Sustainable Energy Roadmap & Implementation Plan (SERIP) Alexander Ochs Senior Director of Climate and Energy

Sustainable Energy Roadmap & Implementation Plan (SERIP) Alexander Ochs Senior Director of Climate and Energy

Goal An energy system that is socially, economically and environmentally sustainable Our role Provide the supporting research Help government define goals, design strategy Advise on implementation

Theory of change Overall strategy and individual recommendations only successful if they get buy-in from key drivers of change Decision-makers in policy, business (entrepreneurs, project developer) and finance (investors, banks, international funders) Media, NGOs and civil society as important communicators and pressure groups Necessitates a paradigm shift Requires that we demonstrate that the outcome is in the clear interest of the people; allow for greater prosperity, security, integrity, happiness the pathway is technically, socially, economically, politically and financially feasible

Finance & Policy Assessment Gap Analysis International Support & Cooperation Domestic Reform and Capacity Building Technical Assessment Energy Efficiency Potential Renewable Energy Potential Grid Solutions Policy Recommendations Vision & Long-Term Goals Concrete Policy Mechanisms Governance & Administrative Efficiency Socio- Economic Analysis Levelized Cost of Energy + Energy Scenarios Macroeconomic Effects Sustainable Energy Roadmap & Implementation Plan

Policy Cost Barriers Knowledge Barriers Finance Barriers Public Accep tance Political Cost Barriers Systemic Vision Policy and Regulatory Cost Finance Political Entrenched Interest Infrastructure Innovation Public Acceptance Knowledge Trade Cost of capital Barriers Unavailability of public financing Unavailability of private loans Unmanageability of small projects for development banks and international funders High upfront capital costs Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Financial Unaccounted external investment benefits and costs barriers and enablers Market and currency fluctuations Misplaced incentives Policy Analysis and Recommendations Barriers Energy sector and industry vision Misplaced incentives, policy/regulatory uncertainty High LCOE, unaccounted costs, market and currency fluctuations Cost of capital, unavailability of financing, unmanageability for banks, upfront costs Politicization of key issues, short-term priorities Monopoly/vertical integration, anti-re lobby Unsuitability of infrastructure, high cost of development, intermittency/storage Patent protection, lack of R&D NIMBY, cost of RE to consumers Knowledge gap, capacity building, deficient and uncoordinated dissemination of information Tariffs, trade disputes Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication Long-term Vision Policies (policy toolkit) Effective Governance and Administration Financial Analysis and Recommendations Enablers National renewable energy targets Regulatory policies (Feed-in tariff, RPS, etc.) Fiscal incentives (tax incentives, subsidies, grants) Public financing (public investment, loans, grants) Energy market regulations Trade agreements Streamlining processes (planning, permitting) Enablers RE support policies Climate Policies Energy Market Regulation Int l. Cooperation Vision Concrete Policies Gov. & Admin. Technical Assessments Knowledge Barriers Knowledge gap Worldwatch provides the information that important decision-makers at national, sub-national, and international levels often lack in terms of technical knowledge Deficient dissemination of information Worldwatch disseminates gathered knowledge to stakeholders, enabling them more effectively and efficiently develop renewable energy projects Capacity building Technical assessments can be used to more smartly develop the capacity needed to implement renewable energy projects International knowledge sharing Results of technical assessments are available to a wide range of international stakeholders in the public and private sectors Socio-economic Assessments Socio-economic Impacts of RE Energy Priorities Economic Priorities Social Development Environmenta l Integrity Security Industry development Jobs Energy access Health Education Redistribution/Equality Climate change Natural resources REMOVE Barriers Unaccounted external benefits and costs Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Political challenges Public opposition Knowledge gap Capacity development

Technical Assessment Energy Efficiency Potential Renewable Energy Potential Grid Solutions Sustainable Energy Roadmap & Implementation Plan

Grid Assessments: DR One of the highest rates of distribution losses in the world Electricity instability costs the country $1 billion every year (3.4% GDP) Population resorts to inefficient small-scale fossil fuel-based units

RE Maps

The Need for Integrated Planning Seasonal Variation Daily (Diurnal) Variation

Selected Highlights Technical Assessments Great similarities & divergences among countries All Caribbean countries can be powered 100% carbon-free Enormous wind, solar, biomass, hydro potentials Enormous potential for energy efficiency Need to build and/or renovate grid

Sustainable Energy Roadmap & Implementation Plan Socio-Economic Analysis Levelized Cost of Energy + Energy Scenarios Macroeconomic Effects

USc/kWh The Need for LCOE+ Modeling societal costs and benefits Energy pricing does not reflect the true costs of different generation options LCOE+ modeling adds societal costs and benefits on top of generation costs to help governments make more informed choices in the energy sector 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 LCOE+ Jamaica Generation Pollution Climate Change

USc/kWh LCOE No External Costs 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Oil Steam Oil Combustion Turbine Oil Combined Cycle Diesel Generator Natural Gas Combined Cycle Petcoke Cogeneration Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse Generation

USc/kWh LCOE+ with Low External Cost Assumptions 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Oil Steam Oil Combustion Turbine Oil Combined Cycle Diesel Generator Natural Gas Combined Cycle Petcoke Cogeneration Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse Generation Pollution Climate Change

Usc/kWh 45 LCOE Projection 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Oil Steam Oil Combustion Turbine Oil Combined Cycle Diesel Generator Natural Gas Combined Cycle Petcoke Cogeneration Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 GWh Generation Scenarios based on 12000 Reference Case Demand Growth 10000 Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy 30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Petroleum Petcoke NG Renewables

USD (In Millions) Cumulative Costs & Savings for Electricity 14000 Generation Scenarios: 2012-2030 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Total Investment Required to Meet Annual Demand Total Cost of Electricity Generation Total Savings Over Business As Usual Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy 30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy

Job Creation Case Study: Direct Jobs in the Solar PV Value Chain Processing of raw materials Manufacture of cells and modules Installation and plant construction Operation and maintenance Decommissioning Construction workers Engineers Engineers Project development analysis Technicians Materials recyclers Technicians Technicians Wholesalers Maintenance staff Solar PV system designers and installers Construction workers Meteorologists

Jobs Creation Estimates per MW for Various Energy Sources over Lifetime of Facilities Energy technology Construction, installation, and Operations & maintenance Total jobs manufacturing jobs and fuel processing jobs Solar PV 0.29 1.48 0.12 1.00 0.41 2.48 Geothermal 0.10 0.44 1.67 1.79 1.77 2.23 Biomass 0.11 0.21 1.21 1.53 1.32 1.74 Solar Thermal 0.18 0.41 0.22 1.00 0.40 1.41 Small Hydro 0.14 1.14 1.28 Nuclear 0.38 0.70 1.08 Wind 0.10 0.44 0.14 0.40 0.24 0.84 Coal 0.21 0.59 0.80 Natural Gas 0.03 0.77 0.80

kg CO 2 e Emissions 1E+10 9E+09 8E+09 7E+09 6E+09 5E+09 4E+09 3E+09 2E+09 1E+09 0 2012 Business As Usual 2015 2020 20% Renewable Energy 2025 2030 30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy

Selected Highlights Socio-economic Assessments Islands pay astronomical price for fossil fuel dependency Petroleum high share of electricity produced (Jamaica 2009 : 96%) All imported (J: Oil import US$2.2 bn/2011, 14.9% of GDP; CARICOM: 23%) Sustainable energy solutions lead to major cost savings & social benefits

Sustainable Energy Roadmap & Implementation Plan Finance & Policy Assessment Gap Analysis International Support & Cooperation Domestic Reform and Capacity Building

Sustainable Energy Finance Gap analysis Lack of finance Access to finance, cost of finance etc. International sources and cooperation International climate funds; CDM Multi-lateral development banks Bilateral aid Domestic reform and capacity building Business and banking sector

Policy Cost Barriers Finance Barriers Financial Barriers and Enablers Barriers Enablers Cost of capital Unavailability of public financing National renewable energy targets Vision Unavailability of private loans Unmanageability of small projects for development banks and international funders High upfront capital costs Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Unaccounted external benefits and costs Regulatory policies (Feed-in tariff, RPS, etc.) Fiscal incentives (tax incentives, subsidies, grants) Public financing (public investment, loans, grants) Energy market regulations Concrete Policies Market and currency fluctuations Misplaced incentives Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication Trade agreements Streamlining processes (planning, permitting) Gov. & Admin.

Policy Recommendations Vision & Long-Term Goals Concrete Policy Mechanisms Governance & Administrative Efficiency Sustainable Energy Roadmap & Implementation Plan

Policy Recommendation Vision & goals: Long, loud & legal Concrete policy mechanisms EE, RE, grid reliability Market mechanisms, regulatory policies, incentive systems, standards, education Administrative efficiency & governance Institutional capacity & interplay; mainstreaming MRV; transparency; stakeholder participation Working bureaucracy

Administrative Procedure to Obtain a RE Concession in the Dominican Republic Application for a provisional concession at CNE CNE publishes the concession request in a national newspaper CNE publishes the granting of the provisional concession Application to Electricity Supervision Board (SIE) CNE includes the applicant in the Special Regime Production Facilities Register Granting of provisional concession Application for a permanent concession Environmental Impact Study (SEMARENA) Resource and production analysis by a company authorized by CNE Grid study CDEEE guarantee of PPA Guarantee CNE receives the reports of the SIE and SEMARENA Definitive concession

Selected Highlights Policy Assessments Long-term vision often exists, can be more ambitious Policies & measures exist but often do not work to their full potential; additional policies needed Governance & administration need to be strengthened; capacity-building, mainstreaming, simplification

Contact: aochs@worldwatch.org