbonized wool Jan-Mar Country 989 99 99 992 989 99 99 992 989 99 99 992 --------------------------------;---------------------------------------~--------------------------------------------------~ Canada 4. 25.3 58..9 3.4 92.4 57.. ' 7.4 Belgium 72.3 32.9 HonrJ Kong 9.3 2. 9.7. 43.2 Inda 26.4 28.7 -- Italy 79.2 Japan 588.2 5.7 236. 5.8 9.4 7.2 68. 6.9 Korea 85.5 4.3 3. 2.2 Mexico 4.8 92.7 95.3 5.4 42.5 946.2 67. 83.3 Taiwan 77.6 9.9 6. 243. 2.6 Thai land. - 96.5 -- United Kingdom 36.7 34.2 84. 4.7 65.6 2.4 3.6 9. West Germany 29.6 662. 873.5 95.5 36.8 57.3 35. 46.5 Other 68.9. 3.4 28.9 63.3 37.5 3.5 4.9 9.7 Total 69.6,388. 2,679. 593.2 568.2,343.9,88. 62.2.9 86.4 4.8 9.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- = No exports. Bureau of the Census. 45

U.S. imports Jan-Mar U.S. exports Jan-Mar Country 989 99 99 992 989 99 99 992 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Argentina Australia Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Colombia Ecuador France Hone Kong Inda Israel Italy Japan Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Peru Singapore South Africa South Korea Taiwan Turkey Unitea Kingdom Uruguay Venezuela West Germany Other Total 75.2 89.3 76. 33.2 2! 96.9 2.6. 492.3 54..2.9 27.5 2/ 22.9 82.9 58.9. 358.3, lbs..5 752.4 733.6 66.9 7..7 2/.7 5.4 4. 42.7 9. 2.5.3 952.,2.7 7.8 33. 43.3 33.6 6.7 2.6 4.9 2.7 89.6 32. 25. 99. 46.3 65.4 565.8,782.6 7,77.5 54.9 26.7 23.9 546.9 73.6 7.9 3.7.7 75.3 77.4 3,29.3 4,472.4,99.6 22.3 44..4 33.7 6. 6.3 2,9.,34. 3,38.7,427.8,796.9 636.5,354. 49.6 299.5 228.2 44.3 43. 8.5 4.8 262. 856. 284.8 43. 43.9 62.5 89.7.6.6 4.7 9,63.9,38. 6,827.9 3,7. -- = No imports or exports. / Raw wool not carded or combed, but processed beyond the degreased condition, e.g. dyed. Grade is not Identified. 2/ Less tnan 5 pounds. Bureau of the Census. Appendix table 25--U.S. mohair exports by country of destination, 989-92 Country 989 99 99 Jan-Mar 992 Belgium 28. China 85. France 526.9 Hone Kong India,559. Ireland -- Italy 382. Japan 79.2 Mexico 24. Netherlands Spain 556.4 Switzerland 93.7 Taiwan 3.8 United Kingdom 7,649.2 Former USSR West Germany 85.2 Other 7.7 Total,497.3 347.8, 37.2 5. 928.7 26.6 274. 3.5 6.4 47.4 7.8 2.5 9,2.3 5.9 28.5.4,563. 354.9 554.,64.8 -- 392. 3.6 26.4 27.6 322.7 5,8.2 -- 64. 2.2 8, 3.7 285.8 -- 28. 46.2 4. 3., 924. 3,2. --------------------------------------------------------- -- = No exports. Bureau of the Census. 46

Appendix table 26--Domestic shipments of manmade fibers by major category, 988-92 / ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 988 989 99 99 992 Fiber type -------------------------- Q 2Q 3Q 4Q --------------------------- Q 2Q 3Q 4Q ---------------------------- Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Q -------------------------- 2Q 3Q 4Q ----------- Q ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million lbs. Woven products: Total 559.8 569.7 564.9 63.2 586.5 68. 544.2 48.7 455. 5.8 495.9 482.5 429.6 485.9 54.5 59. NA Polyester 37.5 328.7 39. 377.4 322.6 359.7 32. 292.6 267.5 286.7 283. 28.4 256.7 279.6 295.5 37.6 NA Rayon 58.7 6.5 63.5 6.3 69. 59.7 5.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Olefin 94.2 92.3 9.5 95.7 98.8 98. 97.9 96..2 2.6 8.8. 96.6 7. 6.8.7 NA Nylon 4. 36.7 38. 4.6 38.7 4.6 39. 4. 39.3 4.5 4.4 36.9 3.8 32.3 34.2 34.6 NA Acetate 32.5 36.3 36.9 4.6 37.3 39.3 38.8 38.4 34.6 38.3 42. 4.2 34.6 42.9 43.8 45. NA Acrylic 6.8 5.2 6.8 5.6 2. 2.8 5.9 3.6 3.4 3.7.6 2..9 4. 4.2. NA Knit products: Total 327. 343.4 326.7 366.8 378.7 37.3 353.5 328.2 37.5 33.3 36.7 3. 292.3 323.8 328.5 344.2 NA Polyester 73.2 83.8 75. 29.6 24.2 2.9 26.7 97.7 85. 99.4 87.3 86.2 73.9 96.8 25.8 223.9 NA Nylon 6.8 64.7 64. 7.8 68.8 68.4 64.9 63.3 53.4 6.2 57.8 6.7 6. 58.9 6.3 65. NA Acrylic 85.3 86.3 8.6 7. 84. 82.2 77.9 62.7 73.5 65.8 58.2 5.2 54.5 63.4 59. 53. NA Acetate 5.9 7.9 5.9 5.2 6.3 7.6 3.8 4.2 5.3 4.7 3. 2.7 3.9 4.7 2.4 2. NA Rayon.9.7..2.3.2.2.3.3.2.3.3 NA NA NA NA NA Carpets: Total 722.. 729. 733.4 732.6 724.9 723.7 736.5 75. 753.4 74.6 734.6 78.7 588.6 739.7 789.9 733.3 NA Nylon 452.5 443.6 467.6 46o.o 45.8 45.4 474.o 45.8 469.8 46o.o 456.o 459.7 339.6 438.6 474.5 4.9 2 428.o o efin 23.3 26.3 23.5 28.7 22.9 22.8 23.7 22.6 235.6 24.5 238.2 22. 2.8 242.3 254.9 249.5 NA Polyester 66. 69. 62.3 63.8 6. 5.3 48.6 5.6 48. 4. 4.4 38. 38.2 58.8 6.5 72.9 7.5 Rayon.2. NA...2.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NA =Not available. / Filament plus staple. 2/ Data only available for carpets: nylon (estimated) and polyester. Fiber Organon. ~

Appendix table 27--Estimated production of 25 micron 6's-and-finer raw wool, selected States, 992 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25-Micron-and-finer ------------------- Finer/ State Clip Finer share Total clip Total finer clip ---------------------------------------------------------------------------, lbs., lbs. (Greasy) Percent (Greasy) Percent Texas 6,388 94.997 7,25 33.4 I.Jyoming 5,72 65. 8,8.567 California 5,72 79.989 7,5.567 Montana 3,5 5. 7, 7.77 Colorado 3,4 5. 6,8 6.875 New Mexico 3,6 85. 3,6 6.88 South Dakota 2,626 5. 5,252 5.3 Utah 2,53 55. 4,6 5.6 Arizona,8 8.,475 2.386 Kansas 73 5.,426.442 Nevada 72 84.988 826.49 Oklahoma 563 54.927,25.38 Idaho 5 2. 2,5. Oregon 435 5. 2,9.879 Iowa 47 5.22 2,776.843 Nebraska 377 35.37',76.762 North Dakota 278 5.9,85.562 Missouri 93 24.87 776.39 Ohio 7.,7.344 Pennsylvania 32 5. 88.267 Michigan 4.985 674.24 Minnesota 95 2.242,9.92 Illinois 78.5 776.58 Virginia 76 9.948 764.54 I.Jashington 7 8.76 799.4 New York 62 5.85 4.25 Indiana 6. 6.2 Total 28 States 49,46 57.42 85,589 99.383 22 States 35.457 2,662.67 Total u.s. 49,45 56.34 88,25. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- American Sheep Industry Market Information Services. Appendix table 28--Estimated production of coarser-than-25-micron 6's raw wool, selected States, 992 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Coarser-than-25-micron ----------------------- Coarser/ State Clip Coarser share Total clip Total coarser clip ---------------------------------------------------------------------------, lbs. (Greasy) Percent, lbs. (Greasy) Percent Montana 3,5 5. 7, 9.2 Colorado 3,4 5. 6,8 8.763 I.Jyoming 3,8 35. 8,8 7.938 South Dakota 2,626 5. 5,252 6.768 Oregon 2,465 85. 2,9 6.353 Iowa 2,359 84.978 2 776 6.8 Utah 2,7 45. 4:6 5.335 Idaho 2, 8. 2,5 5.55 Minnesota,85 95.,9 4.652 North Dakota,573 84.98,85 4.54 Ohio,53 9.,7 3.'943 California,43 2. 7 5 3.688 Texas 863 5.3 7:25 2.224 Pennsylvania 748 85. 88.928 \.lashing ton 729 9.239 799.879 Kansas 73 5.,426.838 Nebraska 699 64.963,76.82 Illinois 698 89.948 776.799 Virginia 688 9.52 764. 732 I.Jisconsin 657 9. 73.693 Missouri 583 75.29 776.53 Michigan 573 85.5 674.477 New Mexico 54 5. 3,6.392 Indiana 54 9. 6.392 Oklahoma 462 45.73,25.9 New York 349 84.95 4.899 \.Jest Virginia 33 92.945 326. 78 Arizona 295 2.,475.76 Maryland 22 9.79 224.52 Kentucky 58 89.773 76.47 Nevada 24 5.2 826.32 Massachusetts 2. 2.39 Maine 9 94.783 5.28 North Carolina 6. 6.273 Louisiana 4 94.545.268 Total 35 States 38,22 43.66 87,496 98.459 48 5 States 598 79.25 755.54 Total u.s. 38,8 43.966 88,25. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- American Sheep Industry Market Information Services.

Appendix table 29--U.S. raw wool production, sheep operations, and average raw-wool producton per operation, 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Average Raw wool Sheep raw wool production ~~~~~-------------~~~~~~!~~----~~~~~!~~~-----~~-~~~~~-~~~~~!~~-- Wyoming New Mexico. Arizona Colorado Nevada Montana Utah Texas Idaho South Dakota California North Dakota Kansas Oregon Alaska Nebraska Minnesota Iowa Oklahoma Michigan Virginia Washington Ohio Wisconsin Missouri Other U.S. total, lbs. 8,259 4,3,49 5,724 854 6,542 4 595 6:7 2,666 5 684 7:6,78,496 2,854 6,3 77 3,5 78 77 679 6,87 654 832 5,784 86,97 Number,4,2 45 2, 3 2,8 2, 8,,8 4, 5,5,9 2,4 5, 3 3, 5,2 9,5 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,2 7,3 2,6 3,4 26,3 5,7 Pounds 5 899 3:442 3,3 2,862 2 847 2:336 2,88 2 88 :48,386,32 937 623 57 533 365 349 332 32 38 283 273 256 252 245 / An operation is any place having one or more sheep on hand during the year. National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. 222 823 Appendix table 3--World wool supply and disappearance, 98/8-99/92 Beginning Sheep Production Production Consumption Exports stocks Year population (greasy) (clean) (clean) (greasy) (clean) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million head -----------------------Million lbs.--------------------- 98/8,87 6,268 3,525 3,489 2,75 22 98/82,5 6,334 3,563 3,43 2,624 269 982!83,97 6,349 3,584 3,554 2 73 368 983/84,6 6,462 3,65 3,54 2:66 456 984/85, 6,636 3,88 3,582 2,993 456 985/86,5 6,66 3,83 3,766 2,489 386 986/87,2 6,762 3,92 3,829 2,694 39 987/88,39 6,896 3,995 3,872 2,584 22 988/89 65 7,92 4,4 3,87 2,44 6 989/9 75 7,48 4,325 3,34 2,3 29 99/9,4 7,3 4,248,937 6 99!92 6,572 3,85,585 -- =Not available. / Sheep population during April-June of the second year indicated for most countries. Consumption data are calendar year for the second year indicated for most countries. Stocks are for countries that are major producers and exporters. International Wool Textile Organization in Succcession to the Commonwealth Secretariat. 49

Appendix table 3--Sheep population, wool production~ and wool exports, major producing foreign countries, 984/85-99/9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 984/85 985/86 986/87 987/88 988/89 989/9 99/9 99/92 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million head Sheep numbers: Australia 46 5 53 57 65 73 66 47 Former USSR 43 4 42 4 4 39 35 2 China 95 94 99 3 4 5 3 New Zealand 68 68 64 65 6 58 58 58 Argentina 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 26 Uruguay 2 23 24 25 25 25 25 24 South Africa 23 23 24 24 26 26 25 24 IJor ld,,5,2,39 65 75,58 4 Mill ion lbs., clean Wool production: Australia,53 77,263,3,38,596,548,27 Former USSR 46 443 465 456 474 476 467 47 China 23 96 25 23 245 262 265 267 New Zealand 6 584 577 573 56 54 5 525 Argentina 98 2 98 27 26 96 8 59 Uruguay 6 3 34 34 26 4 39 34 South Africa 32 2 5 9 26 3 39 7 World 3,88 3,83 3,92 3,995 4,4 4,325 4,248 3,85 Wool exports: Australia 876 977,96,79,95 948 86 New Zealand 59 53 57 52 524 46 4 Argentina 96 99 75 83 74 Uruguay 38 54 66 5 44 64 47 South Africa 8 6 5 47 58 65 67 Total,68 732,882 798 796,566,449 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- = Not available. International Wool Textile Organization in Succession to the Commonwealth Secretariat. Appendix table 32--IJorld wool trade by major importing and exporting countries, 984/85-99/9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 984/85 985/86 986/87 987/88 988/89 989/9 99/9 ------------------------------------~----------~----------------~-------------~-------------------------~ Mill ion lbs., greasy Wool exports: Australia,389,54 724,696,59,369,224 New Zealand 7 62 662 67 66 463 45 'Argentina 32 53 32 33 95 2 97 South Africa 29 99 82 76 9 2 6 Uruguay 54 77 94 72 59 85 6 IJor ld 2,99 3,57 3,226 3,62 2,827 2,264 IJoo l imports: Ja=an 46 39 45 385 38 35 337 China 29 336 336 43 23 73 234 France 24 29 26 253 278 29 28 Former USSR 25 254 295 252 283 29 United Kingdom 283 26 36 282 243 95 24 Italy 265 24 269 25 236 263 33 \Jest Germany 7 6 76 67 65 49 Belgium 22 28 4 47 52 9 3 United States 77 22 5 97 7 72 86 Taiwan 89 4 78 99 69 South Korea 69 84 99 83 76 76 86 World 2,78 2,99 3,8 2,953 2,763 2,67 -------~------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- International Wool Textile Organization in Succession to the Commonwealth Secretariat. 5

Appendix table 33--Wool sales, government purchases, and government-owned stocks, major foreign exporters ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Australia New Zealand South Africa ------------------------------ ------------------------------ -------------------------------- AWC NZWB SAWB Auction Purchased ending Auction Purchased ending Auction Purchased ending Year sales by AWC stocks sales by NZWB stocks sales by SAWB stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------, bales Percent ---, bales--- Percent ----, bales---- Percent, bales 98/8 3,637 5. 27,783 7.7 344 693 98/82 3,73 5.4 58 753. 422 76 7 982/83 3,654 24.2 867 735 3.6 286 729 4 2 983/84 3,742 23.,44 736.8 93 685 2 984/85 4,98 7.3 936 ;746 4. 39 669 8 985/86 4,22 9.6 895,633 3.4 24 627 8 986/87 4,34 6.4 346,472 7.2 3 578 2 2 987/88 4,286.8 8,56. 94 592 7 988/89 4,6 5.2 89,46 2. 68 6 6 989/9 5,76 52. 3,65,37 4.6 49 66 3 242 99/9 5,47 35. 4,624,293 8.7 558 69 46 64 Jul-Mar 99/9 3,995 47.8 4,69,48 23. 632 538 46 272 99/92 3,57 4,,53 443 442 6 / 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---=No data available. / Wool remaining unsold. Excluding after sales. International Wool Textile Organization in Succession to the Commonwealth Secretariat. Appendix table 34--International wool prices --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Australia New Zealand South Africa ---------------------------- ---------------------------- -------------- Market Minimum Market Minimum Market Year indicator / floor price indicator / floor price indicator / --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A cents per kg, clean NZ cents per kg, clean SA cents per kg, clean 987/88,3 645 6 476,664 988/89 99 87 672 5 2,93 989/9: July 889 87 666 525 N.S. August 884 87 626 525,84 September 88 87 64 525,92 October 879 87 626 525 842 November 879 87 62 525 :77 December 879 87 595 525 762 January 882 87 585 525 762 February 887 87 587 525 79 March 896 87 586 525 756 April 9 87 57 525 :792 May 888 87 54 525, 774 June 733 2/ 7 57 525 N.S. Season 87 87 589 525 I 79 99/9 July 724 7 493 485 N.S. August 723 7 48 485,493 September 77 7 473 485,467 October 73 7 463 485,397 November 74 7 42 485,367 December 76 7 44 485,374 January 76 7 399 485,372 February 3/ 428 366,49 March 444 363 953 April 464 433 999 May 553 45,38 June 583 397 N.S. Season 628 423,268 99/92 July 553 49 N.S. August 4/ 53 47 87 September 495 39,62 October 472 39,84 November 553 48,294 December 58 399,363 January 576 49,259 February 66 48,38 March 63 47,45 April 58 476,356 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- N.S. = No sales. / Weighted average of all types offered. 2/ The guaranteed minimum floor price was reduced to A 7 cents per kg for the last 4 weeks of 989/9 season. 3/ All sales were suspended for month and minimum floor price was eliminated. 4/ New Australian market indicator beginning August 99. International Wool Textile Organization in Succession to the Commonwealth Secretariat. 5

Appendix table 35--World textile fiber production Rayon and Noncellulosic Wool Hemp Total Year acetate fibers Cotton (clean) Silk Flax (soft) fibers -~------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------Million lbs.--------------------------------- 98 98 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 99 99 747 7,64 6,493 6,457 6,65 6,462 6,34 6,229 6,36 6,34 6,274 -- =Not available. 23,95 23,869 22,368 24,48 26,23 27,533 28,499 3,293 3 732 32:637 32,78 3,95 3,352 32,69 32,885 33,32 36,927 39,732 4,365 4,9 458 4,84 44 3,525 3,563 3,584 3,65 3,88 3,83 3,92 3,995 4,4 4,323 4,248 3,85 23 26 2 2 23 5 39 39 6 6 65,389,347,437 733,52,642,65 2,8 2,39 795,83 International Wool Textile Organization in Succession to the Commonwealth Secretariat, and USDA. 569 492 459 46 443 48 485 474 465 47 472 67,4 7,632 67,29 68,457 8,252 78,857 75,38 82,333 85,93 83,82 86,876 Appendix table 36--Raw-cotton-equivalent of u.s. imports for consumption of cotton-containing textile manufactures, 989-92 / Year and month 989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yarn, thread, cordage, and rope 8,353 7,39 7,93 6,763 7383 8,54 743 7,965 6 67 :445 8,624 5933 Yarn, thread, and fabric Apparel Headgear Broadwoven fabric % 44,52 4,347 32,429 3,359 3,65 36,26 35,26 38,638 29,34 47 73 38:44 32653 Broadwoven fabric blends 8,82 6,749 7,822 9,339 9 97 :344 74 3,874,353 393,475,376 Total 93,952 436,3 23,3 99: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 99: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 7,43 5,5 6,253 5,684 5,62 6,224 6,9 6,78 5,38 7,455 4,653 5,29 47,386 32,948 27,486 26,239 35,32 3,85 39,45 42,434 35,236 43,98 38,467 39,495 3,6 9,96 8,76 9 275 :93 9,3 9 55 :658 9 44 :695 9,24 8,399 73,4 438,834 7,277 3,997 3,358 4,5 3,32 6,7 8,39 8,856,978 8 53 :233 8,5 9,423 49,675 35,35 34,24 39,727 4,978 44,25 43,777 45,563 39,67 46,394 4,25 49,53 86,79 59,2 9,826 7,493 8 47 :348,93,9 767,269,35 2,842,83,3 25,89 Narrow, industrial, and Knit misc. fabric fabric Total Tops,224 69 36,339,427,42,297,64,283,442,239,223 2,23,888 2,9 765 2,68 2,39 2,35 2,39,66,928,995,925 65' 3 57,93 5,4 49,565 5,34 58,839 57,765 64,39 49,254 75639 6775 52,9, lbs. 49,685 46,299 46,394 38378 47,383 55,724 62,984 65' 95 54' 83 62,25 52,4 47,72 36,947 39,325 38,69 32,86 4 73 49:22 54,827 52,93 42,785 48,829 42,7 37' 955 Suits and coats 7,723 5,493 4,96 3,788 7,458,63 4,495 6,977,458,3 8,382 7,294 Bottoms sweaters 6,4 3,582 2,6 3,82 5,282 6,84 8,9 7,576 6,39 9,78 7,99 4,54 Other apparel 3472 9,522 9,253 7,656 7843 994 9797 79 7658 7 664 :45 Total 3,93 4,22,43 85,9 8,39 32,353 5,338 52,448 22,636 38,73 8,39 7,646 5,796 24,44 693,395 628,76 55,7 8,78 777 852 434485 474,97,62 328 538,52 436 65 666 86,438,32, 776 787 76 875,987 2,5,822,63 647,895,857,664 7,73 5438 44 737 4(4 55,73 49,983 58,764 63,9 53,26 65832 55629 55,99 7,23 2,834 668,89 476,3 26 346 22 2,53 2,223 2,344 235 2,83 '98 2,45,669,5,85 73, 79,654,633 78 772 2,79 796 759 66642 48986 49,423 56454 6,72 67,86 68,255 7872 62,385 75378 62,782 74474 23545 2,827 765,458 66425 58,76 53,979 5,544 5347 693 73 5 7:348 54534 63,26 49,267 43843 48,77 52686 4633 37672 43 I 39 5828 55772 44784 344 3869 3463 3229 94 584 384 458 8 35 3:787 525 622 36 9457 8 73 s:s83 494 2677 444 2327 4437 642 7858 8526 6 989 :388 797 3688 698647 526 7 6862 67393 58 52336 47,928 5229 62,357 7875 6972 69842 7854 6282 6629 43849 4378 3564 33,343 39362 44,455 57,458 43,93 4,37 5494 45599 4796 7,939 5537 399 3285 6445 9,426 36 4 738 :444 45 892 738 437 22,457 52 3977 6,428 8562 7785 8 288 2:348 8274 3585 2437 9986 323 8597 8949 924 8837 8543 8,99 8,66 8337 7728 9565 736 :57 23 96 9453 9776 I 528 8855 93 9886 9 5 :75 4,633 29366 5,593 3298 8,299 4 I 97 6,823 4944 4,484 3,68 79 9297 5699 3554 7642 279 95 84 :528 32,442 69223 45,2 3964 63674 35,95 3,866 7624 52365 33 68473 2385 577,348 992: Jan 92 48,92 576 2223,63 78683 79,75 59,988 8,62 375 736 68,57 2,39 Feb 6,32 4,33 3,34,86 94 63 496 7679 5375 5625 2,468,578 46,764 559 Mar 9 44,55 4,996 2,433 2,77 72762 75 62 5 966 5,786,572 8,586 42,52 2,~~. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. 52 Total 2,335 9 28 87 32,364 525, 779 98 992 5,29 6,35 95,369 266 252 6 8 4,57 773 62 87 384 '856 985 I 82 344,4 I 67 I 89 I 57 I 93 I 26, 59 I 522 5,43