EUROPEAN FOREST PRODUCT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS FOREST PRODUCTS ANNUAL MARKET REVIEW 212-213 METSÄ 213 1 December 213, Rovaniemi Antti Koskinen
CONTENTS Key findings of the Forest Products Annual Market View 1. Sawn hardwood 2. Sawn softwood 3. Plywood 4. OSB 5. Particleboard 6. MDF 7. Graphic papers 8. Packaging papers 9. Mechanical pulp 1. Chemical pulp 11. Industrial roundwood METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 2
EUROPE SAWN SOFTWOOD 211-212: -4%, -3% 12 1 8 6 4 2 Million m 3 Weak construction activity Overcapacity Overseas exports stable Price and availability of sawlogs METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 3
EUROPE SAWN HARDWOOD 211-212: +1%, -3% 2 Million m 3 Hardwood log overseas exports 16 12 8 4 Remanufacturing moving to low cost countries Substitution by lower cost materials Consumer preferences EUTR METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 4
EUROPE PLYWOOD 211-212: -8%, -7% 1 9 8 Million m 3 Price and availability of plylogs in Western and Central Europe 7 6 Imports from China, Brazil, Chile 5 4 Tropical plywood declining 3 Weak construction activity 2 1 Bankruptcies and closures in the West Russian production growing and industry investing METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 5
EUROPE OSB 211-212: 4%, -1% 6 5 4 3 2 1 Million m 3 OSB still in growth stage Substituting other products, mainly plywood, sawn softwood and particleboard New capacity coming to Russia and Belarus Eastern Europe growing METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 6
EUROPE PARTICLEBOARD 211-212: -3%, -4% 5 4 3 Million m 3 Southern and Western Europe declining consumption Competition on wood raw material with bio energy industry 2 1 Industry consolidating, mill closures e.g. in the UK, Iberia and France Eastern Europe growing New capacity coming to Russia and Belarus METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 7
EUROPE MDF 211-212: -1%, 9% 16 Million m 3 Southern and Western Europe stagnant 12 8 Industry consolidating, capacity closures in the West and South Eastern Europe growing 4 New capacity coming to Russia and Belarus METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 8
EUROPE GRAPHIC PAPER 211-212: -4%, -8% 5 4 3 2 1 Million t 27 28 29 21 211 212 Tumbling demand especially in Western Europe Digital transition and changing consumer habits Weakening export opportunities Overcapacity Prices remained on low level METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 9
EUROPE PACKAGING PAPER 211-212: %, -2% 5 4 Million t Stable demand Continued weakness of general economy and sluggish industrial production 3 2 1 27 28 29 21 211 212 Fibre packaging considered as sustainable option Sourcing RCP becoming a challenge Relatively good market balance in Europe excl. Russia Prices on fairly good level METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 1
EUROPE MECHANICAL WOOD PULP 211-212: -3%, -3% Thousands 16 12 8 Million t declining due to graphic paper meltdown Largely integrated production limited market pulp volumes Stable consumption in packaging sector 4 27 28 29 21 211 212 METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 11
EUROPE CHEMICAL WOOD PULP 211-212: 1%, -1% 4 3 2 1 Million t Declining woodfree paper consumption and production Overseas export opportunities BSKP in China in particular Global commodity Global pricing Current prices close to 5-year average 27 28 29 21 211 212 METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 12
EUROPE INDUSTRIAL ROUNDWOOD 211-212: -1%, -1% 5 Million m 3 4 3 2 1 27 28 29 21 211 212 METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 13
EUROPE MARKET SUMMARY Sawnwood, plywood and particleboard are suffering from the uncertainty in the European economies and weak construction activity OSB and MDF markets have developed more positively Markets in Eastern Europe developing more positively compared to west Graphic papers suffering from structural changes Packaging papers relatively stable renewable packaging Pulp and roundwood markets follow the product market developments Industry structure differs between the industries, but structural changes are needed. METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 14
THANK YOU! CONTACT: ANTTI KOSKINEN SENIOR CONSULTANT MAIL: ANTTI.KOSKINEN@POYRY.COM PHONE: +358 5 543 5262 METSÄ 213 - ANTTI KOSKINEN 15